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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 12:55 AM
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US Metro Areas(MSA) by 5-year job growth

From bls.gov

Metro Areas(MSA) with a Population of 1 Million+ by Non-Farm Job Growth from September 2014 through September 2019
+716,800 New York +7.78%
+527,600 Los Angeles +9.25%
+508,700 Dallas +15.38%
+331,400 San Francisco +15.20%
+331,300 Atlanta +13.14%
+318,300 Phoenix +17.15%
+299,700 Miami +12.33%
+275,100 Chicago +6.05%
+273,900 Seattle +14.79%
+244,400 Riverside +18.89%

+230,000 Orlando +20.65%
+227,400 Washington DC +7.30%
+214,300 Houston +7.24%
+199,500 Boston +7.63%
+193,800 Philadelphia +6.95%
+169,600 Tampa +13.99%
+169,100 Denver +12.40%
+168,100 San Diego +12.48%
+167,200 Charlotte +15.59%
+165,100 Austin +17.79%

+147,200 Las Vegas +16.48%
+145,100 San Jose +14.30%
+140,100 Portland +12.92%
+133,900 Nashville +15.01%
+133,500 Detroit +7.01%
+127,300 Sacramento +14.27%
+126,800 San Antonio +13.20%
+109,900 Minneapolis +5.76%
+98,800 Salt Lake City +15.02%
+98,400 Jacksonville +15.75%

+94,500 Columbus +9.21%
+92,500 Kansas City +9.00%
+90,700 Cincinnati +8.61%
+86,500 Raleigh +15.31%
+88,200 St Louis +6.63%
+87,500 Indianapolis +8.72%
+83,200 Baltimore +6.15%
+50,700 Fresno +16.02%
+49,200 Grand Rapids +9.50%
+45,100 Cleveland +4.33%

+42,900 Richmond +7.75%
+41,000 Memphis +6.63%
+34,300 Oklahoma City +5.47%
+33,700 Virginia Beach +4.42%
+30,000 Birmingham +5.78%
+29,500 Milwaukee +3.46%
+28,400 Providence +4.93%
+27,000 Pittsburgh +2.31%
+25,600 Tucson +6.99%
+22,500 New Orleans +3.98%

+21,300 Rochester +4.06%
+17,100 Buffalo +3.08%
+14,900 Tulsa +3.37%

Here's the Top 15 MSAs back to the beginning of this decade.

Sep 2010-Sep 2019 MSA Job Growth:
+1,342,700 New York +15.65%
+956,000 Los Angeles +18.13%
+881,100 Dallas +30.02%
+597,900 Houston +23.22%
+581,900 San Francisco +30.15%
+578,400 Atlanta +25.44%
+551,600 Chicago +13.22%
+548,000 Miami +25.12%
+492,100 Phoenix +29.26%
+449,200 Seattle +26.80%
+397,800 Riverside +34.89%
+376,900 Boston +15.48%
+354,200 Washington DC +11.86%
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  #2  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 1:06 AM
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No huge surprises, I don't think.

Pittsburgh is the worst performer, when it's the consensus Rust Belt comeback metro. Detroit has the best Rust Belt performance, when it's the consensus most troubled major metro.

Dallas has amazing growth for a metro of its size, and considering it isn't a tech hub.
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  #3  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 1:24 AM
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Atlanta's economy has definitely come roaring back.

Raleigh does very well by itself without Durham.

I don't see Louisville on this list.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 1:50 AM
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Thanks for the list.

Chicago is kind of surprising. The metro is barely growing, yet it has decent job growth.
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  #5  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 2:30 AM
Ant131531 Ant131531 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
No huge surprises, I don't think.

Pittsburgh is the worst performer, when it's the consensus Rust Belt comeback metro. Detroit has the best Rust Belt performance, when it's the consensus most troubled major metro.

Dallas has amazing growth for a metro of its size, and considering it isn't a tech hub.
Dallas is like a modern day early 1900s Chicago. Diverse economy, in a region of rapid growth(Texas), central location. It's Tech growth in absolute numbers is probably up there with the Seattles and Austins of the nation.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post

Dallas has amazing growth for a metro of its size, and considering it isn't a tech hub.
Dallas is the 4th largest MSA, has a booming population, relatively cheap housing costs, is very 'business friendly', throws out all sorts of subsidies, part of a state that actively courts out-of-state companies to relocate there.

I am more amazed at the uber expensive, super high tax, red-tape laden, NIMBY infested SF metro actually growing on par with Dallas. LOL
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:26 AM
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So the LA csa added as much as ny.
Not bad.
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  #8  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
No huge surprises, I don't think.

Pittsburgh is the worst performer, when it's the consensus Rust Belt comeback metro. Detroit has the best Rust Belt performance, when it's the consensus most troubled major metro.

Dallas has amazing growth for a metro of its size, and considering it isn't a tech hub.
Pittsburgh is boosted more on these boards than real life. My ex-wife is from Pittsburgh and when she would visit St. Louis with me she always said that "St. Louis reminds me of Pittsburgh, but better". This is St. Louis we are talking about, the murder capital of America and a highly troubled city. I think much of Pittsburgh's praise comes from it being the whitest major Rust Belt city and having a relatively low crime rate. I like Pittsburgh a lot and it has done a lot in real life to clean up it's image, but many would be surprised at how much of the Pittsburgh metro is in really bad condition.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:54 AM
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Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
So the LA csa added as much as ny.
Not bad.
Pretty much.

[u]CSA Job Growth, Sep 2010-Sep 2019
+1,387,800 LOS ANGELES +20.75%
+1,051,500 SAN FRANCISCO +28.81%
+   887,800 DALLAS +29.82%
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Chicago is kind of surprising. The metro is barely growing, yet it has decent job growth.
This surprised me as well.

Although the metro area is so large that even a small percentage growth probably results in a large absolute growth.
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Last edited by SFBruin; Oct 25, 2019 at 12:28 PM.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SFBruin View Post
This surprised me as well.

Although the metro area is so large that even a small percentage growth probably results in a good absolute growth.
True. That's why I was probably not blown away or anything, but I think its still interesting nevertheless.

It's job growth is a lot higher than its population growth.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
It's job growth is a lot higher than its population growth.
Got it. That DOES surprise me.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 1:43 PM
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Job growth also reflects the decline in unemployment over this period. so it may not be tied just to population growth which is a different contributor.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 2:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goat314 View Post
Pittsburgh is boosted more on these boards than real life. My ex-wife is from Pittsburgh and when she would visit St. Louis with me she always said that "St. Louis reminds me of Pittsburgh, but better". This is St. Louis we are talking about, the murder capital of America and a highly troubled city. I think much of Pittsburgh's praise comes from it being the whitest major Rust Belt city and having a relatively low crime rate. I like Pittsburgh a lot and it has done a lot in real life to clean up it's image, but many would be surprised at how much of the Pittsburgh metro is in really bad condition.
It's definitely boosted on here, but anyone who visits Pittsburgh generally comes away pretty impressed (even 20+ years ago when there wasn't nearly as much going on in the city).

I'm not sure what "being the whitest major Rust Belt city" would have to do with it, and I'd rather not go there.

I think when people visit and they experience the dramatic topography (which offers constantly changing views of the city), impressive infrastructure and architecture, and numerous unique and historic neighborhoods set in the hills and on the rivers, they come away with a really positive experience. It's a very unique city in the US. It doesn't really look like anywhere else, and the experience on the ground isn't much like anywhere else because of the fact that it's a major city built where no major city should be built.

But there's no doubt that there exists A LOT of grit. Pittsburgh makes no excuses for that, and totally owns it. Basically saying, "Well, if you produced most of the nation's metal for a century and won two world wars and literally built the country, you'd look like this too". There are plenty of city neighborhoods and outlying steel towns in bad shape, though overall it's gotten A LOT better (at least in the city proper and close-in urban neighborhoods).
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:24 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
From bls.gov

Sep 2010-Sep 2019 MSA Job Growth:

+881,100 Dallas +30.02%

+581,900 San Francisco +30.15%

+492,100 Phoenix +29.26%
Increases in employment by nearly 1/3 over 10 years for large cities is impressive. Especially Dallas, 900,000 !

Also everyone note how weighted the growth is to the 14'-19' period vs the first half of the decade. The depression *caugh* I mean "recession" really was a doozy
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Tuckerman View Post
Job growth also reflects the decline in unemployment over this period. so it may not be tied just to population growth which is a different contributor.
Right. A lot of the job growth is a reflection of "how bad were the job losses in the previous five years".

For example, DC has minimal growth, and Phoenix and IE had crazy growth. But that's largely a reflection of the fact that DC never really went into recession, and Phoenix and IE had horrible downturns. Both have economies tied to housing construction, which cratered during the recession.

The (relatively) good Detroit numbers are a reflection of the previous regional depression, so any return to normalcy will show healthy growth. If Detroit never cratered, its numbers would be worse, probably in line with Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

The numbers for Seattle are particularly impressive (though not surprising) because Seattle didn't previously crater. Obviously tech-oriented metros are largely responsible for this latest expansion. Though when there's a downturn, I bet Seattle will temporarily have worse-than-average growth, simply because it's going all-cylinders now, so normalcy will look bad.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 3:49 PM
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
It's definitely boosted on here, but anyone who visits Pittsburgh generally comes away pretty impressed (even 20+ years ago when there wasn't nearly as much going on in the city).

I'm not sure what "being the whitest major Rust Belt city" would have to do with it, and I'd rather not go there.

I think when people visit and they experience the dramatic topography (which offers constantly changing views of the city), impressive infrastructure and architecture, and numerous unique and historic neighborhoods set in the hills and on the rivers, they come away with a really positive experience. It's a very unique city in the US. It doesn't really look like anywhere else, and the experience on the ground isn't much like anywhere else because of the fact that it's a major city built where no major city should be built.
Agree 100%. It’s a beautiful city and landscape.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 4:17 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Right. A lot of the job growth is a reflection of "how bad were the job losses in the previous five years".

For example, DC has minimal growth, and Phoenix and IE had crazy growth. But that's largely a reflection of the fact that DC never really went into recession, and Phoenix and IE had horrible downturns. Both have economies tied to housing construction, which cratered during the recession.

The (relatively) good Detroit numbers are a reflection of the previous regional depression, so any return to normalcy will show healthy growth. If Detroit never cratered, its numbers would be worse, probably in line with Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

The numbers for Seattle are particularly impressive (though not surprising) because Seattle didn't previously crater. Obviously tech-oriented metros are largely responsible for this latest expansion. Though when there's a downturn, I bet Seattle will temporarily have worse-than-average growth, simply because it's going all-cylinders now, so normalcy will look bad.
Employment recovery for most of the country including the IE and Phoenix hit pre recession levels years before our current boom

the 5 year growth numbers are not reflective of recovery but of new growth for the most part.

DC is stable because it is tied to a generally reality proof industry AKA the USA federal government.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 4:47 PM
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Employment recovery for most of the country including the IE and Phoenix hit pre recession levels years before our current boom

the 5 year growth numbers are not reflective of recovery but of new growth for the most part.

DC is stable because it is tied to a generally reality proof industry AKA the USA federal government.
Well, this is more complicated. Each metro area has a slighty different story with regard to unemployment and job growth over time. Looking at time trends with multiple variables is alway complex and single explanations rarely apply. E.g. in the Atlanta metro the unemployment rate has gone down steadily from 10.5% in 2009 to 2.9% at present. Its high overall job growth is probably partly accounted for by this factor. But other factors such as strong general and even-based population growth from migration foreign and domestic, as well as business relocations to the area have contributed to the picture.

As a sun-belt city it shares many of the characteristics of the current growth patterns in Texas. There are many indications that these particular patterns are still quite active and may be so for some time to come. Nonetheless. historically we have seen patterns of city growth that reflect several key demographic factors in the US and other industrial countries. That history almost always shows that at some point in time the extraordinary growth pattern slows and/or stops and the cities affected reach a stage of population stability. The "raw" and the "cooked" if you will.
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  #20  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 5:13 PM
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Houston is definitely slowing down. Even without seeing the stats, you can just see it around town and if you're in market for new job. When I was looking a couple of years ago, got far more bites in Bay Area at least in my line of work.
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