Quote:
Originally Posted by ASU Diablo
And I don't understand why you think the economy will bounce back like if nothing happened within days of COVID-19 being contained (and who knows by when)? All the economic experts are pretty much saying this will trigger another recession plus the latest report from Goldman Sachs states GDP will shrink by 34% in Q2 plus unemployment will rise to 15% in the summer. They do note a surge in GDP in Q3 and hopefully that's accurate. Apart from the items exit2lef listed above, the economy will be shit and people will be too broke to fly. I agree that 2023 may be too far out but hopefully late 2021/early 2022 at the latest.
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Because this is not a generalized lack of demand from an over-inflated asset like homes or some liquidity crisis.
This is artificially blocked demand. The overall economic forces from a month ago didn't change, we purposely are blocking them. This is closer to a wartime shock than it is a "depression". Think 1940 or 2001 not 1929 or 2008.
The biggest issue is small restaurants and retailer not being able to make it through but we'll see. The vast majority of the layoffs for now are restaurant and retail workers (I know not all but most). Unless this drags on under full shut down for months and months we should bounce back most of the "losses" fairly quickly. and by quickly I mean within the year.
If we can start opening up again by the summer then we might have a very sharp decline in 2nd q but then growth after that which would technically not even count as a recession.
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