Hopeful, yet realistic expectations for your city in your lifetime

[Quixote]

I'm sure many of us fantasize about what our cities would be like in an alternative reality in which we wielded omnipotent power or could donate billions of dollars to fix the problems, fund the projects, optimize the resources, and achieve the milestones that would bring to fruition our cities' fullest potential (as we see it), including desires that satisfy our personal agendas and preferences.

However, we all know that our vested interests with respect to our cities are quite niche, and that the concept of reality fundamentally renders make-believe forever out of reach. As someone who started perusing this forum and developing an interest in urbanism as a teenager back in 2005 and is now a grown adult, I've come to terms with the fact that the idealized, naiveté-based vision I had for my city more than likely isn't going to happen (at least not in my lifetime). But that doesn't stop me from dreaming of what could be, because even if unattainable, it's what makes me feel alive and appreciate what progress is actually made.

With that said, what are your hopes/dreams for your city that are at least somewhat rooted in reality, and how do they align with your expectations for what will actually happen?

[Quixote]

A few for Los Angeles:

1) DTLA (population 40-50K) reaches a population of 400-500K. (The DTLA 2040 plan projects an additional 125K residents by 2040)

2) LACMTA Metro Rail achieves an average weekday ridership of 1.75 to 2 million (all-time peak was around 375K)

3) The D (Purple) Line is extended to Wilshire/4th, completing the longtime "Subway to the Sea" vision

4) Ontario airport becomes our version of Gatwick, accessible from DTLA via CAHSR in 20-25 minutes

5) Inland Empire gets absorbed into the LA MSA; Santa Barbara gets absorbed into the LA CSA

[mhays]

I'm in my 50s so I still have 90-100 years left. But let's go with a 20-year horizon.

Seattle will have built or nearly completed all of ST3's rail and BRTish lines.

The city of Seattle will be approaching 1,000,000, from 737,000 in 2020. The State OMB just came out with 4/1/23 estimates and they say it grew by 42,000 in three years. This will be made easier by the State's new missing-middle mandates (six-plexes and four-plexes allowed on most lots) and the City's 2024 comprehensive plan updates.

All the major metro cities are updating their comprehensive plans and will allow both missing-middle and other large-scale upzones. This will keep home prices somewhat reasonable vs. other coastal cities.

We'll continue to rise as an international crossroads. Sea-Tac's recent expansions were clearly needed by the airlines. We just passed the 2019 traffic May vs. May, even without China.

[isaidso]

I'll look to mid-century as too many things could happen to prognosticate more than ~27 years into the future. The fundamentals fuelling Toronto's growth won't disappear anytime soon so maintaining the current pace of change seems reasonable. My list is mostly infrastructure related.


- Greater Toronto Hamilton population increases from 8.2 million to 14 million
- Foreign Born population increases from 4 million to 9 million
- Gardiner Expressway from High Park to the Don Valley taken down and re-worked as Toronto's grandest boulevard; our Paseo de la Reforma
- Re-working the Don Valley into an easily accessible, connected, park. Most of Bayview Road, All of Rosedale Valley Road become pedestrian/bicycle only
- Car access to Evergreen Brickworks from Moore Road or Pottery Road only
- 70 million capacity airport built in Pickering, Hamilton Munro capacity expanded to 30 million, Pearson expanded to 70 million
- TTC subway system expands to 400 km of track
- TTC streetcar system expands to 200 km of track
- GO Train weekday ridership hits 1 million
- Major rail terminals completed in East Harbour, Exhibition, and Pearson
- 150m+ skyscraper count hits 800; most of any city outside Asia
- Builds world Seed Bank and a Botanical Garden for research, education, and tourism
- Jack Layton Ferry Terminal built
- Pedestrianization of the downtown core is realized. Most roads reduced to 1-2 lanes or car free entirely
- 30 km/h speed limit for cars in the central city
- Lake Ontario water level management system designed and built to prevent flooding
- Toronto hosts the 2044 Summer Olympics
- Toronto Raptors become the most valuable franchise in the NBA

[benp]

I was born in the first year of its long population decline for the city of Buffalo, and the same year that the (then AFL) Buffalo Bills played their first season. So far I have experienced 1 of 2 expectations (city population increase, but no Super Bowl) so I like to think that almost anything is possible.

What I expect in the next 20 years based on current developments and trends:
- city and metro population will continue to moderately increase, and city population will pass both St. Louis and Pittsburgh
- core downtown population will be at least triple current numbers
- Asian population in the city will reach 25% of city total
- the Metro Rail expansion to UB Amherst will be completed, and daily ridership numbers will be more than doubled
- the DL&W terminal downtown will become an active public market and cruise terminal
- The Buffalo Central Terminal buildings will be fully restored, but still no longer used for active trains
- the Kensington Expressway along Humboldt Parkway will be buried, and the Scajaquada Expressway will be removed
- the Skyway will still be standing
- Canalside, Waterfront Village, Silo City, and Old First Ward adjacent to Buffalo River waterfront will be completely built out
- Niagara Street will be fully gentrified from downtown to Riverside
- The near East Side, closest to downtown, will fully infill west of Michigan Avenue, and near fully west of Jefferson Avenue, between Larkin and Humboldt Parkway
- East Side axial roads adjacent to downtown (Genesee, Sycamore, Broadway, William, Clinton) will infill with multi-family residential
- Bailey Avenue will complete a major upgrade, improvements, and possibly gentrification similar to Niagara Street
- the city bike network will be completed and fully integrated

What I would hope for, but not in the cards yet:
- Amtrak improvements, or seasonal rail, with better and more frequent service between downtown station and a GO connection in Niagara Falls
- Updated or replaced Key Bank Center downtown, possible with convention element included
- the Sabres will win a Stanley Cup and the Bills win a Super Bowl

[PhilliesPhan]

Being born in 1995, I've seen Philadelphia reach its absolute lowest point in terms of population decline and its population rebound starting in 2006. Since I'm planning to stick around in this city and on this planet for a while, here is what I'm expecting for my city:

1.) I expect the city to surpass 1.7 million people during my lifetime. After the long boom cycle of the mid-2000s up until the pandemic, the city has far too much going for it to suddenly start declining back to the population lows of the early 2000s. I can also see the MSA population surpassing 7 million people.

2.) I expect us to lose the "poorest big city" label at some point in the future. With the share of the population with a bachelor's degree or higher increasing, out migration from our poorest neighborhoods continuing to occur, and the fact that the Philadelphia area has been outpacing both our Northeastern peers and the national average as of late, I don't see how that label will remain.

3.) I'm expecting us to lead the way in gene therapy, and for University City to become synonymous with companies in that space.

4.) Not only will SEPTA recover its ridership in the future, but the system will expand. I expect the city to seriously consider building the Roosevelt Boulevard Subway in the future (the city has historically built subways, not SEPTA nor its predecessors), potentially in conjunction with a PennDOT-led effort to convert the inner lanes of the Boulevard into an expressway-like configuration.

5.) Revitalization will creep deeper and deeper into North Philly. Broad and Lehigh will see large-scale development, and Lehigh Avenue will eventually become the new line of demarcation between the revitalized and poorer portions of North Philly (that line currently sits around Cecil B. Moore Avenue). Most of West Philly will also be revitalized given everything happening in University City.

6.) Something will be done about the open-air drug market on Kensington Avenue. Once action is taken, Kensington will see a tremendous amount of developer interest. Frankford will also see increased developer interest.

7.) PHL will eventually have a direct flight to Asia. This flight will most likely be to Tokyo or Hong Kong since we're an American/OneWorld hub, but Shanghai would also work.

8.) PHL will also acquire additional European, Middle Eastern, and African connections. I could see Turkish Airlines setting up operations at PHL, for example.

9.) The Vine Street Expressway will eventually be capped between 9th and 22nd Streets, stitching up the severed connection between Center City and North Philly.

10.) Germantown is going to become the new "it" neighborhood, similar to Northern Liberties and Fishtown.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan

Being born in 1995, I've seen Philadelphia reach its absolute lowest point in terms of population decline and its population rebound starting in 2006. Since I'm planning to stick around in this city and on this planet for a while, here is what I'm expecting for my city:

1.) I expect the city to surpass 1.7 million people during my lifetime. After the long boom cycle of the mid-2000s up until the pandemic, the city has far too much going for it to suddenly start declining back to the population lows of the early 2000s. I can also see the MSA population surpassing 7 million people.

2.) I expect us to lose the "poorest big city" label at some point in the future. With the share of the population with a bachelor's degree or higher increasing, out migration from our poorest neighborhoods continuing to occur, and the fact that the Philadelphia area has been outpacing both our Northeastern peers and the national average as of late, I don't see how that label will remain.

3.) I'm expecting us to lead the way in gene therapy, and for University City to become synonymous with companies in that space.

4.) Not only will SEPTA recover its ridership in the future, but the system will expand. I expect the city to seriously consider building the Roosevelt Boulevard Subway in the future (the city has historically built subways, not SEPTA nor its predecessors), potentially in conjunction with a PennDOT-led effort to convert the inner lanes of the Boulevard into an expressway-like configuration.

5.) Revitalization will creep deeper and deeper into North Philly. Broad and Lehigh will see large-scale development, and Lehigh Avenue will eventually become the new line of demarcation between the revitalized and poorer portions of North Philly (that line currently sits around Cecil B. Moore Avenue). Most of West Philly will also be revitalized given everything happening in University City.

6.) Something will be done about the open-air drug market on Kensington Avenue. Once action is taken, Kensington will see a tremendous amount of developer interest. Frankford will also see increased developer interest.

7.) PHL will eventually have a direct flight to Asia. This flight will most likely be to Tokyo or Hong Kong since we're an American/OneWorld hub, but Shanghai would also work.

8.) PHL will also acquire additional European, Middle Eastern, and African connections. I could see Turkish Airlines setting up operations at PHL, for example.

9.) The Vine Street Expressway will eventually be capped between 9th and 22nd Streets, stitching up the severed connection between Center City and North Philly.

10.) Germantown is going to become the new "it" neighborhood, similar to Northern Liberties and Fishtown.

This is a great list, though relatively modest (as I would expect from a Philadelphian). I would add / revise a few things.

I'm in my early 40s. Assuming I live another 30-40 years (fingers crossed), this is how I would change the list:

1. Population of city proper reaches 2 million.
2. Virtually all blight in the city is eliminated. (I agree, we will lose the poorest big city moniker sooner rather than later).
3. High speed rail connects us to NYC in sub-40 minutes.
4. The big industrial development projects on the board (Navy Yard, Bellweather) come to complete fruition, eliminating the industrial blight that remains.
5. Our port becomes a player on the national scene, in the way that Savannah has emerged in the past 20 years.

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by Quixote

A few for Los Angeles:

1) DTLA (population 40-50K) reaches a population of 400-500K. (The DTLA 2040 plan projects an additional 125K residents by 2040)

2) LACMTA Metro Rail achieves an average weekday ridership of 1.75 to 2 million (all-time peak was around 375K)

3) The D (Purple) Line is extended to Wilshire/4th, completing the longtime "Subway to the Sea" vision

4) Ontario airport becomes our version of Gatwick, accessible from DTLA via CAHSR in 20-25 minutes

5) Inland Empire gets absorbed into the LA MSA; Santa Barbara gets absorbed into the LA CSA

I agree with all of these except for the last. Santa Barbara getting absorbed into the LA CSA would mean the Los Angeles region continues to sprawl. One of the things that makes Santa Barbara so nice is that despite being close to LA, the Santa Barbara and Ventura county coast continues to remain less developed than elsewhere in Southern California. I think this open space should be preserved, with development being infill growth, especially near transit.

[iheartthed]

For NYC, I'd like to see high-speed rail to Boston via a new tunnel built under the Long Island Sound. The Utica Avenue subway sounds like a good idea.

Maybe we can also go on a borough diet too, and cut Staten Island loose.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Quixote

A few for Los Angeles:

1) DTLA (population 40-50K) reaches a population of 400-500K. (The DTLA 2040 plan projects an additional 125K residents by 2040)

2) LACMTA Metro Rail achieves an average weekday ridership of 1.75 to 2 million (all-time peak was around 375K)

3) The D (Purple) Line is extended to Wilshire/4th, completing the longtime "Subway to the Sea" vision

4) Ontario airport becomes our version of Gatwick, accessible from DTLA via CAHSR in 20-25 minutes

5) Inland Empire gets absorbed into the LA MSA; Santa Barbara gets absorbed into the LA CSA

Oh mah gah no, Santa Barbara does NOT need to be absorbed into the LA CSA. Santa Barbara still feels like its own, charming entity to me. At least with the Inland Empire, I know that a good amount of people who live there commute into the LA metro area; myself living and working in the SGV, I have a number of coworkers who commute from places like Fontana, Chino, and (yikes) Victorville and Hesperia.

[SnowFire]

3 chicago loop lines connecting the el trunks.

[pdxtex]

I hope for a 100 percent occupied CBD. This will vanquish most troublesome "camping" situations and restore some vibrancy to downtown. The notion of "solving" homelessness in west coast cities is noble but expensive and fruitless. People are free to wander and will congregate in warm and tolerant cities. If ppl return to their offices or commercial real estate sees a correction then new owners will occupy those spaces. Thats my realistic expectation. Commercial rents will have to fall to a point that new occupants deem acceptable. Until then I think the street scene in the PNW will stay relatively the same and vacancy will increase.

[Quixote]

Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist

I agree with all of these except for the last. Santa Barbara getting absorbed into the LA CSA would mean the Los Angeles region continues to sprawl. One of the things that makes Santa Barbara so nice is that despite being close to LA, the Santa Barbara and Ventura county coast continues to remain less developed than elsewhere in Southern California. I think this open space should be preserved, with development being infill growth, especially near transit.

Not necessarily. It could mean that LA and Ventura Counties develop stronger economies and a convenient rail option for commuting is available. But seeing as 40% of the county’s population lives farther north in and around Santa Maria and Lompoc, I doubt that the LA CSA will ever account for 15% of Santa Barbara County workers.

[Quixote]

At a more holistic, macro level, I expect the five-county Greater LA region to experience stagnant or very modest growth once Boomers are no longer around and growth among the Latino population levels off and/or Texas becomes the primary destination for Mexican immigrants. Asia will be the primary source of the foreign-born population, with the Chinese population eventually surpassing the Bay Area and catching up with Greater NYC. The Indian population, though not large percentage-wise, is about 200,000 strong, and Indian immigrants will probably end up populating all the major metros in large numbers.

I expect LA’s tech and venture capital ecosystem to continue growing, but the question is to what degree. Silicon Valley will always remain the top dog, but “democratization” is sort of the core ethos of tech, so I think all of the major metros are poised to have some skin in the game, as opposed to corporate finance, which is really mostly a NYC-area domain.

The urban movement has been making inroads for the last 30+ years. The issue is no longer about building density or rail, but rather what kind of density and rail and where? It seems like we still have a generation to go before wider sidewalks and narrower roads will become more palatable among a greater percentage of the population.

[Northern Light]

For Toronto:

I'll start with a bit of different take than most and start by saying I would like the City's growth to slow somewhat. Not stop or stagnate; but slow enough to let infrastructure investments catch up a bit.

That said, some infrastructure 'realistic' hopes:

-Delivery of frequent (ever 15M or better), 2-way, all-day, commuter rail on all of the lines for which this is already contemplated, but also GO Transit's Milton Corridor.

-Building a new rail crossing of the Welland Canal (over/under) that allow for hourly (or better) 2-way all-day GO (Commuter Rail) service from Toronto to Niagara Falls.

- Extending the just beginning construction Ontario Line northwards to Sheppard Avenue

- Completing the Sheppard Subway from Sheppard West to McCowan Road.

- Acquiring significantly more waterfront parkland, particularly in Scarborough (above the bluffs) and Etobicoke, and achieving significantly more off-road, multi-use path (Waterfront Trail)

- Pushing Toronto's Ravine bike trail system through any and all public and private golf courses.

- Redeveloping more older public housing communities as mixed-income, with good neighbourhood infrastructure and quality units.

- A significant reduction in homelessness through more affordable housing, through replacing hostels/shelters with single-room occupancy housing providing greater safety, privacy and hygiene.

- A near High-Speed, high-frequency, inter-city rail system connecting Toronto to Windsor/Detroit, Niagara/Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

- A general improvement in the quality and quantity of City services.

- Universal Automatic Train Control and Platform Edge Doors throughout the subway system.

- Significantly more year-round public washrooms in parks, along major roads, plazas and public squares, as well as in major transit/subway stations.

- Completing a series of already proposed high quality public realm/streetscape projects; and adding more with a focus on road diets.

- Delivery of University Park; a concept of turning 1/2 of Toronto's University Avenue and Queen's Park Crescent into a massive new downtown park.

*****

On the private development side, I'd like to see some heritage re-creation; as Toronto's stock of good quality heritage is thin.

I'd like to see more purpose-built rental housing.

[Doady]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

For Toronto:

I'll start with a bit of different take than most and start by saying I would like the City's growth to slow somewhat. Not stop or stagnate; but slow enough to let infrastructure investments catch up a bit.

That said, some infrastructure 'realistic' hopes:

-Delivery of frequent (ever 15M or better), 2-way, all-day, commuter rail on all of the lines for which this is already contemplated, but also GO Transit's Milton Corridor.

-Building a new rail crossing of the Welland Canal (over/under) that allow for hourly (or better) 2-way all-day GO (Commuter Rail) service from Toronto to Niagara Falls.

- Extending the just beginning construction Ontario Line northwards to Sheppard Avenue

- Completing the Sheppard Subway from Sheppard West to McCowan Road.

It's actually the ridership that needs to catch up, not the infrastructure, right? Toronto's rail system has been operating way under the capacity ever since the pandemic. Hopefully, at least 90% recovery will happen in our lifetimes...

It's Brampton and Mississauga where the overcrowding is happening right now. Brampton reached 100% of pre-pandemic ridership last year and Mississauga reached 110% earlier this year. The only urgent need now is building LRT along Main and Queen in Brampton.

Originally Posted by isaidso

- Toronto Raptors become the most valuable franchise in the NBA

Even as someone from the Toronto area, I'd rather see the Grizzlies return to Vancouver, lol. You can also see the Leafs being so valuable hasn't actually been so good for Leafs fans.

[The New York Lion]

Originally Posted by isaidso

- 150m+ skyscraper count hits 800; most of any city outside Asia

NYC has roughly 4 times the amount of 150m skyscrapers as Toronto.

NYC's fundamentals are also extremely strong as the de facto capital of the world and the most powerful nation on the planet.

Toronto passing Chicago would be quite the feat.

For NYC, I hope we reach 100 supertalls.

[Zapatan]

A lot of these are not realistic, lol.

Since I move around I'll just do the US in general:

- 500m+ roof for NYC
- Another 400m+ roof for Chicago
- 300m towers in new cities around the US (Seattle / Dallas maybe)
- More abundance of 2-250m buildings in various cities
- High-speed rail
- Cracking down on crime and homelessness
- More political balance and less extremism

[Doady]

"Cracking down" on homelessness is probably not going to get people off the street unless it involves long prison sentences.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by The New York Lion

NYC has roughly 4 times the amount of 150m skyscrapers as Toronto.

NYC's fundamentals are also extremely strong as the de facto capital of the world and the most powerful nation on the planet.

Toronto passing Chicago would be quite the feat.

For NYC, I hope we reach 100 supertalls.

I know the figures but the fundamentals in Toronto and the trend lines suggest my forecast isn't pie in the sky. Toronto - Hamilton added 161,089 people 2021-2022. Recent Statistics Canada population growth figures suggest that number has ballooned 2022-2023. Even if we err on the side of caution and assume 150,000 new residents annually, that suggests the current pace of skyscraper construction will continue. The vast majority of newcomers are housed in multi-storey buildings rather than low density sprawl.

Municipalities, developers, and government are under intense pressure to not only maintain the current level of construction but to increase it. Building heights are increasing and 150m+ proposals are now common place due to the economics of high-rise construction here.

This below is from the SSP database. New York's number for U/C and Proposed doesn't look accurate but Toronto is definitely building more than New York. This will continue due to the demographic realities and urban planning policies in Toronto. New York's corporate base, as impressive as it is, can only fuel so much high-rise construction. Most skyscrapers these days are residential not commercial. Places like KL, Dubai, and Toronto prove one doesn't need to be in the most powerful nation in the world to have sky high demand for skyscrapers. One doesn't even need to be close to the most powerful.


# of 150m Buildings Toronto
Built: 93
U/C: 52
Proposed: 331

# of 150m Buildings Chicago
Built: 137
U/C: 2
Proposed: 11

# of 150m Buildings New York
Built: 324
U/C: 9*
Proposed: 54*


When the current slate of buildings U/C top out, Toronto (145) will have supplanted Chicago (139). 2025-2026? Toronto could see its number jump to 450-500 by 2035 .... and miles ahead of Chicago. It may sound outlandish/absurd today but Toronto pulling even with New York by 150m+ buildings looks reasonable considering the data. 100 SuperTalls in New York would be quite something, wouldn't it? That's one area where New York absolutely swamps Toronto. No contest.


Toronto: Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Brampton, Markham, Hamilton
New York: New York, Fort Lee, Guttenberg, Jersey City, New Rochelle, Newark, North Bergen, West New York, Franklin Township, White Plains
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501