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  #4541  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 7:48 PM
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I so agree:

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I Miss a Lot About Pre-COVID Life, But Mostly the Bathroom in the Four Seasons Lobby
By Brock Keeling@BrockKeeling

I felt its absence during my regular Saturday-morning walk through the wasteland that is now San Francisco, tumbleweeds rolling through its empty streets, nary a clang-clang-clang from a cable car to be detected. Armed with a large cold brew, my journey on foot along Market Street was suddenly cut short: I had to pee. None of the regular pit stops were available. Cafés, usually a safe bet for the price of a scone, were only serving curbside orders. Restaurants, where I could usually camouflage myself as a brunch customer, were closed. Even big-box retail stores like Target, deemed essential, taped off their petri-dish bathrooms to patrons. Short of unleashing a flood onto city streets or on the corner of a building, which is as illegal as it is unsightly, there was nowhere to go.

Forget toilet paper and King Arthur Flour; the real COVID-era commodity is a peaceful public bathroom. But not just any tidy restroom — one that is free of charge and impossibly dignified.

My surest and chicest bet for bladder relief — the lobby bathroom inside the Four Seasons hotel — wasn’t open. Frequenting this WC, I have spotted such well-known hotel residents as former Google VP Marissa Mayer and publishing heir William Randolph Hearst III, not to mention LeBron James and his sidekick Kevin Love, who have stayed here during the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2016 NBA championship matchups against the Golden State Warriors.

I’ve grown accustomed to popping in for nearly a decade since moving into the SoMa neighborhood. Smack-dab between two Muni stations, the Four Seasons is the most luxurious place to relieve myself prior to jumping on grimy public transit . . . .
https://sf.curbed.com/2020/6/15/2129...id-coronavirus
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  #4542  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 7:59 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Thank you for the quantifiable goal.

Now SIGSEGV, you're gonna have to dumb this down to my level...

How does r<1 compare to say an average flu season? (If the question doesn't make sense I don't know what to say lol)
The seasonal flu is about r = 1. Or, for every infected person, they pass it to one other person. COVID is believed to be anywhere from r = 2 to r = 6. They don't really know for sure since it's a new virus, but based on behavior it's probably quite a bit above 2. If r is less than 1, that means the virus is disappearing. This is what should start to happen when the vaccine gets us to "herd immunity".
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  #4543  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 7:59 PM
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Yup, and public water fountains.
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  #4544  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:03 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The seasonal flu is about r = 1. Or, for every infected person, they pass it to one other person. COVID is believed to be anywhere from r = 2 to r = 6. They don't really know for sure since it's a new virus, but based on behavior it's probably quite a bit above 2. If r is less than 1, that means the virus is disappearing. This is what should start to happen when the vaccine gets us to "herd immunity".
Thank you.

Now, here is my question/concern:

During a bad flu season, we do nothing different. No masks, social distancing, restrictions, etc. So at what point, or how bad does a flu season have to be to make us do those things? I ask this because let's say Covid goes to r=1.4? Its worse than the flu, but as I said, we never did anything different for the flu, so why are we only going to declare mission accomplished when we get to flu levels, why not slightly higher than flu levels?

I hope that point/question makes sense.

Last edited by jtown,man; Mar 3, 2021 at 8:47 PM.
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  #4545  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Thank you for the quantifiable goal.

Now SIGSEGV, you're gonna have to dumb this down to my level...

How does r<1 compare to say an average flu season? (If the question doesn't make sense I don't know what to say lol)
I think a typical flu season has r> 1 for a relatively short time (the winter, when cases rise), and r<~ 1 the rest of the time (when cases fall).
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  #4546  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Thank you.

Now, here is my question/concern:

During a bad flu season, we do nothing different. No masks, social distancing, restrictions, etc. So at what point, or how bad does a flu season have to be to make us do those things? I ask this because let's say Covid goes to r=1.4? Its worst than the flu, but as I said, we never did anything different for the flu, so why are we only going to declare mission accomplished when we get to flu levels, why not slightly higher than flu levels?

I hope that point/question makes sense.
Yes, it makes sense. First, the flu has a widely available vaccine. Anyone who wants a flu vaccine can usually get one. Second, much has been made of the fact that COVID only has a mortality rate of between 1-3%, but that's 10-30 times more deadly than the flu. So, COVID is 1) much more easily transmissible than the flu, 2) much more deadly, and 3) does not have a widely available vaccine.
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  #4547  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:11 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
I know that if mask mandates are rescinded, I sure as hell won't go anywhere where there might be unmasked people until I'm vaccinated. (Fortunately, UChicago has actually increased masking requirements in the last few weeks due to the new variants, https://goforward.uchicago.edu/feb-10-email-update/).
I AM vaccinated and I got my second Pfizer shot over 2 weeks ago so I should be getting the full effect. But I do not find wearing a mask any sort of difficulty and plan to continue doing so in public until people start asking me "what's COVID?" and I will not be patronizing places where there are unmasked people indoors because I consider such people inconsiderate and uncaring about the welfare of others as well as themselves.

The current vaccine is less than 100% effective against existing mutations of the virus and at any point in time, anywhere on the planet, a new mutation could pop up that's almost 100% resistant to the vaccine and even the vaccinated could be exposed to it unknowingly. So what makes sense to me is to continue with "layered" protection. Sure, get vaccinated, but also do the other things that are really no big inconvenience or bother.

At the same time, go ahead and do the things that really matter to you such as travel. And as a society, once most of us are vaccinated (or those who refuse to get vaccinated get infected and either die or recover with immunity), we can return the economy to a normal status, allowing however for those of us who want to remain careful to do so. I, for example, expect from now on I will ALWAYS wear a KN95 mask on public transit or in indoor crowds. At the very least, I'll get fewer colds.
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  #4548  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Thank you.

Now, here is my question/concern:

During a bad flu season, we do nothing different. No masks, social distancing, restrictions, etc. So at what point, or how bad does a flu season have to be to make us do those things? I ask this because let's say Covid goes to r=1.4? Its worst than the flu, but as I said, we never did anything different for the flu, so why are we only going to declare mission accomplished when we get to flu levels, why not slightly higher than flu levels?

I hope that point/question makes sense.
Well, people get flu vaccines every year (but they don't always work, and only half of people bother). But there are some mitigations in places where people are more susceptible (hospitals, communal living areas) during flu season.

COVID has a ~5-10 greater hospitalization rate than the flu, and hospitals are often somewhat burdened during flu season (in fact, probably the size of the burden during flu season sets hospital capacities, to some extent). A sustained r=1.4 COVID every year probably overwhelms hospitals with patients after a few months, but maybe not. Depends on length of stay and stuff like that. It's probably better for everyone just to get vaccinated every year, if necessary.
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  #4549  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I AM vaccinated and I got my second Pfizer shot over 2 weeks ago so I should be getting the full effect. But I do not find wearing a mask any sort of difficulty and plan to continue doing so in public until people start asking me "what's COVID?" and I will not be patronizing places where there are unmasked people indoors because I consider such people inconsiderate and uncaring about the welfare of others as well as themselves.

The current vaccine is less than 100% effective against existing mutations of the virus and at any point in time, anywhere on the planet, a new mutation could pop up that's almost 100% resistant to the vaccine and even the vaccinated could be exposed to it unknowingly. So what makes sense to me is to continue with "layered" protection. Sure, get vaccinated, but also do the other things that are really no big inconvenience or bother.
Right, I'm more concerned about spreading it than getting it at my age, though having just undergone a 14-day quarantine due to exposure (my wife tested positive, we successfully isolated from each other within our unit and I never tested positive), I sure don't want to do that again if I don't have to.

Quote:

At the same time, go ahead and do the things that really matter to you such as travel. And as a society, once most of us are vaccinated (or those who refuse to get vaccinated get infected and either die or recover with immunity), we can return the economy to a normal status, allowing however for those of us who want to remain careful to do so. I, for example, expect from now on I will ALWAYS wear a KN95 mask on public transit or in indoor crowds. At the very least, I'll get fewer colds.
Yeah, I might keep wearing a mask on airplanes (when I travel again) forever, since I always seem to get a cold every time I fly.
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  #4550  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:17 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
If r is less than 1, that means the virus is disappearing. This is what should start to happen when the vaccine gets us to "herd immunity".
As Tony Fauci admitted on TV the other day, "Herd Immunity" is not a thing that either exists or doesn't. It's the end point on a continuity so that as more people have either natural (from infection and recovery) or artificial (for vaccination) immunity, "r" declines and approaches (but may never reach) 0. What most virologists believe is that with 70% plus of the population vaccinated, r for this virus will be close enough to 0 that only sporadic outbreaks will occur, more or less like measles now.
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  #4551  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:26 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
A sustained r=1.4 COVID every year probably overwhelms hospitals with patients after a few months, but maybe not. Depends on length of stay and stuff like that. It's probably better for everyone just to get vaccinated every year, if necessary.
I'll be really surprised if that's necessary and it likely only will be if COVID remains common enough in the developing world that mutations keep popping up frequently. That likely won't happen in places where most of the populace is vaccinated.

As you know, I'm sure, the flu virus is less stable than coronavirus and exists in a greater number of varieties such that mutations are regularly occurring and almost impossible to suppress. Hence the need for a new vaccine every year (the vaccine offered in the northern hemisphere is usually based on the latest mutations and prevalent varieties of virus found that northern summer (southern winter) in the Southern Hemisphere.

But such a pattern of regularly occurring mutations isn't likely in coronavirus, especially if vaccination is widespread even in poorer countries.
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  #4552  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:47 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Yes, it makes sense. First, the flu has a widely available vaccine. Anyone who wants a flu vaccine can usually get one. Second, much has been made of the fact that COVID only has a mortality rate of between 1-3%, but that's 10-30 times more deadly than the flu. So, COVID is 1) much more easily transmissible than the flu, 2) much more deadly, and 3) does not have a widely available vaccine.
Flu has a widely available vaccine that at times is 40% effective, and a HUGE amount of the public never gets.

I know, I've been offering it for years, and lots of people say no. And those are just the people who see the doctor.

Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life, like, ever....

But yes, among the elderly COVID is far more deadly, I'm aware of this
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  #4553  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:49 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Yes, it makes sense. First, the flu has a widely available vaccine. Anyone who wants a flu vaccine can usually get one. Second, much has been made of the fact that COVID only has a mortality rate of between 1-3%, but that's 10-30 times more deadly than the flu. So, COVID is 1) much more easily transmissible than the flu, 2) much more deadly, and 3) does not have a widely available vaccine.
So, let me make sure I am getting you right:

If Covid had the same death rate as the flu, we could deal with a higher r rate. However, since it is a lot more deadly, an r rate of 1 is basically the floor to judge when we are "good to go"?
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  #4554  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:50 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Flu has a widely available vaccine that at times is 40% effective, and a HUGE amount of the public never gets.

I know, I've been offering it for years, and lots of people say no. And those are just the people who see the doctor.

Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life, like, ever....

But yes, among the elderly COVID is far more deadly, I'm aware of this
Flu shots are indeed required in some contexts (e.g. participating in the US Antarctic Program, maybe some retirement homes etc?). They probably should be required in more (universities, service workers). Even if it doesn't help every year, it will help a lot overall.
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  #4555  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:52 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is online now
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I AM vaccinated and I got my second Pfizer shot over 2 weeks ago so I should be getting the full effect. But I do not find wearing a mask any sort of difficulty and plan to continue doing so in public until people start asking me "what's COVID?" and I will not be patronizing places where there are unmasked people indoors because I consider such people inconsiderate and uncaring about the welfare of others as well as themselves.

The current vaccine is less than 100% effective against existing mutations of the virus and at any point in time, anywhere on the planet, a new mutation could pop up that's almost 100% resistant to the vaccine and even the vaccinated could be exposed to it unknowingly. So what makes sense to me is to continue with "layered" protection. Sure, get vaccinated, but also do the other things that are really no big inconvenience or bother.

At the same time, go ahead and do the things that really matter to you such as travel. And as a society, once most of us are vaccinated (or those who refuse to get vaccinated get infected and either die or recover with immunity), we can return the economy to a normal status, allowing however for those of us who want to remain careful to do so. I, for example, expect from now on I will ALWAYS wear a KN95 mask on public transit or in indoor crowds. At the very least, I'll get fewer colds.
^ I think that this perspective is perfectly reasonable (although I don't plan on living in so much fear personally, but I'm much younger than you) in the post-vaccine world as long as it transitions to a take the necessary precautions to protect yourself policy as opposed to top-down mandates, which are just so destructive to peoples' livelihoods, economies, and generate so much resentment.
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  #4556  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:56 PM
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I'll be really surprised if that's necessary and it likely only will be if COVID remains common enough in the developing world that mutations keep popping up frequently. That likely won't happen in places where most of the populace is vaccinated.
Meh, it's not like we aren't going to keep up with (perhaps?) yearly booster shots for COVID to address the variants.

It's a matter of swapping out the mRNA for the latest variant, shoot it into people, and "poof" you're good. We got this!

The mood everywhere is so somber, I don't get it. More people should be happy, we are really getting close to the end of the worst of this.
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  #4557  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 8:59 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Flu has a widely available vaccine that at times is 40% effective, and a HUGE amount of the public never gets.

I know, I've been offering it for years, and lots of people say no. And those are just the people who see the doctor.

Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life, like, ever....

But yes, among the elderly COVID is far more deadly, I'm aware of this
That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.
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  #4558  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:08 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
So, let me make sure I am getting you right:

If Covid had the same death rate as the flu, we could deal with a higher r rate. However, since it is a lot more deadly, an r rate of 1 is basically the floor to judge when we are "good to go"?
I wouldn't say "good to go"... but if COVID had the same mortality rate as the flu, but still had a higher reproduction rate (r) then there would still be more people dying of COVID, but just not as many as there are dying now. So it would be a less concerning situation than what we're actually dealing with right now.

Actually, we've seen this situation in the U.S. fairly recently. I believe this was similar to the 2009 swine flu outbreak.
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  #4559  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:25 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is online now
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.
The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.
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  #4560  
Old Posted Mar 3, 2021, 9:31 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.
Okay, but governments did step in to manage the spread of influenza during the 1918 pandemic. If vaccines were available in 1918, it is obvious that government policy would be tailored to the distribution of an influenza vaccine. Our situation today is not without precedent.
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