StatsCan released GDP numbers for 2023, and the numbers were fairly muted, which was expected given economic softness and the battle between inflation and stimulating growth. Here is an except along with the final figures by province:
Economic growth slows in 2023
In 2023, for the second consecutive year, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew in every province in Canada, except Newfoundland and Labrador, albeit at a slower pace compared with a year earlier for most.
In the territories, production slowed in Yukon and declined in the Northwest Territories, while Nunavut was the sole Canadian jurisdiction where economic growth meaningfully accelerated, with a nation-leading 3.4% increase in 2023.
Although record population growth helped spur economic activity, tight monetary policy, persistent inflation and several climate change-related events constrained output growth across Canada in 2023.
Higher output from services-producing industries in every province and territory bolstered overall economic growth during a challenging year for goods-producing industries in most of Canada in 2023.
Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta were the largest contributors to economic growth in 2023
Ontario (contribution of +0.60 percentage points) was the largest contributor to Canada's economic growth, accounting for almost half of the 1.2% increase in national GDP in 2023.
British Columbia (+0.23 percentage points) was the second-largest contributor to national economic growth, surpassing Alberta (+0.22 percentage points) and well ahead of Saskatchewan (+0.06 percentage points) and Quebec (+0.05 percentage points).
Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.04 percentage points) was the largest drag on national economic output for the third time in six years.
PE +2.21%
BC +1.63%
SK +1.60%
ON +1.58%
AB +1.45%
NB +1.35%
NS +1.34%
MB +1.32%
QC +0.23%
NL -2.49% (only province with negative growth)
NU +3.40
YK +1.60%
NT -0.07% (only territory with negative growth)
From various other sources, there was a difference between what economists had forecasted for 2023, and what actually happened. TD Bank's 2023 predictions below, along with the actual StatCan figure in brackets:
PE +2.3% (+2.21%)
AB +2.2% (+1.45%)
MB +1.6% (+1.32%)
NS +1.4% (+1.34%)
SK +1.2% (+1.60%)
ON +1.1% (+1.58%)
NB +1.1% (+1.35%)
BC +0.9% (+1.63%)
QC +0.3% (+0.23%)
NL -0.4% (-2.49%)
TD's predictions were not totally off, but definitely some notable revisions. They over estimated AB's growth, where apparently construction growth has not materialized a smuch as they thought. They marginally over-estimated growth in MB, NS, PE and QC, while underestimating BC, SK, and ON. BC seems to be the most off, TD had been predicting much more of a slowndown and muted performance relative to other provinces, but that didn't happen in 2023. Predicted to be 2nd lowest, it came out 2nd highest, but in a very very narrow range with the other provinces. 2024 will be interesting, forecasting is fun but always to be taken with a bag of salt, lol
TD report for reference
https://economics.td.com/domains/eco...st_Dec2023.pdf
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but Waterloo was already on a rapid upward trajectory
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