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  #221  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 4:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Handro View Post
Not quite, after a 10 day roundtrip from Chicago to Maine and back last month (Chicago-Pittsburgh-West Point, NY-Providence, RI-Bangor-Burlington, VT-Syracuse, NY-Cleveland-Chicago) it was clear when we were in Trump country and when we were not.

On that note, it was extremely interesting to make a trip like that in the final month of a presidential election, especially in 2020. The Trump-Biden signs really highlighted total division between urban/suburban and rural/exurban.
Well yeah, you're gonna see way more Trump signs/flags/other bullshit outside of urban areas. PA and NY, for instance, are full-on Trump circle-jerk rallies outside of cities. For anyone who thinks NY is a "blue" state, I suggest taking a trip along the state highways to dispel any notion of that.

In PA, even just outside Philadelphia, of the yards signs you'll see, it'll likely be majority Trump signs in places like Montgomery and Bucks counties.

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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Over the summer Pennsylvania seemed to be saturated with Trump signs along the I-80 corridor. There were more there than what I saw in northern Ohio or southeast Michigan.
Pennsylvania is major Trump country outside urban areas... even just outside urban areas. Out in the country, it's fucking Trump sign paradise. I just saw it this weekend between Pittsburgh and State College area. The election ain't over there. Nothing but Trump signs and maskless dudes in camo and Trump hats.
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  #222  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 4:31 PM
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i did a road trip from chicago up to eagle river (northwoods wisconsin) in late summer, and while i saw PLENTY of trump signs out in the countryside, there was still a healthy sprinkling biden signs mixed-in as well. maybe a 3-1 ratio.

another indicator of how rural wisconsin, while fully red overall, still kept the margins out in farm country a bit narrower than most other midwest states such that blue cities like madison, milwaukee, lacrosse, beloit/janesville, and eau claire could squeak out a win for biden.

if rural wisconsin was as blood red as rural illinois, trump handily wins wisconsin.


alternatively, i never saw a single trump sign in my chicago neighborhood during the entire election season. the few trump supporters that apparently live here seem to stay awfully closeted, probably out of fear of not putting a target on their homes.
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  #223  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 4:45 PM
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The Midwest pattern that there's more red the further south you go also extends to the Northeast.

PA has 23 counties Trump won with over 70% of the vote.

NY has 1.
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  #224  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 5:02 PM
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Rural PA is more "Appalachian" than rural NYS. Much of PA is culturally like WV and Eastern KY. Upstate NY has lots of rural, deeply conservative areas but not really culturally Appalachian, even in the mountains. Rural NYS is kind of a transition between New England and Appalachia.
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  #225  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 5:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Rural PA is more "Appalachian" than rural NYS. Much of PA is culturally like WV and Eastern KY. Upstate NY has lots of rural, deeply conservative areas but not really culturally Appalachian, even in the mountains. Rural NYS is kind of a transition between New England and Appalachia.
The Southern Tier of NY has Appalachian characteristics, but it's also been historically one of the most right-wing parts of Upstate (aside from the exurban counties east of Buffalo).

Similarly, rural northern PA, although conservative, is not quite as conservative as rural southern PA. Trump got over 80% of the vote in two counties on the MD border for example, but didn't break 80% anywhere bordering New York.
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  #226  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 6:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Rural PA is more "Appalachian" than rural NYS. Much of PA is culturally like WV and Eastern KY. Upstate NY has lots of rural, deeply conservative areas but not really culturally Appalachian, even in the mountains. Rural NYS is kind of a transition between New England and Appalachia.
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The Southern Tier of NY has Appalachian characteristics, but it's also been historically one of the most right-wing parts of Upstate (aside from the exurban counties east of Buffalo).

Similarly, rural northern PA, although conservative, is not quite as conservative as rural southern PA. Trump got over 80% of the vote in two counties on the MD border for example, but didn't break 80% anywhere bordering New York.
I would agree that the southern half of PA is more culturally “Appalachian” than one finds in NY. Though I do not think PA is like most of WV and nor eastern KY. And I don’t find too much difference between PA’s northern tier and NY’s southern tier... i.e., you’re really not going to notice any standout cultural difference between Binghamton, Scranton, Williamsport, Elmira, Bradford, Warren, Jamestown, and Olean. Really, all the way between Buffalo and Binghamton, and between Erie and Scranton, it makes kind of blandly similar parallelogram. But one definitely notices a cultural identity shift basically south of I-80 in PA.

Pennsylvania is really just best described as Pennsylvanian. The Keystone State, made up of both New England and Maryland/Virginia... where the north and south become one. The northern half of PA similar to upstate NY and with northern WV and Maryland similar to Pennsylvania’s southern half.

Last edited by pj3000; Nov 24, 2020 at 7:53 PM.
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  #227  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2020, 6:26 PM
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The Sothern Tier is really the only region in upstate that could be equated to Appalachia.
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  #228  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 12:29 AM
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Re: Madison

It's interesting how far its "reach" is. Not only did Dane County vote D but so did several surrounding rural counties.

Does UW and Madison have that wide of a reach? There can't that many university-affiliated people that far out. Yet perhaps it's just a culturally liberal "Vermont" type atmosphere in the area?
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  #229  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 12:33 AM
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A curiosity I didn't catch before now was that Kansas City (MSA) voted more Democratic than St. Louis! I'd be curious to crunch the MSA numbers for the past handful of cycles and see if St. Louis has been trending redder while Kansas City has been trending bluer.

My impression was that St. Louis was the southwestern most of the deep blue cores, while Kansas City was on the conservative side for a big city. Perhaps St. Louis is just so shrunken it can no longer overwhelm its own suburbs, or maybe St. Louis has more of the deep red Ozark influence than I expected.
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  #230  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 1:59 AM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
My impression was that St. Louis was the southwestern most of the deep blue cores, while Kansas City was on the conservative side for a big city. Perhaps St. Louis is just so shrunken it can no longer overwhelm its own suburbs, or maybe St. Louis has more of the deep red Ozark influence than I expected.
I think this gets to the conflation of Trumpism and conservatism. KC metro is probably more conservative than STL metro, but STL metro appears to be a bit more Trumpist.

Trumpism doesn't align very well with conservatism. There's a high degree of irreligiosity and low levels of educational attainment, among other differences. Upper middle class "soccer mom/golf dad" exurbs are quite conservative, but hostile to Trumpism, while many working class white and Hispanic areas are economically liberal but very amenable to Trumpism.
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  #231  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 2:38 AM
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West Virginia is the heartland of Trumpism. White working class, rural, low educational attainment, culturally conservative.
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  #232  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 2:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Des Moines MSA:
52.13% Biden, 46.06% Trump
Biden +6.07%

Akron MSA:
51.42% Biden, 46.89% Trump
Biden +4.53%

Omaha MSA:
47.92% Biden, 50.59% Trump
Trump +2.67%

Douglas County *almost* manages to cancel off those blood-red Nebraska and Iowa farm counties.

Also Durham-Chapel Hill MSA is impressively blue:
72.97% Biden, 26.07% Trump
Biden +46.90%


But Boulder MSA (Boulder County by itself) is Biden +56.57%! The only counties I've found surpassing that are either reservations or in multi-million MSAs.
Really bizarre to have such a blue MSA in a red state.
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  #233  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 2:53 AM
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And I think Raleigh-Durham is a good example of Trumpism vs. Conservatism.

Raleigh-Durham isn't a place where you'll find lots of raging liberals. Hardly AOC land. It's overwhelmingly characterized by exurban Sunbelt growth, full of highly educated white collar professionals living in anonymous subdivisions. Bernie wouldn't have fared well, at all.

But it's very hostile to Trumpism and populism. Not a place where you'll find lots of left behind/aggrieved types. Its Dem margins are far greater than in more liberal metros. The exurban-bland "Karen" soccer mom in Raleigh who voted Biden gets counted the same as the raging Berkeley, CA leftist who voted Biden.
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  #234  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 3:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
West Virginia is the heartland of Trumpism. White working class, rural, low educational attainment, culturally conservative.
well yes, it (and Ohio) are the heartland of people who are justifiably angry at a political system that for decades ignored manufacturing job losses, outsourcing, and shareholder-uber-alles capitalism.

you might call them leftists, with conservative cultural beliefs. whereas the suburbanites voting for Biden can be thought up as extreme capitalists, who happen to read the NY Times
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  #235  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 3:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
And I think Raleigh-Durham is a good example of Trumpism vs. Conservatism.

Raleigh-Durham isn't a place where you'll find lots of raging liberals. Hardly AOC land. It's overwhelmingly characterized by exurban Sunbelt growth, full of highly educated white collar professionals living in anonymous subdivisions. Bernie wouldn't have fared well, at all.

But it's very hostile to Trumpism and populism. Not a place where you'll find lots of left behind/aggrieved types. Its Dem margins are far greater than in more liberal metros. The exurban-bland "Karen" soccer mom in Raleigh who voted Biden gets counted the same as the raging Berkeley, CA leftist who voted Biden.
While I agree there's a difference between Trumpism and traditional Conservatism, essentially all of the conservative voters shifted, and still voted for Trump, because he had that (R).

Raleigh-Durham is likely a bit more aligned with a Biden than a Bernie than west coast cities, but it's been heavily dem going back beyond the McCain vs Obama years. I'm not sure you can say it's conservative since conservatism now is Trumpism.
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  #236  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 3:18 AM
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Sanders and Trump in different ways had unusual coalitions for American politics and represented a "Europeanization" in some ways. Sanders somewhere between traditional social democracy and the "new left" (green or left of social democracy parties). The Trump coalition looks more like right-nationalist parties and movements like Brexit, which appeal to a lot of disaffected manual workers who are very anti-"cosmoplitan" used to vote for the left.

Paul Krugman remarked that Sanders was offering the model of Denmark, and Trump Hungary. Pretty apt assessment, I think.
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  #237  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 3:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
And I think Raleigh-Durham is a good example of Trumpism vs. Conservatism.

Raleigh-Durham isn't a place where you'll find lots of raging liberals. Hardly AOC land. It's overwhelmingly characterized by exurban Sunbelt growth, full of highly educated white collar professionals living in anonymous subdivisions. Bernie wouldn't have fared well, at all.

But it's very hostile to Trumpism and populism. Not a place where you'll find lots of left behind/aggrieved types. Its Dem margins are far greater than in more liberal metros. The exurban-bland "Karen" soccer mom in Raleigh who voted Biden gets counted the same as the raging Berkeley, CA leftist who voted Biden.
The Triangle is a huge college mecca; Duke, UNC, NC State, etc
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  #238  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 5:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Re: Madison

It's interesting how far its "reach" is. Not only did Dane County vote D but so did several surrounding rural counties.
Yeah, Madison's blue gravity reaches a bit further afield than a more typical college town.

It's 4-county MSA of some 665,000 people was +45.0 for biden.

And it's 6-county CSA of nearly 900,000 people was still a very respectable +36.8 for biden.
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  #239  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 1:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Omaharocks View Post
While I agree there's a difference between Trumpism and traditional Conservatism, essentially all of the conservative voters shifted, and still voted for Trump, because he had that (R).

Raleigh-Durham is likely a bit more aligned with a Biden than a Bernie than west coast cities, but it's been heavily dem going back beyond the McCain vs Obama years. I'm not sure you can say it's conservative since conservatism now is Trumpism.
I still think there's a distinction, even if we agree that Trumpism now = 2020 conservatism.

For example, Bernie would have done well in Youngstown. AOC too. I think both could win Youngstown. Yet Trump won Youngstown fairly easily. Issues like Medicare for all and trade protectionism play well in Youngstown, but poorly in Raleigh. So is Youngstown more "liberal" than Raleigh?
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  #240  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2020, 2:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I still think there's a distinction, even if we agree that Trumpism now = 2020 conservatism.

For example, Bernie would have done well in Youngstown. AOC too. I think both could win Youngstown. Yet Trump won Youngstown fairly easily. Issues like Medicare for all and trade protectionism play well in Youngstown, but poorly in Raleigh. So is Youngstown more "liberal" than Raleigh?
Yeah, this is a good point. I think Bernie would have won most of those long-blue rustbelt areas that flipped for Trump in 2016.
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