Have to take Tosin's work with a grain of salt as it's entirely speculative.
No doubt.
Tosin's work certainly isn't authoritative, but he is diligent. His major assumption is that growth rates between censuses remain constant. This of course is not always the case, but for Moncton I think his numbers are fairly valid.
Even a casual observer of the annual CMA population estimates provided by Statistics Canada would see that Moncton was going to crack the 150k barrier sometime this year. My own personal estimate was that it was going to happen this summer, so I think Tosin's prediction of a current Moncton CMA population of 150,245 is reasonably valid.
AtlCa CMA Key Metrics 10yr Change
(data from labour force survey)
(Population 15 years and older)
Combine the above two and you get:
(clearly Halifax is the only non-lazy place around here...maybe the rest have more retirees?)
(Just checked and Canada as a whole is 61.3% on this one, not so bad I guess)
AtlCa CMA Key Metrics 10yr Change
(data from labour force survey)
(Population 15 years and older)
Combine the above two and you get:
(clearly Halifax is the only non-lazy place around here...maybe the rest have more retirees?)
(Just checked and Canada as a whole is 61.3% on this one, not so bad I guess)
You should also take into consideration the fact that the population numbers count people between 15-18 (School aged), and therefore that might be one of the reasons the employment rate is so low compared to population numbers.
Last edited by JHikka; Oct 10, 2016 at 2:44 PM.
Reason: Graph redundancy
Have to take Tosin's work with a grain of salt as it's entirely speculative.
They're getting there. Smaller municipalities are getting smaller and larger municipalities are getting larger as a %. Municipalities between 10K and 20K grew on average of 4.5% between 2001 and 2006 whereas municipalities smaller than 2K shrank by an average of 4.9% during that same time period. Organized municipalities grew by 1% of the total share of population between 2001 and 2006 which will only increase as the rural areas age and empty out.
I agree, the one that stands out the most for me is that he says Fredericton has over 116,000 people. In order for Fredericton to get that amount of people it would have to have grown 24%!!!! Last census it grew by 9.3%. Quite the difference! lol
I can't wait until Fredericton is a CMA so we can get more frequent stats.
Hopefully it'll happen after this census and before the 2021 census. I believe the criteria is that you need at least 50,000 people in your core and over 100,000 in total population. I'm sure Fredericton will have that after the 2016 census results are released in 2017.
October 2016 Unemployment Rates for Atlantic Canadian CMAs
(the rates for October 2015 are shown in parentheses)
Halifax - 5.6% (5.7%)
Moncton - 6.6% (6.0%)
Saint John - 7.2% (7.3%)
St. John's - 8.1% (6.4%)
The big spike in St. John's is no doubt due to the oil sector collapse, and the resulting government austerity. I'm not quite sure why the rate has jumped in Moncton, but this bears careful watching. It's kind of surprising given the construction boom going on around the city.......
For comparison, here are the unemployment rates in the largest four Canadian CMAs
Montreal - 7.1% (8.5%)
Toronto - 7.3% (7.3%)
Calgary - 10.2% (6.7%)
Vancouver - 5.2% (6.0%)
The rates in the big three Maritime cities compare very well with the larger Canadian metropoli.
October 2016 Unemployment Rates for Atlantic Canadian CMAs
(the rates for October 2015 are shown in parentheses)
Halifax - 5.6% (5.7%)
Moncton - 6.6% (6.0%)
Saint John - 7.2% (7.3%)
St. John's - 8.1% (6.4%)
The big spike in St. John's is no doubt due to the oil sector collapse, and the resulting government austerity. I'm not quite sure why the rate has jumped in Moncton, but this bears careful watching. It's kind of surprising given the construction boom going on around the city.......
For comparison, here are the unemployment rates in the largest four Canadian CMAs
Montreal - 7.1% (8.5%)
Toronto - 7.3% (7.3%)
Calgary - 10.2% (6.7%)
Vancouver - 5.2% (6.0%)
The rates in the big three Maritime cities compare very well with the larger Canadian metropoli.
Take a look at the four Atlantic Provinces:
Unemployment rate October 2016 (September 2016 in brackets)
Nova Scotia - 7.6% (8.1%)
New Brunswick - 10.0% (9.3%)
Prince Edward Island - 11.7% (10.8%)
Newfoundland and Labrador - 14.9% (13.6%)
Just goes to show the difference between urban and rural unemployment rates in all four provinces.
Also, month over month unemployment rates tend to jump around a lot (sampling error, small sample size, seasonal differences). It's better to look at a year to year comparison.
Still, I'm no fan of the Brian Gallant government. He's a boy in a man's job, taking direction from Dominic LeBlanc and from the Atcon six gang. He has no friggin' idea what he's doing. As long as he remains in power, the NB unemployment rate will continue to languish......
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Last edited by MonctonRad; Nov 5, 2016 at 5:24 PM.
Just goes to show the difference between urban and rural unemployment rates in all four provinces.
Which is something that absolutely needs to be pointed out - Urban unemployment is static or declining whilst rural unemployment is rising. This is happening as the urban population of NB is growing as the rural population shrinks, similar to every other province in the region. These are some of the growing pains associated with that shrinking. Nova Scotia has the highest percentage of population living in an urban area, and the largest urban centre in the region, and not surprisingly thus has the lowest unemployment.
Statistics Canada has just released boundary changes for urban CMAs/CAs based on the last census period:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laceoflight
Here is an overview of the changes for the Maritimes and Newfoundland.
Since I don't have undated population data for census subdivisions, I simply used census 2011 pop. numbers to show how the "changes" could affect the population of the CA/CMA.
--------------
MONCTON
Adds Hopewell +643 people (numbers from 2011)
FREDERICTON
Adds Queensbury, Harvey, Manners Sutton and Tracy + 4052
SAINT JOHN
Adds Norton parish +1296
HALIFAX
Unchanged
CAPE BRETON
Unchanged
CHARLOTTETOWN
Adds Lot 49, Lot 37, Mount Stewart and Scotchfort 4 +2037
ST. JOHN'S
Unchanged
The big winner is obviously Fredericton, adding more than 4000 souls based on this boundary change alone. I think the conversion of Freddy from a CA to a CMA is now a foregone conclusion..........
A little disappointed that Shediac, Scoudouc or Memramcook weren't added into Moncton's given the amount of commuting going on, but the rules are pretty clear-cut. I expect they'll all be grouped in over the next 10 years or so. In terms of population counts, the CMA number is pretty arbitrary anyway.
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Same here in Freddy...Oromocto is not included in our numbers......CA or future CMA. From StatsCan's perspective the majority of people in Oromocto earn their living in Oromocto/Gagetown and thus do not qualify for inclusion into the Freddy numbers even though there is frequent commuting to access services in the Capital. Even stranger because Harvey is much further away but the majority of people travel to Freddy for their work
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