African Cities: 35 with at least 5 million people by 2050: The Economist

[MolsonExport]

The Economist, March 8, 2014.

From a tenth to a quarter

That has big implications for the overall size of the continent’s population. There were 1 billion Africans in 2010. The UN, using its “medium projections” (which imply continued convergence), reckons that the population will increase to 1.6 billion by 2030 and will double by 2050. But if the past few years are any guide, these medium projections are too low. According to the UN’s “high variant” (which implies a slower fall in fertility), Africa’s population will rise to 2.7 billion by 2050. If that were to happen, Africans would then account for more than a quarter of the world. In 1970, they made up only a tenth.

Such an increase in population would be associated with enormous rises in urbanisation and in the number of children. In 2010 Africa had three cities with over 5m inhabitants (Cairo; Kinshasa, Congo’s capital; and Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital). By 2050, it could have 35, with Kinshasa and Lagos each exceeding 30m. Other burgeoning mega-cities are Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam, Kenya’s Nairobi and Angola’s Luanda (see chart). Providing basic services to them all will be a nightmare.
Read full article here: http://www.economist.com/news/middle...rity-seem-have

[Insoluble]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The Economist, March 8, 2014.

It will be interesting to see how Africa develops over the next 35 years, For sure there are a ton of cities that are off the radar for this forum that just exploding with population and will very likely continue to grow. I'd love to see more threads on Lagos for instance. A city with close to 18 million people that I know virtually nothing about!

I'm always weary of articles like this though. Social sciences trying to extrapolate 35 years into the future based on current trends almost always end up being wrong.

There were 1 billion Africans in 2010. The UN, using its “medium projections” (which imply continued convergence), reckons that the population will increase to 1.6 billion by 2030 and will double by 2050. But if the past few years are any guide, these medium projections are too low. According to the UN’s “high variant” (which implies a slower fall in fertility), Africa’s population will rise to 2.7 billion by 2050.

The 2010 projections were off in the short term because the fertility rate did not fall as expected. What's to say that the high variant won't be off in the long term for the opposite reason? Still an interesting article though.

[Minato Ku]

Lagos and Kinshasha with more than 30 million inhabitants !!!
I hope they will start big infrastructure works and the sooner will be the better otherwise it will be hell.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Minato Ku

Lagos and Kinshasha with more than 30 million inhabitants !!!
I hope they will start big infrastructure works and the sooner will be the better otherwise it will be hell.

Those forecasts are total crap. I mean Ouagadougou with more inhabitants than Abidjan, seriously!

The growth potential of Luanda is also completely overestimated. On the other hand, they seem to have forgotten Douala and Yaoundé. Some regional metropolises of the DRC, like Lubumbashi, should also be in the top 10, but they are forgotten here.

This is a map that I posted in another thread. The DRC projected on a map of Europe, with its main cities and their population as of 2010. The regional cities of the DRC have a lot of growth potential (whereas Kinshasa is already so big that it's unlikely it will grow as much as the other DRC cities in the future).

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Insoluble

A city with close to 18 million people that I know virtually nothing about!

Lagos (pronounced like "Lay-gohs") was originally built on an island in a coastal lagoon. While the metropolitan mass sprawls across the surrounding land, that island means downtown Lagos is quite striking:



I have no idea how that city could handle 40 million though.

[ukw]

Meanwhile, in Denmark...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/m...-lot-more-sex/

According to government statistics, Denmark posted a birth rate of 10 per 1,000 residents in 2013 — its lowest in decades. The nation’s birthrate was 9.9 in 1983.

Denmark’s perennially low birth rate places it with Germany (8.33), Japan (8.39) and Singapore (7.72). And the downward trend has left people worried in Denmark. Most couples say they want two or three kids, according to the Copenhagen Post, but one in five couples wind up childless.

On Wednesday, a bold — and hilarious — campaign emerged in Denmark to reverse the trend. For the salvation of the country, a travel company-organized movement called “Do it for Denmark!” wants Danes to act and act now — without precautions. “Denmark is facing a crisis,” the company, Spies Rejser, says.

...
And just in case Danes are confused by this whole pregnancy thing, the company has offered a helpful how-to. “Use your cycle to identify the most likely time to conceive,” it explains. “Avoid stress. Get a massage. Try yoga. Take advantage of gravity. Lie down for at least 15 minutes after sex.”

“And men,” Spies admonishes, “avoid tight pants. Even if you think it looks good.”

[Barbarossa]

Like a tropical version of Dickensian London without the nice architecture.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Barbarossa

Like a tropical version of Dickensian London without the nice architecture.

Also scorching hot and full of mosquitos that carry malaria. I'll pass.

[middeljohn]

I guess they're going by city proper boundaries. Metro Johannesburg is already at 4.4M with the Johanmesburg-Soweto-Pretoria connurbation already over 10M people.

[photoLith]

Africa's going to be an even bigger disaster than it already is.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by photoLith

Africa's going to be an even bigger disaster than it already is.

Disease and famine will ravage these cities.

[Minato Ku]

I don't see why, I am rather positive about Africa future.
What worry me the most is the lack of infrastructure but when I see the big progress that China has done in just a decade I think that nothing is impossible for Africa.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by Minato Ku

I don't see why, I am rather positive about Africa future.
What worry me the most is the lack of infrastructure but when I see the big progress that China has done in just a decade I think that nothing is impossible for Africa.

I like the optimism, but African culture is drastically different than Chinese.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

I like the optimism, but African culture is drastically different than Chinese.

Could you explain the differences for the less educated?

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

Disease and famine will ravage these cities.

I feel Africa will experience something that China is experiencing right now. And that is the migration of millions of people from the country side to the cities. Actually, its happening right now, and will only accelerate. The thing is, a lot of the cities are horribly overpopulated, unsanitary, and do not have the infrastructure to support sustainable living conditions. Overcrowding, health, traffic, and many more issues will plague these cities. Also, how about jobs. Will job growth keep up with the migration of all of these people towards the major cities?

And not to say Africa doesn't have some great cities, not saying that, but they are few, and many of them do indeed have numerious issues, especially in what would be considered third world countries. This is not S.Korea, Japan, or Germany we are talking about; these countries have extreme poverty, high disease rates, and low literacy. It is going to be a huge challenge to sustain the populations that the projection indicates.

Now of course these type of projections tend to be wrong, but from a development standpoint, the people of Africa are going to have an enormous challenge ahead of them.

War is also a problem. Various factions fighting each other, and ethnic clashes going on in the Continental. The media doesn't like to talk about it, but Africa is the ignored WW3 involving numerous nations. Think about it? How many conflicts via civil wars have occurred in Africa in the last 30 years. Hundreds. Famine, pillaging, and power struggles have ravaged millions of lives. There Conflicts plague the continent, and some of these countries are going to have to deal with ethic divides, and power struggles with neighboring countries. Lets not forget about AIDS and virus's like Ebola which if not properly contained, could kill millions.

Point in summary is, Africa will rise, but they face a shit ton of issues which will only multiply as the population rises, and it is rising because families tend to have many children their; stemming from the agriculture mindset of having more kids to hunt and gather along with improving the probability that the kids will live past a certain age and support the family or even better, make it big in terms of business success or wealth (Being a doctor, engineer, ect). Elementary Anthropology concept right there.

Originally Posted by photoLith

Africa's going to be an even bigger disaster than it already is.

Well I think we all wish it the best, but I do agree with the notion that they will have a lot of issues as population rises. Africa is not China as one former pointed out. Big difference. But hey, sometimes people don't like the truth, and you are right in terms of discussions, a lot of Political correctness occurs. Its like when I say people don't want to move to the ghetto because of high crime rates. I'll usually get someone accuse me of being a sociopath or a racist, but people, its true... realities a bitch....., but anyways this is about the continent of Africa, and I hope it succeeds as we are all one people, humanity, we all are working to better mankind.

[babybackribs2314]

This is one of the most fascinating subjects to me, and one that is completely neglected in the media.

The # of people Africa is going to add is simply enormous.

What's unfortunate is that the West (and even wealthier parts of the developing world) are now transitioning beyond human-based labor. We obviously still have factories and sweat shops, but automating these processes will soon be cheaper than using extremely affordable human labor -- i.e., the kind that has driven factories from the West to the East, resulting in their industrialization & modernization.

This becomes incredibly tricky when considering Africa, as there is literally an entire continent that may end up missing out on the 'wealth transfer' that results from industrialization's utilization of human labor; over 2 billion people will have literally no path to a decent standard of living, keeping conditions similar to how they are today -- although the increase in population will lead to a worsening of averages across the board.

What we may ultimately see is a continent of two extremes; a very small elite that is extremely wealthy, and a vast number of people who barely subsist from day to day. Like today, but unimaginably worse.

Considering that cities like Lagos could feasibly approach 50 million people by 2050, the results are going to be shocking/de-humanizing/insane to watch unfold... and the inevitable urbanization of Africa is going to result in the most over-crowded & (likely) unsanitary conditions humans have ever seen. And unfortunately it would seem likely that such obscene poverty will lead to an outbreak of disease that we will not be able to manage... there will be a tipping point, and it will not be pretty.

For perspective: if the UN projections are correct in 2050, countries including Ethiopia and Uganda will have more people than the United States did in 1990. And Nigeria may even surpass the US by that point...

[MolsonExport]

curtains for the Serengeti

[jd3189]

Africa is rising up.

[photoLith]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Africa is rising up.

More like crashing into oblivion. Lets face facts, Sub-Saharan African societies never got much past hunting and gathering. I don't see a bright future for Sub-Sarahan Africa anywhere into the foreseeable future. I can't say too much on this ultra PC forum so I'll just leave it at that.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by photoLith

More like crashing into oblivion. Lets face facts, Sub-Saharan African societies never got much past hunting and gathering. I don't see a bright future for Sub-Sarahan Africa anywhere into the foreseeable future. I can't say too much on this ultra PC forum so I'll just leave it at that.

Africa is big place. Maybe educate yourself more in the continent you seem to know nothing about. High end Victoria Island Lagos rivals many of the nicest parts of the globe, Angola has been or performing the American economy for 7 years now, Africa is by far the largest land mass with the most diverse sub-set of ethnicities present. You wouldn't be ignorant to call each European the same simply because they are white, so don't all Africans together with one broad brush. China is doing what the West didn't do in activity trading technology and development for hard goods. Africa is now getting the infrastructure it needs badly an the technology to make more efficient economies that can grown with better ease.

Africa is the future. Smart European kids from Portugal and Spain whom see zero prospects at home are funneling into Africa in search of opportunities. It's the we west over there with man riches to be made. Keeps staying ignorant as it keeps on progressing forward. There is way more room for growth over there hen what is present in the west.