The Autonomous Cars News, Development, and Discussion Thread

[Hatman]

Honda showcases autonomous lane-change, “virtual tow” tech
http://www.technologytell.com/in-car...tual-tow-tech/

Honda is showing off a couple of cool technologies at 2014 ITS World Congress in Detroit, MI, including its automated lane change capabilities and something it calls “virtual tow.”

According to a press release from Honda, this weekend’s ITS World Congress marks the first-ever U.S. demonstration of Honda’s automated driving technologies. The automated lane change tech reportedly can handle merging on and off freeways as well as routine lane changes. If that technology becomes widespread, maybe certain drivers in my hometown won’t be a public nuisance with their stubborn insistence that the yield sign at every merging intersection means traffic on the highway they’re trying to merge onto should stop and let them in. Ugh.

What’s even more interesting to me is Honda’s so-called Virtual Tow technology. The press release said it is intended to allow a Honda driver to assist another driver in distress by using V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle) communication. The driver in need of assistance reportedly can signal other automobiles by V2V, and an assisting driver can virtually “link” to the distressed vehicle and lead it to, well, wherever the “tow vehicle” takes it. The trailing vehicle takes its cues from the tow vehicle, Honda said.



In addition, Honda is showing off some other V2X tech. The automaker said its cars can talk to motorcycles (V2M), bicyclists (V2B), and even pedestrians (V2P). In the case of V2P and V2B, this is accomplished by using dedicated short-range communications (DSRC), the release said. DSRC reportedly will alert both the car and the pedestrian’s or bicyclist’s compatible smartphone of an impending collision, allowing both to take corrective action and exchange courteous messages. The system for V2M communication works with a motorcycle equivalent to V2V technology that is, in a sense, bilingual.

Finally, Honda said it would demonstrate its automated driving technology on an eight-mile loop in downtown Detroit to demonstrate automated vehicle steering and braking and the capability to enter and exit freeways, change lanes, and make other “sophisticated maneuvers” automatically. Part of the system makes use of connected car and cloud communication to detect and inform drivers of lane hazards, giving them an image of the hazard, Honda said. Vehicles trailing the hazard will automatically change lanes and continue driving without interruption, according to the release.

Honda R&D Americas, Inc. President Frank Paluch said, “The creation and deployment of advanced, intelligent transportation systems represent the new frontier in the effort to one day eliminate traffic collisions, injuries and fatalities. We will demonstrate our vision for realizing Honda’s dream of a collision-free society by showcasing our continued technological innovations in active safety, connected and automated vehicle technology.”

_________________________________________

Could Driverless Cars Help America Achieve Energy Independence?
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...e-energ-2.aspx

According to the Transportation Research Institute at the University of Michigan, U.S. fuel economy is now up to 25.8 mpg, up 24% since August of 2008. This is certainly great news to those who want to see America become less dependent on foreign oil, which made up 33% of oil consumed in the U.S. in 2013.

However, it's a far cry from President Obama's mandated 54.5 mpg by 2025, which the president has said "represents the single most important step we've ever taken to reduce our dependence on foreign oil."

Automakers such as General Motors (NYSE: GM ) are on board with the standards, with Greg Martin, executive director for communications for the automaker, stating, "Customers want higher fuel efficiency in their cars and trucks, and GM is going to give it to them. [...] We expect the rules to be tough, but we have a strong history of innovation, and we'll do our best to meet them."

As I've written before, Automakers are working hard to squeeze every last bit of efficiency from the internal combustion engine using smaller, more energy-dense engines that utilize super chargers, turbo chargers, and new 8, 9, or even 10 speed transmissions, as well as plug-in hybrid technology. Building vehicles out of greater amounts of lightweight aluminum, as Ford (NYSE: F ) is doing with its new F-150 pickup truck, is another approach.

However, now a new technology has arisen that promises to help America take its vehicle's fuel economy to new heights, and it hails from Silicon Valley, not Detroit.

Driverless cars: a panacea?
The adoption of driverless cars would solve many problems, including saving tens of thousands of lives, quadrupling highway capacity, and returning independence to those who are too elderly or physically unable to drive.

However, I'd like to focus on how autonomous vehicle technology could help America in its quest to raise its fuel economy and achieve independence from foreign oil.

Autonomous vehicles: a fuel economy revolution
There are three primary ways driverless vehicle technology will raise fuel economy. The first is more efficient vehicle spacing while driving on highways and interstates.

For example, autonomous vehicles, communicating their positions wirelessly, could travel very closely, while still maintaining better safety than human drivers. By drafting off each other in this way, wind resistance would be greatly reduced, and fuel economy would increase by 20%-30%, according to a study by the Rocky Mountain Institute. A second study, by the Tampa Hillsborough Expressway Authority, in 2013, found fuel savings of 28%.



Another benefit to driverless cars is that vehicles could be designed differently. For example, according to Bob Joop Goos, chairman of the International Organisation for Road Accident Prevention, "More than 90 percent of road accidents are caused by human error."

By creating safer highways and roads, vehicles could be redesigned from the ground up, for improved efficiency while still maintaining safety. For example, the Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) Model S achieved a five-star crash test rating across the board, making it one of the safest cars ever tested by the National Highways Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), because of its electric design. The lack of an engine up front created a massive crumple zone, and the extra rigidity of the battery placed in the floor (as well as its high-strength aluminum frame) increased the vehicle's structural strength to such an extent that the machine that was supposed to crush the roof broke.

The final way driverless cars will save on gas is by parking more efficiently. For example, an MIT study found that in urban areas, 40% of gas is wasted as drivers circle around looking for parking. Self driving (and parking) cars that communicate wirelessly could solve this problem.

GM just announced that its 2017 Cadillac CTS sedan will feature standard vehicle two vehicle (V2V) technology while another model will feature "super cruise," which will allow a car to lane follow, adjust speed, and brake autonomously, not just at highway speeds, but also in stop-and-go traffic.

Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk just announced that Tesla is performing feverish work on self-driving cars. In the past, Musk admitted that Tesla had taken part in technical discussions with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) , the world's leader in driverless car technology, who owns a fleet of automated Toyota Priuses that have logged over 700,000 accident-free miles.

Writing in MIT's Technology Review, Lee Gomes points out that even Google's driverless wonders can't avoid potholes, drive in the rain, or use 99% of public roads -- which explains Toyota's reluctance to continue supporting R&D into the technology. However, not all automakers are so ready to adopt this technology. Toyota (NYSE: TM ) , one of the leading innovators in driverless technology, is pulling out of its R&D efforts until it can be sure the technology is ready, according to deputy Chief of Safety Technology, Seigo Kuzumaki.

Foolish bottom line
Despite its current limitations, the benefits of driverless cars, to both safety and fuel efficiency, are simply too great to ignore. The NHTSA is currently working on new rules (to be put forth in 2016) that would mandate automakers include V2V technology in all new vehicles, setting the stage for companies such as GM, Ford, and Tesla to usher in a brave new future of driverless cars, increased safety, and quite possibly, American energy independence.

[Hatman]

Potential legislation on its way. This is important because every little action at this point sets precedents. All other legislation is based off of what is done at the very beginning.
Insurance Issues for Self-Driving Cars Addressed At Public Hearing
http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle...l#.VBfh2ZQ7um4

SAN JOSE, Calif., Sept. 14 -- The California Department of Insurance issued the following news release:

Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones today is holding a public hearing at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose to obtain public input regarding liability and insurance issues associated with self-driving cars.

"California is a leader in new technologies and business models. One such innovation - self-driving cars - holds the potential to dramatically change the world of transportation and potentially reduce accidents, injuries and deaths." said Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones. "While fully autonomous cars are not yet available, a number of self-driving features, such as self-parking cars and active collision avoidance systems are already in use. Based on the rapid advance of technology, it's entirely possible that fully autonomous cars will be available in a few years' time. We need to consider and be ready to answer questions around who will be responsible and what insurance will be available to mitigate losses that might occur in the operation of this new technology, so that the technology can achieve its potential while protecting consumers."

The Commissioner will hear from a number of companies that are developing self-driving cars and from representatives of insurance companies and other state agencies with whom the Department of Insurance is working with to make sure that public policy is in place to address this new technology.

Commissioner Jones recently toured a self-driving car research and development facility, met with engineers and designers, and rode in a self-driving car. "Riding in a car equipped with self-driving technology was a fascinating experience. The car safely moved through all sorts of complicated interactions with other cars, bike riders, and pedestrians, all the while driving on city streets," said Jones. "The self-driving car technology holds great promise and it is exciting to see self-driving car research, design and manufacturing occurring in California - demonstrating once again that California is an innovator."

[Hatman]

3 companies get Calif. self-driving car permits
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...rnia/15728503/

Volkswagen's Audi brand on Tuesday was the first automaker of three companies to get new permits issued by California for the testing of self-driving, or autonomous, cars on all the Golden State's roadways.

Mercedes-Benz and Google also got permits on the day that California's new laws governing the testing of automated vehicles take effect, according to the Associated Press.

"California roads are especially crucial to Audi Piloted driving testing because the state is home to the brand's Electronics Research Lab," said a statement from Audi. "ERL engineers are working on a wide range of automated driving issues, including human-machine interface prompts that indicate when the human or the vehicle" is driving.

California previously has permitted limited use of its roads for autonomous-car testing, such as by Google, in part because there was no specific law saying companies couldn't do so.

The state legislature decided to regulate the emerging technology on the way to eventual consumer use of such vehicles and in 2012 passed the law that took effect on Tuesday.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles wrote testing rules over the past year that require, among other things, the company doing the testing to carry at least $5 million insurance on each licensed test car, require a trained human "safety driver" behind the wheel on the road and regulate the reporting of any incidents.

On Tuesday, the AP reported, the state issued permits to three companies to test a total of 29 vehicles. With 25 vehicles, Google's souped-up Lexus SUVs are the biggest fleet. Mercedes has two and VW of America, which includes the VW and Audi brands, also has two.

[Hatman]

What driverless cars could mean for the P&C industry
http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2...e=3&page_all=1

Google’s driverless car looks amusing, with its sensory equipment strapped to the roof, but the property and casualty insurance industry shouldn’t smile. Google’s car is getting most of the press, but the autonomous car industry is growing far beyond Google’s efforts and should greatly reduce the risks involved in driving. The current $200 billion in annual premium for commercial and private auto insurance in the United States could decrease over the next five years by as much as $75 billion.

Recent Developments

The Nevada DMV put the Google car through a test to assess the car’s performance in May of this year. The modified Toyota Prius passed the test almost immediately. It came out later that Google got to choose a course, set specifications about the road and weather, and Google’s personnel had to take over the controls twice during the test. Given all that, proponents believe that the world will still change because the driverless car is compelling.

In January of this year, Morgan Stanley issued an estimate that the United States economy could save $1.3 trillion by moving to autonomous (driverless) cars. Auto companies are installing automatic driving features. Driving aids are available to keep us in our lanes. Cars are already warning us of impending accidents, applying the brakes when we don’t react quickly enough to avoid possible impacts, parking themselves, and have had automatic braking systems for decades. BMW already has driverless systems contained within its normal aerodynamic profile so that it doesn’t look like something Disney designed. Some believe the cost per unit for this technology will be about $3,000 in the near future.

Overall Cost Savings

Driver error is considered to be the main reason behind 90% of all crashes. The annual cost of crashes in the United States is said to be around $300 billion. Even considering the 16% uninsured autos, given the annual cost of auto insurance $300 billion appears overstated by more than double. Nonetheless, consider the main causes of accidents: alcohol, distracted driving, failure to stay in lanes, failure to yield right-of-way, erratic vehicle operation, over-correcting, drugs, and fatigue. It is obvious that an autonomous car might represent a reasonable alternative.

Even when factors such as mechanical failure, roadway, and the environment are causal it’s extremely probable that speeding, distraction, and outright inattention could make an accident much more severe and more frequent. Estimates for insurance savings are as high as 50%.

Savings for the Trucking Industry

Just this last week, Peterbilt demonstrated its autonomous driving technologies. Bill Kahn of Peterbilt said, “The autonomous truck of the future is an extension of existing, individual systems already available for today’s commercial vehicles.” Peterbilt is a Texas manufacturer of medium and heavy-duty trucks.

In July, Daimler had a similar demonstration of their autonomous truck on German highways. They also showed a video of a man sitting passively in a truck while the vehicle easily managed to steer itself.

That video was fifty years old! Naysayers who attack the driverless vehicles as “happening too quickly” need to think about the amount of time that has already been put into this transition.

The trucking industry is salivating over the $168 billion Morgan Stanley has projected they can save annually. Part of this reduction in expense is due to projected savings on insurance premiums.

The trucking industry seems to think a large amount of savings will be realized simply by keeping trucks in service 24/7 instead of allowing them to sit idle while waiting for drivers who are restricted by hour regulations.

The Change to Autonomous Vehicles Will Happen Quickly

There are savings to be had, but can it happen in five years?

Also last week, in addition to the announcement in the trucking industry, GM stated it would have hands-free driving and vehicle-to-vehicle communication by 2016 in their Super Cruise Cadillac system. The system is designed to allow the car to take over in congested stop-and-go traffic.

Organizations such as Central North America Trade Corridor Association (CNATCA.com) are determined to move quickly. They believe that our current east/west shipping lanes need supplements. They’ve proposed an autonomous corridor on U.S. Highway 83 from Mexico extending to Alaska, which splits the nation north and south through the plains states.

Because of the impact of fracking in the Bakken oil field of western North Dakota, such a corridor is desperately needed. Oil transportion is disrupting the area’s coal and grain shipments. Even a proposed new, electrified, double train track will not provide the freight volume needed.

“We believe the legislators in at least North and South Dakota will be receptive in this upcoming session to a proposal for testing semi-autonomous trucking along the corridor,” said Marlo Anderson, spokesman for CNATCA. “Companies like Integrated Roadway are already building roads with sensors, with ice and snow melting equipment built in.”

“Semi-autonomous trucking” involves convoys that are electronically tethered with a driver in the lead vehicle. Convoys would be formed outside congested areas. Before joining the convoy, and after the trucks arrive at destination ports, they could be either driven through congested areas to final destinations by remote control or by onboard drivers.

Insurance Underwriting Advantages

It is hard to imagine a person voluntarily relinquishing the pleasure involved in driving their private passenger car. I drove a fifteen-speed gravel truck as a summer job during college and thought it was fun. Yet, my days as an underwriter often made me wish long-haul truck drivers were a little less “fun-loving” and a lot more predictable. In retrospect, a driverless car seems like it might be an underwriter’s dream.

As an underwriter I once read a large loss report about a driver we insured who had hit an overhead bridge with his refrigerated trailer while hauling fruit from Texas to Minnesota. I could understand the driver miscalculating the height of the bridge. However, I was a lot less understanding a month later, when that same driver hit that same bridge on the other side with a newly refurbished trailer.

“The average tractor costs about $140,000,” Dale Bergstrom of Erickson/Larsen general agency offered. Bergstrom has been underwriting long-haul risks for five decades. “A trailer can cost between $40,000 and $200,000. The average price for physical damage and liability insurance for the average unit currently runs about $12,000 to $15,000. I’m reserving judgment on the overall impact on premium of autonomous freight hauling. There’s too much to shake out.”

Issues to Solve

It’s speculated that one of the problems with autonomous vehicles will be cargo coverage for unmanned units that are parked on the side of the road due to mechanical problems. That risk could be mitigated if the trucking industry has a fleet of pickups patrolling the freight corridors to provide protection.

Most experts indicate much more efficient fuel usage, but another problem suggested will be refueling. The corridors will probably have ports along the route, much like the current weigh stations, which are devoted to autonomous trucks.

Legal issues will be sorted. One issue might be the establishment of communal standards. What will take precedent in the computer’s hierarchy when a collision with another vehicle is imminent? Will the computer opt to take action to preserve assets, or lives? And, if lives are considered a priority, at what dollar amount do assets prevail? These now clinical decisions will become quite emotional under tragic circumstances.

Privacy is also a concern, but usage-based auto insurance pricing is already breaking down consumer resistance to onboard data gathering.

Fait Accompli

We are already driving cars that have “driverless” features. Many experts believe that the more this trend broadens, fewer and less severe accidents will occur. Many obstacles have been overcome. States have acted already to approve the testing of driverless cars and more seem ready.

Our industry needs to prepare for the premium loss we will sustain, over the next very few years. Before too many tears are shed, we should consider that the premiums for freight delivery-drones will be huge and a new source of revenue.

[Hatman]

Sometimes autonomous proposals look probable. Sometimes they also look cool. Oftentimes, they are neither:

This stained-glass driverless car is one designer's vision of the future
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/moto...160253312.html

British designer Dominic Wilcox has a distinct vision as to what the future of transportation will look like by the year 2059. Wilcox believes we will live in world free from traffic incidents, traveling in driverless cocoons that require none of the same safety regulations we see today – such as airbags, seat belts and even bumpers.
Debuting at the Dezeen and Mini Frontiers design festival in London this week, an exhibition set to demonstrate the future of mobility, Wilcox has unveiled his vision for the future: an autonomous car festooned in cathedral-like stained glass windows, with no seats inside – just a bed.
As you can see in the video below, Wilcox uses classic Mini wheels to pay homage to the British icon, and the handle from the Mini's diminutive trunk activates the hydraulic-assisted glass shell. The frame is simply made from wood, and there is no interior to speak of – just the bed – because Wilcox predicts we won't be concerned with safety; traffic accidents will become extinct thanks to a seamlessly integrated network of autonomous machines.

The idea of stained glass derived from a visit to Durham Cathedral in England, where Wilcox was struck by its beauty: "I wanted to bring the visual experience I had in the cathedral into a new, contemporary, three dimensional form," he says.



The hand cut glass utilizes copper foil technology, much like a Tiffany lamp. In Wilcox's mind, drivers won't own cars in the future, they'll order from a selection of vehicles to pick them up, choosing between various styles and themes, like a four-seater laid out as a retro 1960s restaurant, or a seven-seater decked out as a contemporary office – or even a one-seater mini cathedral car with a bed.

However we imagine the future to be, Wilcox's design is indeed thought provoking. It begs the question: Can a world without traffic accidents truly ever exist? And what will become of the car enthusiast?
Which ever way you spin it, the shape of transportation is ever evolving. I'm not sure I buy into WIlcox's entire vision, primarily because I believe there will always be some form of an avenue for those of us who love to drive. But every so often, like during a traffic-infested, god-awful early commute on the 101, a comfy bed in a glass box does sound mighty appealing.

[Perklol]

I hope this doesn't compete with scarce transit funding...

[Hatman]

Autonomous Cars: Elon Musk’s Comments Aren’t Surprising, Because Everyone Thinks Self Driving Is Coming Soon
http://www.ibtimes.com/autonomous-ca...riving-1691191

Auto industry insiders have been saying for a while that self-driving cars are coming soon, and many of the world’s biggest car companies are already testing the technology on public roads in the U.S., Japan and Britain. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Ford and Nissan are among the big players already offering some of these autonomous driving features — or are about to.

So when Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk recently offered up his prognosis for the technology, he joined the chorus. Most company executives have already said they expect autonomous driving to be widely available within 10 to 15 years. But the billionaire space-transport, solar-power and electric-car magnate is more bullish on how quickly the technology could be ready for consumers.

The ability for drivers to let their cars do the driving could be ready “in a six-year time frame,” Musk tells the Wall Street Journal in a report published Thursday. But, he adds, it will take several more years for governments to work out the industry guidelines for wide embrace of the innovation.

Nissan said last month it would have “commercially viable” autonomous driving in its cars in six years, so Musk’s comments echoing this time frame aren’t surprising. Tesla isn’t sitting idle on developing its own self-driving technology, either.

Trip Chowdhry of San Francisco-based Global Equities Research observed on a recent tour of the automaker’s Fremont, California, factory that there’s a section called “Driver Assist” on the floor, suggesting that Tesla could soon unveil some self-driving features. The upcoming Tesla Model X crossover SUV would be an ideal candidate for these advanced safety features, like crash avoidance and self-navigation, because Tesla is marketing it as a family car. The Model X’s gull-wing doors, for example, are designed to allow parents to stand up completely in the back seat for more easily loading groceries or putting babies in rear safety seats.

Earlier this week Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a research note that “the end of human driving” will happen within 15 years, a prognosis that includes the time it will take for regulatory hurdles to be overcome.

That estimate coincides with what Peter Mertens, the head of research and development at Swedish automaker Volvo said in an interview with Automotive News last month: that “autonomous driving is going to happen in the next 10 or 15 years.”

_______________________________________________________________
This Is What California's Autonomous Vehicle Driving Permit Looks Like
http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars...-like-17221571

On Tuesday, Audi became the first car manufacturer to receive a California autonomous car driving permit (as of this writing, Mercedes-Benz and Google have also filed for and received permits). The permit was presented to Audi by Sen. Alex Padilla, who signed the state's new autonomous vehicle laws that went into effect Tuesday; the law will allow for the legal testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads.

According to Brad Stertz, Audi's corporate communications manager, Audi has two cars registered on the permit, both capable of Level 3 autonomous driving, the official classification for a car that can handle many of the driving responsibilities but isn't fully autonomous (Level 4.)

"We had been doing testing in California because there were no regulations in place," Stertz says. "But now that the state enacted laws on Sept. 16, it was crucial for us to get the permit right away because our Electronics Research Lab in Belmont, Calif., is a key player in the development of our technology globally."

We got a look at the actual permit today, and its wording pretty much reiterates the new state law. Someone must be in the car and able to take over all functions at all times, and there must be a clear mechanism for engaging and disengaging autonomous mode. But there are a few nuggets worth exploring.

One is the specific mention of a visual indicator that clearly signals to the driver when autonomous mode is engaged. Making sure the driver is completely familiar with the technology and understands when the car is under machine control versus human control is something carmakers must get absolutely right. Consider what GM is doing with its Super Cruise technology, which allows the car to take over steering and pedal operations in certain highway conditions. Earlier this month GM announced that Super Cruise will be available in select 2017 model year cars. Those cars will likely have the same indicator that we experienced when testing Super Cruise—a large light bar on the top of the steering wheel that indicates when the car is in control (green), when the driver needs to take over (red), and when the driver has control (blue). Hard to miss that. Oh, and it issues an audible alert as well.

Something else to consider: According to the permit, should the driver be unable to take control of the vehicle during an emergency or system failure while autonomous mode is engaged, "the autonomous vehicle shall be capable of coming to a complete stop." Pretty important! But also a little scary when you think about a car just stopping on the highway. After all, the permit doesn't say the car must be able to safely pull off the road and come to a complete stop. And in reality, that's probably asking a lot for now. It's a reminder that if we want to test autonomous vehicles in the public domain seriously, we have to understand there will be risks. It reminds me of something interesting Chris Urmon, head of Google's self-driving car project, said about insurance and autonomous cars when I interviewed him two years ago:

"As we develop technology that is self-driving, we're responsible for that. If we're telling someone riding in one of our vehicles that they're safe to not pay attention to driving, then during that phase that we've kinda told them that's okay, then we're responsible for that action. I think it'll be quite clear. I think in the longer term that there are things we can do that will feed the evolution of this technology in the same way.

"When the first airplanes flew, there was a balance on the liability that an airline has in events of accidents or lost luggage or whatever. Then as a society we said, 'Well, there are risks inherent to air travel and we want to further the adoption of air travel so we're going to introduce legislation that puts the limits on the liability so that we encourage this industry to blossom.'

"I can see down the line that something like that might happen because we'll look at the societal benefit of this technology, the freedom for people to move that don't, the reduction in congestion, the increase in safety, the happiness and wellbeing brought by the fact that you didn't spend an hour cursing life in commuting and we'll say, 'You know what? It's worth kind of defraying the risk across a broader base than just the manufacturers of this technology, assuming they meet some kind of bar." No, I don't think [Insurance] will be the thing that stops this from happening.'"

Lastly, it's worth noting that the permit calls for an extra device—separate from the data recorders already required in cars—to specifically monitor and record the autonomous systems and their sensors. On top of that, the information must remain accessible for three years. As optimistic as lawmakers and auto manufacturers are about the potential for autonomous vehicles, they also know that one bad accident could stymie progress and reaffirm the public's worst fears. In case an accident does happen—and eventually, it will—at least they'll know exactly what went wrong.

Besides, they'll need that information to know whom to blame.

[Hatman]

• Video Link

I really like how this video says the Truck Driver can do other 'tasks,' like 'communication' - and he reaches for his tablet. What 'communication?' Really, if they have to keep people in the cab of autonomous trucks then sign me up! I'll be paid to be a 'truck driver' and spend my whole day surfing Skyscraper Page. What could be better than that?

[Hatman]

A nice summary of the revolution soon to be on hour hands:

Autonomy: The Self-Driving Car and You
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-s...b_5890144.html

Audi announced last week that it has become the first automaker to receive approval to test its self-driving cars on California's public roads. Autonomy (both technical and political) is about to shift into high gear.

We could be forgiven for thinking this is a vaguely interesting gewgaw in a world benumbed by technological gadgetry. The iPhone Six is out, for crying out loud... But like those who scoffed at Karl Benz's strange "Motorwagen" in 1900, we'd be overlooking a revolution.

The thing about self-driving cars is that it's not about the car, it's about movement, and the implications of autonomous movement are huge. Give it a few years, but with a bit educated imagination we can see:

- Zero ownership: with "selfie" cars, there is really very little reason for owning a vehicle. If in a matter of mere moments you could "order up" a car of your choice from a fleet of free-roaming, auto-piloted cars, then why in the world would you need one parked in the driveway? Vehicles would be owned and operated by a handful of efficient companies that know just the right number of vehicles to have operating at any one time to serve the maximum clientele. The vehicles would be immaculately cleaned, well maintained, and safe. Doubtful? Today's rental car companies do this already...

- Accurate "sizing": if owners are no longer tethered to their vehicle, the free market will quickly discern the right mix of vehicle types. The vast majority of daily commuting is by one person with practically no cargo. Commuters, then, are likely to order a small, compact, cheap car for that morning's trip instead of, say, a truck (how many empty pickups do we see charging around town today?). If they need to hit Home Depot on their way home, they order the truck instead of the Vespa... The idle capacity stored in our vehicles that we obligingly pay for, maintain, park, and pay insurance on will largely disappear.

- A real-estate revolution: if vehicles are constantly on the move, being perpetually routed to where they are needed, parking lots become largely obsolete. Some of the world's most valuable real estate is locked away under asphalt, particularly in urban centers. This use of space is expensive and wasteful ($538/month in midtown Manhattan, $161/month national average). As parking lots disappear, they will be repurposed toward higher and better uses (how about "parks"?). Architecturally, eliminating the need to store parked vehicles will be an aesthetic boon. Gone will be the monolithic parking garage; gone too, will be the ugly double-door façade of the modern suburban home.

- Freed resources. There are an estimated 253 million operable cars and trucks in the U.S. today. Conservatively estimating a $12,000 value per vehicle, the nation is sitting on about 3 trillion dollars (nearly the annual government budget) in mechanical capacity that often sits unused. Autonomous vehicles, while certainly not free, will almost certainly be used more efficiently, channeling that capital into more worthwhile pursuits (Toaster Strudels and Gaming Consoles probably...). The other side of the coin is the freed human capital. We spend around 540 hours a year in our cars, 38 in traffic alone. If you're like a frightening majority of us, you spend tiny slivers of that time texting, tweeting, grooming, and brokering peace with kids in the back. But mostly, the driver is engaged in trying to outmaneuver his or her traffic foes; stopping at lights, obeying the speed limit, maintaining vehicle separation, and generally avoiding one of our leading causes of death. Autonomy frees those hours for (conceivably) better use, hours almost certainly better spent than driving badly...

Those are just the obvious, logistical impacts of autonomous locomotion. The other glaring benefit (and don't tell the bureaucrats) is that it helps make portions of the state obsolete. With little or no vehicle ownership, the requirement for drivers' licenses, vehicle registration, titling, and insurance largely goes by the board. California legislators are giddy about their stylish new regulatory permits for driverless cars; they've also unwittingly sounded the death knell for the DMV. Few tears will be shed...

Of course, there's always a good chance for regulatory buffoonery. It seems quaint now, but the English Parliament passed a series of Locomotive Acts, culminating in its 1865 decree that all self-propelled automobiles be restricted to 4 miles per hour in the country and 2 miles per hour in city limits. Known as the "Red Flag Act", it required all vehicles be manned by a crew of three, as well as a pedestrian to walk ahead of a laden vehicle with a red flag to warn the world of their non-traditional existence.

The rules made a certain amount of sense (particularly to those in the horse-drawn carriage industry), but for 37 years they thwarted the United Kingdom's embrace of the automobile. There will almost certainly be an equivalent of the Red Flag Act (is there any more appropriate name?), and administrators with ties to those heavily invested in the status quo will make political hay by convincing us that the rules "just make sense." Fair warning.

In the end, though, the force of the autonomous individual is a universal solvent, and the self-driving car will be a cheerful addition to our modern age. Buckle up, it's going to be an exciting ride...

[Hatman]

Two interesting developments, and a discussion on NPR:

BMW To Test Autonomous Cars In China
http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1...otorAuthority)

L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti: We Will Be the First City to Do Autonomous Vehicles Right
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/...hicles/380915/

Hands-Free, Mind-Free: What We Lose Through Automation
http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechcons...gn=digitallife

[Hatman]

I agree with the headline, but not so much with the amazingly partisan article:

Ken Braun: Rail transit advocates and governments are not ready for the robocar revolution
http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/in...t_advocat.html

Six years from now Nissan is expected to be selling “highly autonomous” vehicles, cars that mostly pilot themselves and need human operators only for “extraordinary” or “unanticipated” situations.

Google has done extensive testing of these smart cars on our roads and may have them in consumer hands as soon as 2017. Policy Implications of Autonomous Vehicles, a new analysis from the free market Cato Institute, asserts these machines and the market for them will be transforming our world for the better very soon, but that our governments aren’t ready for the robocar revolution at all.

One major misstep in the making is the mania of rail transit spending.

The federal government incentivizes cities to build highly expensive urban rail systems (such as subways and streetcars) on the assumption that Americans will gladly give up their cars and turn the driving over to the train operators. But trains can only deliver a tiny few from doorstep to doorstep, leaving the majority of intended customers needing personal cars to get from home to transit station, and even station to destination.

Transit requires $3 in subsidies for every dollar paid in fares, and still the decades of spending hasn’t moved Americans out of their cars. But robocars really can do the driving to deliver from doorstep to destination and back, finally satisfying the overpromised convenience rail never fulfilled.

On the congestion front, consider the adaptive cruise controls already available in advanced passenger cars. These allow vehicles to automatically adjust speeds to a safe following distance with the car ahead. Studies have shown traffic congestion would be cut in half if just 20 percent of the cars on the road used this technology that’s already available. Robocars take this to another level, controlling the stopping and basic navigation as well, allowing cars to operate much closer together and safer.

Within a decade or so, pervasive use of smart cars will obliterate the already fragile case for spending billions on rail transit. As a point of comparison, the Cato study notes that personal auto ownership leaped from five to 55 percent of American families 14 years after Henry Ford built his assembly line. Yet transit advocates and Congress keep shoveling cash into the transit furnace as if their dinosaurs can survive the meteor strike.

The argument for widespread and swift consumer acceptance of robocars isn’t hard to make and has been made in this space before. A car that drives itself is worth vastly more than a conventional car to any purchaser because it adds years back to lives. Rather than lose a half dozen hours or more per week doing what a computer can do, a commuter can read, sleep, watch a movie or get a start on the workday. Average car buyers have an incentive to spend more for such convenience, and robocar makers have an incentive to find a price point where such miracles are available to most drivers. This same market magic allowed Ford to rapidly put the horse and buggy out of business.

The Cato study also worries the government may do too much to “help” the robocar revolution, such as insisting upon certain types of vehicle-to-vehicle communications rather than letting the manufacturers themselves figure it out. The argument here is similar to the transit car concern: Whatever the government decides to build will quickly become obsolete and retard progress rather than advance it.

The report advises the ideal role for politicians is to improve the roads and traffic signalling mechanisms we already have, which both alleviates traffic problems today and literally paves the way for a better future.

Ken Braun was a legislative aide for a Republican lawmaker in the Michigan House and worked for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. He has assisted in a start-up effort to encourage employers to provide economic education to employees, and is currently the director of policy for InformationStation.org. His employer is not responsible for what he says here, on Facebook, or Twitter ... or in Spartan Stadium on game days.

I think that it is true that transportation planners will be caught by surprise by autonomous cars, and that with that advent nearly all of their long-term plans will need to be completely redone. Highways will not need to be widened, lanes will not need to be added, and parking-lots will become completely irrelevant, which will require massive zoning changes and parking requirements - just to name a few examples.
But to say that rail has no place in this future is silly. Rail is still superior to any autonomous car network in moving many people within dense areas, and even moving people from dense to rural areas. Where rail is designed to do these things, it will stand up well to the autonomous revolution (just like rail systems did with the last transportation revolution, the privately-owned car). Where rail transit does not do this, perhaps the article is right.

[dubu]

i think driverless shuttles/ busses would be better for cities because there would be less driverless vehicles getting in the way of pedestrians.

[Hatman]

^^^
Autonomous shuttles are a great idea. Direct non-stop shuttles between high-density areas of the city could replace many bus routes and raise ridership (depending on the areas, of course).

In the news:
Elon Musk: Tesla 90% autonomous in 2015
http://money.cnn.com/video/technolog...ney/index.html

(No text, just a 44 second video when you click the link.)

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Hatman

But to say that rail has no place in this future is silly. Rail is still superior to any autonomous car network in moving many people within dense areas, and even moving people from dense to rural areas. Where rail is designed to do these things, it will stand up well to the autonomous revolution (just like rail systems did with the last transportation revolution, the privately-owned car). Where rail transit does not do this, perhaps the article is right.

Take Seattle as an example. The mode split for commuters going into downtown during rush hour is even between public transit and private vehicle (43%/43%). So in order for autonomous vehicles to accommodate both transit commuters and private vehicle commuters, capacity on roads would need to be doubled. With vehicle to vehicle communication, doubling of road capacity should be easily achievable, rendering Seattle's light rail obsolete. It's likely autonomous vehicles will much more than double road capacity, rendering rail transit in most cities obsolete.

[Hatman]

I'm not very familiar with Seattle or it's light rail, so I won't argue that Seattle's system will not become obsolete. There are many rail transit systems which are applied very poorly to their urban areas that will become obsolete, for sure. But I do not believe that rail transit in and of itself will become obsolete. Here's why:
1) Without all the parking infrastructure, cities will be allowed to become more dense and therefore more walkable, which benefits transit of all types, including rail.
2) Car ownership will decrease dramatically, as the cost of cars themselves and especially the cost of insurance for owning a car goes up. People will rely much more on ride-sharing of cars, which benefits transit because it fits in with the ride-sharing 'culture' (by which I mean, why bother to call up a robo taxi if there is a convenient rail line nearby that takes you where you want to go, has good frequency, and pricing comparable to ride sharing?)
3) Autonomous Vehicles don't have to be cars. They can also be trains. Rail transit runs in trains of multiple cars all hooked together with low frequencies (relatively) because they must be controlled by a human operator. When train cars control themselves, why hook them together? Instead of a four car train that arrives every 20 minutes, make it a 1 car train that arrives every five minutes. That kind of frequency is what is needed to make rail transit more attractive.
4) Autonomous vehicles can be more easily tracked, and therefor more equitably charged. Congestion pricing and vehicle-miles-traveled will finally be able to happen because it is not drivers being tracked (which makes it a privacy issue) but the vehicles that are being tracked (making it a system or even safety issue). Thus, automobiles will finally pay a rate much closer to the actual cost of their trip. I've already published on this threat a tentative Google Taxi business plan that shows they plan to charge about $0.50 per mile. The cost to move a passenger per mile by light rail ranges between $0.05 and $0.20 per mile, meaning that rail transit will almost certainly be more affordable than hiring a taxi, or even owning your own car (which according to the AAA costs more than $0.50 per mile. Go check it out.)

In regards to capacity, though, it seems to me that the increase in capacity that comes from use of autonomous cars decreases as the road becomes more and more local. Freeways and other grade-separated roadways will benefit enormously from autonomous technology Major arterial will also benefit, but they will see proportionally less benefit than highways because they are not grade separated. Local roads will still benefit, but not nearly so much as the other two because a local road is dedicated to accessing the adjacent properties. And then throw in all the things that won't ever be autonomous, such as pedestrians and cyclists, and soon the only benefit you see is from safety, not capacity.
What I'm saying is that the ability to move people over roadways will benefit from autonomous cars, but that the capacity to deliver people to their destinations may not be so dramatically affected. The ability to downsize highways from 100 feet wide to maybe 60 or 50 or even 40 feet wide may be the most visible effect of autonomous cars on the transportation scene, because I don't anticipate the mode-split changing a whole lot -so long as the rail transit line in question is applied well to its urban area.

[Hatman]

I found this cool video the other day. The part featuring autonomous cars starts at 4:56, though the whole thing is worth watching.
• Video Link

[Hatman]

Source:
http://news.boldride.com/2014/10/how...illions/58820/

[Hatman]

A few days late, but still very big news:
TESLA RELEASES FIRST VERSION OF 'AUTOPILOT'

The launch of Dual Motor Model S coincides with the introduction of a standard hardware package that will enable autopilot functionality. Every single Model S now rolling out of the factory includes a forward radar, 12 long range ultrasonic sensors positioned to sense 16 feet around the car in every direction at all speeds, a forward looking camera, and a high precision, digitally controlled electric assist braking system.

Building on this hardware with future software releases, we will deliver a range of active safety features, using digital control of motors, brakes, and steering to avoid collisions from the front, sides, or from leaving the road.

Model S will be able to steer to stay within a lane, change lanes with the simple tap of a turn signal, and manage speed by reading road signs and using active, traffic aware cruise control. It will take several months for all Autopilot features to be completed and uploaded to the cars.

Our goal with the introduction of this new hardware and software is not to enable driverless cars, which are still years away from becoming a reality. Our system is called Autopilot because it’s similar to systems that pilots use to increase comfort and safety when conditions are clear. Tesla’s Autopilot is a way to relieve drivers of the most boring and potentially dangerous aspects of road travel – but the driver is still responsible for, and ultimately in control of, the car.

The Autopilot hardware opens up some exciting long term possibilities. Imagine having your car check your calendar in the morning (a feature introduced in Software v6.0), calculate travel time to your first appointment based on real time traffic data, automatically open the GARAGE DOOR with Homelink, carefully back out of a tight garage, and pull up to your door ready for your commute. Of course, it could also warm or cool your car to your preferences and select your favorite morning news stream.

The introduction of this hardware is just the first step for Autopilot in Model S. We will continue to develop new capabilities and deliver them through over-the-air software updates, keeping our customers at the forefront of driving TECHNOLOGY.

Read more at:http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/dual...-and-autopilot

With these additions, I believe this makes the Tesla S the vehicle with the most autonomous features available on the market today. Good on you, Mr. Musk!

• Video Link

[Hatman]

These ideas are worth considering, even though I doubt they will become as much a problem as these articles make them out to be. Neither transit nor sprawl just happen, they are encouraged through various means (incentives/penalties). So many of the right steps have been taken to encourage one and halt the other in recent years that it makes me skeptical of people who claim some big new disaster is looming (especially if one of them quotes Randal O'Toole!). Still though, better to be well read just in case...

Whoops: The Self-Driving Tesla May Make Us Love Urban Sprawl Again
http://www.wired.com/2014/10/tesla-s...ng-car-sprawl/

Elon Musk announced last week that the Model S will feature “autopilot,” an ability to take over for the DRIVER in limited situations. The move closes a gap between Tesla and more established automakers, which have provided increasing levels of autonomous tech. It will net the young company quite a windfall and make driving safer and easier for its customers. It’s a significant step toward a future where cars drive themselves, and doing so with electricity offers an enticing view of a future where cars are awesome and the atmosphere is squeaky clean.

Unless the new Tesla and other autonomous vehicles end up doing more harm than good to the planet.

As driving becomes less onerous and computer-controlled systems reduce traffic, some experts worry that will eliminate a powerful incentive—commuting sucks—for living near cities, where urban density makes for more efficient sharing of resources. In other words, autonomous vehicles could lead to urban sprawl.

It’s simple, says Ken Laberteaux, a senior scientist at TOYOTA. If you make transportation faster, easier and perhaps cheaper, then people won’t mind commuting. “What a consumer is expected to do is see what they can gain by moving a little further from the job centers or the cultural centers,” he says. That’s bad news: Urban sprawl is linked to economic, environmental, and health hardships.

Proponents of autonomous cars predict that once humans are no longer responsible for driving, we’ll see a decrease in crashes, a reduction in congestion and a spike in ride sharing. The current model, in which people own or LEASE A CAR , could fundamentally change to a subscription model in which people simply summon a car when they need one, and it appears, all by itself. Laberteaux says such a shift is possible, but won’t happen for a long time.

Self-driving cars might one day lead to a decrease in personal car ownership, and an increase in walking-oriented lifestyles. But first, we’ve got to live through the phase of semi-autonomous driving. Those cars will likely need human intervention at least some of the time, so they won’t change the current ownership model. They will, however, make driving way more convenient, incentivizing long commutes.

Laberteaux’s not the only one concerned about this. Autonomous vehicles should ease highway congestion, and commuters will be able to catch up on work or sleep en route to the office. That limits the incentive to trade your McMansion for a brownstone, says Reid Ewing, director of the University of Utah’s Metropolitan Research Center. The implications of this go beyond transportation; in a 2014 report for advocacy group Smart Growth America, Ewing linked sprawl to obesity and economic immobility.

Ewing likens autonomous driving to the construction of “superhighways” during the post-war boom years, which spurred suburbanization. “If you can travel at higher speeds with less congestion and you can use your time productively while you’re traveling in a self-driving car, the generalized cost of travel will be less on a vehicle-per-mile basis,” says Ewing. “Just like when, before the interstate system, people were traveling at 30 miles per hour, there wasn’t nearly the spread of development that there is today.”

What’s interesting is that the potential for increased suburbanization comes as many American metropolitan area are seeing a reduction in sprawl, in large part through a city-loving “Echo Boomer” generation coming into the workforce. According to a report Rutgers University published last month, population growth in New York City since 2010 has surpassed its suburban communities for the first time since World War II.

So how can urban planners ensure that trend toward urbanization doesn’t reverse again? Use traditional tools like zoning, pricing, and urban design, says Ratna Amin, director of transportation policy at the Bay Area planning NONPROFIT SPUR. “Transit sprawl and autonomous vehicle sprawl, these things happen in the absence of growth management,” says Amin. “We can put boundaries on sprawl.”

SPUR, like like-minded organizations, advocates for subsidized share CAR PARKING , COMPETITIVE PRICING for suburban parking, to make driving less appealing. The implementation of high-speed bus systems makes it easier to get around with a personal vehicle. The risk of autonomous-induced sprawl, Amin argues, makes priorities like these more important. The conversation has just begin, she says, but it’s crucial that these things are worked out before, and not after, the self-driving cars show up.

__________________________

In Smart Vehicle World, Less Need For Mass Transit?
http://blogs.rollcall.com/the-contai...-transit/?dcz=

Picture a brave new world in which commuting to work will be faster and safer and in which traditional mass transit systems will wither away in many cities.

That was the future as sketched by one free-market-oriented transportation expert Tuesday at a panel on autonomous vehicles at the libertarian Cato Institute.

“I think autonomous vehicles will just about completely replace the need for mass transit” in all but the six biggest U.S. cities, said Randal O’Toole, a senior fellow at Cato.


“I can’t see that there’s going to be a need at all” for mass transit in most places in the United States once self-driving vehicles become widely available, he said.

O’Toole argued that cities such as Seattle and Portland, Ore., which are now investing billions of dollars in light rail and street car infrastructure, or as O’Toole put it, “in antiquated TECHNOLOGY that’s slow, that has low capacities” are making a policy blunder, in his view.

But, we asked O’Toole, in a world of autonomous vehicles, wouldn’t the roads and highways become even more jammed at peak commuting times?

“Autonomous vehicles are going to relieve congestion by doubling to tripling the capacity of our roads to move people,” he said. “The congestion relief provided by autonomous vehicles will more than make up for the transit riders shifting to autonomous vehicles.”

He explained that there will be more vehicles on the roads but “the autonomous vehicles have faster reflexes than human-driven vehicles. And because of those faster reflexes, you’ll be able to triple, possibly even quadruple, the capacity of the roads. We’ve seen demonstrations of autonomous vehicles going 70 miles an hour, one car length apart. That would be quadruple the capacity of our current highways.”

O’Toole argued that there’s no need to invest money in vehicle-to-infrastructure TECHNOLOGY that would allow a control center to regulate vehicle speeds or gather data for traffic management or road maintenance purposes.

“Maintaining that smart infrastructure is going to be very expensive and is not going to work very well. It’s much better to have ‘dumb’ infrastructure and let the smarts be in the vehicle,” he said.

Asked why some planners see the need for vehicle-to-infrastructure technology, O’Toole said, “First, there’s a big industry built around that…. It’s in their interest to see that happen. Second, government wants to have control. The idea that autonomous vehicles are running out there without any tracking, without any central computer telling them where to go, that’s losing control, and they don’t want to lose that control.”

[Hatman]

Audi’s Autonomous RS 7 Successfully Laps Hockenheimring At Race Pace: Video
http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1...ace-pace-video

At the season finale for Germany’s DTM touring car series, held at the Hockenheimring over the weekend, Audi demonstrated a self-driving RS 7 concept car that could lap the circuit at race speeds. The video shows the successful lap, which Audi tells us took just over two minutes. That’s not bad at all considering it takes the R8 supercar a similar time to lap the circuit with a professional DRIVER in its V-8 guise.
...
• Video Link