The Titan Arum Blooms: Alberta Election on May 5th

[big W]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Unless it is a federal election, election threads stay in their respective subforums. The ontario election last summer was in the Ontario section, no reason this one shouldn't be.

Well in my estimation due to the election being so close to the Federal Election which will be by October at the latest, it may have a direct impact on the federal scene. Especially when you have the federal and provincial governing party both being conservatives (Alberta is the only large province where this is the case). The results may totally change the federal landscape. If the cons cant hold "Fortress Alberta", then how does this change their platforms or voting intentions on the Federal scene.

Plus in the Ontario election, there did not appear to be a significant shift in voters that may happen. Think about this, the Alberta PC's have the record for the longest a party has governed in Canada, basically its been almost 50 years of Alberta conservatives in power. That is monumental if it goes, and if Wynne lost it would not have been as impactful in that sense. Not to mention the NDP currently in a dead heat with them in Alberta. If someone told you the cons won power in Ontario or the Liberals won, either is not a shock. But if someone said last year to most Canadians, in Alberta the NDP is polling ahead of the Cons, they would say you are insane. So in this manner it is a significant shift for politics in this country and of national impact.

I think the only other recent provincial election that would impact the federal scene in the same manner (assuming current Alberta polling is correct) is the Quebec election due to the PQ separatist talk (well that is much bigger impact nationally) and the implosion of the party after PKP introduction.

[big W]

Originally Posted by ciudad_del_norte

As for Edmonton centre, I actually think Laurie Blakement does quite well as an MLA. In fact, she is probably the only thing the provincial liberals really have going for them at this point. In terms of visible and active MLAs, Blakeman and Notley definitely stand out in Edmonton.

Yes that is true regarding her personally but I am taking about the party. Its bad that I have never seen anything from the party in 9 years living by the Legislature. If you cant get to me and I live right next door to the Legislature, and a few blocks from party head quarters, then how do you expect to get the word out to someone in Pincher Creek or Rainbow Lake.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by big W

Well in my estimation due to the election being so close to the Federal Election which will be by October at the latest, it may have a direct impact on the federal scene. Especially when you have the federal and provincial governing party both being conservatives (Alberta is the only large province where this is the case). The results may totally change the federal landscape. If the cons cant hold "Fortress Alberta", then how does this change their platforms or voting intentions on the Federal scene.

Plus in the Ontario election, there did not appear to be a significant shift in voters that may happen. Think about this, the Alberta PC's have the record for the longest a party has governed in Canada, basically its been almost 50 years of Alberta conservatives in power. That is monumental if it goes, and if Wynne lost it would not have been as impactful in that sense. Not to mention the NDP currently in a dead heat with them in Alberta. If someone told you the cons won power in Ontario or the Liberals won, either is not a shock. But if someone said last year to most Canadians, in Alberta the NDP is polling ahead of the Cons, they would say you are insane. So in this manner it is a significant shift for politics in this country and of national impact.

I think the only other recent provincial election that would impact the federal scene in the same manner (assuming current Alberta polling is correct) is the Quebec election due to the PQ separatist talk (well that is much bigger impact nationally) and the implosion of the party after PKP introduction.

I honestly have trouble seeing the Alberta election as having national impact unless Albertans desert the Conservatives in droves and decide to do so at the federal as well as the provincial level. In that sense, hell freezing over could also have a national impact!

[ciudad_del_norte]

Originally Posted by big W

Yes that is true regarding her personally but I am taking about the party. Its bad that I have never seen anything from the party in 9 years living by the Legislature. If you cant get to me and I live right next door to the Legislature, and a few blocks from party head quarters, then how do you expect to get the word out to someone in Pincher Creek or Rainbow Lake.

Yeah...the party as a whole seems to have given up. I feel like even Blakeman is campaigning more on her own brand than anything associated with her party (or parties )

[big W]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I honestly have trouble seeing the Alberta election as having national impact unless Albertans desert the Conservatives in droves and decide to do so at the federal as well as the provincial level. In that sense, hell freezing over could also have a national impact!

I agree, but current polling is placing the NDP in a dead heat with the PC's and the NDP is polling at 42% in Edmonton. Will this last who knows but I believe that these numbers are indicating a shift is happening and it will impact things. Remember many Albertans on this forum kept saying we are not as conservative as you think, everyone outside Alberta could not accept this very idea and this was very recent. Well if the PC's continue to stumble, and the NDP continue to grow and take a significant amount of seats, then that would be national news that would shock most Canadians if the Conservatives even fall to minority status. (Alberta has never had a minority government). I think a shift is happening that will have a huge impact on the federal scene. Think about this, if Alberta is shifting, what does this do to Harper for the Federal elections later on this year?

[big W]

Originally Posted by ciudad_del_norte

Yeah...the party as a whole seems to have given up. I feel like even Blakeman is campaigning more on her own brand than anything associated with her party (or parties )

Her Parties says it all.

[Coldrsx]

Shouldn't we just acclaim them?

PC majority.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I honestly have trouble seeing the Alberta election as having national impact

If the Alberta Separatist Party ends up forming a majority government, the election will have had some national impact. "Unlikely" doesn't begin to describe this, though.

[PoscStudent]

I think Albertans will start drifting back to the PCs when they see how well the Wildrose and NDP are polling. I'd say most prefer having a PC government but have been worried - due to most of the Wildrose caucus joining the PCs - about not having a strong opposition.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by big W

I agree, but current polling is placing the NDP in a dead heat with the PC's and the NDP is polling at 42% in Edmonton.

Percentages are useless... what's the forecasted number of seats for C/NDP/WR according to the freshest polls on voting intentions?

[Boris2k7]

Originally Posted by lio45

Percentages are useless... what's the forecasted number of seats for C/NDP/WR according to the freshest polls on voting intentions?

What is going on in Alberta?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by big W

Well in my estimation due to the election being so close to the Federal Election which will be by October at the latest, it may have a direct impact on the federal scene. Especially when you have the federal and provincial governing party both being conservatives (Alberta is the only large province where this is the case). The results may totally change the federal landscape. If the cons cant hold "Fortress Alberta", then how does this change their platforms or voting intentions on the Federal scene.

Plus in the Ontario election, there did not appear to be a significant shift in voters that may happen. Think about this, the Alberta PC's have the record for the longest a party has governed in Canada, basically its been almost 50 years of Alberta conservatives in power. That is monumental if it goes, and if Wynne lost it would not have been as impactful in that sense. Not to mention the NDP currently in a dead heat with them in Alberta. If someone told you the cons won power in Ontario or the Liberals won, either is not a shock. But if someone said last year to most Canadians, in Alberta the NDP is polling ahead of the Cons, they would say you are insane. So in this manner it is a significant shift for politics in this country and of national impact.

I think the only other recent provincial election that would impact the federal scene in the same manner (assuming current Alberta polling is correct) is the Quebec election due to the PQ separatist talk (well that is much bigger impact nationally) and the implosion of the party after PKP introduction.

I could make some similar argument on that the Ontario election was indicative of how the ever important 905 ridings may vote in the federal election and whether they are still receptive to the liberal brand.

It doesn't matter, it is a provincial election and thus should be located in the provincial subforum. Most people do not want to be spammed with posts about an election 2,000km away with little likely importance to them whatsoever.

If the election does end up showing some huge shift, the articles detailing that such event when it occurs can be posted in the relevant federal politics thread. Until then, this should be relegated to its respective subforum.

[Rico Rommheim]

Let's talk about Alberta. Just this time. It should be fun. It's Canada's only one-party system, let's see if it can change this time.

[itom 987]

Polls this early in an election are never accurate.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

... Most people do not want to be spammed with posts about a fat Toronto city councillor/ex-mayor as to whether he likes crackers an election 2,000km away with little likely importance to them whatsoever....

Fixed it for you

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I could make some similar argument on that the Ontario election was indicative of how the ever important 905 ridings may vote in the federal election and whether they are still receptive to the liberal brand.

It doesn't matter, it is a provincial election and thus should be located in the provincial subforum. Most people do not want to be spammed with posts about an election 2,000km away with little likely importance to them whatsoever.

If the election does end up showing some huge shift, the articles detailing that such event when it occurs can be posted in the relevant federal politics thread. Until then, this should be relegated to its respective subforum.

We had a very long thread about Quebec's election, so why not Alberta?

Is it because Quebec is special?

[eternallyme]

Assuming Edmonton goes mostly NDP and rural Alberta goes mostly Wildrose, then Calgary could be the decider...

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Fixed it for you

doesn't mean I agree with that thread being in the Canada section. I believe I've complained about it before.

The Quebec thread was more about the separatism question that then morphed into an election thread, didn't it?

The question of separatism is ultimately a national issue anyway, the tax rate and deficit in Alberta is not.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

I think Albertans will start drifting back to the PCs when they see how well the Wildrose and NDP are polling. I'd say most prefer having a PC government but have been worried - due to most of the Wildrose caucus joining the PCs - about not having a strong opposition.

The combined NDP/Liberal vote being in the 30-40% range isn't that unusual. It was there in 80s when the NDP was strong and for most of the period since then when the Liberals were strong. It was weaker in the last election when Redford pulled a lot of support from the centre left but nothing the PCs have done since then will help them maintain it. With the Liberal Party being a complete disaster, I could easily see the NDP pull 30% in the election.

I would agree that a three way race probably won't be maintained through out the election. Either the PCs or the WP will gain an advantage and more support will follow.

[ciudad_del_norte]

I wouldn't be surprised to see something pretty similar to last time. Wildrose in the south. NDP and some liberal in Edmonton, PC for most of the rest, maybe a few exceptions in Lethbridge and Calgary.

What I am curious to see is how much of Edmonton's apparent NDP support pulls through. Edmonton was generally red until the liberal brand imploded in Alberta. There are quite few Edmonton ridings that are decided by liberals that cant find a home.