2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA - Page 18

Crawford · #**341** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 3:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docere

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1333933935525572608

South Shore of Staten Island and Orthodox Brooklyn are deep red.

Some heavily Chinese and Korean areas of Queens went more Trump in 2020 relative to 2016. Still overwhelmingly Dem areas, but there was a shift. I wonder what accounts for that.

ChiSoxRox · #**342** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 6:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docere

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1333933935525572608

South Shore of Staten Island and Orthodox Brooklyn are deep red.

Williamsburg had the largest shift to Trump?! Mind you, starting from almost 0, so still 70s% for Biden, but surprising to see that 20+ point shift.

iheartthed · #**343** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 6:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Williamsburgh had the largest shift to Trump?! Mind you, starting from almost 0, so still 70s% for Biden, but surprising to see that 20+ point shift.

It was probably driven by Orthodox Jewish voters.

Crawford · #**344** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 6:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Williamsburgh had the largest shift to Trump?! Mind you, starting from almost 0, so still 70s% for Biden, but surprising to see that 20+ point shift.

The ultra-orthodox Satmar Jewish community of South Williamsburg is rapidly expanding, replacing Dem-voting blacks and Latinos. Since they vote as a bloc, and are Trumpist, it isn't surprising that there was a huge shift to the GOP.

The northern reaches of Bed Stuy have basically been subsumed into the Satmar enclave. Anywhere north or east of Pratt Institute, especially north of Myrtle. Ave., is now leaning ultra-orthodox.

Steely Dan · #**345** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 7:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Harris County. I live in Kingwood (part of Houston) where Trump had a ~37% margin of victory. Lot's of old people around here. Boomers and older who've been here since the area was built in the 70's.

for comparison, here's a precinct-level map of cook county, which has a similar population to harris county.

what stands out most is just how much bluer chicago's burbs are for the most part. cook county was +50.4 for biden, while harris was only +13.3 for biden.

and because these two counties make up the lion's share of their respective MSAs in terms of population, it's clear how houston's MSA ended up +1 for biden, while chicago's MSA was +32.

the relative redness of the suburban voters of texas's two big juggernauts is an interesting phenomenon. in most other places around the country, the bigger the MSA, the bluer the burbs tend to be.

Crawford · #**346** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 7:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Those red areas of Brooklyn are the Eastern European (Russian, Ukrainian, etc) neighborhoods (Brighton Beach, Bensonhurst, etc). The areas with large numbers of Orthodox appear to be still blue, albeit light blue.

The most strict orthodox areas seem to be light blue, but that's probably because they're smaller enclaves, and often adjacent to very blue voting blocs (for example, the Crown Heights Lubavitch community, while super-Trumpy, is surrounded by black West Indians and mostly white gentrifiers).

But red-leaning corridors like Ocean Parkway and Avenue U, Kings Highway, Avenue M, are mostly Orthodox Jewish, just not ultras. And they're mixed in with (conservative) former Soviets.

ChiSoxRox · #**347** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 10:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

The ultra-orthodox Satmar Jewish community of South Williamsburg is rapidly expanding, replacing Dem-voting blacks and Latinos. Since they vote as a bloc, and are Trumpist, it isn't surprising that there was a huge shift to the GOP.

The northern reaches of Bed Stuy have basically been subsumed into the Satmar enclave. Anywhere north or east of Pratt Institute, especially north of Myrtle. Ave., is now leaning ultra-orthodox.

Thanks for the info.

Texas metro voting history!

Dallas division
2020 - Biden +7.2%
2016 - Trump +0.4%
2012 - Romney +9.7%
2008 - McCain +5.9%
2004 - Bush +20.5%
2000 - Bush +22.7%
1996 - Dole +10.5%
1992 - Bush +9.2%
1988 - Bush +23.0%

Fort Worth division
2020 - Trump +10.6%
2016 - Trump +18.1%
2012 - Romney +23.1%
2008 - McCain +19.%
2004 - Bush +29.6%
2000 - Bush +26.5%
1996 - Dole +9.9%
1992 - Bush +5.7% (thanks Perot)
1988 - Bush +22.3%

Dallas Fort Worth
2020 - Biden +1.3%
2016 - Trump +6.3%
2012 - Romney +14.3%
2008 - McCain +10.1%
2004 - Bush +23.6%
2000 - Bush +24.1%
1996 - Dole +10.3%
1992 - Bush +7.9%
1988 - Bush +22.7%

Houston
2020 - Biden +1.0%
2016 - Trump +1.0%
2012 - Romney +11.6%
2008 - McCain +8.0%
2004 - Bush +17.4%
2000 - Bush +17.3%
1996 - Dole +6.7%
1992 - Bush +6.2%
1988 - Bush +15.2%

When Carter carried Texas in 1976, he did so by running up the rural/border score. The metro areas went for Ford (+7.0% in DFW and +2.8% in Houston by current MSAs, larger Ford margins for then-MSAs), meaning Biden is the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to carry either the Metroplex or Greater Houston.

San Antonio has Perot almost play spoiler (and went for Carter in '76), and Austin is Austin.

San Antonio
2020 - Biden +3.3%
2016 - Trump +1.1%
2012 - Romney +8.0%
2008 - McCain +5.0%
2004 - Bush +19.3%
2000 - Bush +15.5%
1996 - Dole +1.3%
1992 - Bush +2.5%
1988 - Bush +9.2%

Austin
2020 - Biden +26.8%
2016 - Clinton +19.5%
2012 - Obama +7.1%
2008 - Obama +14.1%
2004 - Bush +0.4%
2000 - Bush +14.7%
1996 - Clinton +4.9%
1992 - Clinton +10.2%
1988 - Dukakis +5.1%

Docere · #**348** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 10:43 PM**

Yeah if an area is say, 50/50 split between Orthodox Jews and "Democratic Brooklyn" it's only going to be lightly red on the map even if virtually all the Orthodox voted for Trump.

I don't think Staten Island Italians voted 90%+ Trump - probably more like 70% - but the white ethnic mostly Italian South Shore would show up redder just because there's no countervailing D demographics.

Steely Dan · #**349** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 11:03 PM**

from blue to bluer to bluest:

my nation (USA): 51.3.0% Biden / 46.9% Trump

my state (IL): 57.5% Biden / 40.5% Trump

my county (Cook): 74.4% Biden / 24.0% Trump

my city (Chicago): 82.5% Biden / 15.8% Trump

my ward (47th): 87.4% Biden / 10.7% Trump

my precinct (40): 90.7% Biden / 8.0% Trump

my 3-flat: 100.0% Biden / 0.0% Trump

Docere · #**350** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 11:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

for comparison, here's a precinct-level map of cook county, which has a similar population to harris county.

I assume the NW Cook County red blob is McMansion-y sprawl and the other two are sort of WWC/white ethnic areas?

Steely Dan · #**351** Posted **Dec 2, 2020, 11:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docere

I assume the NW Cook County red blob is McMansion-y sprawl and the other two are sort of WWC/white ethnic areas?

more than just that, it's "horse country" out there in Barrington: rich people on 5-10 acre lots who literally own horses and ride around on them on saturday afternoons.

here's the map with my notes added:

craigs · #**352** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 1:11 AM**

Do the NYC maps include the state's release of mail-in ballot totals?

eschaton · #**353** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 1:57 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

more than just that, it's "horse country" out there in Barrington: rich people on 5-10 acre lots who literally own horses and ride around on them on saturday afternoons.

here's the map with my notes added:

check for double click

Trump won Canaryville?

Steely Dan · #**354** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 2:45 AM**

^ yeah, it's weird right?

my little joke about "daley descendants" aside, i was under the impression that canaryville's days as a bastion of insular, hard-nosed irish gangs were long in its rearview mirror.

i though the neighborhood was mostly mexican these days, but it apparently went for trump by ~+10.

eschaton · #**355** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 4:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ yeah, it's weird right?

my little joke about "daley descendants" aside, i was under the impression that canaryville's days as a bastion of insular, hard-nosed irish gangs were long in its rearview mirror.

i though the neighborhood was mostly mexican these days, but it apparently went for trump by ~+10.

Looking on Justice Map, it's still a pretty heavily white community. Basically the only white neighborhood in that part of Chicago, minus some portions of Bridgeport that are more or less adjacent.

SIGSEGV · #**356** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 5:31 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

from blue to bluer to bluest:

my nation (USA): 51.3.0% Biden / 46.9% Trump

my state (IL): 57.5% Biden / 40.5% Trump

my county (Cook): 74.4% Biden / 24.0% Trump

my city (Chicago): 82.5% Biden / 15.8% Trump

my ward (47th): 87.4% Biden / 10.7% Trump

my precinct (40): 90.7% Biden / 8.0% Trump

My new precinct (16% Trump) is much Trumpier than my last one (11% Trump)

.

Quote:

my 3-flat: 100.0% Biden / 0.0% Trump

Only 100%? I see you did not partake in the fine Chicago tradition

Centropolis · #**357** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 2:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

more than just that, it's "horse country" out there in Barrington: rich people on 5-10 acre lots who literally own horses and ride around on them on saturday afternoons.

here's the map with my notes added:

ha, nice job. had a chuckle at bridgeport, it never fails to surprise me at how hard its holding on to being “old school.”

Centropolis · #**358** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 2:37 PM**

wait is that little reddish blip north of canaryville armour square? surely not chinatown, lol.

Crawford · #**359** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 3:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centropolis

wait is that little reddish blip north of canaryville armour square? surely not chinatown, lol.

I think that's Bridgeport.

That whole SW corridor, near the orange line, has a lingering white ethnic feel. It seems more Chinese, and then more Mexican further out, but there are still some whites hanging on, at least along the Archer corridor. Old man bars and the like.

eschaton · #**360** Posted **Dec 3, 2020, 3:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

I think that's Bridgeport.

That whole SW corridor, near the orange line, has a lingering white ethnic feel. It seems more Chinese, and then more Mexican further out, but there are still some whites hanging on, at least along the Archer corridor. Old man bars and the like.

The largest still white parts of Bridgeport are south of W 33rd and east of S Halstead.

The red blob though seems to be a bit to the east and north of here, where there's another little nexus of mostly white blocks directly north of Armour Square.