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  #41  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 10:09 PM
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The big jump is primarily Crimea, which is why I mentioned "even if Crimea is subtracted". Match up the dots on either side of the big jump and the total population has been increasing. Most of the ethnic Russians who were going to go to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union have already done so prior to 2010 or so. There were years where millions immigrated to Russia. Now net migration is in the 100-200k range annually, mostly from Central Asia. "Massively" is subjective. Even Rosstat and the Kremlin project the population will decline by 2050. It's not going to be by 45M as was projected previously though, which is my point you seemed to have missed.
There are different types of forecasts. The ones assuming lots of immigration or emigration tend to be not so accurate. That's what happened in those previous forecasts for Russian population.

However, if we pay attention to births/deaths only, we would hardly have any surprises. In Russia they had an improvement on life expectancy plus a surge in births. However both trends have stopped by now and Russia is once more shrinking.

They will need an always greater number of migration surplus and it's not likely they'll accomplish that.
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  #42  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
There are different types of forecasts. The ones assuming lots of immigration or emigration tend to be not so accurate. That's what happened in those previous forecasts for Russian population.

However, if we pay attention to births/deaths only, we would hardly have any surprises. In Russia they had an improvement on life expectancy plus a surge in births. However both trends have stopped by now and Russia is once more shrinking.

They will need an always greater number of migration surplus and it's not likely they'll accomplish that.
You're absolutely correct. I don't see any future where Russia's population in 2050 is larger than it is now - barring being over run by climate refugees or something else extreme and unlikely. I just use Russia as an example that these types of predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as any small change now can have huge effects down the road. No one making the predictions in the 90s/00s saw the country reversing the decline and growing over the last ten years. The predictions were births would remain low and deaths would remain high, which is not what happened.

What is really of interest to me is how the demographics of Russia diverged with the other eastern European countries over the last 20 years. Russia wasn't the only country with pro-natalist policies, nor was it the country with the best increase in standard of living or economic growth. Yet it was the only country to see population growth.
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  #43  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 12:03 AM
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Originally Posted by PoshSteve View Post
You're absolutely correct. I don't see any future where Russia's population in 2050 is larger than it is now - barring being over run by climate refugees or something else extreme and unlikely. I just use Russia as an example that these types of predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as any small change now can have huge effects down the road. No one making the predictions in the 90s/00s saw the country reversing the decline and growing over the last ten years. The predictions were births would remain low and deaths would remain high, which is not what happened.

What is really of interest to me is how the demographics of Russia diverged with the other eastern European countries over the last 20 years. Russia wasn't the only country with pro-natalist policies, nor was it the country with the best increase in standard of living or economic growth. Yet it was the only country to see population growth.
Indeed Russian rebound was unexpected and hasn't been reproduced elsewhere even in neighbouring places (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland). I guess being a big country, with two big and dynamic metropolises might have helped, I don't know.

It's an unique case, like Argentina with its very stable (and rather high) fertility rate over the past five decades.
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  #44  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 5:52 AM
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Originally Posted by PoshSteve View Post
You're absolutely correct. I don't see any future where Russia's population in 2050 is larger than it is now - barring being over run by climate refugees or something else extreme and unlikely. I just use Russia as an example that these types of predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as any small change now can have huge effects down the road. No one making the predictions in the 90s/00s saw the country reversing the decline and growing over the last ten years. The predictions were births would remain low and deaths would remain high, which is not what happened.

What is really of interest to me is how the demographics of Russia diverged with the other eastern European countries over the last 20 years. Russia wasn't the only country with pro-natalist policies, nor was it the country with the best increase in standard of living or economic growth. Yet it was the only country to see population growth.
I wonder how many Russian emigrees move back to Russia to retire. It's not super common for Romanians, but I know a few.
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  #45  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2020, 11:57 PM
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A bit related, Brazilian notary's offices are releasing online the number of births and deaths registered in the country.

As we're nearing the end, it's possible to forecast with a high degree of certainty that there will be 2.62 million-2.64 million of births in 2020 (minus 120k-140k compared to 2019) while deaths are mirroring almost exactly the number of official Covid fatalities: 1.45 million (190k above 2019).

Therefore, Brazilian natural growth will be abruptly reduced from 1.5 million (2019) to 1.2 million (2020). I guess we'll might see some recovery in 2021, but the trend is set.
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  #46  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2020, 12:26 AM
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A major problems faced by immigrant growth dependent countries like Can/US/Aus/NZ and some European nations is that it makes urban and economic long term planning very difficult.

Demographers and sociologists can generally forecast birth & death rates and make good demographic projections but when immigration plays a major role it throws everything out the window. This is because immigration levels are a political decision and hence can change on a dime.

In Canada our population growth this year has completely collapsed because 80% of Canada's population growth is due strictly dependent upon immigration. COVID is certainly a unique situation but exemplifies the wild swings that can take place due to political changes and priorities.
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  #47  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2020, 12:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
A major problems faced by immigrant growth dependent countries like Can/US/Aus/NZ and some European nations is that it makes urban and economic long term planning very difficult.

Demographers and sociologists can generally forecast birth & death rates and make good demographic projections but when immigration plays a major role it throws everything out the window. This is because immigration levels are a political decision and hence can change on a dime.

In Canada our population growth this year has completely collapsed because 80% of Canada's population growth is due strictly dependent upon immigration. COVID is certainly a unique situation but exemplifies the wild swings that can take place due to political changes and priorities.
For Brazil, is much easier as it just runs a negligible net migration. For states, domestic migration is a factor, but today is much lower than in the US, for example.
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