Fort McMurray Construction

[SkydivePilot]

WOW!!! Congrats to Fort Mac!!!

(Regina would then have some catching up to do!!!)

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by casper

What Ft. Mac now needs is to start to diversify the economy and create some balance in the community. A small university would be a good starting point. Start to create a city beyond the oil patch economy. This community now has the largest population north of the 55 parallel.

They have Keyano College up there.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

They have Keyano College up there.

Which largely teaches oil sands careers 101.

The reality is that any non-oil sands diversity in the economy is next to impossible to create in Fort McMurray with rental rates for a single 1-bedroom apartment in the neighborhood of $2400/month.

Until the housing bubble is dealt with by the municipality and the control of housing and land releases is lessened and the supply vs demand ratio is allowed to move to a level comparable to other cities Fort McMurray is going to remain a single focus economy and the retail and services in the city will continue to suffer due to lack of affordable housing limiting the available work force.

Fort McMurray has serious problems going into the future and a large part of those problems stem from the municipality and their unwillingness to allow house prices to settle to a more reasonable level by controlling the flow of new housing into the market. It keeps single family homes being used as boarding houses and makes the issue of the hidden "shadow population" prevalent to the degree that tens of thousands of actual full time residents of Fort McMurray are not recorded in the census and the estimates of the population of the city are hugely low.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by Tropics

Which largely teaches oil sands careers 101.

The reality is that any non-oil sands diversity in the economy is next to impossible to create in Fort McMurray with rental rates for a single 1-bedroom apartment in the neighborhood of $2400/month.

Until the housing bubble is dealt with by the municipality and the control of housing and land releases is lessened and the supply vs demand ratio is allowed to move to a level comparable to other cities Fort McMurray is going to remain a single focus economy and the retail and services in the city will continue to suffer due to lack of affordable housing limiting the available work force.

Fort McMurray has serious problems going into the future and a large part of those problems stem from the municipality and their unwillingness to allow house prices to settle to a more reasonable level by controlling the flow of new housing into the market. It keeps single family homes being used as boarding houses and makes the issue of the hidden "shadow population" prevalent to the degree that tens of thousands of actual full time residents of Fort McMurray are not recorded in the census and the estimates of the population of the city are hugely low.

I wonder how much of it is the municipality withholding land or the province withholding land. The province has been slow to release land for the purposes of development.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

I wonder how much of it is the municipality withholding land or the province withholding land. The province has been slow to release land for the purposes of development.

There is a slight war going in with the GoA and RMWB. the GoA needs land for some coming projects but the RMWB is unwilling to sell the land to the Gov so the Gov withholds anymore land from their alotment.

[Chadillaccc]

... and as such, it is the people who suffer. Gotta love our democratic "Government of the people"

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

... and as such, it is the people who suffer. Gotta love our democratic "Government of the people"

The stupid thing is that it costs this province and the entire country billions of dollars in lost revenue that would be generated from the oil sands if not for the staggering costs of doing business up here. The cost of living makes living locally unappealing for most people so companies spend upwards of $1000 a month flying someone in and another $4000 a month putting that single worker up in camp to do a 20/10 rotation. That single worker costs a company $60,000 more just on flight and lodging then they would if Fort McMurray were a reasonable place to live such that employers could hire people and get them to live locally.

Drilling companies are unable/unwilling to buy property to build laydown yards and shops locally so everything is transported from down south and anything that becomes needed suddenly need to be hot shotted up at a huge expense.

The cost of doing business up here is staggering and it is one of the main reasons that investment in the oil sands has been very slow of late, projects like Voyager are shut down half completed, and companies like Stat Oil bail on the oil sands and decide to go do offshore instead. With $100/barrel oil there is simply not much profit margin due to the staggering costs of living in Fort McMurray that the province and the municipality have allowed to develop.

With things brought under control in Fort McMurray and the cost of living dropping to a more reasonable level (more akin to Calgary or Edmonton) investment would sky rocket in the oil sands AND there would be the potential for some room for some increased royalties for down the road as companies see increased profit margins. Way too much money is pissed away in Fort McMurray atm on things that offer very little benefit to the municipality, province, or the country.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

I wonder how much of it is the municipality withholding land or the province withholding land. The province has been slow to release land for the purposes of development.

Why not play with zoning in the central business district encouraging high-rise apartments.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Tropics

The stupid thing is that it costs this province and the entire country billions of dollars in lost revenue that would be generated from the oil sands if not for the staggering costs of doing business up here. The cost of living makes living locally unappealing for most people so companies spend upwards of $1000 a month flying someone in and another $4000 a month putting that single worker up in camp to do a 20/10 rotation. That single worker costs a company $60,000 more just on flight and lodging then they would if Fort McMurray were a reasonable place to live such that employers could hire people and get them to live locally.

Drilling companies are unable/unwilling to buy property to build laydown yards and shops locally so everything is transported from down south and anything that becomes needed suddenly need to be hot shotted up at a huge expense.

The cost of doing business up here is staggering and it is one of the main reasons that investment in the oil sands has been very slow of late, projects like Voyager are shut down half completed, and companies like Stat Oil bail on the oil sands and decide to go do offshore instead. With $100/barrel oil there is simply not much profit margin due to the staggering costs of living in Fort McMurray that the province and the municipality have allowed to develop.

With things brought under control in Fort McMurray and the cost of living dropping to a more reasonable level (more akin to Calgary or Edmonton) investment would sky rocket in the oil sands AND there would be the potential for some room for some increased royalties for down the road as companies see increased profit margins. Way too much money is pissed away in Fort McMurray atm on things that offer very little benefit to the municipality, province, or the country.

So why can't the city just take charge and allow condos to be constructed en masse? It might take a while to get the equipment up there, but once it is, they could have 5 towers going at a time in a city that size with its massive population demands for rental, condo, and hotel spaces.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

So why can't the city just take charge and allow condos to be constructed en masse? It might take a while to get the equipment up there, but once it is, they could have 5 towers going at a time in a city that size with its massive population demands for rental, condo, and hotel spaces.

First off building condos up here costs a mint due to the excessive land costs and the hugely inflated manpower costs. The framing, the electrical, the plumbing, it all costs a premium and I am not talking 10 or 20% more.

Second of all the condos built up here are more often then not built to a low standard. Things like the Penhorwood have killed the faith people have in condos but things like the massive leaking issues in The Peaks up in Timberlea and the massive issues The Ridge have had such that condo fees in a 1120sqf place are pushing $1000 and they are getting hit with special assessments like crazy murders the market.

Third of all with the massive rental costs in the city places sell for a HUGE premium despite the costs because inventors know they can rent a 2 bedroom condo out for $2800+ and as such you cannot touch one for under $450,000. I have been in the market for a long time, the top floor 2 bedroom 990sqf units in The Waterfront are selling for $550,000, that is a HUGE PPSQF.

The condo market in Fort McMurray is bonkers due to the low quality of most of the available contractors and the astronomical prices they charge. A good developer still have to use local trades and the "good" tradespeople can live anywhere and make good money, and they thus don't choose to live in FMM.

There is a HUGE market for high end condos in an awesome downtown development, but try to build one with great contractors and a high level of craftsmanship, you cannot afford to put non-local trades people up in $200 a night hotels in town in order to get the quality construction.

[Bcasey25raptor]

including the shadow population how large is fort mac these days?

Any up to date estimates?

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

including the shadow population how large is fort mac these days?

Any up to date estimates?

Some one from the GoA i was talking with said there was about 30000 undocumented residences, people living on spare beds, basements etc. between 30-40000 people in the camps and what ever the official population is.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Airboy

Some one from the GoA i was talking with said there was about 30000 undocumented residences, people living on spare beds, basements etc. between 30-40000 people in the camps and what ever the official population is.

Using the 30,000 and 30,000 that would put the population at about ~130,000 people roughly. I think using the camp population is a stretch as the camps are not in Fort McMurray and those people eat, sleep and commute without ever setting foot in town most of the time. So the actual population of Fort McMurray (registered and non-registered people who "live" in Fort McMurray) is likely in the 100,000 range give or take 5000.

That will change quickly once the current slowdown ends. ATM Fort McMurray is very slow.

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by Tropics

The stupid thing is that it costs this province and the entire country billions of dollars in lost revenue that would be generated from the oil sands if not for the staggering costs of doing business up here. The cost of living makes living locally unappealing for most people so companies spend upwards of $1000 a month flying someone in and another $4000 a month putting that single worker up in camp to do a 20/10 rotation. That single worker costs a company $60,000 more just on flight and lodging then they would if Fort McMurray were a reasonable place to live such that employers could hire people and get them to live locally.

Drilling companies are unable/unwilling to buy property to build laydown yards and shops locally so everything is transported from down south and anything that becomes needed suddenly need to be hot shotted up at a huge expense.

The cost of doing business up here is staggering and it is one of the main reasons that investment in the oil sands has been very slow of late, projects like Voyager are shut down half completed, and companies like Stat Oil bail on the oil sands and decide to go do offshore instead. With $100/barrel oil there is simply not much profit margin due to the staggering costs of living in Fort McMurray that the province and the municipality have allowed to develop.

With things brought under control in Fort McMurray and the cost of living dropping to a more reasonable level (more akin to Calgary or Edmonton) investment would sky rocket in the oil sands AND there would be the potential for some room for some increased royalties for down the road as companies see increased profit margins. Way too much money is pissed away in Fort McMurray atm on things that offer very little benefit to the municipality, province, or the country.

While the government can release more land and make a number of adjustments that could improve affordability slightly, the reality is that a small economy cannot absorb that volume of investment of outside capital flowing into it without causing inflation across all areas of the economy of the area.

I doubt you could get affordable housing in Fort Mac without full regulation of it, there is simply too much capital flowing in to avoid rampant inflation. If everyone makes 200,000 a year (or 100K or 500K for that matter) housing will become more expensive to reflect that. Same with everything else. Rapid growth of population creates a bubble that pushes things up even further, but the base is already much higher than cities like Calgary and Edmonton.

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by Tropics

Using the 30,000 and 30,000 that would put the population at about ~130,000 people roughly. I think using the camp population is a stretch as the camps are not in Fort McMurray and those people eat, sleep and commute without ever setting foot in town most of the time. So the actual population of Fort McMurray (registered and non-registered people who "live" in Fort McMurray) is likely in the 100,000 range give or take 5000.

That will change quickly once the current slowdown ends. ATM Fort McMurray is very slow.

Not sure what your definition of "very slow" is, but there are many large construction projects underway right now, in addition to the large housing developments as well.

[Tropics]

Originally Posted by Harrison

Not sure what your definition of "very slow" is, but there are many large construction projects underway right now, in addition to the large housing developments as well.

I am in the oil industry up here. Development of some condos and apartments in Longboat Landing and the Waters Edge are not what I was talking about.

Development in the actual oil sands industry is at a virtual standstill due to the economic reality of oil sands development and production and the price of oil atm.

Heritage Landing does not really trump the shutdown of a 8 billion dollar project like Voyager when it had already had billions sunk into it.

Plus, other then Heritage Landing and Water's Edge what else is there out there for condo or apartment developments? East Village up in Eagle Ridge is simply another glorified rental suite development that is only affordable for oil companies putting their people up in, they are charging hotel levels of money in that place.

The reality is The Summits up in Fort McMurray just dropped the prices on the many dozens of units they still had for sale YEARS after they had them built to try and dump them. I keep my eye on MLS constantly because I am in the market and nothing here is selling, people are asking a ton of money for their units and many on MLS have been there for the entire time I have lived up here, going on 18 months now...

If you think things are not slow up here atm I am guessing you have never been up here when things are actually booming? Compared to 2007 this place is at a standstill, and as far as the oil sands industry goes that is pretty much the actually reality of things. They are producing on already developed projects, but new project development is simply not being pushed atm.

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by Tropics

I am in the oil industry up here. Development of some condos and apartments in Longboat Landing and the Waters Edge are not what I was talking about.

Development in the actual oil sands industry is at a virtual standstill due to the economic reality of oil sands development and production and the price of oil atm.

Heritage Landing does not really trump the shutdown of a 8 billion dollar project like Voyager when it had already had billions sunk into it.

Plus, other then Heritage Landing and Water's Edge what else is there out there for condo or apartment developments? East Village up in Eagle Ridge is simply another glorified rental suite development that is only affordable for oil companies putting their people up in, they are charging hotel levels of money in that place.

The reality is The Summits up in Fort McMurray just dropped the prices on the many dozens of units they still had for sale YEARS after they had them built to try and dump them. I keep my eye on MLS constantly because I am in the market and nothing here is selling, people are asking a ton of money for their units and many on MLS have been there for the entire time I have lived up here, going on 18 months now...

If you think things are not slow up here atm I am guessing you have never been up here when things are actually booming? Compared to 2007 this place is at a standstill, and as far as the oil sands industry goes that is pretty much the actually reality of things. They are producing on already developed projects, but new project development is simply not being pushed atm.

I can't speak for the oil industry, as I am in the development industry up here, but there are a few larger developments in addition to those you've already mentioned that are coming down the pipeline quickly (i.e. Saline Creek Plateau, new commercial "power centre", Parsons Creek Phase 2, River Station and Quarry Ridge to name the major ones).

I do realize that there haven't been any announcements of new oil sands projects lately, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, as it gives the Municipality a chance to actually catch up in regards to infrastructure investment and other items that struggled to keep pace with the last boom.

All I am saying is that Fort Mac isn't at a "standstill" when there is obvious large-scale development happening atm.

[Airboy]

Talking with. A PM for the airport, the whole terminal will be up and running for the 9 th. Other than some minor close out issues.

[rapid_business]

Yup, there was a good article in the G&M about it yesterday.

[Airboy]

As I went by yesterday, quite a bit has been done in the last month. Big party and Air Show this weekend then she is open June 9th.