Population density patterns in cities (NYC and Chicago as a starter)

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by memph

Comparison of Chicago and Toronto in 1950 vs 2010.

What are you comparing, though? Toronto in 1950 was a small fraction of Toronto of 2010.

Toronto is probably much less dense in 2010 than in 1950, but that's because of massively expanded city limits.

[memph]

Originally Posted by Crawford

What are you comparing, though? Toronto in 1950 was a small fraction of Toronto of 2010.

Toronto is probably much less dense in 2010 than in 1950, but that's because of massively expanded city limits.

I'm comparing the urban areas.

Most of the 1950-2010 growth has indeed been at a lower density than the densities that were typical in 1950. However, in some other cities, the new growth was even less dense, and the population at high densities decreased. Toronto actually saw an increase for very high (50k ppsm+) densities, although these still make up a small part of the urban area.


Compared to other urban areas I've looked at so far.

[memph]

Neat comparison of weighted density in European vs Australian cities. Their numbers match up to the ones I got for the few European cities I attempted to calculate the weighted densities of.
http://chartingtransport.com/2015/11...ties/#comments

The densest European cities (pop 1m+) are Barcelona followed by Madrid, Valencia, Athens and Paris.

New York City (MSA/urban area) would still rank near the top, probably somewhere a bit after Paris. It's still well behind Barcelona though which has a comparable weighted density for the whole metro area (including the inland valley suburbs) to that of NYC proper.

The next densest American/Canadian cities would be about comparable to the least dense European cities, mostly smaller cities in northern Europe (UK, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Germany).

Australian cities are not especially dense, denser than the Southeast and many Midwestern and Great Lakes cities but no denser than Northeastern, Western/SW and South Florida. I'm pretty sure they're less "spiky" than NE cities too, but still have decently vibrant downtowns and transit use.

[john21wall]

Originally Posted by memph

Another way to look at the density of various cities is the weighted or perceived density. Basically, it describes the average density a person lives at. Most people have done it by census tracts, so it would be the density of the average census tract. So if you have a census tract with a population of 5000 on 0.25 sq miles (20,000 ppsm) and another census tract with a population of 5000 on 2 squares miles (2,500 ppsm), the weighted density would be the average of 2,500 ppsm and 20,000 ppsm, or 11,250 ppsm as opposed to a gross density of 10000/2.25=4444 ppsm. You basically multiply the density of each census tract by the %of the total population.

Nei at city data found the weighted densities of different parts of NYC:


From: http://www.city-data.com/forum/urban...-wealth-8.html

Those numbers suggest that Manhattan N of 59th street would have a weighted density of 124,124ppsm and population of 979,248.

One thing that's interesting is that the Bronx's weighted density is higher than Brooklyn's even though the Bronx's gross density is lower. This means most of the Bronx's residents live on a small part of the land while Brooklyn is more evenly spread out.

The number of metropolitan New York I knocked, forcing some to think, and I wonder how it looks in porónaniu to other agglomerations in the world

[memph]

2016 Canadian Census update - starting to go through these, although it will probably take a while to do every city.

Calgary Urban Area (using US Census Bureau Criteria)

2016
Population: 1,244,345
Weighted Density: 7,572 ppsm

That's up from 2011
Population: 1,101,023
Weighted Density: 7,228 ppsm

A relatively significant increase in weighted density, in terms of per year % increase in weighted density, only Portland got denser faster from 2000 to 2010, and that's starting at a lower base since Portland is barely half as dense so the net increase per year is still significantly less.

[memph]

So since the weighted density increases were calculated in the US Census Bureau thread, I thought I'd compare that to the increases for some Canadian cities. For the Canadian cities, since it's only looking at the 2011-2016 five year period rather than the 2010-2020 US Census 10 year period, I've doubled the Canadian numbers to get a per decade rate of change. For Calgary and Kitchener-Waterloo, the numbers are for the Urban Area, although the CMA boundaries are almost identical. From now on, I'll use CMA boundaries though - as I have for Vancouver. For Vancouver, this puts its CMA weighted density at 12,599 ppsm, overtaking LA and Honolulu, and leaving it behind only the New York, Toronto, Montreal and San Francisco metropolitan areas.


Change
New York.... +2,536.1
Toronto.... +2,261.5 (CMA)
Vancouver.... +1,728.0 (CMA)
Seattle....+1,424.7
San Francisco....+1,122.9
Miami....+1093.9
Honolulu....+1,033.7
Boston....+1007.8
Washington....+908.0
Calgary....+688.0 (UA)
Portland....+686.2
Edmonton....+680.5 (CMA)
San Jose....+658.2
Denver....+614.3
Atlanta....+513.4
Salt Lake City....+507.4
Las Vegas....+504.5
Orlando....+501.1
Houston....+496.8
Philadelphia....+485.3
Sacramento....+464.2
San Diego....+461.4
Providence....+440.9
Austin....+433.8
Columbus....+419.8
Richmond....+414.7
Phoenix....+412.8
Minneapolis....+401.0
Chicago....+398.5
Montreal....+369.9 (CMA)
Dallas....+365.4
Riverside....+337.3
Raleigh....+316.7
Fresno....+302.3
Tampa Bay....+293.6
Kitchener....+277.9 (UA)
Jacksonville....+272.6
Louisville....+260.7
Nashville....+248.0
Kansas City....+235.3
Buffalo....+219.4
New Orleans....+206.8
Tulsa....+187.1
Indianapolis....+171.7
Charlotte....+114.8
Detroit....+106.5
Cincinnati....+94.6
Birmingham....+88.4
Grand Rapids....+82.4
London (ON)....+81.5 (CMA)
Oklahoma City....+78.5
Tucson....+72.2
Los Angeles....+55.5
Rochester....+39.2
Winnipeg...+0.0 (CMA)
St. Louis....-4.5
Pittsburgh....-20.8
Memphis....-32.9
San Antonio....-51.4
Hartford....-55.6
Cleveland....-131.5
Hamilton....-208.8 (CMA)
Milwaukee....-233.9
Baltimore....-291.0
Virginia Beach....-503.3

[memph]

Originally Posted by memph

So since the weighted density increases were calculated in the US Census Bureau thread, I thought I'd compare that to the increases for some Canadian cities. For the Canadian cities, since it's only looking at the 2011-2016 five year period rather than the 2010-2020 US Census 10 year period, I've doubled the Canadian numbers to get a per decade rate of change. For Calgary and Kitchener-Waterloo, the numbers are for the Urban Area, although the CMA boundaries are almost identical. From now on, I'll use CMA boundaries though - as I have for Vancouver. For Vancouver, this puts its CMA weighted density at 12,599 ppsm, overtaking LA and Honolulu, and leaving it behind only the New York, Toronto, Montreal and San Francisco metropolitan areas.


Change
New York.... +2,536.1
Toronto.... +2,261.5 (CMA)
Vancouver.... +1,728.0 (CMA)
Seattle....+1,424.7
San Francisco....+1,122.9
Miami....+1093.9
Honolulu....+1,033.7
Boston....+1007.8
Washington....+908.0
Calgary....+688.0 (UA)
Portland....+686.2
San Jose....+658.2
Denver....+614.3
Atlanta....+513.4
Salt Lake City....+507.4
Las Vegas....+504.5
Orlando....+501.1
Houston....+496.8
Philadelphia....+485.3
Sacramento....+464.2
San Diego....+461.4
Providence....+440.9
Austin....+433.8
Columbus....+419.8
Richmond....+414.7
Phoenix....+412.8
Minneapolis....+401.0
Chicago....+398.5
Dallas....+365.4
Riverside....+337.3
Raleigh....+316.7
Fresno....+302.3
Tampa Bay....+293.6
Kitchener....+277.9 (UA)
Jacksonville....+272.6
Louisville....+260.7
Nashville....+248.0
Kansas City....+235.3
Buffalo....+219.4
New Orleans....+206.8
Tulsa....+187.1
Indianapolis....+171.7
Charlotte....+114.8
Detroit....+106.5
Cincinnati....+94.6
Birmingham....+88.4
Grand Rapids....+82.4
Oklahoma City....+78.5
Tucson....+72.2
Los Angeles....+55.5
Rochester....+39.2
St. Louis....-4.5
Pittsburgh....-20.8
Memphis....-32.9
San Antonio....-51.4
Hartford....-55.6
Cleveland....-131.5
Milwaukee....-233.9
Baltimore....-291.0
Virginia Beach....-503.3

Updated Toronto, the CMA increased from 13,963 ppsm to 15,094 ppsm in the 5 years from 2011 to 2016, equivalent to a 2,262 ppsm increase over 10 years. This widens its lead over San Francisco as the second densest metro area, behind only New York.

Major components of the CMA by weighted density (2016)

Old Toronto: 35,846 ppsm
East York: 24,180 ppsm
Toronto (whole city): 22,377 ppsm
North York: 19,914 ppsm
York: 19,798 ppsm
Etobicoke: 14,267 ppsm
Mississauga: 13,182 ppsm
Scarborough: 12,946 ppsm
Brampton: 10,897 ppsm
Milton: 8,834 ppsm
Markham: 8,609 ppsm
Vaughan: 8,580 ppsm
Richmond Hill: 7,951 ppsm
Ajax: 7,489 ppsm
Oakville: 6,758 ppsm
Pickering: 5,959 ppsm
Newmarket: 5,840 ppsm
Aurora: 4,483 ppsm
Halton Hills: 4,130 ppsm
Caledon: 1,640 ppsm

[memph]

Densest census tracts in Toronto

065.02 - 213,504 ppsm (St. James Town)
063.03 - 141,535 ppsm (Church-Wellesley)
062.01 - 135,683 ppsm (Yonge-Bloor)
307.06 - 134,819 ppsm (North York Centre)
128.06 - 126,605 ppsm (Davisville Village)
307.04 - 119,089 ppsm (North York Centre)
307.03 - 118,430 ppsm (North York Centre)
102.02 - 96,632 ppsm (High Park North)
034.01 - 94,738 ppsm (College Park)
307.05 - 88,669 ppsm (North York Centre)

[GreaterMontréal]

Where is Montréal on your list ?

[memph]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Where is Montréal on your list ?

Haven't done the 2016 numbers for it yet. In 2011 it was 3rd behind NYC and Toronto in weighted density.

[memph]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Where is Montréal on your list ?

Added the Montreal CMA.

2011: 12,696 ppsm
2016: 12,881 ppsm

As a result, it has been overtaken in weighted density by the San Francisco MSA.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by memph

Densest census tracts in Toronto

065.02 - 213,504 ppsm (St. James Town)
063.03 - 141,535 ppsm (Church-Wellesley)
062.01 - 135,683 ppsm (Yonge-Bloor)
307.06 - 134,819 ppsm (North York Centre)
128.06 - 126,605 ppsm (Davisville Village)
307.04 - 119,089 ppsm (North York Centre)
307.03 - 118,430 ppsm (North York Centre)
102.02 - 96,632 ppsm (High Park North)
034.01 - 94,738 ppsm (College Park)
307.05 - 88,669 ppsm (North York Centre)

What's the population of those tracts? These are impressive numbers, but particularly if they're typically at least 2,000 to 4,000 people, which iirc is similar to a US tract range.

[memph]

Originally Posted by mhays

What's the population of those tracts? These are impressive numbers, but particularly if they're typically at least 2,000 to 4,000 people, which iirc is similar to a US tract range.

Added in the populations, so mostly upwards of 4,000 people.

065.02 - 213,504 ppsm; 11,821 pop (St. James Town)
063.03 - 141,535 ppsm; 5,104 pop (Church-Wellesley)
062.01 - 135,683 ppsm; 5,595 pop (Yonge-Bloor)
307.06 - 134,819 ppsm; 5,424 pop (North York Centre)
128.06 - 126,605 ppsm; 4,199 pop (Davisville Village)
307.04 - 119,089 ppsm; 7,035 pop (North York Centre)
307.03 - 118,430 ppsm; 5,039 pop (North York Centre)
102.02 - 96,632 ppsm; 4,313 pop (High Park North)
034.01 - 94,738 ppsm; 4,554 pop (College Park)
307.05 - 88,669 ppsm; 3,581 pop (North York Centre)

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by memph

Added the Montreal CMA.

2011: 12,696 ppsm
2016: 12,881 ppsm

As a result, it has been overtaken in weighted density by the San Francisco MSA.

Montréal added a couple cities to its CMA in 2016, which lowered its density. Saint-Jean and Saint-Lin. Saint-Jean is about 235km² and Saint-Lin about 120km². They have a much lower population density than the metropolitan area.
In fact, Montréal is probably the metropolitan area that added the most sprawl in Canada between 2006 and 2016.

The island of Montréal had a really good growth between 2016 and 2021 though, maybe that will help. The only problem I see is that the CMA will probably add a couple more satellite cities in the next censuses. Cities like Valleyfield, Joliette, Lachute, they are all low density cities. The CMA will continue to grow at a good pace, but the metropolitan population density will drop.

[memph]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Montréal added a couple cities to its CMA in 2016, which lowered its density. Saint-Jean and Saint-Lin. Saint-Jean is about 235km² and Saint-Lin about 120km². They have a much lower population density than the metropolitan area.
In fact, Montréal is probably the metropolitan area that added the most sprawl in Canada between 2006 and 2016.

The island of Montréal had a really good growth between 2016 and 2021 though, maybe that will help. The only problem I see is that the CMA will probably add a couple more satellite cities in the next censuses. Cities like Valleyfield, Joliette, Lachute, they are all low density cities. The CMA will continue to grow at a good pace, but the metropolitan population density will drop.

I actually used the 2016 CMA boundaries for the 2011 stats too, so that wouldn't have affected the numbers since Saint-Lin and Saint Jean Sur Richelieu were included for the 2011 numbers too. Montreal did have a fair bit of low density suburban and exurban growth though, and *relatively* little urban growth, much of which was also brownfield growth rather than infill in existing high density neighbourhoods.

Old Toronto's weighted density increased greatly, by almost 5,000 ppsm in just five years, while the City of Montreal's only increased by just under 500 ppsm in the same time period.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by memph

I actually used the 2016 CMA boundaries for the 2011 stats too, so that wouldn't have affected the numbers since Saint-Lin and Saint Jean Sur Richelieu were included for the 2011 numbers too. Montreal did have a fair bit of low density suburban and exurban growth though, and *relatively* little urban growth, much of which was also brownfield growth rather than infill in existing high density neighbourhoods.

Old Toronto's weighted density increased greatly, by almost 5,000 ppsm in just five years, while the City of Montreal's only increased by just under 500 ppsm in the same time period.

The city of Montréal (365km²) had a population of 1,825,208 on July 1st 2020. almost 5,000/km². Old Toronto is only 97.15km².

[memph]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

The city of Montréal (365km²) had a population of 1,825,208 on July 1st 2020. almost 5,000/km². Old Toronto is only 97.15km².

Even if you look at Toronto (amalgamated city), while the weighted density increase from Old Toronto gets diluted, it still increased a lot more than for Montreal.

City of Montreal weighted density
2011: 22,064 ppsm
2016: 22,528 ppsm
Change: +464 ppsm

City of Toronto weighted density
2011: 20,124 ppsm
2016: 22,377 ppsm
Change: +2,263 ppsm

[dc_denizen]

I thought Montreal was densifying faster than this.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by memph

Added in the populations, so mostly upwards of 4,000 people.

065.02 - 213,504 ppsm; 11,821 pop (St. James Town)
063.03 - 141,535 ppsm; 5,104 pop (Church-Wellesley)
062.01 - 135,683 ppsm; 5,595 pop (Yonge-Bloor)
307.06 - 134,819 ppsm; 5,424 pop (North York Centre)
128.06 - 126,605 ppsm; 4,199 pop (Davisville Village)
307.04 - 119,089 ppsm; 7,035 pop (North York Centre)
307.03 - 118,430 ppsm; 5,039 pop (North York Centre)
102.02 - 96,632 ppsm; 4,313 pop (High Park North)
034.01 - 94,738 ppsm; 4,554 pop (College Park)
307.05 - 88,669 ppsm; 3,581 pop (North York Centre)

Thanks. Very impressive.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

I thought Montreal was densifying faster than this.

Montréal is growing fast at the moment, it was the 6th fastest growing metropolitan area in North America and the 2nd fastest growing city in North America just before Covid.

https://www.ryerson.ca/centre-urban-...g/blogentry48/

The city of Montréal has a density of about 5,000/km² or 12,944/mi².

The metropolitan area is very small by american standard, only 1,777.71 mi². There are a multitude of satellite cities that are not part of the CMA by canadian standard but would be included if it was in the US. The metropolitan area would have about 200k to 300k more people if it was in the US, closer to 5 million than 4.5 million.