Metro Detroit has a small growth spurt, census finds (2012-2013)

[LMich]

It's looking like by the July 1, 2012 estimate that the collar counties might start growing fast enough, again, to offset the losses in Wayne and post a net gain for the region. I'm also glad that the growth after the recession is now seems to be concentrating itself back into urban counties as opposed to the exurbs.

Southeast Michigan's population loss eases

By Mike Wilkinson | Detroit News

April 5, 2012

New census estimates show surprising population gains in Oakland and Washtenaw counties and demographers say an improving economy helped to substantially slow the flood of people out of southeast Michigan.

The latest estimates, released Thursday, show a gain of nearly 7,500 people in Oakland County, the largest annual increase since 1997, as unemployment fell and fewer people had to leave to find work. Washtenaw County added 2,700 people, the largest percentage increase in the state after Kent County in west Michigan.

However, the numbers also revealed a loss of 13,150 people in Wayne County, the highest drop of any county in the country with more than 100,000 people.

...

Although the data are only for counties, national and local experts say they confirm a trend first seen in the last half of the 2000s: slower growth in formerly booming exurban counties like Livingston, with more urban counties doing better.

In Michigan, Oakland, Kent and Ingham counties all posted better gains than their exurban neighbors, state demographer Ken Darga said.

...

As for the actual MSA (which differs from definition of the "region"), the loss over the period was -4,890 (-0.1%). Of other metropolitan areas over 1 million that lost population, Metro Detroit is grouped along with Buffalo and Providence, which each loss 0.1%, too. Metro Cleveland had the biggest contraction of 0.3% over the period.

On the state as a whole between this period, the loss was statistically negligible: -956.

[LMich]

The Data Driven Detroit blog has some interesting stats on immigration to Metro Detroit:

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has just released their 2011 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. The number of persons obtaining legal permanent resident status in Michigan, 18,347, was down slightly from 2010 but consistent with the last five years



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The trend was similar for the Detroit-Warren-Livonia MSA, the only Michigan metro covered by DHS. Detroit has consistently been identified as the region of residence by about two-thirds of all new Michigan immigrants.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

While India had topped all other countries in supplying immigrants to southeast Michigan through 2010, the large flow of refugees from Iraq over the last three years vaulted it into first place by 2011. During fiscal year 2011, Iraqi immigrants outnumbered those from India by almost 2,000. Metropolitan Detroit was the destination for 14.7 percent of the nation’s Iraqi immigrants and only 1.7 percent of immigrants from India. Metro Detroit’s highest shares went to Lebanon (19.7%), Yemen (17.0%), Montenegro (14.7%) and Albania (13.6%).



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I was kind of surprised to see the Iraqi immigrant numbers, as I'd have thought it'd have actually slowed down, but it's accelerating. It's also good to see the overall numbers for the state and metro area holding fairly steady.

[hudkina]

I work with a person from every one of those countries except the Phillipines and Pakistan. BTW, virtually all of the net loss from Wayne County comes from Detroit, Highland Park, and Hamtramck. The county excluding those three cities saw a net gain between 2000 and 2010.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by hudkina

BTW, virtually all of the net loss from Wayne County comes from Detroit, Highland Park, and Hamtramck. The county excluding those three cities saw a net gain between 2000 and 2010.

Why is that even relevant?

[hudkina]

How isn't it?

[uaarkson]

Seriously.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by hudkina

How isn't it?

Because Detroit is not in a vacuum. If 10,000 people left Wayne County then it doesn't make much difference where they left from. The point is they left Wayne County. Just because there wasn't a net decline in suburban Wayne County does not mean all is well. It also doesn't even mean that no one in those communities moved out of Wayne County -- very well could be that exodus from suburban Wayne County made homes cheap enough to entice former residents of Detroit, HP, Hamtramck to move.

All of this nitpicking over which municipality lost population really misses the big point: your regional population is contracting.

[hudkina]

But it's not. The article was pointing out that the growth in the suburbs (including suburban Wayne County) is beginning to offset the loss in the city.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by hudkina

But it's not. The article was pointing out that the growth in the suburbs (including suburban Wayne County) is beginning to offset the loss in the city.

Growth in the suburbs is not offsetting losses in the city. Growth in the suburbs is occurring because of losses in the city. Zero sum.

[hudkina]

It's not zero-sum when the suburbs are again growing faster than the city is shrinking as was happening in the boom-years of the 50's and 60's and again the 90's and early 00's. Yes, lots of the growth in the suburbs occurs when residents of the city move to the suburbs, but I would bet the largest share comes from natural growth and international migration.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by hudkina

It's not zero-sum when the suburbs are again growing faster than the city is shrinking as was happening in the boom-years of the 50's and 60's and again the 90's and early 00's. Yes, lots of the growth in the suburbs occurs when residents of the city move to the suburbs, but I would bet the largest share comes from natural growth and international migration.

Only twice in the past half century has suburban Detroit's population increased by more than Detroit's population declined:

Detroit loss/Suburban gain per decade
1960 - 1970: (156,081)/634,376
1970 - 1980: (310,695)/207,576
1980 - 1990: (175,394)/54,265
1990 - 2000: (76,704)/251,601
2000 - 2010: (237,493)/92,192

Total: (965,367)/1,240,010

Take whatever lesson you want to take but facts are facts. Detroit has been has been nearly the sole source of population growth to suburban Detroit. Suburbs themselves are not a driver of population growth.

[hudkina]

You can account for two points in Metro Detroit's history where loss in the city overtook growth in the suburbs. The economic turmoil of the late 70's and the economic turmoil of the late 00's. Every other period from the 50's through the late 70's and from the early-80's through the mid 00's saw the suburbs gaining faster than the city was shrinking. The problem is that the economic turmoil of the late 70's/early 80's affected two Census counts, while the economic turmoil of the late 00's is still so fresh in our minds.

[Docta_Love]

Chaldean foundation to offer housing, loans to meet growth
Crain's Detroit Business
By: Sherri Welch
Jan 27th

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article...to-meet-growth

When the Southfield-based Chaldean Community Foundation opened its second location in Sterling Heights in 2011, it expected to serve about 400 people a year. But last year, 9,500 Chaldean refugees who had fled religious persecution in their native Iraq showed up at the office, seeking immigration aid or help to speak English or find a job, car or health care.

................................................................

Now the foundation is looking to build a home away from home for the refugees, in the form of new housing in the West Bloomfield Township area.
"We're looking at developing community," Manna said. A lot of the refugees are living in crowded apartments, some of them subpar, in the Sterling Heights area, he said. We know we could make an impact by helping them find long-term housing ... it's part of our strategic plan to get something announced by Sept. 30," Manna said.

................................................................

About 8,000 to 10,000 Chaldean refugees have come to metro Detroit since 2005, Manna said, increasing the number living in the region to about 121,000 by 2008.

This is an interesting article i came across on Crain's which discusses the increasing number of Chaldean immigrants coming to Metro Detroit and how the already established community helping them get settled in. I'm happy to see that increasing numbers of Chaldean's coming to the area, the community as a whole has been a very positive force in the metro area as many of them become successful small business owners. The number of migrants last year are high although it doesn't surprise me that about as many came here last year as did from 2005 - 2008. Although the war has ended now that American troops have withdrawn, the Iraqi don't exactly have the best track record protecting minorities.

[LMich]

It's official, Metro Detroit posts a modest net gain for the 2011-2012 period:

Metro Detroit has a small growth spurt, census finds

Kristi Tanner | Detroit Free Press

March 14, 2013

Despite a marginal population increase of 0.1% -- an estimated 4,094 people -- metro Detroit continues to drop in rank among the nation's most populous areas.

The region dropped from the 13th to 14th in population rankings from 2011 and 2012, according to census data released today. In 2010, metro Detroit ranked 12th. Phoenix's metro area, with an estimated 4,329,534 residents, surpassed metro Detroit, which now stands at 4,292,060. New York, Los Angeles and Chicago continue to have the largest metropolitan areas with population sizes of 19.8 million, 13 million and 9.5 million, respectively.

...

Among counties in metro Detroit, Wayne lost 9,424 residents, a decline of .5%. Oakland and Macomb counties saw increases of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

...

Growth has picked up in Oakland and Macomb, and Wayne's loss continues to slow.

2010: 4,296,250
2012: 4,292,060

-4,190 (-0.97%)

[LMich]

The sub-county estimates were released, today, the first halfway reliable data for sub-county entities since the 2010 Census, since the 2011 sub-county estimates were compiled using a very rudimentary formula while they were reformulating how they did estimates.

Many Michigan communities show modest losses in new U.S. census

By By Ann Zaniewski and Kristi Tanner | Detroit Free Press

May 23, 2013

Detroit’s population hovered just above 700,000 last year as the city lost more residents between 2011 and 2012 — but the decline wasn’t as steep as seen in previous years, according to new data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Across Michigan, approximately two out of three communities lost residents during the same time frame, but the state’s overall population grew slightly, the data show. Most declines were modest in size, with the average community losing 0.2% in population.

...

Detroit, the state’s largest city, dropped 0.67% — or by 4,726 people — from a 2011 estimate of 706,201 residents to a 2012 estimate of 701,475.

Kurt Metzger, director of Data Driven Detroit, said both Detroit and Highland Park experienced a slowing of their population losses, which have plagued both communities in the last 10 to 15 years. He said Detroit’s population decline from 2011 to 2012 was about half the rate of the previous year and one-fifth that of the annual loss during the last decade. Highland Park was estimated to have lost 40 people, or 0.3% of its population.

...

In other metro news, it looks like even the inner-ring in Oakland and Macomb are gaining after having experienced net losses in the last decade:

Meanwhile, both Macomb and Oakland Counties have seen widespread post-2010 population gains, according to Metzger.

“While the outer-ring suburbs, dominated by townships close to major highways, clearly led the charge once again, population gains were seen in all first- and second-tier suburbs, led by Southfield, Royal Oak, Warren, Birmingham, Madison Heights, Pontiac, St. Clair Shores, Rochester Hills, Berkley and Ferndale,” he said.

That the only community they have posting any growth over the 2011-2012 period in Wayne County is Northville makes me think that perhaps they need to even further rework their forumula. Still, I think these are more realistic estimates than we've seen in years, and there is a legitimate and significant slowdown in the exodus out of Detroit, definitely not the 2.5% per year decline we saw last decade.

[LMich]

Looks like Metro Detroit's population increase will continue when we see the county numbers come out in March. And, it looks like we held off North Carolina for one more year. lol

Michigan's population increases for second straight year

By Kristi Tanner | Gannett Michigan

December 30, 2013

Michigan’s population increased marginally for the second year in a row, a promising trend that experts say may mean fewer people are leaving the state to settle elsewhere.

Michigan saw population declines over a seven-year period between 2005 and 2011 before finally seeing a net gain in 2012. The new U.S. Census Bureau data released today show the state’s population rose 0.1% — 13,103 residents — between July 1, 2012 and 2013.

...

It's still very week growth, but it's accelerating, and it was a faster growth than similarly large, industrialized states like PA and Illinois, and not that much off Ohio. What it means is that North Carolina will inevitably overtake us, but the dynamic will be different in that we'll both be growing instead of going in opposite directions as was predicted last decade.

[animatedmartian]

I always like how freeway traffic is the picture used whenever relating to population increase.



Anyway, that's good news. I'm just hoping most of the increase isn't in the exurbs.

[LMich]

Hmmm...the Census shows the modest population bump continuing but slowing very slightly for the 2012-2013 period:

2012: 4,292,832
2013: 4,294,983

+2,150 (+0.05)

From the Census:

2010: 4,296,250
2013: 4,294,983

-1,267 (-0.02%)

Looks like next period will show Metro Detroit finally recovering its loss.

EDIT: I forgot that they'd put in place a temporary formula for the 2011-2012 estimates while they came up with a better one. What seems to have happened is that they've revised Wayne County down by a full percentage point, which seems to line up very closely with SEMCOG's estimates. They are rightfully bringing in Detroit to a more realistic number, which also makes out-state numbers more accurate since population is allocated within a state. Oakland County has added 29,278 residents (+2.4%) since 2010 and Macomb another 13,782 residents (+1.6%). Wayne is down 45,368 residents (-2.5%) over the same period. St. Clair seems to be the only other county in the MSA losing.

[M. Brown]

I'm moving to Metro Detroit in the beginning of June. I got a job at FMC. So you can at least ad 1 more for the 2014 estimates for next year.

[animatedmartian]

http://www.freep.com/interactive/art...b5262d4732966e

2013 subcounty census estimates came out today.

Detroit proper is at 688,701. They also revised the 2012 estimate to 698,582 (previously was 701,475).

The only city in Wayne county to register positive was Northville with 41 additional residents. Highland Park saw the greatest percentage loss at -4.3% and is edging pretty close to falling under 10,000 residents.

In Oakland county, it's the opposite case where only Royal Oak Township lost 5 residents. All other suburbs saw gains. Novi registered the largest numeric change with just over 1,000 residents (percentage-wise that's 1.8%). Lyon Township topped the growth rate with 6% making it the fastest growing city in Michigan for the year.

Macomb county saw all gains. Macomb and Shelby Townships saw over 1,000 with Macomb almost reaching 2,000 new residents. Surprisingly, most inner-ring suburbs managed to get 0.5% or more increases. Mt. Clemons, St. Clair Shores, and Center Line round out the bottom three with 0.4% growth each.


Growth for the most part is still in the same areas as they were pre-recession.; the outer suburbs progressing onward with new sprawl.