City Murder Rates

[Courier]

Originally Posted by Oliver May

I was thinking of just Canada and the USA, obviously.

You could be right. I should have said Mexico or the USA. Though, even the mass shooting in Mexico at the nightclub on Jan. 16 only killed 5, like the Fort Lauderdale airport shooting.

Most mass killing in Mexico is not by mass shooting, though. The cartels have a different preferred method of murder.

Here is a link in English for the Acapulco shooting. Cannot find any news story in English that lists more than 6 dead, though.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/mexico-...ting-1.3922031

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/gunmen-s...ulco-1.3227894

I assume any mass shooting with more than 6 dead will be covered in N. America.

You are certainly correct if by "North America" you mean the U. S. and Canada. If you include Mexico, certainly not.

[Flyers2001]

As of 1/29/17, Philadelphia is at 29. The most since 2012 during same time period.

[Derek]

Portland did not record any homicides in the month of January. Gresham, a suburb directly east of Portland, recorded 1 homicide. Vancouver, WA, a suburb directly north of Portland, recorded 2 homicides, including a murder-suicide.

[tech12]

SJ is at 3 now, after a fatal shooting.

Oakland is still at 2, and SF is still at 6.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Los Angeles as of Jan 28th, 2017

2017 - 25
2016 - 23
2015 - 18

Total violent crime down 5.4% however.

[TimCity2000]

Birmingham, AL at 6

[James Bond Agent 007]

13 in KC in Jan, same as last year.

[Ant131531]

Atlanta is already at 11...2 more than last year....looks like murder rates are continuing to rise here...

Say what you want about Trump, but he's right in that murder rates have been rising over the last few years or so. Could just be a cyclical rise that will fall again in a couple of years or it could be a start of a long trend of increasing murder rates back to the 90s or even the 80s.

Last time we had a "law and order" president, murder rates were at a historical peak so I doubt Trump being in office will do anything.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Say what you want about Trump, but he's right in that murder rates have been rising over the last few years or so.

No, Trump is actually lying about homicides, like he lies about everything else.

Homicide rates in the U.S. have plummeted in recent years, and are near modern historic lows.

[tablemtn]

The US murder rate bottomed out in 2014 and appears to have risen sharply in the two succeeding years. It jumped by nearly 10% between 2014 and 2015 according to the FBI's Uniform Crime Report released last October, while 538's preliminary survey of murders in 2016 also shows a sharp estimated rise from 2015.

2014 to 2015 was the biggest year-on-year percentage increase in about half-a-century, which caused some alarm. In other words, the rate at which murders jumped in one year was unequaled since the mid/late-60's.

The magnitude of 2016's rise relative to 2015 won't be made official until the 2016 UCR is released sometime this fall. But considering that forensics and trauma medicine continue to improve each year - and considering that the US's median age is rising, which is associated with lower murder rates - this kind of sharp, two-year rise definitely shouldn't be dismissed as "nothing."

In raw numbers, we may be talking about over 3,000 additional murders above where we'd be had we simply maintained the 2014 rate.

[Oliver May]

Originally Posted by tablemtn

The magnitude of 2016's rise relative to 2015 won't be made official until the 2016 UCR is released sometime this fall. But considering that forensics and trauma medicine continue to improve each year - and considering that the US's median age is rising, which is associated with lower murder rates - this kind of sharp, two-year rise definitely shouldn't be dismissed as "nothing."

In raw numbers, we may be talking about over 3,000 additional murders above where we'd be had we simply maintained the 2014 rate.

But even raw numbers can distort reality. That just indicates how low the numbers had got by 2014 compared to say, 1974.

Consider a $1,000 investment that loses 50% over 20 years and is thus $500, it rises 20% over two years to reach $600. That is a big increase in percentage terms but it is still a long way from the original number.

Here are some numbers :

NYC had 2,245 murders in 1990. NYC had 352 murders in 2015.
Oakland had its highest murder count in 1992, with 175 murders. Last year, Oakland had 89 murders.
San Francisco saw its highest murder count in 1993, with 129 murders. Last year the city had 52 murders.

Further info is available here:
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/07/due...n-crime-trend/
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

The number of homicides reached an all-time high of 24,703 homicides in 1991 then fell rapidly to 15,522 homicides by 1999.

Between 1999 and 2008, the number of homicides remained relatively constant, ranging from a low of 15,552 homicides in 1999 to a high of 17,030 homicides in 2006. These homicide numbers were still below those reported in the 1970s, when the number of reported homicides first rose above 20,000 (reaching 20,710 in 1974).

So, taking your logic, if murders had just stayed at 1974 raw numbers, the USA would have had 6,500 more murders in 2016 instead of 3,000.

Raw numbers are also problematic because you are looking at calendar years which can distort the fact that murders are by their nature randomly distributed in time and location.

So, yes it is nothing compared to what it could have been. And Donald is often lying even when he is telling the truth.

[tablemtn]

That was actually the same attitude people had in the mid-60's. You can look up editorials and "letters to the editor" in old newspapers via Google's news archive. There was an attitude of "well, crime is a bit worse, but it's nothing like the bad old days in the '30's! Crime fell a lot since then; maybe this is just a blip."

But it wasn't; murder didn't reach early-60's levels (4.6 per 100,000 in 1962 and 1963) again until 2013 - 50 full years later.

There's no reason to repeat that cycle again. We have much sharper statistical tools now to diagnose where and when violent crime is occurring. It's better to "overreact" and snuff out an incipient rise in crime than to relax and let it take its own course.

[Jonesy55]

I do like the way most US cities seem to publish real-time data on homicides, here in the UK you generally need to wait until several months later until the official figures come out. There's no way for example for me to know how many homicides there have been in my police area in January 2017 unless I scour all local media reports and add them up myself.

[Emprise du Lion]

Chicago had 57 homicides in January. That's the same number it had in January 2016. Looks like we're in for another rough year.

[softee]

Toronto at 6.

[tablemtn]

Vancouver has two murders after a stabbing in Stanley Park, northwest of downtown:

Person of interest in custody after man fatally stabbed in Stanley Park

[tech12]

Originally Posted by Jonesy55

I do like the way most US cities seem to publish real-time data on homicides, here in the UK you generally need to wait until several months later until the official figures come out. There's no way for example for me to know how many homicides there have been in my police area in January 2017 unless I scour all local media reports and add them up myself.

A lot of them actually don't regularly release stats to the public.

That's how it for San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, for example. But local media keeps track of most murders, so you can get pretty accurate numbers for the entire region if you check the right sources on a regular basis.

[Flyers2001]

As of 2/1/17, Philadelphia is at 30. The most since 2012 during same time period.

Last January Philly had 19. Quite the increase, let's hope its the exception not the rule.

[Darkoshvilli]

Montreal is officially at 3 but in actuality only 1 murder happened so far. The other two happened last year but they just opened those cases now so they count them as 2017 murders.

[tech12]

Oakland is at 3, after a fatal shooting in east Oakland.

And it looks like San Jose is now at 4, after a domestic violence incident.