AUSTIN | Transportation Updates

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

We have seen a decrease in drunk driving accidents and DUIs and that's the main reason why I voted yes.

No we haven't.

Drunk driver arrests were flat and Austin traffic fatalities are up massively since 2014.

Turns out that irresponsible people will continue to be irresponsible. Even given one additional option (added to DDs, Night Owls, taxis, etc.)

[Cd1076]

Originally Posted by Novacek

No we haven't.

Drunk driver arrests were flat and Austin traffic fatalities are up massively since 2014.

Turns out that irresponsible people will continue to be irresponsible. Even given one additional option (added to DDs, Night Owls, taxis, etc.)

The sheer number of DUI arrests may have remained somewhat constant but Austin's population has grown tremendously since 2014. Overall, the per capita DUI rate has decreased. MADD even came out in support of Prop 1 for that very reason.

http://www.fox7austin.com/news/local...38320228-story

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Cd1076

The sheer number of DUI arrests may have remained somewhat constant but Austin's population has grown tremendously since 2014. Overall, the per capita DUI rate has decreased. MADD even came out in support of Prop 1 for that very reason.

http://www.fox7austin.com/news/local...38320228-story

Yeah. All of this. Novacek has a way of misunderstanding how numbers actually work when making inferences in essentially every argument he puts forth.

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by Novacek

No we haven't.

Drunk driver arrests were flat and Austin traffic fatalities are up massively since 2014.

Turns out that irresponsible people will continue to be irresponsible. Even given one additional option (added to DDs, Night Owls, taxis, etc.)

And a good chunk of those fatalities were just simply people driving wrecklessly. Yea I agree that all the options in the world won't change that. I think it's becoming a civil problem and the only way for it to change is if the general population changes habits.

Drunk driver arrests were flat which means that they were not rising, I'd say that is better than nothing.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Cd1076

The sheer number of DUI arrests may have remained somewhat constant but Austin's population has grown tremendously since 2014.

The CoA population grew like 3%. Yes, compared to other cities that's a lot, doesn't mean much for the YoY comparison. It's smaller than the statistical noise in the arrest rate.

Originally Posted by Cd1076

Overall, the per capita DUI rate has decreased.

Not in any statistically meaningful way. It dropped a bit and then jumped up again.


What's not statistical noise is the huge increase in traffic fatalities. Up 50% in 2015 over 2014.

Uber/Lyft didn't make us safer in any meaningful or measurable way.

[drummer]

What does seem to be a good thing to me (as I watch from 8000+ miles away) is that this is getting everyone and their dog talking about how to alleviate transportation issues. Most are just complaining, of course, but some folks are saying, "Okay, so now what?"

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

The problem with Get Me is that I've heard it's much more expensive, as one of the posts I came across broke down the numbers and in some cases is 4x more expensive than either Uber or Lyft. On top of that, the service isn't as good. Your not going to see a whole lot of transfer if the cost of running their service isn't reasonable and it's not going to be in the same price range because that extra cost of going with the city's regs are being handed down to the customer. I don't know anything nor have I read anything about the other company to say anything about it.

I was split on this vote because I can see both sides but it came down to how I've seen Uber and Lyft change the community for the better in all honesty. We have seen a decrease in drunk driving accidents and DUIs and that's the main reason why I voted yes. The next reason would be a whole lot of people who don't have a car or live near a bus line have started relying on Uber and Lyft to get to work ect... Taxis may be okay for just going down the street but they are really pricey these days. Last time I took a taxi from DT home, it was just over 20 bucks...I only live about 4.3 to 4.5 miles from DT. I was shocked.


I'm all for alternatives and I hope these other companies can take over some of the load. There will be customers who will switch over but I don't see a majority of people using it unless prices go down.

I have used Get Me. It is more expensive than Uber and Lyft. But it seems to cost about the same as a Taxi. So it's not the end of the world. It would be nice if they lowered prices.

I have had no trouble getting a Get Me. The cars have all shown up as quickly as a Uber or Lyft would. I'm downtown though. I don't know if that makes a difference on the pickup times. Even so, they will be signing up a ton of drivers now. There's no reason to believe that, within weeks, getting a Get Me will be any more problematic than Uber or Lyft.

It is not Uber and Lyft, but it is still better than Taxi service.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Uber/Lyft didn't make us safer in any meaningful or measurable way.

They made me and my friends safer in a measurable way. They are a HUGE IMPROVEMENT over other much less safe, much less convenient options.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by paul78701

They made me and my friends safer in a measurable way. They are a HUGE IMPROVEMENT over other much less safe, much less convenient options.

How did they make you safer?

They may have made it more convenient or cheaper (saving you from driving and having to pay for parking).

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Novacek

How did they make you safer?


They may have made it more convenient or cheaper (saving you from driving and having to pay for parking).

Less drunks on the road.


Yes, way cheaper. $6 from my house to Parkside on 6th. $8 to Rainey Street. $13 to the airport. These are the last rides I took that I can remember. I used Lyft at least a couple times a week.

What bothers me the most, and a lot of this bothers me, is that very little is said regarding the THOUSANDS of people/families out of a job (albeit a part-time job). But often time, a highly flexible part-time job is just what the Dr ordered when you need to cover the increasing rent or Christmas presents for the family.

I understand that the real reason behind the fight is regarding the 1099 status of the drivers. I am very disappointed that TNC's waged such a shitty campaign. They came off as GIANT pricks. I think if they just would have truthful about the independent contractor issue, it would have been better than saying..."fuck no, we don't want fingerprinting....and we can't really explain why." Maybe people are too stupid to understand what constitutes an employee or an independent contractor, but at least they would have been honest.

So far the Getme app is a joke and very expensive. The reason Uber/Lyft worked was the speed and low cost to consumer, and the ease of joining for the drivers. I hope Getme, and/or others, get it together and step in, but it is bullshit to think that a small untested company can just fill that void. Uber/Lyft had thousands upon thousands of drivers.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

Less drunks on the road.

Again, we have 0 evidence for that. In fact, the actual data suggests the opposite.

I'm out on my bike all the time, and it would be great if "ridesharing" meant that there were fewer drunks going past me. But it just doesn't seem like that was the case.

Those who were responsible before were responsible and used Uber. And those that were irresponsible before continued to be so.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Again, we have 0 evidence for that. In fact, the actual data suggests the opposite.

I'm out on my bike all the time, and it would be great if "ridesharing" meant that there were fewer drunks going past me. But it just doesn't seem like that was the case.

Those who were responsible before were responsible and used Uber. And those that were irresponsible before continued to be so.

I go downtown a few times a month. Live music, drinking with friends, playing pool, etc. At 2am, it is a mad scramble to get a TNC. I know for a fact that many of those people would have driven home, whether or not they would have been ticketed or had an accident.....no one could know. But trust me, you do not want those people on the road.

Again, this is just people who don't (or rarely) use these services waxing as if they know best. One Friday night on Rainey at 2:15am would blow your mind how many Uber/Lyft cars were picking up WASTED people. I don't care what the numbers say, my being there many times, tells me all I need to know. Every other car you saw was a TNC, and most everyone you saw getting into them, had NO business driving. Myself included.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

Again, this is just people who don't (or rarely) use these services waxing as if they know best.

No, it's me looking at the actual data instead of relying on anecdotes.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Novacek

No, it's me looking at the actual data instead of relying on anecdotes.

any data you have could not show causation either way. too many variables.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

any data you have could not show causation either way. too many variables.

^this^

This is observational research, and inherently cannot show causal processes except in some pretty rigorous and specific circumstances. Lesson for those reading to learn: causal inference is hard y'all and you shouldn't do it improperly on a message board online.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Yeah. All of this. Novacek has a way of misunderstanding how numbers actually work when making inferences in essentially every argument he puts forth.

Okay, why don't you explain "how numbers actually work"?

The claim was there has been a measurable decrease in drunk drivers, due to uber.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

any data you have could not show causation either way. too many variables.

Uh, that's exactly what I said. I said it was _suggestive_.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Okay, why don't you explain "how numbers actually work"?

The claim was there has been a measurable decrease in drunk drivers, due to uber.

I never said it was measurable. I said it was based on my observations. Which matter to me, like your observations on your bike matter to you.

The difference is I KNOW I'm right. Since my years at UT (87-92), I've been a patron of downtown bars. There is NO way I will ever believe that TNC's have not reduced drunken driving. I saw a huge difference in the number of people acting responsibly since TNC's came along. Everyone I know takes a TNC. NOBODY I know drives downtown to go out anymore.

I DO believe that it may not have led directly to a measurable reduction in tickets or accidents, but that doesn't mean less drunks were not driving. Just because not as many accidents or tickets were written, doesn't mean less drunks were not on the road. How many more people went downtown BECAUSE they didn't have to drive? I have a couple of friends who hadn't been downtown in years, due to the fact they have multiple DUI's and would not risk it. Now (or at least till last week) they go downtown all the time. For them to take a cab, it's almost $50 (including tip) each way from Leander. With a TNC, it is $20 each way.

Again, if you were there to see the way it was for the last 30 years, and the way it was for the last year, you would understand. People would risk it all the time, myself included....I'm ashamed to say. You would not be able to deny your observations.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Okay, why don't you explain "how numbers actually work"?

The claim was there has been a measurable decrease in drunk drivers, due to uber.

How do you know that drunk drivers wouldn't have increased even more over this time period than they would have without Uber and Lyft? Guess what industries are most affected by economic downturns? Those that rely on dispensable income, such as nightlife and recreation. Guess what the claim relies on? Nightlife and recreation driving Uber and Lyft's impact on less drunks on the road than there otherwise would be. Oh, and since the economic downturn happened right before Uber and Lyft became a thing, the increases in drunk driving you've seen have almost certainly (given my read of existing published literature -- and let's not get coy here, I'm an academic myself in the high ivory towers so I don't get cute I get drop. dead. gorgeous.) been caused by those other factors such as economic recovery and continued population growth -- it's just that the effect that Uber and Lyft's has had has not been enough to offset those other factors. Go take a nice long class on causal inference design and OLS regression, and once you do I'll suggest to you that the proper modeling here would be a linear interactive model clustered by city with random errors across individuals. Thanks and goodbye.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Oh, and since the economic downturn happened right before Uber and Lyft became a thing, the increases in drunk driving you've seen have almost certainly (given my read of existing published literature -- and let's not get coy here, I'm an academic myself in the high ivory towers so I don't get cute I get drop. dead. gorgeous.) been caused by those other factors such as economic recovery and continued population growth -- it's just that the effect that Uber and Lyft's has had has not been enough to offset those other factors.

Which economic downturn? 2008?

Or the one that's been hitting us in the last half of 2015 and onward? Using that theory, we'd be expecting DUIs to be going _down_ now.