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  #241  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 10:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin1971 View Post
G. Scott Thomas and Will Anderson
Austin Business Journal


Austin is expected to hit another major population milestone in a matter of months.

The number of people living in the metro area will cross 2.1 million on March 20, according to estimates by Buffalo Business First, an affiliated publication of Austin Business Journal.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/ne...or-austin.html

So this was wrong. We haven't yet passed 2.1 million as of March 20th
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  #242  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Jdawgboy View Post
So this was wrong. We haven't yet passed 2.1 million as of March 20th
It seems correct to me. If we were at ~2,056,000 last July, we should be around 2.1 million as of now.
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  #243  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 3:12 PM
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Looking at surrounding counties,

Burnet County grew by 1062, or a healthy 2.3% (faster than Caldwell County or Travis).
Blanco County by 325, or 2.9% (even faster)
Milam by 387, only 1.6%
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  #244  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 8:16 PM
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Lampasas 5.5%

Not surprising.
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  #245  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 8:48 PM
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Originally Posted by lzppjb View Post
Lampasas 5.5%

Not surprising.
Where are you seeing that? I'm seeing it only grow by 1.2%.


I'm looking at the tables here and calculating

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...data-sets.html

is there a better list somewhere?
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  #246  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 9:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
Where are you seeing that? I'm seeing it only grow by 1.2%.


I'm looking at the tables here and calculating

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...data-sets.html

is there a better list somewhere?
My bad. I was using the link ATX posted last night. That shows the % change since 2010.
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  #247  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 12:48 AM
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I was about to be very surprised by Lampasas. I know a lot of their growth comes from Killeen/Fort Hood growth to the west, but that would have been an impressive jump! Eventually 183 will impact it, but I would assume that's pretty far off into the future.
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  #248  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by drummer View Post
I was about to be very surprised by Lampasas. I know a lot of their growth comes from Killeen/Fort Hood growth to the west, but that would have been an impressive jump! Eventually 183 will impact it, but I would assume that's pretty far off into the future.
Lampasas will see a relative explosion in the future, I think. 183, 190 and 281 converge there in town. Don't forget 190 will eventually be Interstate 14 "Forts to Ports."

You're right about Fort Hood spilling over into the eastern part of Lampasas County.
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  #249  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 1:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drummer View Post
I was about to be very surprised by Lampasas. I know a lot of their growth comes from Killeen/Fort Hood growth to the west, but that would have been an impressive jump! Eventually 183 will impact it, but I would assume that's pretty far off into the future.
I wouldn't doubt it. The Temple/Killeen area is seeing massive new residential- commercial developments, especially the southern part of Killeen.
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  #250  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 1:47 AM
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Originally Posted by JoninATX View Post
I wouldn't doubt it. The Temple/Killeen area is seeing massive new residential- commercial developments, especially the southern part of Killeen.
Yeah, I would just be surprised to see Lampasas getting a significant portion of that growth in the short-term - though in the long-term, definitely.

I see Temple/Belton/Killeen continuing to grow at a rapid pace, and perhaps Copperas Cove to a relatively lesser degree. However, I would assume that much of the growth from Temple/Belton/Killeen will likely be along I-35, 190, and 195 (south to Georgetown). I just don't see it straying too far west of I-35 and 195 in the near future. It will eventually happen, of course.

If they ever get around to building I-14 along the proposed path from a while back, that could change things.
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  #251  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 3:12 AM
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I went back and was reading the discussion between wwmiv and Novacek from 2014 about the MSA possibly adding counties in the future. I remember making posts about commuter data, but they weren't there.

Can anyone point me to that data? I'm curious what the Lampasas to Burnet commuter data is. In that discussion, wwmiv made a good point that if/when Burnet is added, it is likely to be a Core county in the MSA. He looked at Blanco, Llano and Bell counties data as it relates to Burnet, but not Lampasas.
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  #252  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 3:45 AM
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I found it: https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/

Updated through 2013.

Burnet County was at 19.2% into Travis/Williamson/Hays.

Lampasas will not be pulled away from Killeen-Temple.
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  #253  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 3:57 AM
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Originally Posted by lzppjb View Post
I went back and was reading the discussion between wwmiv and Novacek from 2014 about the MSA possibly adding counties in the future. I remember making posts about commuter data, but they weren't there.

Can anyone point me to that data? I'm curious what the Lampasas to Burnet commuter data is. In that discussion, wwmiv made a good point that if/when Burnet is added, it is likely to be a Core county in the MSA. He looked at Blanco, Llano and Bell counties data as it relates to Burnet, but not Lampasas.
I'd be interested to see that as well. It seems that Burnet County especially is primed for more growth along 29 and 71 respectively. Their own data from their comprehensive plan points to southern portions of the county growing at a more rapid rate - my assumption is along 71 and 281 (Marble Falls, Horseshoe Bay, and especially Spicewood). However, Bertram and Burnet shouldn't be discounted given their proximity to the rapid growth in Leander/Liberty Hill. I know there are plans to extend 183 Toll up to 29 as well, which will only increase growth in those areas. We're already seeing a lot in anticipation of that. Think what would happen if 71 became an expressway from the Y to 281 or something.

I have no idea about commuter patterns from Lampasas County to Burnet, Bell, or Williamson Counties, though I'd suspect there are more folks going to Bell and Williamson Counties.


Edit: I tried to find a link for the updated Burnet County Comprehensive Plan, but I could only find the one from 2007. I know I've seen a newer one than that one, but ah well. Here instead is a link to the Marble Falls Comprehensive Plan which was updated in 2016. It includes some pertinent information. There is a summary of the Burnet County Thoroughfare Plan on Pg. 120.

Last edited by drummer; Mar 24, 2017 at 4:41 AM.
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  #254  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 4:34 AM
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Bertram is for sure going to see some growth.
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  #255  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 7:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lzppjb View Post
I found it: https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/

Updated through 2013.

Burnet County was at 19.2% into Travis/Williamson/Hays.

Lampasas will not be pulled away from Killeen-Temple.
Anyone know what the commuter percentage threshold is for a locale to be added to a nearby metro?
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  #256  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 1:42 PM
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Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas View Post
Anyone know what the commuter percentage threshold is for a locale to be added to a nearby metro?
I believe it's 25%.

I occasionally look to see if there's updated commuting numbers (since the last ones are from 2013). I would have thought there'd be updates by now, since there was another ACS released in 2016.
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  #257  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 4:07 PM
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25% of the sum of total workforce commuter interchange between an outlying county and all core counties from the sum of total workforce between that same set.
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  #258  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 4:51 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
25% of the sum of total workforce commuter interchange between an outlying county and all core counties from the sum of total workforce between that same set.
I'm not good with word problems. lol

As I said, it's been a few years since I did the math, but I do remember calculating commuters from Travis into Burnet, for example. I just don't remember exactly how.

I figure things out, use it, then immediately forget it.
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  #259  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 5:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lzppjb View Post
I'm not good with word problems. lol

As I said, it's been a few years since I did the math, but I do remember calculating commuters from Travis into Burnet, for example. I just don't remember exactly how.

I figure things out, use it, then immediately forget it.
In my word vomit I also misspoke anyway, so here's a better explanation:

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

Quote:
Section 1. Population Size Requirements for Qualification of Core Based Statistical Areas

Each CBSA must have a Census Bureau delineated urbanized area of at least 50,000 population or a Census Bureau delineated urban cluster of at least 10,000 population. (Urbanized Start Printed Page 37250areas and urban clusters are collectively referred to as “urban areas.”)

Section 2. Central Counties

The central county or counties of a CBSA are those counties that:

(a) Have at least 50 percent of their population in urban areas of at least 10,000 population; or

(b) Have within their boundaries a population of at least 5,000 located in a single urban area of at least 10,000 population.

A central county is associated with the urbanized area or urban cluster that accounts for the largest portion of the county's population. The central counties associated with a particular urbanized area or urban cluster are grouped to form a single cluster of central counties for purposes of measuring commuting to and from potentially qualifying outlying counties.

Section 3. Outlying Counties


A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements:

(a) At least 25 percent of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; or

(b) At least 25 percent of the employment in the county is accounted for by workers who reside in the central county or counties of the CBSA.

A county may be included in only one CBSA. If a county qualifies as a central county of one CBSA and as outlying in another, it falls within the CBSA in which it is a central county. A county that qualifies as outlying to multiple CBSAs falls within the CBSA with which it has the strongest commuting tie, as measured by either 3(a) or 3(b) above. The counties included in a CBSA must be contiguous; if a county is not contiguous with other counties in the CBSA, it will not fall within the CBSA.

Section 4. Merging of Adjacent Core Based Statistical Areas

Two adjacent CBSAs will merge to form one CBSA if the central county or counties (as a group) of one CBSA qualify as outlying to the central county or counties (as a group) of the other CBSA using the measures and thresholds stated in 3(a) and 3(b) above.

Section 5. Identification of Principal Cities

The Principal City (or Cities) of a CBSA will include:
(a) The largest incorporated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 10,000 in the CBSA or, if no incorporated place of at least 10,000 population is present in the CBSA, the largest incorporated place or census designated place in the CBSA; and

(b) Any additional incorporated place or census designated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 250,000 or in which 100,000 or more persons work; and

(c) Any additional incorporated place or census designated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 50,000, but less than 250,000, and in which the number of workers working in the place meets or exceeds the number of workers living in the place; and

(d) Any additional incorporated place or census designated place with a 2010 Census population of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000, and at least one-third the population size of the largest place, and in which the number of workers working in the place meets or exceeds the number of workers living in the place.

Section 6. Categories and Terminology

A CBSA is categorized based on the population of the largest urban area (urbanized area or urban cluster) within the CBSA. Categories of CBSAs are: Metropolitan Statistical Areas, based on urbanized areas of 50,000 or more population, and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, based on urban clusters of at least 10,000 population but less than 50,000 population. Counties that do not fall within CBSAs will represent “Outside Core Based Statistical Areas.”

A NECTA is categorized in a manner similar to a CBSA and is referred to as a Metropolitan NECTA or a Micropolitan NECTA.

Section 7. Divisions of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England City and Town Areas


(a) A Metropolitan Statistical Area containing a single urbanized area with a population of at least 2.5 million may be subdivided to form smaller groupings of counties referred to as Metropolitan Divisions. A county qualifies as a “main county” of a Metropolitan Division if 65 percent or more of workers living in the county also work within the county and the ratio of the number of workers working in the county to the number of workers living in the county is at least .75. A county qualifies as a “secondary county” if 50 percent or more, but less than 65 percent, of workers living in the county also work within the county and the ratio of the number of workers working in the county to the number of workers living in the county is at least 75.

A main county automatically serves as the basis for a Metropolitan Division. For a secondary county to qualify as the basis for forming a Metropolitan Division, it must join with either a contiguous secondary county or a contiguous main county with which it has the highest employment interchange measure of 15 or more. After all main counties and secondary counties are identified and grouped (if appropriate), each additional county that already has qualified for inclusion in the Metropolitan Statistical Area falls within the Metropolitan Division associated with the main/secondary county or counties with which the county at issue has the highest employment interchange measure. Counties in a Metropolitan Division must be contiguous.

(b) A NECTA containing a single urbanized area with a population of at least 2.5 million may be subdivided to form smaller groupings of cities and towns referred to as NECTA Divisions. A city or town will be a “main city or town” of a NECTA Division if it has a population of 50,000 or more and its highest rate of out-commuting to any other city or town is less than 20 percent.

After all main cities and towns have been identified, each remaining city and town in the NECTA will fall within the NECTA Division associated with the city or town with which the one at issue has the highest employment interchange measure. Each NECTA Division must contain a total population of 100,000 or more. Cities and towns first assigned to areas with populations less than 100,000 will be assigned to the qualifying NECTA Division associated with the city or town with which the one at issue has the highest employment interchange measure. Cities and towns within a NECTA Division must be contiguous.

Section 8. Combining Adjacent Core Based Statistical Areas

(a) Any two adjacent CBSAs will form a Combined Statistical Area if the employment interchange measure between the two areas is at least 15.

(b) The CBSAs thus combined will also continue to be recognized as individual CBSAs within the Combined Statistical Area.

Section 9. Titles of Core Based Statistical Areas, Metropolitan Divisions, New England City and Town Divisions, and Combined Statistical Areas

(a) The title of a CBSA or NECTA will include the name of its Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population. If there are multiple Principal Cities, the names of the second-largest and (if present) third-largest Principal Cities will appear in the title in order of descending population size. If the Principal City Start Printed Page 37251with the largest 2010 Census population is a census designated place, the name of the largest incorporated place of at least 10,000 population that also is a Principal City will appear first in the title followed by the name of the census designated place. If the Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population is a census designated place, and there is no incorporated place of at least 10,000 population that also is a Principal City, the name of that census designated place Principal City will appear first in the title.

(b) The title of a Metropolitan Division will include the name of the Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population located in the Metropolitan Division. If there are multiple Principal Cities, the names of the second-largest and (if present) third-largest Principal Cities will appear in the title in order of descending population size. If there are no Principal Cities located in the Metropolitan Division, the title of the Metropolitan Division will use the names of up to three counties in order of descending 2010 Census population size.

(c) The title of a NECTA Division will include the name of the Principal City with the largest 2010 Census population located in the NECTA Division. If there are multiple Principal Cities, the names of the second-largest and (if present) third-largest Principal Cities will appear in the title in order of descending population size. If there are no Principal Cities located in the NECTA Division, the title of the NECTA Division will use the names of up to three cities or towns in descending 2010 Census population size.

(d) The title of a Combined Statistical Area will include the names of the two largest Principal Cities in the combination and the name of the third-largest Principal City, if present. If the Combined Statistical Area title duplicates that of one of its component CBSAs, the name of the third-most-populous Principal City will be dropped from the title of the Combined Statistical Area.

(e) Titles also will include the names of any State in which the area is located.
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  #260  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 11:10 PM
drummer drummer is offline
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wwmiv, I'll be honest, I preferred your first answer...
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