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Originally Posted by Thirsty
This is off topic, but every climate projection I've read has Tucson progressively turning into Phoenix/Yuma/Baghdad in the coming decades which makes sense except for... when ocean temperatures are high, the pacific low that causes the monsoon moves south and Tucson gets record rainfall.
Like everyone else on the internet; I've earned an advanced degree in fill in the blank from Wikipedia University.
Can anyone explain why my amateur meteorology is missing the big picture?
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Scientists expect the amount of land affected by drought to grow by mid-century—and water resources in affected areas to decline as much as 30 percent. These changes occur partly because of an expanding atmospheric circulation pattern known as the Hadley Cell—in which warm air in the tropics rises, loses moisture to tropical thunderstorms, and descends in the subtropics as dry air. As jet streams continue to shift to higher latitudes, and storm patterns shift along with them, semi-arid and desert areas are expected to expand.
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http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-...s/drought.html
Also, Phoenix is roughly in the same boat as Tucson. Phoenix averages over 8" of rain a year while Tucson gets around 12". I have also heard that 10" or less is sometimes used to define a desert. Most scientist today do not use these hard figures to describe deserts as there are many subcategories. The Sonoran Desert is mostly a subtropical/semi-arid desert and is the wettest desert in the world...with the exception of some regions like Yuma which only receives about 3". However, you are wrong about Bagdad, AZ (unless you meant Baghdad, Iraq)...it actually gets more rain than Tucson and averages 14.4" a year (and 3" of snow per year). Phoenix, Tucson, and Bagdad receive much more rain than Las Vegas in the Mojave Desert. Vegas averages around 3.5" a year.
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