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  #22321  
Old Posted Yesterday, 9:48 PM
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Originally Posted by logan5 View Post
There are 5 million kids age 0-12 in Canada, and they do not spread the virus all that well, so we really need to vaccinate 33 million Canadians (out of 38). With 44 million doses expected before July, if we have enough capacity, we should be able to vaccinate that many people well before the end of June.

We should reach 50% immunizations fairly quickly. If we can ramp up to immunizing 1% per day, we can reach that by mid May, and probly be back to close to normal. Everybody 40 and over (who wants one) will have at least 1 shot, so hospitalizations will have dropped to a very low level.
Well they technically can't vaccinate people under 18 yet so that number is even less than that.

In Quebec, the target for June 24 is 5.3M or 62% of the population (all adults who wish to get vaccinated get their first dose). If you apply that proportion to Canada, you get a gross number of 23-24M.
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  #22322  
Old Posted Yesterday, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Migs View Post
And meanwhile maskless states like Texas are back to normal. Time to start asking some questions.
The United States has suffered more from COVID than Canada by any metric available. Time to start facing reality.
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  #22323  
Old Posted Yesterday, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
I really don’t see how any of you can be so confident in your predictions one way or the other. Most of your predictions have been wrong so far. Logan initially predicted we’d be having street parties celebrating the end last April.

It's basic math at this point. Given a rate of 300,000+ people being vaccinated per day, and 7 million already having received at least one does, it would theoretically take a maximum of 3 more months to conceivably vaccinate the remaining 31 million Canadians. And considering that the rate of vaccination is increasing, and that children are not eligible plus a certain percentage will refuse the vaccines, the date of full administration of the first dose will likely come even earlier than mid-July.

Of course anything could happen still - some scary new variant, supply chain disruptions, etc. - but all current trends & signs point to this being effectively contained by June or July.
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  #22324  
Old Posted Yesterday, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
The United States has suffered more from COVID than Canada by any metric available. Time to start facing reality.
I was looking at Florida's Covid numbers from April 9 as they have vaccinated quite a few people: still 7,011 new cases and 64 deaths yesterday out of 21 million.

Canada: 9,244 new cases and only 40 deaths out of 38 million.
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  #22325  
Old Posted Yesterday, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
I was looking at Florida's Covid numbers from April 9 as they have vaccinated quite a few people: still 7,011 new cases and 64 deaths yesterday out of 21 million.

Canada: 9,244 new cases and only 40 deaths out of 38 million.
yes but how many more opioid deaths have occurred, cancer and other urgent surgeries delayed, businesses that have gone under and increase in alcoholism, other drug abuse and depression in Canada due to the constant shutdowns?
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  #22326  
Old Posted Yesterday, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
I really don’t see how any of you can be so confident in your predictions one way or the other. Most of your predictions have been wrong so far. Logan initially predicted we’d be having street parties celebrating the end last April.
Our vaccine roll out got delayed by a month or so, so my predictions from November are a bit off. That being said, I am quite confident we will be having street parties very soon. Easily by June. Except you're not invited because you are too much of a downer.
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  #22327  
Old Posted Yesterday, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
It's basic math at this point. Given a rate of 300,000+ people being vaccinated per day, and 7 million already having received at least one does, it would theoretically take a maximum of 3 more months to conceivably vaccinate the remaining 31 million Canadians. And considering that the rate of vaccination is increasing, and that children are not eligible plus a certain percentage will refuse the vaccines, the date of full administration of the first dose will likely come even earlier than mid-July.

Of course anything could happen still - some scary new variant, supply chain disruptions, etc. - but all current trends & signs point to this being effectively contained by June or July.
I think we most likely will have low numbers by June. It’s just bizarre seeing the same people who have declared victory every month for a year accusing others of being delusional.
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  #22328  
Old Posted Today, 12:01 AM
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Americans don’t deal with cancer or opioid crises?
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  #22329  
Old Posted Today, 12:03 AM
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I've wondered a bit about what the "worst case" for different parts of Canada will be over time as more people get vaccinated. What happens if 10-40% of people, weighted toward the elderly and those in poorer health, get vaccinated as everybody else reverts to old behaviour and the spread increases a lot? This worst case is still pretty bad but the ceiling is gradually coming down.

I think the potential spread is far above what we have seen in Canada, so even if the highest risk for example get vaccinated and are perfectly prevented from ending up in the hospital, hospitalization could go up a lot. But I also think the "window of opportunity" for say New Brunswick to end up like the harder-hit US states is closing if not already closed.

I wonder what the true prevalence of the virus is too. I have not seen any comprehensive studies for Canada. The closest is the antibody seroprevalence surveys, but I have not seen anybody take data like that and integrate it into some estimates like what the US CDC produced. The meaning of the case count data is pretty unclear and could be getting less clear with vaccination. I guess we also then don't have good statistics on say the likelihood of hospitalization by age given infection; it's per detected case. American data is probably pretty close for Canada. It seems strange to me that there doesn't appear to have been much attempt to randomly sample the population to calculate positivity rates over time.

Yet another tangent but you hear a lot of people who demand lockdowns but don't talk much about what the net payoff is going to be or how it will evolve with vaccination. If you have a partly vaccinated population going from masked retail to curbside pickup for small businesses is likely to produce less benefit than in an unvaccinated population behaving like early March 2020. Eventually as vaccination rates increase the effect size of these interventions is going to shrink.
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  #22330  
Old Posted Today, 12:20 AM
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Originally Posted by memememe76 View Post
Americans don’t deal with cancer or opioid crises?
You win the internet.
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  #22331  
Old Posted Today, 12:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
I was looking at Florida's Covid numbers from April 9 as they have vaccinated quite a few people: still 7,011 new cases and 64 deaths yesterday out of 21 million.

Canada: 9,244 new cases and only 40 deaths out of 38 million.
Florida is fully open again while Canada is in partial or full lockdown.
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  #22332  
Old Posted Today, 1:05 AM
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Florida is at 32.8% with at least 1 dose. Canada is at 18.5% and climbing at nearly 1% per day. We should bevat Florida's level in 17 days or so. So it's not like we are way behind the States. And obviously different strategies. The US is willing to sacrifice some lives to open up earlier, which is their prerogative, but at this point the US is too far into its vaccination program for Covid to really take over again.
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  #22333  
Old Posted Today, 1:32 AM
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
yes but how many more opioid deaths have occurred, cancer and other urgent surgeries delayed, businesses that have gone under and increase in alcoholism, other drug abuse and depression in Canada due to the constant shutdowns?
Exactly. It’s fascinating how so many think Covid is everything & should trump all. It is possible to be both fully aware that covid is real and deadly while still believing that many of our approaches to handling it have been absurd, ineffective, disproportionate, and immoral.
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  #22334  
Old Posted Today, 2:46 AM
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
yes but how many more opioid deaths have occurred, cancer and other urgent surgeries delayed, businesses that have gone under and increase in alcoholism, other drug abuse and depression in Canada due to the constant shutdowns?
If only we had followed Australia or Taiwan’s example instead of half measures we wouldn’t be seeing a third wave a year into this pandemic. More restrictions upfront would mean less lockdowns longterm and less cases.
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  #22335  
Old Posted Today, 2:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Migs View Post
How would people ALREADY vaccinated letting their guard down lead to a resurgence in cases? Do you know what immunity means?
Your mentality is precisely what I am talking about. You aren’t instantly impervious immediately after your first shot. It takes 2-6 weeks. There are also variants that can reinfect you. Just because you would have a less severe outcome if you caught it doesn’t mean you couldn’t spread it to others if you threw caution to the wind.
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  #22336  
Old Posted Today, 3:45 AM
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