The Titan Arum Blooms: Alberta Election on May 5th

[ZeDgE]

Originally Posted by Yegger

I agree the university and public sector play a role, but using that overall seems like long hanging fruit, often steeped in some rhetoric trying to make Edmonton seem like communists.

Much like the rhetoric from up north that Calglarians are a bunch of red neck oil chugging cowboys. Its a two way street.

Anyway, I think this election will end with the same result for the most part. NDP and Liberals split their vote, people afraid of the WR will vote PC again. Despite whats being said. Could be a few upsets here and there but thats it.

Originally Posted by lio45

Woot woot for the Wildrose!

But will many potential WR voters change their mind when the time comes to put their Xes on their ballots? That's the big unknown.

This.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Yegger

This sounds like my reform era parents in Calgary. I was specifically asking because that is what I heard all the time growing up and I don't buy it. I agree the university and public sector play a role, but using that overall seems like long hanging fruit, often steeped in some rhetoric trying to make Edmonton seem like communists.

Originally Posted by ZeDgE

Much like the rhetoric from up north that Calglarians are a bunch of red neck oil chugging cowboys. Its a two way street.

Oh god, this again?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Trans Canada

This is a gross oversimplification. It's easy for Calgarians to blame it on the self-interest of lazy government workers, but there really aren't all that many more in Edmonton than there are in Calgary.


http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopmen...abourForce.pdf

The more interesting numbers would be what percentage of income is sourced from government either through transfers or employment. The stats you presented don't answer that.

I'm originally from Edmonton BTW and did three degrees at U of A.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

It is true, Edmonton is left of Calgary and the rest of the province.

You will also find that northern Alberta as a whole is less conservative than southern Alberta (if you look at a 2012 election map you can see it very clearly, with the north going PC and the south Wildrose. Northern rural areas were historically more receptive to Liberals and New Democrats as well).

This is an article I find really interesting and quite a good history behind it. It's definitely a distinction that remains lost on most from outside the province.

http://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2014...-two-albertas/

What a fascinating article. I had no idea of the history there. Who knew Fort Chip was the first settlement in Alberta. Also wasn't aware of the Blackfoot / Cree divide. Very true about Calgary's Scottish character. My great grandfather was a Scottish immigrant and my grandfather was one of the last cowboys, providing pit ponies for the coal mine in East Coulee south of Drumheller. I am in fact 3/4's French ( my mother is from Quebec and my grandmother on my father's side was French from Ontario) but the Scottish last name persists and the Scottish influence is still strong. Much like the city of Calgary with its new immigrants.

[Trans Canada]

Originally Posted by Doug

The more interesting numbers would be what percentage of income is sourced from government either through transfers or employment. The stats you presented don't answer that.

I'm originally from Edmonton BTW and did three degrees at U of A.

Funny, the stats you presented don't answer that either. My stats were just responding to your claim of "abundant public sector workers."

[Yegger]

Originally Posted by ZeDgE

Much like the rhetoric from up north that Calglarians are a bunch of red neck oil chugging cowboys. Its a two way street.

An assertion that I neither made nor defended... My point was not to pick on Calgary, but to point out that my question was intended to go beyond exactly the type of response I got. I should have known better to ask a question about Edmonton and Calgary. Just nm.

[BretttheRiderFan]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

What a fascinating article. I had no idea of the history there. Who knew Fort Chip was the first settlement in Alberta. Also wasn't aware of the Blackfoot / Cree divide. Very true about Calgary's Scottish character. My great grandfather was a Scottish immigrant and my grandfather was one of the last cowboys, providing pit ponies for the coal mine in East Coulee south of Drumheller. I am in fact 3/4's French ( my mother is from Quebec and my grandmother on my father's side was French from Ontario) but the Scottish last name persists and the Scottish influence is still strong. Much like the city of Calgary with its new immigrants.

The different character of the settler/immigrant populations in the early history of the two cities definitely has a role to play in the political divergence that dates back to the start of the province. Certainly more of an Eastern European/non Anglo-Saxon presence was in Edmonton at the time.

[Nelju]

How can people vote for these clowns?

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Nelju

How can people vote for these clowns?

What do you mean, the vote hasn't happened yet and he has resigned?

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Trans Canada

This is a gross oversimplification. It's easy for Calgarians to blame it on the self-interest of lazy government workers, but there really aren't all that many more in Edmonton than there are in Calgary.

Hmm... interesting.

So... should we test the water?

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

What do you mean, the vote hasn't happened yet and he has resigned?

Pfft, certain members of a certain party being gigantic morons and saying absolutely asinine things leading up to the last election certainly helped to obliterate one parties hopes...

It never looks good on a party when their members show themselves to be less then awesome candidates. They are now going to replace this guy? With someone who was not quite considered as good as this guy as to have been the candidate in the first place? Yeah, good luck with that...

Anyone want to bet on that replacements chances of winning that riding now? I will give odds on that one.

[BretttheRiderFan]

Originally Posted by Tropics

Pfft, certain members of a certain party being gigantic morons and saying absolutely asinine things leading up to the last election certainly helped to obliterate one parties hopes...

It never looks good on a party when their members show themselves to be less then awesome candidates. They are now going to replace this guy? With someone who was not quite considered as good as this guy as to have been the candidate in the first place? Yeah, good luck with that...

Anyone want to bet on that replacements chances of winning that riding now? I will give odds on that one.

It's Medicine Hat and he was NDP. What were his odds to begin with?

[BretttheRiderFan]

Say what you want about the reliability of polls, but something is happening in this province in this election and I don't quite know what.

http://1abvote.ca/wp-content/uploads...rangeGreen.png

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

It's Medicine Hat and he was NDP. What were his odds to begin with?

A very tiny bit, statistically insignificant amount more than they are now.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

Say what you want about the reliability of polls, but something is happening in this province in this election and I don't quite know what.

http://1abvote.ca/wp-content/uploads...rangeGreen.png

I will still bet even money on a PC win, and I will bet the farm on it.

TBH I think the PC's need to lose an election at this point, they are completely of the mind that they are simply Alberta royalty and an election is nothing more then a succession of the next "king". Hell, I think even a single term of NDP could be worth putting some bloody humility and ownership to the responsibilities of leadership back into the PC party. I think the NDP would be fairly brutal to the province in the short term, but I think their term would indeed be very short one...

[DizzyEdge]

anyone know if there are any per-riding poll results?

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

Say what you want about the reliability of polls, but something is happening in this province in this election and I don't quite know what.

Ya do know that ya are quoting a purported "Google Survey"? Makes the 2012 AB polls "bang-on" in comparison.

Look, there are expensive and more accurate CATI (landline and cell phone) polls, and much cheaper junk IVR (robo call) polls and opt-in online panel polls.

But these Google Surveys?

GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY

Huh? Doubt they are referring to the Bow River sample in Calgary. More likely the North SK River sample in Edmonton. As for "Bayesian"... cool word. Whatever it means.

PS. Just gotta love this tidbit from that purported Google Survey:

A NOTE ON SKEW AND POLLING METHODOLOGY: IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA.

[BretttheRiderFan]

You're really missing the point. This is just one of the many polls/surveys that have been showing a very different race in this election, and things are getting interesting. I draw no conclusions, but things are clearly interesting here.

That was the point of posting that. Perhaps you haven't been following the race.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

anyone know if there are any per-riding poll results?

There was some from Pantheon in Edmonton. They are really hard to do cheaply given how small the districts are, federally you can do reasonably well with postal prefixes.

To get good data costs a lot. A standard from the 1990s was spending 1/4 of your entire central campaign budget on polling.

No one is going to give away data that is good that cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars to get. The only group likely to do it province wide is the PCs (do one sweep province wide, then narrow the ridings you update as the campaign goes). The NDP should have enough cash to do their targets.

[eternallyme]

That poll is not likely accurate since it is an interest group poll, but the trend seems to be Wildrose and NDP both gaining at PC expense. The question mark is what are their ceilings?

The real decision is where do Calgary voters go if the PC's collapse completely. I have a hard time seeing Wildrose winning more than a few seats there, but I also have a hard time seeing the NDP winning anything there.