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  #61  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 5:48 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
Maintenance is important. If you leave a Jaguar E-Type in your driveway for a few winters, or don't replace the roof on your 19th century rowhouse when needed, both will be worth less. Those price curves assume proper care. The cost of that care is what offsets the depreciation.

I also said "almost all" cars. Pre-WWII cars represent a very small percentage of cars in existence.
Yeah, but we're back to my original distinction between damage/wear and inherent depreciation solely due to the passage of time.

New appliances, new electronics, new cars, new clothes, etc. -- all of those things will inevitably lose value as they age EVEN if they're kept in perfect condition stored under a glass jar.

Sure, unfixed/unaddressed wear will cause a loss of value of about absolutely anything you can think of, whether it's normally of the depreciating or appreciating class. By that really wide definition, even land can depreciate -- agricultural land will deplete, and various land uses (even in urban areas) might contaminate the land, requiring expensive remediation later. But I'd definitely distinguish between that kind of value reduction coming from damage/alteration, and inherent depreciation regardless of wear.
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  #62  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 5:57 PM
brian_b brian_b is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Check out the Case Schiller index over the last 20 years.
20 years ago California house prices were lower than they were 30 years ago.

Beware of data that starts at the bottom of a crash.
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  #63  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 6:09 PM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
If a hail storm trashes the roof of a SFH in a normal American market between year N and year N+1, while the market in general is up +3%, you won't make the distinction and you'll consider that that house lost value?

The value of a house in typical condition appreciated during that period -- while basically all newer cars in the same city depreciated; note the difference -- but that particular house, due to damage, lost more than it gained over that period.

A pristine 1940 Ford Deluxe coupe in my heated garage would continue to reliably appreciate every single year, except during any given year when my neighbor decides to come while it's parked outside on a clear day and hit it savagely many times with a baseball bat because he's pissed at me, assuming I leave it like that (instead of paying to bring it back to a "normal" condition).

I'm pretty sure we nearly agree, we just seem to be defining the concepts slightly differently.





We're in agreement there.
Houses: investments or depreciating goods?

http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014...ing-goods.html
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  #64  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 10:37 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
Houses: investments or depreciating goods?

http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014...ing-goods.html
He's comparing houses to cars in terms of general behavior for value over time, which is exactly what I was saying... here's my initial post below

Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I disagree. They're more comparable to a car: depreciating at first as it passes from brand new to not-that-new to used, then pretty stable for a while as the passage of time doesn't really worsen noticeably its "already used and old at this point" status, and then at some point the value starts to rise as an antique that's both irreplaceable and desirable (and they're not making any more of them).

A well-maintained pre-Civil-War property in a good location won't be inherently depreciating over time -- at all.
BTW, I mostly agree with him. (Though I'm noting he's failing to consider what his parents would've paid in rent since 1978 to live somewhere else...)

I think there are condo buildings in NYC that are on rented land, am I correct? If so, it would be interesting to see how the value of an unit in such a building typically evolves over time. (It might also be the case in London as well.)
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  #65  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 11:49 PM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
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This is largely semantics, but my point is you can't really separate degradation from depreciation. It's what we mean by the term. So to say housing isn't essentially a depreciating asset is incorrect as all housing, no matter how well built, decays. A house being damaged by hail is exactly what we mean by depreciation. If nothing ever degraded we wouldn't even need the term depreciation, we would be able to describe everything in terms of consumer preferences and technological advancements of similar goods.

I'm not sure why you're saying he's agreeing with you, as his point is that houses always depreciate unless maintained (which is investment.)

Last edited by ChargerCarl; May 26, 2016 at 11:59 PM.
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  #66  
Old Posted May 26, 2016, 11:51 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by brian_b View Post
20 years ago California house prices were lower than they were 30 years ago.

Beware of data that starts at the bottom of a crash.
Except there is no extended period in recent history where Ohio real estate prices had stronger gains than Coastal California prices. That's kind of the whole point.

And if the Bay Area prices were starting at the bottom of a crash, so were the Ohio prices. Broad housing price trends are national, actual returns aren't.
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  #67  
Old Posted May 27, 2016, 1:34 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
This is largely semantics, but my point is you can't really separate degradation from depreciation. It's what we mean by the term. So to say housing isn't essentially a depreciating asset is incorrect as all housing, no matter how well built, decays. A house being damaged by hail is exactly what we mean by depreciation. If nothing ever degraded we wouldn't even need the term depreciation, we would be able to describe everything in terms of consumer preferences and technological advancements of similar goods.
There's a term for decay and there's a term for damage and there's a term for wear... and they're all different words from depreciation.

Hail damage isn't depreciation. It's damage due to a specific event. It's like the neighbor going over your car with a baseball bat, as opposed to your car simply depreciating normally through aging.


Quote:
I'm not sure why you're saying he's agreeing with you, as his point is that houses always depreciate unless maintained (which is investment.)
The reason him and I (and you, too) are in agreement is that all his analysis has been for new and new-ish houses (and cars). If you read my initial post that I re-quoted lately, his parents' house from 1978 to 2014 is a perfect example of a building in the first phase (depreciation due to growing old and out of taste and lacking the efficiency of newest technology) that I describe in my post.

But he's focusing on a newer, suburban cookie-cutter house and all his arguments are tailored to that situation. That "always" doesn't belong there. (Exact same thing applies to cars.)

I live in the same province as him, but in my neighborhood (my duplex is from the 1830s and most buildings around seem to be close to 200 years old; in any case, basically everything in the area is at least a century old) the passage of time does not noticeably reduce the desirability of the structures because they're already so old that it makes no difference.

For a brand new house though, sure, in 20 years it'll be a house where everything is dated, namely, out of style by exactly 20 years and lagging in tech and construction techniques by exactly 20 years.

Anyway, I'm sure we agree on everything but the semantics.

If I maintain my 2007 Civic well, in ten years it will be worth much less than what it's worth now, _even_ after I've regularly spent money to fight decay / keep it in the same stable condition. That car is an inherently depreciating item. Even if you manage to keep it in the same pristine condition, with zero wear or decay, it will still inexorably depreciate.

If I maintain my 1830s duplex well, in ten years the value of the "improvements" (calculated as property value minus land value) will almost certainly be as much as what it's worth now, ignoring -- as in the case of the Honda above -- the maintenance money regularly spent to fight decay / keep it in the same stable condition. It's not something that inherently depreciates through aging unless you let it decay, and even then the loss of value is due to the fact it's in a poorer condition, not that it's older, so it's semantically not inherent depreciation.
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  #68  
Old Posted Jun 14, 2016, 9:21 PM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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The UK ONS has just made it's house price statistics more comprehensive, including Scotland and Northern Ireland within the figures, improving coverage of cash purchases as well as mortgages and splitting averages by whether a home is new or existing and whether a purchaser is an existing homeowner or not.

My summary of the first release from the new data. £=$1.42 at the moment so you can see that several parts of central London have average prices over $1m/£700,000. The borough of Kensington & Chelsea has the highest average prices at around £1.15m ($1.65m). For the country as a whole thing the average is more like £210,000/$300,000 with quite a few areas under £140,000/$200,000. The very cheapest areas have averages around £70,000/$100,000.

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  #69  
Old Posted Jun 14, 2016, 10:53 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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You guys are sooooooo 20th century.

In Greater Vancouver a full 97% of all SFH are over a $1 million and unlike The Bay area, Vancouver is one of Canada's lowest income cities.
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  #70  
Old Posted Jun 14, 2016, 11:56 PM
JDRCRASH JDRCRASH is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLO View Post
If the economy takes a hit and people cant afford those mortgages we could see another pop in housing.
So in other words, the next recession probably won't start from the housing market like the last one did?
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  #71  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2016, 11:52 AM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
You guys are sooooooo 20th century.

In Greater Vancouver a full 97% of all SFH are over a $1 million and unlike The Bay area, Vancouver is one of Canada's lowest income cities.
That's Canadian dollars though right? $1m Canadian is 'only' US$750,000.

Further to info I posted above you can now get house price data from the ONS for England and Wales down to MSOA level which is small local areas of 5,000-10,000 people and the series goes back as far as 1995.

As an example here are the average prices over time for different types of home in my neighbourhood.



£1=US$1.42 at the moment so the median prices in dollars are approximately:

Detached houses $370,000
Semi-detached houses $290,000
ALL HOMES $255,000
Terrace/Row houses $225,000
Apartments/Flats $172,500

Most expensive neighbourhood in the list nationally was 'Westminster 019' in central London with a median price in Q4 2015 of £2.95m ($4.15m).

Full dataset here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peo...ollingyear.zip
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