Queen's Park Politics

[haljackey]

How close are the libs to losing their majority via by-elections?

[1overcosc]

It would take five losses for Wynne to lose her majority.

The Liberals were up one from gaining Sudbury from the NDP in the 2015 by election; the loss of Scarborough Rouge River brings them back to where they started.

The Liberals won Vanier by a 34 point margin in 2014. Even factoring in PC gains and Liberal losses in the polls since the last election the Liberals are still up 16 points there.

For that reason, any result closer than 10 points should essentially be considered a Liberal "loss".

[1overcosc]

The Liberals are now making major moves on hydro. Goes to show quickly they can move when they are under pressure.

In addition to taking off sales tax, three other developments have happened in recent weeks. The Liberals managed to find enough savings for the OEB to freeze hydro rates... for the first time in a decade hydro rates won't go up with the next semiannual adjustment.

They also signed an agreement today to buy power from Quebec. And a few weeks ago they scrapped plans to build more power plants. Both measures will reduce costs.

[SteelTown]

An 19 or 18 year old Sam Oosterhoff won the PC nomination for former Tim Hudak's riding of Niagara West—Glanbrook.

He's a Brock student and is a neocon and social conservative. Just what Ontario needs more of, uh!

Guess Niagara West—Glanbrook is a write-off for the PC, either NDP or Liberal.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

An 19 or 18 year old Sam Oosterhoff won the PC nomination for former Tim Hudak's riding of Niagara West—Glanbrook.

He's a Brock student and is a neocon and social conservative. Just what Ontario needs more of, uh!

Guess Niagara West—Glanbrook is a write-off for the PC, either NDP or Liberal.

That particular drama says a lot about the PC Party.

Brown's handpicked candidate for that riding was former MP Rick Dykstra who is also the President of the PC Party. Dykstra is known to be a moderate with socially liberal views and was a fairly competent MP, so Brown was probably counting on him being added to the PC caucus to help moderate the party and add some critical bench experience.

Not only did Dykstra lose but a popular and experienced municipal politician also lost. It appears the sole reason this completely unqualified kid won was because he was the only one who expressed socially conservative views.

Brown may be pushing moderation at the top but the party base who controls the nominations is clearly not on board. He's going to have difficulty waging an effective campaign in 2018 if this continues.. and if he wins the election and becomes Premier, he'll have a very hard time picking a cabinet and the backbenches will be difficult to control.

The Liberals are too unpopular in the outer 905s right now to have much of a hope of winning Niagara West-Glanbrook, but the NDP may have a very good shot now. The NDP have a solid base in the area and they may be able to exploit Oosterhoff's lack of qualification for the job to draw protest votes.

One cool tidbit: in the likely scenario that Oosterhoff wins, he'll be the youngest MPP in history.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

An 19 or 18 year old Sam Oosterhoff won the PC nomination for former Tim Hudak's riding of Niagara West—Glanbrook.

He's a Brock student and is a neocon and social conservative. Just what Ontario needs more of, uh!

Guess Niagara West—Glanbrook is a write-off for the PC, either NDP or Liberal.

I've said on here many times that the extremists have taken over the PC Party and here is more evidence that it is happening.

And Sam Oosterhoff seems to be a lot like PC leader Patrick Brown. They manage to defeat moderate "establishment" type candidates and really hurt the party's chance among the general population.

I have to agree that many people in that electoral district may consider voting NDP.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

That particular drama says a lot about the PC Party.

Brown's handpicked candidate for that riding was former MP Rick Dykstra who is also the President of the PC Party. Dykstra is known to be a moderate with socially liberal views and was a fairly competent MP, so Brown was probably counting on him being added to the PC caucus to help moderate the party and add some critical bench experience.

Not only did Dykstra lose but a popular and experienced municipal politician also lost. It appears the sole reason this completely unqualified kid won was because he was the only one who expressed socially conservative views.

Brown may be pushing moderation at the top but the party base who controls the nominations is clearly not on board. He's going to have difficulty waging an effective campaign in 2018 if this continues.. and if he wins the election and becomes Premier, he'll have a very hard time picking a cabinet and the backbenches will be difficult to control.

The Liberals are too unpopular in the outer 905s right now to have much of a hope of winning Niagara West-Glanbrook, but the NDP may have a very good shot now. The NDP have a solid base in the area and they may be able to exploit Oosterhoff's lack of qualification for the job to draw protest votes.

One cool tidbit: in the likely scenario that Oosterhoff wins, he'll be the youngest MPP in history.

From what I could tell, Patrick Brown was NOT pushing him at all...the party base decided to give middle finger to the establishment there. I believe it was revenge over Brown's flip flops.

Is the riding far enough from Toronto that those views have enough popularity there? Even a few years ago that would have been a slam dunk. But today? Not sure.

[SteelTown]

The majority of Niagara West-Glanbrook covers Stoney Creek and than pretty much the rest is Erie-Lincoln. So the issues is pretty much suburban driven, electricity bills, improved GO Transit into the area, QEW traffic, and Fruit/Wine. So the issues are separate from Toronto's issues.

The NDP candidate, Mike Thomas, is a former Hamilton Police officer and former president of the Hamilton Police Association (union). He lives in Binbrook, which I believe is the highest populated area in the riding. He currently works for Hydro One, security specialist. So he has a unique inside perspective of Hydro One that the NDP could use.

The Liberal candidate is a Hamilton lawyer, Vicky Ringuette.

Don't forget Niagara West-Glanbrook is sandwiched between two traditional NDP ridings, Welland (remember Peter Kormos?) and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

The majority of Niagara West-Glanbrook covers Stoney Creek and than pretty much the rest is Erie-Lincoln. So the issues is pretty much suburban driven, electricity bills, improved GO Transit into the area, QEW traffic, and Fruit/Wine. So the issues are separate from Toronto's issues.

The NDP candidate, Mike Thomas, is a former Hamilton Police officer and former president of the Hamilton Police Association (union). He lives in Binbrook, which I believe is the highest populated area in the riding. He currently works for Hydro One, security specialist. So he has a unique inside perspective of Hydro One that the NDP could use.

The Liberal candidate is a Hamilton lawyer, Vicky Ringuette.

Don't forget Niagara West-Glanbrook is sandwiched between two traditional NDP ridings, Welland (remember Peter Kormos?) and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek.

Also luckily for all of them, redistribution gives them each a riding to run in 2018. Unfortunately for Dykstra, Niagara West (his home base) is the more conservative of the two ridings, and likely where Oosterhoff did best in. A candidate like Oosterhoff would likely be a slight favorite at best in Flamborough-Glanbrook (maybe a tossup), while a strong favorite in Niagara West.

Looking at the geography of the riding and the federal results, I'd expect Oosterhoff to do very well (better than usual due to the rebellious nature) in the old Lincoln County south of the escarpment and around Binbrook, but the QEW corridor (particularly Grimsby) and the rest of the Hamilton part will surely be more challenging than it should have been.

The Liberal vote IMO is the wild card. Most likely they will finish 3rd, but will they get enough votes to split up the anti-Conservative vote?

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

The majority of Niagara West-Glanbrook covers Stoney Creek and than pretty much the rest is Erie-Lincoln. So the issues is pretty much suburban driven, electricity bills, improved GO Transit into the area, QEW traffic, and Fruit/Wine. So the issues are separate from Toronto's issues.

The NDP candidate, Mike Thomas, is a former Hamilton Police officer and former president of the Hamilton Police Association (union). He lives in Binbrook, which I believe is the highest populated area in the riding. He currently works for Hydro One, security specialist. So he has a unique inside perspective of Hydro One that the NDP could use.

The Liberal candidate is a Hamilton lawyer, Vicky Ringuette.

Don't forget Niagara West-Glanbrook is sandwiched between two traditional NDP ridings, Welland (remember Peter Kormos?) and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek.

If the NDP are to win in 2018, places like suburban Niagara are one of the spots they have to break through in.

Another area for the NDP to target would be mostly rural ridings that contain small cities within them. Examples of such ridings:
-Sarnia-Lambton
-Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry (contains Cornwall)
-Chatham-Kent-Leamington
-Oxford (contains Woodstock)

In these types of ridings, the small city often has a base of NDP support, but the rural hinterlands vote PC overwhelmingly which makes them solid PC seats. The ongoing discontent within the PC party could allow the NDP to draw in rural votes (as the NDP's positions on economic issues, at least outside of the urban socialist factions, are often quite aligned with rural interests). While this probably isn't enough for the NDP to come in first place in rural areas, it could be enough to give them a solid second among rural voters, which in these mixed ridings could combine with the NDP base in the small cities to bring them over the top.

A smart promise Horwath could make to get these rural voters onside with her could be to propose increased autonomy for rural counties. It wouldn't be inconsistent with the views of her party base (in fact, it could be part of a package which includes autonomy for the North, which would very much appeal to her base) and it could draw in single issue rural votes.

[Loco101]

Another thing to look at is how well the NDP did in those places in 1990.

NDP candidates won in every Niagara electoral district except for St. Catherines which was narrowly won by Liberal Jim Bradley and who is still MPP and has been one since 1977!

Some of the 1990 Niagara wins were by large margins and some were very split and very close. But the NDP managed to win in the traditional PC ridings.

I do realize that the boundaries are quite different today as compared to 26 years ago but there is certainly potential for the NDP. Think of who is nearby to help with campaigning in for the current by-election. NDP leader Andrea Horwath represents Hamilton-Centre and I believe two other Hamilton seats are held by NDP MPPs. And we can't forget that in Niagara Cindy Forster is MPP for Welland and Wayne Gates is the MPP for Niagara Falls. I'm sure they will all be campaigning hard for Mike Thomas.

[Docere]

Niagara West is a bit of a "Bible belt" and a very safe Conservative riding.

[Loco101]

Does anyone think that the Trump and Republican victories in the U.S. might influence the next Ontario election? I guess it will depend on how Trump is perceived as President but since the PCs don't really have a platform right now, I'm wondering if they might take some of the ideas (especially economic and anti-environmental) from the Trump campaign?

[1overcosc]

Under Brown the PCs seem to be refashioning themselves as a populist version of the Liberals. This strategy will likely tap into the same group that elected Trump in the states. That said, the dissatisfaction that led to trump's win doesn't really exist here thanks to the much stronger social safety net and less income inequality.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Under Brown the PCs seem to be refashioning themselves as a populist version of the Liberals. This strategy will likely tap into the same group that elected Trump in the states. That said, the dissatisfaction that led to trump's win doesn't really exist here thanks to the much stronger social safety net and less income inequality.

Given the extremely stark urban-rural differences, it is a tough balancing act.

If they go too soft, they risk losing the base (and those rural seats, especially in SW Ontario, could end up with the NDP as a result on either populism or attrition). But if they go hard towards populism or hard conservatism, the GTA could flip quickly back to the Liberals.

[1overcosc]

An approach that is populist while still centrist could easily win most of the GTA.

I think given the animosity towards the Liberals at the moment, the PCs could get away with alienating the rural base in this election, as the Liberals are enough of a bogeyman to distract them. That won't work much past 2018, though.

[eternallyme]

It makes me think...if Wynne loses both and resigns as leader, who could be her replacement? It probably won't come from federal politics knowing he or she has to right a sinking ship instead of being at their pinnacle...municipal politics may be the best source since that can avoid ties to an extremely scandalous regime.

[eternallyme]

Looks like status quo. Oosterhoff wins Niagara West-Glanbrook (it appears) with a slightly increased margin over the NDP and the Liberal vote collapsing. Meanwhile, Ottawa-Vanier remains safely Liberal, they are headed to a win by about 30 points and likely save Wynne's job since she can at least hold the fortresses.

[1overcosc]

NDP vote had a noticeable uptick in Niagara West-Glanbrook; perhaps some pockets of the riding (like Grimsby) registered their dissent with Oosterhoff but otherwise it was easy sailing for him.

This is not what the media will think in all their reactions; but honestly, I think that given how young Oosterhoff is, his radical opinions are probably going to tone down a lot as he matures.

He was homeschooled right up until he was 18; so his social maturity probably lags behind his age to an extent; furthering my point.

What's interesting is that as he is 19 years old and elected in a seat that is very safe for the PCs in the long term, Oosterhoff may have a very long career ahead of him. He may very well stay in Queen's Park until the 2060s which would likely give him a lengthy stint as Dean of the House at mid-century. And most of his current QP colleagues would be long dead by then.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

NDP vote had a noticeable uptick in Niagara West-Glanbrook; perhaps some pockets of the riding (like Grimsby) registered their dissent with Oosterhoff but otherwise it was easy sailing for him.

This is not what the media will think in all their reactions; but honestly, I think that given how young Oosterhoff is, his radical opinions are probably going to tone down a lot as he matures.

He was homeschooled right up until he was 18; so his social maturity probably lags behind his age to an extent; furthering my point.

What's interesting is that as he is 19 years old and elected in a seat that is very safe for the PCs in the long term, Oosterhoff may have a very long career ahead of him. He may very well stay in Queen's Park until the 2060s which would likely give him a lengthy stint as Dean of the House at mid-century. And most of his current QP colleagues would be long dead by then.

That is if he doesn't decide to move up to federal politics. Dean Allison (the MP) isn't especially old but he has been around since 2004. It's NOT the norm for such a young candidate to get such a safe seat for their party (often they are sacrificial lambs) but this was an unusual circumstance. I could see it repeated in more safe conservative ridings though if their MP or MPP is not in line with their views...

After redistribution, does Oosterhoff run in Niagara West or in Flamborough-Glanbrook?