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  #21  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2019, 5:16 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Tuckerman View Post
Well, this is more complicated. Each metro area has a slighty different story with regard to unemployment and job growth over time. Looking at time trends with multiple variables is alway complex and single explanations rarely apply. E.g. in the Atlanta metro the unemployment rate has gone down steadily from 10.5% in 2009 to 2.9% at present. Its high overall job growth is probably partly accounted for by this factor. But other factors such as strong general and even-based population growth from migration foreign and domestic, as well as business relocations to the area have contributed to the picture.

As a sun-belt city it shares many of the characteristics of the current growth patterns in Texas. There are many indications that these particular patterns are still quite active and may be so for some time to come. Nonetheless. historically we have seen patterns of city growth that reflect several key demographic factors in the US and other industrial countries. That history almost always shows that at some point in time the extraordinary growth pattern slows and/or stops and the cities affected reach a stage of population stability. The "raw" and the "cooked" if you will.
I think the Major Sun belt cities have several more decades to go before reaching a stable point like NYC

Figuring out where each city is going to max is really more or less impossible to say unless you are an expert on a wide range of subjects and a very good guesser to boot. And of course the calculus behind why people are moving to places and not change all the time because of technology, economics and culture.

Assuming nothing extreme changes, and of course the ebb and flow of recessions and growth periods I think you'll see what I consider Phase 1 sunbelt growth mature and level off in Florida, Houston/Dallas , California in the next couple of decades. Certainly by 2050.

Phase 2 sunbelt, your Arizona's, Nevada's, Austin, Denver North Carolina, Tennessee etc, will level off a decade or two later.

At that point I expect rapid growth rent-seeking to be pushed into the inter- mountain west. Idaho, Montana, Utah, Dakota's, Nebraska, maybe even Anchorage

This will be the last part of the country to develop for a number of reasons mostly its the farthest from the ocean and other transportation hubs and is a difficult place to live without modern technology and capitol That will take us well into next century.

Obviously other cities might suddenly explode or regions might find themselves the hub of some new yet unknown industry that may change that flow but I think generally that is what we will see happen.

Now where will the USA level off population wise? Overall I think somewhere around 500-600 million.

But once again that is assuming we dont have some major cultural change that once again promotes high levels of childbirth. Or maybe some new revolutionary technologies or public programs will change the affordability of raising a kid immensely thus leading to a baby boom.

Who knows.
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  #22  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 12:10 AM
Tuckerman Tuckerman is offline
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
I think the Major Sun belt cities have several more decades to go before reaching a stable point like NYC

Figuring out where each city is going to max is really more or less impossible to say unless you are an expert on a wide range of subjects and a very good guesser to boot. And of course the calculus behind why people are moving to places and not change all the time because of technology, economics and culture.

Assuming nothing extreme changes, and of course the ebb and flow of recessions and growth periods I think you'll see what I consider Phase 1 sunbelt growth mature and level off in Florida, Houston/Dallas , California in the next couple of decades. Certainly by 2050.

Phase 2 sunbelt, your Arizona's, Nevada's, Austin, Denver North Carolina, Tennessee etc, will level off a decade or two later.

At that point I expect rapid growth rent-seeking to be pushed into the inter- mountain west. Idaho, Montana, Utah, Dakota's, Nebraska, maybe even Anchorage

This will be the last part of the country to develop for a number of reasons mostly its the farthest from the ocean and other transportation hubs and is a difficult place to live without modern technology and capitol That will take us well into next century.

Obviously other cities might suddenly explode or regions might find themselves the hub of some new yet unknown industry that may change that flow but I think generally that is what we will see happen.

Now where will the USA level off population wise? Overall I think somewhere around 500-600 million.

But once again that is assuming we dont have some major cultural change that once again promotes high levels of childbirth. Or maybe some new revolutionary technologies or public programs will change the affordability of raising a kid immensely thus leading to a baby boom.

Who knows.

Good points and we will see what happens. I personally think that climate change and rising sea levels will play a critical role in the future growth of American cities. In which case, those that are far inland or at altitutde, eg. Dallas, Atlanta will have an advantage.
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  #23  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 12:29 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Good points and we will see what happens. I personally think that climate change and rising sea levels will play a critical role in the future growth of American cities. In which case, those that are far inland or at altitutde, eg. Dallas, Atlanta will have an advantage.
The worst actual predictions are more than manageable with sea walls and air conditioning.

Nobody reputable has ever predicted that climate change will make coasts uninhabitable or end every coastal city. When you see those stories its usually nonsense or extreme editorial exaggeration to grab clicks.
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  #24  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 12:47 AM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Houston is definitely slowing down. Even without seeing the stats, you can just see it around town and if you're in market for new job. When I was looking a couple of years ago, got far more bites in Bay Area at least in my line of work.
Houston is still about 30-40% dependent on oil. That's why the first 5 years growth is much higher than the last 5 years (prices peaked around 2014 and have been down 50%). Faster growing cities have a high tech component - even NY.

Changing the subject a little to another city, why has Pittsburgh been such a laggard?
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  #25  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 3:17 AM
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Houston is still about 30-40% dependent on oil. That's why the first 5 years growth is much higher than the last 5 years (prices peaked around 2014 and have been down 50%). Faster growing cities have a high tech component - even NY.

Changing the subject a little to another city, why has Pittsburgh been such a laggard?
About 30% down from about 50-60-% over the past 20-30 or so years which is why we weathered recent downturn in energy sector much better than the mid 80's. Still, it accounts for much of the wealth and high paying jobs so either way, it has a massive trickle down effect across the region. Our tech sector is pitifully small considering we are a leading medical/ research hub. They are working on that but Austin and Dallas are so far ahead of us at this point.

I think Pittsburgh is still transitioning from a largely blue collar town to a high tech/ knowledge economy. Which weeds out a lot of people in the work force. If you have a degree, you're probably good to go but no degree, you're probably exploring your options somewhere else. Like Texas..
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  #26  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 1:07 PM
Tuckerman Tuckerman is offline
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
The worst actual predictions are more than manageable with sea walls and air conditioning.

Nobody reputable has ever predicted that climate change will make coasts uninhabitable or end every coastal city. When you see those stories its usually nonsense or extreme editorial exaggeration to grab clicks.
Please believe whatever versions you want on climate change. There are many, from dire to no problem. I would not argue that the coasts would be uninhabitable. However, many coastal cities will be impacted at some point. Solutions such as sea walls are complex, costly and take careful planning - all areas that federal, state, and local governments will have to contend with. Good luck with that.
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  #27  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2019, 3:32 PM
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Originally Posted by KB0679 View Post
I don't see Louisville on this list.
Not completely confident on my 2014 number because of the source I had to use, but I have Louisville at +55,000 and 8.8% which feels right for the area.
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  #28  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2019, 2:18 PM
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Montréal is having a pretty good run lately.

https://www.montrealinternational.co...-job-creation/
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  #29  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 3:16 AM
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50 States and DC, Job Growth Sep 2010-Sep 2019: California +3,263,000 +22.85%
Texas +2,464,300 +23.70%
Florida +1,883,200 +26.26%
New York +1,259,400 +14.74%
Georgia +771,800 +19.97%
North Carolina +709,300 +18.38%
Washington +674,600 +23.81%
Colorado +569,500 +25.65%
Arizona +569,100 +23.98%
Illinois +568,900 +10.12%
Michigan +568,700 +14.67%
Ohio +549,400 +10.89%
Tennessee +503,300 +19.20%
Massachussetts +461,700 +14.33%
Pennsylvania +412,400 +7.32%
Utah +389,200 +32.87%
Virginia +372,700 +10.20%
New Jersey+372,000 +9.72%
Indiana +370,900 +13.25%
South Carolina +364,800 +20.10%
Oregon +342,300 +21.37%
Minnesota +329,100 +12.49%
Nevada +327,800 +29.46%
Missouri +255,300 +9.57%
Wisconsin +255,300 +9.36%
Maryland +240,800 +9.57%
Alabama +203,500 +10.78%
Kentucky +196,400 +11.13%
Idaho +160,500 +26.65%
Oklahoma +141,800 +9.12%
Iowa +130,200 +8.88%
Arkansas +115,200 +9.89%
Kansas +110,200 +8.29%
Louisiana +104,100 +5.51%
District of Columbia +86,600 +12.12%
Nebraska +85,900 +9.07%
Connecticut +82,300 +5.08%
Mississippi +77,400 +7.08%
Hawaii +77,100 +13.15%
New Hampshire +66,500 +10.67%
New Mexico +65,100 +8.16%
North Dakota +58,100 +15.38%
Montana +55,000 +12.85%
Delaware +51,900 +12.44%
Rhode Island +45,100 +9.83%
South Dakota +43,800 +10.83%
Maine +39,000 +6.57%
Vermont +19,300 +6.46%
West Virginia +16,100 +2.24%
Alaska +4,200 +1.28%
Wyoming +2,600 +0.90%
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  #30  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 5:04 AM
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xzmattzx xzmattzx is offline
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Originally Posted by goat314 View Post
Pittsburgh is boosted more on these boards than real life. My ex-wife is from Pittsburgh and when she would visit St. Louis with me she always said that "St. Louis reminds me of Pittsburgh, but better". This is St. Louis we are talking about, the murder capital of America and a highly troubled city. I think much of Pittsburgh's praise comes from it being the whitest major Rust Belt city and having a relatively low crime rate. I like Pittsburgh a lot and it has done a lot in real life to clean up it's image, but many would be surprised at how much of the Pittsburgh metro is in really bad condition.
Maybe the key is the Pittsburgh metro. Pittsburgh itself is doing fine, and maybe immediate municipalities are too, but the Monongahela Valley is bombed out and decaying. Even places that aren't decaying and are pretty pleasant, like Butler, still seem like they are stuck-in-time backwaters. That's where there's no growth, or even shrinkage.
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  #31  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:12 PM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
50 States and DC, Job Growth Sep 2010-Sep 2019: California +3,263,000 +22.85%
Texas +2,464,300 +23.70%
Florida +1,883,200 +26.26%
New York +1,259,400 +14.74%
Georgia +771,800 +19.97%
North Carolina +709,300 +18.38%
Washington +674,600 +23.81%
Colorado +569,500 +25.65%
Arizona +569,100 +23.98%
Illinois +568,900 +10.12%
Michigan +568,700 +14.67%
Ohio +549,400 +10.89%
Tennessee +503,300 +19.20%
Massachussetts +461,700 +14.33%
Pennsylvania +412,400 +7.32%
Utah +389,200 +32.87%
Virginia +372,700 +10.20%
New Jersey+372,000 +9.72%
Indiana +370,900 +13.25%
South Carolina +364,800 +20.10%
Oregon +342,300 +21.37%
Minnesota +329,100 +12.49%
Nevada +327,800 +29.46%
Missouri +255,300 +9.57%
Wisconsin +255,300 +9.36%
Maryland +240,800 +9.57%
Alabama +203,500 +10.78%
Kentucky +196,400 +11.13%
Idaho +160,500 +26.65%
Oklahoma +141,800 +9.12%
Iowa +130,200 +8.88%
Arkansas +115,200 +9.89%
Kansas +110,200 +8.29%
Louisiana +104,100 +5.51%
District of Columbia +86,600 +12.12%
Nebraska +85,900 +9.07%
Connecticut +82,300 +5.08%
Mississippi +77,400 +7.08%
Hawaii +77,100 +13.15%
New Hampshire +66,500 +10.67%
New Mexico +65,100 +8.16%
North Dakota +58,100 +15.38%
Montana +55,000 +12.85%
Delaware +51,900 +12.44%
Rhode Island +45,100 +9.83%
South Dakota +43,800 +10.83%
Maine +39,000 +6.57%
Vermont +19,300 +6.46%
West Virginia +16,100 +2.24%
Alaska +4,200 +1.28%
Wyoming +2,600 +0.90%
But I was told California was dying and the economy was in the crapper.
New York too.

Huh.
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  #32  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:33 PM
prokowave prokowave is offline
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Originally Posted by xzmattzx View Post
Maybe the key is the Pittsburgh metro. Pittsburgh itself is doing fine, and maybe immediate municipalities are too, but the Monongahela Valley is bombed out and decaying. Even places that aren't decaying and are pretty pleasant, like Butler, still seem like they are stuck-in-time backwaters. That's where there's no growth, or even shrinkage.
People are forgetting that PIT has also grown into an oil and gas town with the shale boom, so the collapse of oil prices probably had an outsized effect compared to similar cities. Cities like Tulsa, OKC, and New Orleans also lagged during that time frame.
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  #33  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:40 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
50 States and DC, Job Growth Sep 2010-Sep 2019: California +3,263,000 +22.85%
Texas +2,464,300 +23.70%
Florida +1,883,200 +26.26%
New York +1,259,400 +14.74%
Georgia +771,800 +19.97%
North Carolina +709,300 +18.38%
Washington +674,600 +23.81%
Colorado +569,500 +25.65%
Arizona +569,100 +23.98%
Illinois +568,900 +10.12%
Michigan +568,700 +14.67%
Ohio +549,400 +10.89%
Tennessee +503,300 +19.20%
Massachussetts +461,700 +14.33%
Pennsylvania +412,400 +7.32%
Utah +389,200 +32.87%
Virginia +372,700 +10.20%
New Jersey+372,000 +9.72%
Indiana +370,900 +13.25%
South Carolina +364,800 +20.10%
Oregon +342,300 +21.37%
Minnesota +329,100 +12.49%
Nevada +327,800 +29.46%
Missouri +255,300 +9.57%
Wisconsin +255,300 +9.36%
Maryland +240,800 +9.57%
Alabama +203,500 +10.78%
Kentucky +196,400 +11.13%
Idaho +160,500 +26.65%
Oklahoma +141,800 +9.12%
Iowa +130,200 +8.88%
Arkansas +115,200 +9.89%
Kansas +110,200 +8.29%
Louisiana +104,100 +5.51%
District of Columbia +86,600 +12.12%
Nebraska +85,900 +9.07%
Connecticut +82,300 +5.08%
Mississippi +77,400 +7.08%
Hawaii +77,100 +13.15%
New Hampshire +66,500 +10.67%
New Mexico +65,100 +8.16%
North Dakota +58,100 +15.38%
Montana +55,000 +12.85%
Delaware +51,900 +12.44%
Rhode Island +45,100 +9.83%
South Dakota +43,800 +10.83%
Maine +39,000 +6.57%
Vermont +19,300 +6.46%
West Virginia +16,100 +2.24%
Alaska +4,200 +1.28%
Wyoming +2,600 +0.90%
These not being in alphabetical is triggering me, I guess they are in population order.
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  #34  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:41 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
But I was told California was dying and the economy was in the crapper.
New York too.

Huh.
Your single point of data analysis is truly revolutionary.
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  #35  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:48 PM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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I wonder what the response would be if California added only 5-10%.
But facts are facts.

For all the talk about Texas's business friendly jibber jabber, it didn't even gain 1 more percent of job growth than California in 9 years.
I'd figured there would be some kind of landslide, according to certain "facts".

NOPE.
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  #36  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:50 PM
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But I was told California was dying and the economy was in the crapper.
Yeah LA-OC-IE and the Bay Area have really delivered jobs this decade.

2010-2019 Job Growth
+1,387,800 LOS ANGELES CSA +20.75%
+1,051,500 SAN FRANCISCO CSA +28.81%

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
These not being in alphabetical is triggering me, I guess they are in population order.
It's ranked by the number of jobs created.
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  #37  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:54 PM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
Yeah LA-OC-IE and the Bay Area have really delivered jobs this decade.

2010-2019 Job Growth
+1,387,800 LOS ANGELES CSA +20.75%
+1,051,500 SAN FRANCISCO CSA +28.81%


It's ranked by the number of jobs created.
Ugh. More facts.
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  #38  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
50 States and DC, Job Growth Sep 2010-Sep 2019: California +3,263,000 +22.85%
Texas +2,464,300 +23.70%
Florida +1,883,200 +26.26%
(...)
Dimond, could you do the same for CSAs above 1 million or so?
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  #39  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2019, 5:28 PM
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Dimond, could you do the same for CSAs above 1 million or so?
When I have time...😀
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