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  #201  
Old Posted Apr 9, 2015, 11:00 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is online now
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Two things that need dramatic overhauls:

1) Rail system (while the nations largest, its lagging behind the growth)
2) More housing (while we are seeing lots of it, its actually way below what should be built. Causing massive price increases all over. We need more housing along with strong efforts in transportation).

Unfortunately, I do not see much being done in the way of number one.

Housing I could see improving, as De Blasio has been making efforts through rezoning, and actually increasing his previous affordable housing plan, but its still not enough.
thats how i see it as well. and its a shame because that is going really bite back soon as the population continues to rise. there is so much needed, triboro rx, 2nd avenue, hudson tunnels, moynihan/penn, and the list goes on, but what to do except slog through it with more delays and disappointment.
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  #202  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2016, 1:30 AM
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We're less than 60 days away before the Census Bureau releases the 2015 population estimates for New York City and the nation's counties.

Let's play a fun game of predicting what the population numbers will be using Price is Right rules (whoever get's closes to the number without going over wins). The Census Bureau's estimate for 2014 was 8,491,079. For 2015, my guess is 8,540,643. 2013 to 2014 added an impressive 85,242 new residents, so entirely possible my guess is too low for 2014-15. Anyone else want to give it a shot?

Back in December 2013, the Department of City Planning forecasted the population of the city to rise to 8,550,971 in 2020. The city is growing much faster than anticipated since we likely exceeded that number this past June, 5 years early.

Keep it up NYC!

Last edited by C.; Jan 25, 2016 at 1:40 AM.
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  #203  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2016, 1:52 AM
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8,563,000. I'm hoping that a lot of units filled up and there's been tons of infill with new residents moving into in 2015 to push it to that number, but if I am low balling it, I hope I'm below. 8.6 is in sight, if not there already.
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  #204  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2016, 3:20 AM
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8,522,590

I like this game. Much better odds than the powerball.
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  #205  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 10:55 AM
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Last edited by Cynicism; Aug 10, 2020 at 10:07 PM.
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  #206  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 12:35 PM
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Curious as to why people are obsessed with the census data report. How do people benefit from this exactly...?
I'm even more curious as to why you are obsessed with criticizing a thread on census data. How exactly does anyone benefit from your inanities?
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  #207  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 2:36 PM
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wait, are there also estimates of the undocumented population and changes in that over the years? that would probably put it around 9M right now. i've always been curious about that, but never seen any numbers. does anyone have any info about it?
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  #208  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 4:25 PM
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wait, are there also estimates of the undocumented population and changes in that over the years? that would probably put it around 9M right now. i've always been curious about that, but never seen any numbers. does anyone have any info about it?
In theory the census estimates captures the undocumented population and there is outreach to them during the actual census.

In reality there is an underestimation and the true population of the city is likely closer to 9 million. Folks that came here as children may be more willing to fill it out, but if you're undocumented in this country and arrived in the last 10 years or so, there is no way you're filling out the census forms, despite any assurances that the US Census Bureau that the information won't be misused. What's the personal incentive to do so? Plus there is an unwarranted fear of being caught. (Folks that came here as children may be more willing to fill it out.)

As for incentive to filling out the census form, if there was a law passed that required undocumented persons to complete the form as a condition of future legalization, what the population of NYC shoot up to 9.5 million! j/k

Instead, we also we also see a 200,000-300,000 person difference between the Census Bureau's estimates and the actual decennial count for NYC. My theory is the estimate is more accurate and the count is off. Does anyone have any unbiased scientific studies on this very issue? I would be interested in seeing if there is a basis for my theory.

Cynicism, are you still here man? I would have thought you would have moved on or be banned right now. Sounds like you'll be here for the long haul. If you ever make it out to a forum meetup, I'll buy you a beer.
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  #209  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 8:14 PM
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The estimates might well be more accurate than the counts. I'm always mystified why some people think otherwise.
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  #210  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2016, 9:07 PM
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I predict the 2020 census will show 8,888,888.
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  #211  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 2:45 AM
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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
wait, are there also estimates of the undocumented population and changes in that over the years? that would probably put it around 9M right now. i've always been curious about that, but never seen any numbers. does anyone have any info about it?
I wonder that too because they say there's some 400-500k+ undocumented currently there. And that's just the core of NYC. Places like Newark have tons of illegals; likewise for Union City. Its probable that its slightly over 9 million.

What I would like to see is a recent study on the daytime population of the area. There was a NYU study some years ago, I think 2012, and a recent one would be neat for stats purposes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
The estimates might well be more accurate than the counts. I'm always mystified why some people think otherwise.
They usually tend to be closer to the value. The NYC 2010 census was botched. The figure of 8,491,079 seems appropriate for 2014, given the redevelopment of numerous areas and growth of certain boroughs. I suspect the new results will be a little under 8.6 million. Although I'd like to see the estimate account for the illegals.
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  #212  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 6:33 PM
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We now have the total 2015 housing permit numbers for U.S. cities.

NYC permitted 56,528 units of housing in 2015, which is the highest total since the 1960's.

For multifamily units, it might be the highest total since WW2? Not sure. There was tremendous building permit activity in the 1950's and 1960's, but much of it was the filling out of more suburban parts of Staten Island and eastern Queens.

I know NYC.gov keeps a list of housing permits dating back to the 1930's. I'll try and find it.
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  #213  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 6:39 PM
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http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml

SI 541
Brooklyn 26026
Bronx 4682
Queens 12667
Manhattan 12612

NYC 56528

The big story is that NYC housing production is anything but Manhattan-centric. The vast majority of housing construction is in the Outer Boroughs, especially Brooklyn. SI produces very little new housing.
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  #214  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 6:51 PM
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This is excellent news! 56,000 new units could easily equate to over 100,000 new residents. How many folks on average will live in each new single-family home?
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  #215  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 9:04 PM
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Regarding the counting of illegal/undoc immigrants... I was a census enumerator in 2010 in Illinois (I was between jobs and thought it was a good way to serve)... Enumerators are sent out to attempt contact with addresses that files show did not return the census form... The training and protocol was very competent and insists enumerators not ask about legal status and to explain to those they may suspect of illegal status what the census was and why it was important... I personally made contact with a small amount of people I strongly suspected were here illegally due to their apprehension to talk... But the point I wanted to make here was that the protocol for recording number of occupants for an addressed dwelling is fairly good in that it uses testimony of neighbors to confirm person count. I recorded dozens and dozens of properties as either vacant or occupied and if occupied, by how many by using neighbors testimony who's names are recorded as evidence of said testimony...

Long story short, I've always been very skeptical of these suggested undercounts of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants for this very reason. The same census enumerating methods are used coast to coast. I just can't see how that many people could be undercounted using those personal visitation methods without an elaborate conspiracy of some sort.
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  #216  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 9:29 PM
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The Census Bureau has been known to miss addresses, especially for illegal or unofficial dwelling units, one of the tenets of the city's 2010 challenge:

Quote:
The Census Challenge: The Final Statement

Overview

The Census Bureau, in cooperation with the Department of City Planning, had estimated the city’s population to be around 8.4 million as of July 2010. The 2010 Census enumerated New York City’s population at 8,175,133, well short of the estimate and, we believe, indicative of an undercount of the city’s population. This was partly due to the 2010 Census reporting an increase of 82,000 vacant units in New York City, or a 46 percent rise since 2000. A disproportionate share of this increase was found in two local census offices (LCOs) covering southern Brooklyn and northwest Queens, both vibrant sections of the city. The huge concentration of vacant units in these areas cannot be explained by new construction or foreclosures; nor is it consistent with other survey and administrative data. The City of New York challenged these census findings under the Census Bureau’s Count Question Resolution (CQR) Program.

In April of 2012, The Census Bureau determined that New York City’s CQR challenge of August 2011 would not result in a change in the City’s official 2010 population. The Census Bureau's examination of the addresses City Planning submitted did not reveal errors admissible under CQR. Admissible errors are only those concerning geographic boundaries and the processing of data already collected in the census enumeration; the Census Bureau does not change numbers produced from an enumeration, unless the error falls into those categories. The CQR process did not consider other types of errors in the 2010 Census that may have affected the city’s population count, including anomalies in the census count that we identified in portions of Brooklyn and Queens. These anomalies revealed significant shortcomings in Census Bureau procedures, which resulted in growing neighborhoods being undercounted. Therefore, we believe that it is important to provide those who develop policies, assess needs, plan programs and deliver services with revised, and albeit unofficial, populations for Brooklyn and Queens, based on a revision of the numbers for the two problematic areas. The revision also will be incorporated into the base population used to launch the next round of population projections for New York City.

It is important to note that the Census Bureau showed a real willingness to work with the City and carefully examined our appeal, but it is unfortunate that no mechanism currently exists to rectify the errors we identified. City Planning’s demographers and technical specialists will continue to engage with their counterparts at the Census Bureau to examine what occurred and to improve census procedures, thereby helping to ensure a more accurate count of New Yorkers in the 2020 Census.1
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/cen...nge_2010.shtml

Busy Bee, it's good to hear the Census has a robust method to count those who don't want to be counted as accurately as they can. I just still have a very hard time accepting that the neighborhoods with the most heavily undocumented population, with many living in illegal flats that are off the books and with multiple roommates, can be counted accurately.

I just can't see a recent Chinese, Dominican or even Irish arrival giving a dossier on each family on the block here without legal status because it's for the good of the country.
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  #217  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 10:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Busy Bee View Post
Regarding the counting of illegal/undoc immigrants... I was a census enumerator in 2010 in Illinois (I was between jobs and thought it was a good way to serve)... Enumerators are sent out to attempt contact with addresses that files show did not return the census form... The training and protocol was very competent and insists enumerators not ask about legal status and to explain to those they may suspect of illegal status what the census was and why it was important... I personally made contact with a small amount of people I strongly suspected were here illegally due to their apprehension to talk... But the point I wanted to make here was that the protocol for recording number of occupants for an addressed dwelling is fairly good in that it uses testimony of neighbors to confirm person count. I recorded dozens and dozens of properties as either vacant or occupied and if occupied, by how many by using neighbors testimony who's names are recorded as evidence of said testimony...

Long story short, I've always been very skeptical of these suggested undercounts of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants for this very reason. The same census enumerating methods are used coast to coast. I just can't see how that many people could be undercounted using those personal visitation methods without an elaborate conspiracy of some sort.
My own experience working with the Census people during the 2010 Census was, they definitely undercounted rural people, at least where I was working. There are just a lot of people living in the boonies who are hard to get a hold of, or figure out their address, or get access to their property, or they avoid being counted, etc. My own guesstimate is that it was about 5%.
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  #218  
Old Posted Jan 28, 2016, 10:45 PM
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So I take it that many of us are thinking 8.6 million; (+/-) 20,000?
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  #219  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2016, 1:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Busy Bee View Post
Regarding the counting of illegal/undoc immigrants... I was a census enumerator in 2010 in Illinois (I was between jobs and thought it was a good way to serve)... Enumerators are sent out to attempt contact with addresses that files show did not return the census form... The training and protocol was very competent and insists enumerators not ask about legal status and to explain to those they may suspect of illegal status what the census was and why it was important... I personally made contact with a small amount of people I strongly suspected were here illegally due to their apprehension to talk... But the point I wanted to make here was that the protocol for recording number of occupants for an addressed dwelling is fairly good in that it uses testimony of neighbors to confirm person count. I recorded dozens and dozens of properties as either vacant or occupied and if occupied, by how many by using neighbors testimony who's names are recorded as evidence of said testimony...

Long story short, I've always been very skeptical of these suggested undercounts of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants for this very reason. The same census enumerating methods are used coast to coast. I just can't see how that many people could be undercounted using those personal visitation methods without an elaborate conspiracy of some sort.
So are you saying that illegals are also counted into the official census as well as regular American citizens??? If that's the case, then it's no wonder why border states like CA, TX, AZ, and NM are beating states like NY, NJ, PA, and MA.
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  #220  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2016, 1:12 AM
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NJ, PA, or MA can't be compared to Texas or California. MA and NJ are dense, and have high populations for their landsize, but have never really been bigger than CA or TX, unless you consider year <1900. Even in 1900, Texas was bigger than NJ, although MA was bigger, but TX and CA quickly grew in the years to come, quickly eclipsing those states. Not due to all being illegals.

Now if we are talking about the birthrate of illegals vs legal Americans, its like comparing rabbits to pandas. AND yes, having too many kids is being selfish, especially when a lot of them can't afford it and thus carry out the burden to all of us.
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