Quote:
Originally Posted by PoshSteve
The big jump is primarily Crimea, which is why I mentioned "even if Crimea is subtracted". Match up the dots on either side of the big jump and the total population has been increasing. Most of the ethnic Russians who were going to go to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union have already done so prior to 2010 or so. There were years where millions immigrated to Russia. Now net migration is in the 100-200k range annually, mostly from Central Asia. "Massively" is subjective. Even Rosstat and the Kremlin project the population will decline by 2050. It's not going to be by 45M as was projected previously though, which is my point you seemed to have missed.
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There are different types of forecasts. The ones assuming lots of immigration or emigration tend to be not so accurate. That's what happened in those previous forecasts for Russian population.
However, if we pay attention to births/deaths only, we would hardly have any surprises. In Russia they had an improvement on life expectancy plus a surge in births. However both trends have stopped by now and Russia is once more shrinking.
They will need an always greater number of migration surplus and it's not likely they'll accomplish that.