July 1, 2020 Population Estimates - United States of America

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Shawn

How do you feel about police unions?

The exact same.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by craigs

The birth statistics are almost as shocking as the death stats--these are far, far lower totals than we ever saw at any time during the so-called "baby bust" of the 1970s.

This is the same pattern we have seen in industrial societies all over the world. It happened in East Asia and Europe about 30 or 40 years ago, in Much of the BRICS and Middle east 20 years ago and is happening in America now.

Most of the "developed world" is about to enter a demographic death spiral like Japan. I think it has largely to do with expensive urban living and lack of religiosity (at least of the traditional "have lots of kids" variety). Kids are very expensive to try to raise in a tiny apartment in a city especially with little social pressure to do so.

North America will largely be spared of this for at least another generation unless something drastically changes. Notably between immigration, higher religious rates and more space to live less expensively the USA has yet to be hit so drastically by these global trends.

However we are probably going to end up with these same demographic collapses towards the end of the century (2070's maybe) assuming birthrates dont rise in the future.

This is an illuminating website:https://www.populationpyramid.net/europe/2020/

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Most of the "developed world" is about to enter a demographic death spiral like Japan. I think it has largely to do with expensive urban living and lack of religiosity (at least of the traditional "have lots of kids" variety). Kids are very expensive to try to raise in a tiny apartment in a city especially with little social pressure to do so.

All that plus:
-women entering the workforce during their prime baby making years
-social stigma attached to large families
-extended adolescence, delayed adulthood in children
-the pet industry

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by badrunner

All that plus:
-women entering the workforce during their prime baby making years
-social stigma attached to large families
-extended adolescence, delayed adulthood in children
-the pet industry

I would argue this all arises out of the expensive and cramped living conditions of modern spaces.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by badrunner

All that plus:
-women entering the workforce during their prime baby making years
-social stigma attached to large families
-extended adolescence, delayed adulthood in children
-the pet industry

yeah, lots of different factors at play here, but i think extended adolescence and women trying to career build during their prime baby-making years are the two biggies.

i myself almost missed the window to have kids because i kept pushing off settling down and getting hitched until i was in my mid-30s.

we snuck in two kids just in the nick of time, but it was close, and it threw my wife's career into limbo for a while while she dealt with back-to-back pregnancies 18 months apart while attempting to work full-time.

those are almost certainly bigger factors than "expensive urban living" given the fact that the OVERWHELMING majority of americans don't live in expensive urban places.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Without a strong rebound of immigration (1.5 million/year), the US will start to have consistent negative natural growth by the late 2020's.

But there will be a strong rebound of immigration. Beginning right now.

[iheartthed]

I'm struggling to think of any parent that I know younger than 60 with more than 2 kids, even though the average rate of natural replacement is a little over 2 kids. My parents are Baby Boomers, and the youngest Boomers are about to turn 60 in 3 years. So the natural rate of replacement probably hasn't been enough for the country to grow over my entire lifetime (born in the early 80s).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm struggling to think of any parent that I know younger than 60 with more than 2 kids, even though the average rate of natural replacement is a little over 2 kids.

3 kids isn't that uncommon here in chicagoland.

certainly a minority, but anecdotally i have a sister, two cousins, a couple friends, and several neighbors who have 3 kids.

but i only know 1 peer with 4 kids. he's a childhood friend of mine who now lives way the hell out in one of those "vinyl boxes on the cornfield".

but yes, the vast majority of current parents that i know only have two kids, including me and my wife.

we probably would've gone for a 3rd had we had more time, but my wife was already 36 when our 2nd was born, and with two happy and healthy babies, we didn't feel like rolling any more dice.

additionally, we would've needed to buy a bigger car (minivan or 3rd row SUV, blech!)


but what's really moving the needle more than the "two and through" crowd is the large number of friends i have in their mid to upper 40s who will almost certainly never produce any children.

[TonyTone]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I would argue this all arises out of the expensive and cramped living conditions of modern spaces.

People used to have 4-6 Kids including 2 Adults in a 3 Bedroom Rowhome in the city, I don't think space is the issue. Money more so and many Homes/Apts are bigger now a days.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

3 isn't that uncommon here in chicagoland.

i have a sister, two cousins, a couple friends, and several neighbors who have 3 kids.

but i only know 1 peer with 4 kids. he's a childhood friend of mine and lives way the hell out in one of those "vinyl boxes on the cornfield".

Yeah, to clarify, I do know some families with 3 kids, but that is more of the exception than the rule. My sister has 3 kids, but only because her last pregnancy resulted in twins.

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm struggling to think of any parent that I know younger than 60 with more than 2 kids, even though the average rate of natural replacement is a little over 2 kids.

Yeah same here. These days large families are seen as some kind of a freakshow. Something that belongs on reality TV.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm struggling to think of any parent that I know younger than 60 with more than 2 kids, even though the average rate of natural replacement is a little over 2 kids. My parents are Baby Boomers, and the youngest Boomers are about to turn 60 in 3 years. So the natural rate of replacement probably hasn't been enough for the country to grow over my entire lifetime (born in the early 80s).

I am 30 and I grew up with many many people that have 3 or 4+ kids

Sure 2 is the VAST majority of families but 3+ kids is more common than 1 kid in my experience.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Yeah same here. These days large families are seen as some kind of a freakshow. Something that belongs on reality TV.

Or in suburban Salt Lake City

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by TonyTone

People used to have 4-6 Kids including 2 Adults in a 3 Bedroom Rowhome in the city, I don't think space is the issue. Money more so and many Homes/Apts are bigger now a days.

Except you are forgetting that there was massive social, cultural and religious pressure to have kids + no birth control until the last 50 years effectively

I agree that modern society is generally just spoiled relative to the struggles in the past but if we had the same sort of general societal pressure to reproduce as people in the 1800's youd see massive birth rates right now.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by BG918

Or in suburban Salt Lake City

Or just... anywhere outside of city cores?

I know that this place if full of Urbano-philes who rarely leave their 2 square miles of city center while they opine on bizzare niche issues like trans-racial-handicapped pan latinx kickball acceptance and Urban walkability but the average living condition out beyond the urban bubble is still fairly standard.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Or just... anywhere outside of city cores?

I know that this place if full of Urbano-philes who rarely leave their 2 square miles of city center while they opine on bizzare niche issues like trans-racial-handicapped pan latinx kickball acceptance and Urban walkability but the average living condition out beyond the urban bubble is still fairly standard.

If this was true then we wouldn't have a shrinking population, since most people don't live in inner-cities.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Keep in mind those are nine-month figures and the annual number will stay ahead of the 70s birth numbers.

The per capita rate however is lower than ever, even lower than the Great Depression. The trend line is markedly down as well. The last time two years had back to back increases in births was 2006 and 2007.

Ah, I missed that it was only 9 months--thank you.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm struggling to think of any parent that I know younger than 60 with more than 2 kids, even though the average rate of natural replacement is a little over 2 kids. My parents are Baby Boomers, and the youngest Boomers are about to turn 60 in 3 years. So the natural rate of replacement probably hasn't been enough for the country to grow over my entire lifetime (born in the early 80s).

Anecdotally, my younger sister has three kids, because of the twins.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If this was true then we wouldn't have a shrinking population, since most people don't live in inner-cities.

We dont have a shrinking population.... (Yet)

Most of Europe will begin shrinking starting this year based on current stats.

Places like Korea and Russia & Japan are already shrinking or totally stagnant

Even china will begin to shrink long before North American populations based on current trends

Fun fact: all of those countries besides Russia (Fact check me on that actually) are more urbanized than the USA.

For a Developed country the USA is positively rural by comparison to any advanced economy.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Obadno

We dont have a shrinking population.... (Yet)

Most of Europe will begin shrinking starting this year based on current stats.

Places like Korea and Russia & Japan are already shrinking or totally stagnant

Even china will begin to shrink long before North American populations based on current trends

Fun fact: all of those countries besides Russia (Fact check me on that actually) are more urbanized than the USA.

For a Developed country the USA is positively rural by comparison to any advanced economy.

We wouldn't be at risk of a shrinking population.

[Shawn]

My old social circle and cousins back in Boston, Providence and their suburbs are all Xennials through mid Millennials. 30-40 for age range. Almost all are parents, but I can only think of two families with more than two kids. One has four, all girls. Sorry, Kyle. I don't think a son is in the cards.

Among my Japanese friends, family, and colleagues, about half have kids. It's about a 50/50 split between one and two kids. No one has three or more.