The US Census Bureau thread

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

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I don't think we're at "peak Phoenix" yet. For now, the local river/reservoir system (Gila/Salt) is full, and the ongoing negotiations and mitigation efforts, plus a good couple years of rain/snow with the Colorado system, seem to have at least stabilized reservoir levels and brought them back up from the lows of 2022 to the 30-year historical average. So I think population will continue to grow in the 10-year timeframe. Harder to say at 20 years though.

Assuming nothing changes "peak" phoenix before the population stabilizes and goes into slow growth mode I think is probably around 7 or 8 million with the Tucson being ~2 million. The smaller cities and towns around the state depending on their economic fortunes probably about ~2 million round the whole state out somewhere around 12 million.

The state is very forward-thinking with-it water plans so that isn't really a problem.

However as others have said things change faster than we realize so who knows. There could be another Baby Boom, or a war? or a plague? Or the widespread adoption of fusion energy?

If you told somebody in 1800 how big even "small" cities are now it would bogle their minds. Sow who knows. Maybe in 50 years the US population will be 600 million and Phoenix will have a population of 10 million?!? Maybe places that right now are meaningless backwaters like Yuma or Sacaton blow up and shoot to the top of the list due to some unforeseen recourse discovery?

Making hard predictions too far in advance are guaranteed to fail because life changes very quickly despite our biases and flawed memories.

Fun exercise, pick any date and go backward or forward 20 or 25 years and imagine explaining the world and all that had happened (or would happen) in those coming decades to somebody. You can do this for any date.

They would think you were completely insane.

[ssiguy]

Every Canadian city would kill to have growth rates as slow as the US ones. I don't think there is a city over 200,000 in Canada that is growing by LESS than 2% a year. Canada grew by 3.2% last year and Greater Toronto grew by 250,000. Calgary and Edmonton are both growing at a numbing 5% a year. Montreal is growing at over 100k a year and Vancouver 70k. This is why Canada has such a housing crisis and tens of thousands living on the streets every night.

[dave8721]

Looks like the Census still has issues with counting immigrant communities:

https://wsvn.com/news/local/florida/...e-2020-census/

Almost 10% of Florida’s youngest children were missed during the 2020 census


Children age 4 and under in Florida were undercounted by almost 10% during the 2020 census, according to estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The bureau said the estimated error was the largest undercount of young children by any U.S. state.

More than 112,000 children age 4 or younger were overlooked in Florida during the 2020 tally which helps determine federal funding and political power every 10 years, according to Demographic Analysis estimates using administrative records to estimate the population’s size.

The Demographic Analysis is one of the tools the Census Bureau uses to calculate how good a job it did of counting every U.S. resident during a census that determines how many congressional seats each state gets.

Vermont had the smallest undercount of young children during the 2020 census, with a negligible rate of 0.02%, the equivalent of six children.