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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 2:59 AM
CaliNative CaliNative is offline
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Fires, earthquakes, high living costs etc.--is the "California Dream" Dying?

One thing after another out her in Cali-land. Fires, quakes, droughts, floods, record homelessness, traffic gridlock, impossible taxes & housing costs. Is the "California Dream" moribund, or is this just a lull? In recent years more Californians have left than newcomers have arrived...except for foreign immigrants. They still believe apparently. Maybe the "California Dream" was just a mirage anyway, dreamed up by real estate hucksters in the late 19th-early 20th century. But at least back then there was plenty of cheap land to build on. Now real estate is almost unaffordable for most and the traffic barely moves. So maybe this time the "dream" is really ending?

Is anyone on this forum planning to move TO California? How many of you in Cali are planning an exit? I am considering it.

Last edited by CaliNative; Nov 4, 2019 at 5:44 AM.
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 4:01 AM
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LosAngelesSportsFan LosAngelesSportsFan is offline
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Utter nonsense. Yes, we have problems, but we always have so. Most of our issues are because California is such a popular destination and has been for so long.

One example... 90% of my building of 168 units is from out of state and they continue to move her en masse. The rest of Downtown, Hollywood, the Westside and Koreatown are all full of out of towers as well. Im sure the Bay Area and San Deigo are very similar. Entertainment, Tech, Aerospace, Architecture, Great Schools.. These are all magnets for immigrants, domestic and international.
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 4:08 AM
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Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan View Post
Utter nonsense. Yes, we have problems, but we always have so. Most of our issues are because California is such a popular destination and has been for so long.

One example... 90% of my building of 168 units is from out of state and they continue to move her en masse. The rest of Downtown, Hollywood, the Westside and Koreatown are all full of out of towers as well. Im sure the Bay Area and San Deigo are very similar. Entertainment, Tech, Aerospace, Architecture, Great Schools.. These are all magnets for immigrants, domestic and international.
Utter nonsense is right. Just like "The Big One is coming", I've been hearing this for quite a long time now. California had a big recession in the early 1990s that took a while to shake, and during that period, we had the LA riots and the Northridge Earthquake, and people were talking about the California dream "dying." My neighborhood has had and continues to have quite a number of cars with out-of-state plates, and most of them later on switch to California plates.

I've always entertained the idea of living outside the US; if I were to leave California, it would be to leave the US, not move to another goddamn state. I love California; it's been my home since forever, and I'm pretty sure I'll be here for quite a while.
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 5:30 AM
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Utter nonsense is right. Just like "The Big One is coming", I've been hearing this for quite a long time now. California had a big recession in the early 1990s that took a while to shake, and during that period, we had the LA riots and the Northridge Earthquake, and people were talking about the California dream "dying." My neighborhood has had and continues to have quite a number of cars with out-of-state plates, and most of them later on switch to California plates.

I've always entertained the idea of living outside the US; if I were to leave California, it would be to leave the US, not move to another goddamn state. I love California; it's been my home since forever, and I'm pretty sure I'll be here for quite a while.
I hope your optimism is correct, but to me the problems in CA seem to be piling up, largely unsolved. The housing shortage and unaffordability is especially daunting. This period seems more challenging than past periods of trouble. We have never had wildfires like those of the past few years. We have never had a period when large numbers of people can no longer afford housing. We have never seen more homeless, everywhere, not just skid row. Maybe we will muddle through like we have before. Maybe housing will be built that people can afford. But those in charge seem to jabber on and little gets done. I love California too, but the trends I see leave me worried.
     
     
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 5:48 AM
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Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan View Post
Utter nonsense. Yes, we have problems, but we always have so. Most of our issues are because California is such a popular destination and has been for so long.

One example... 90% of my building of 168 units is from out of state and they continue to move her en masse. The rest of Downtown, Hollywood, the Westside and Koreatown are all full of out of towers as well. Im sure the Bay Area and San Deigo are very similar. Entertainment, Tech, Aerospace, Architecture, Great Schools.. These are all magnets for immigrants, domestic and international.
I just see the problems piling up. If the homeless problem was solved with more housing units, I'd feel a lot better about things. But right now it seems for every homeless person housed, ten more show up. Affordable housing needs to be built faster. It is a crisis. Dang NIMBY's won't allow it. Interestingly, after I wrote this thread, I noticed a similar pessimistic piece in the New York Times today--"It's the End of California as We Know It" by Farhad Manjoo. It is in the Sunday Review section, page 3. I hope the problems are solved. I love California too. Born here.

Last edited by CaliNative; Nov 4, 2019 at 6:15 AM.
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 7:19 AM
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My impression is that "California" is becoming more of a caste society in general. That's how typhus-ridden homeless encampments can exist concurrently with pricey new developments and apartment buildings. It doesn't indicate "collapse," but it does mean that the old "middle America" ideal of cohesive, middle-class-dominated communities is probably dead in most of California. California's future might look more like other stratified societies outside of the US, except with somewhat more wealth in the upper income deciles.
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 8:04 AM
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i recall seeing this edition of time magazine while in high school, circa 1991.



28 years later, the same kind of naysaying continues. extraordinary things have happened since then that i'm not sure anyone could have predicted, mostly good, some bad. there are all kinds of things that seemed like huge problems in the 80s, 90s, and 00s that have been solved or massively improved.

the only true threat to california's vibrancy and diversity and sustainability is affordability, and small steps in the right direction are being made. it won't be the end of the world if the population grows more slowly or flattens out in the meantime.
     
     
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 8:14 AM
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I work with a ton of California transplants, mostly younger and working class or lower middle class. They came here because they could afford to live normal lives on what they were making. It used to be that it was rare to meet Californians who had moved to Minneapolis - that seems to have started to change over the last few years. I get the impression that it is mostly the economic pressures that are pushing people out and less the environmental ones.
     
     
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 10:55 AM
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I work with a ton of California transplants, mostly younger and working class or lower middle class. They came here because they could afford to live normal lives on what they were making. It used to be that it was rare to meet Californians who had moved to Minneapolis - that seems to have started to change over the last few years. I get the impression that it is mostly the economic pressures that are pushing people out and less the environmental ones.
Do most Californians moving to Minn. adjust well to the cold winters? Or do they whine about them? When they move to Phoenix, Las Vegas and the big Texas cities I'm sure the ex-Californians whine about the summer heat, at least the ones from the coast. The ones coming from Fresno are used to the heat.

Last edited by CaliNative; Nov 4, 2019 at 11:16 AM.
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by mthd View Post
i recall seeing this edition of time magazine while in high school, circa 1991.



28 years later, the same kind of naysaying continues. extraordinary things have happened since then that i'm not sure anyone could have predicted, mostly good, some bad. there are all kinds of things that seemed like huge problems in the 80s, 90s, and 00s that have been solved or massively improved.

the only true threat to california's vibrancy and diversity and sustainability is affordability, and small steps in the right direction are being made. it won't be the end of the world if the population grows more slowly or flattens out in the meantime.
Yes, this is not the first time the "dream" has been said to be endangered, but our troubles do seem more daunting. At least there have been no major earthquakes near L.A./S.F./S.D. recently. Most have been out in the boonies like Ridgecrest. Yes, I agree that housing affordability is the most important issue. Even many professionals can't afford housing prices in the coastal metros. Teachers in Silicon Valley and Santa Monica have to commute from places like Stockton and Corona if they want to afford homes, or fork over a good part of their salary in rent to live near work. Higher density housing seems like the solution, but the NIMBYs always oppose that.

Last edited by CaliNative; Nov 4, 2019 at 11:13 AM.
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 12:06 PM
ChiMIchael ChiMIchael is offline
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No. Just absolutely too much economic investment.
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 1:16 PM
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What is the California dream? To become a famous? Have a home and backyard? Decent middle-class standard of living? Be tech wealthy? It can never endangered, because no one knows what it is. It’s just a slogan that changes with the times and adapts to whatever the state becomes.
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 1:54 PM
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I'm not a California resident but I have been to California several times this year both northern and southern california, including for a nearly month long work stint and based upon what I have seen I would say it depends...the LA basin seems to me to be more insulated from the pressures I've seen that are pushing people out. I've seen and heard a lot more of the "california dream is dying" stuff around the bay area and the fire-prone hinterlands (sonoma, ventura, etc). I'm not that familiar with what's going on in the San Diego area. This is the year that my thoughts of moving to California died, though, I would say. Probably happened about the time my work crew was forced to fight a wildfire (before Calfire could get there) started by a homeless guy (who was badly burned) to keep it from consuming the work site. It wasn't the only fire I had to deal with...and just remember mumbling "for real?" over the sound of sirens and shouting.

That being said I will continue to work in and visit California and still would *maybe* consider living full time in the LA basin, but I feel like that door is closing as the salary adjustment would no longer match the housing prices in socal (which were still workable just a few years ago). My bay area friends have already left California and some good LA friends are moving to Oregon. That's not to say that if I currently lived in California I would leave...just that the pull factor is dying.
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  #14  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 1:57 PM
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What is the California dream? To become a famous? Have a home and backyard? Decent middle-class standard of living? Be tech wealthy? It can never endangered, because no one knows what it is. It’s just a slogan that changes with the times and adapts to whatever the state becomes.
True, I think in this context the classic "old school" middle/upper middle class California dream, at least for me.
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Last edited by Centropolis; Nov 4, 2019 at 2:26 PM.
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 2:15 PM
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I think it is for all but the most privileged.
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 2:50 PM
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I don't think it's dying for all the transplants that keep moving there with the means and education to find jobs that can afford to pay for their rent. I think it's dying for people that wing it and move there to work service jobs who then realize it's a struggle and have to work multiple jobs to afford a room in east oakland.

It's dying for the working class, at least in the Bay I think. Working in Silicon Valley, I spoke with alot of shuttle and van drivers who ferry tech workers around silicon valley. Most of them were either southbay natives or asian/latino immigrants who immigrated in the 80's and some of them bought homes in the 80's. The ones with houses are just waiting to cash out and head to Arizona/Texas and alot of the drivers with no property in the south bay had already moved out to tracy or beyond the san ramon valley since they couldnt afford to rent anymore in the southbay.I even had a friend who moved from Redwood City (where he was born) to Chicago because he said there he could be comfortable working a service job.
     
     
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 2:59 PM
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there's an entire wedge of the middle/upper middle class feeling a push factor out of the bay area, i experienced the complaints for a month (also from the working class). people who have young children and/or are struggling with extreme commutes, housing issues, and overwork from lack of people in their positions to run projects, etc. my boss was working over 80 hour weeks because they couldn't hire mid/higher level mgmt employees to do his job. they are flying people in like me because it's cheaper than paying professionals enough to be able to buy housing in the bay area...the situation in the bay area has moved way way beyond being expensive for service employees and is a huge issue with college educated professionals.
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 3:10 PM
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No.

Everyone I've met who've lived here for decades say the 90s were way worse, for LA anyway. Except for the homless situation, which doesn't really effect people's day to day lives.

In the 90s, race relations were awful, tons of gangs, crime and murder rates were far worse, 94 Northridge quake, Rodney King riots, Mudslides, economy was in shambles etc.

And it bounce back in the mid 2000s, until the recession. And now it's bounced back stronger.

LA's CSA was the leader in jobs added, and SF is in the top 3 or 5. San Diego is doing very well too.

The wildfires suck, but they don't hurt most people's lives. They mostly burn up dead brush, not communities.
Hurricances and floods destroy more houses, cause more deaths etc.
     
     
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Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 3:25 PM
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Leave Cali and come to Texas, we have hurricanes, tornadoes and dangerous heat.

Not the worst thread ever made but not great either.
     
     
  #20  
Old Posted Nov 4, 2019, 3:28 PM
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The wildfires suck, but they don't hurt most people's lives. They mostly burn up dead brush, not communities.
Hurricances and floods destroy more houses, cause more deaths etc.
with all do respect this is a bit tone-deaf.
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