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Originally Posted by Docere
Did Obama win Ohio more because he had strong WWC appeal, or because Romney did not have it (too establishmentarian)?
How would a Trump vs. Obama match in 2012 have gone in Ohio?
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I think Romney absolutely was the wrong Republican candidate to win the state. We won't really compare things to 2008, as that was an outlier election that saw a very unpopular incumbent party and a fairly unpopular Republican nominee who didn't have much of a strong base of support.
But in 2012, an election very similar to 2020, Obama went after Romney hard on his association with Bain Capital and definitely hit a populist bent there that almost kind of felt out of step with what his administration really had accomplished (though, Obama also ran on saving the auto industry, which helped significantly in parts of Ohio).
But at the end of the day, Obama didn't do much better than Biden did among white voters in Ohio. Obama lost this group 57-41 in 2012 and Biden lost this group 58-41, so, a one-point difference.
The big difference is that white voters made up more of the electorate in 2020 than they did in 2012 - they were 79% of the electorate in 2012 and 84% in 2020. That's a five-point difference.
So, Obama's winning Ohio was not a direct result of doing better among white voters than Biden did - but driving out Black support. I guess it's entirely possible, against Trump, he replicates those numbers (in 2012, Blacks, made up 15% of the vote, compared to 11% in 2020) - but here's the question: was Black turnout actually down in 2020 compared to 2012 or was it that white turnout was actually up in 2020?
If it's the former, Obama may have just enough of a coalition to win Ohio. If it's the latter, Obama probably loses Ohio in a head-to-head with Trump because it's clear Trump drove up white support in that state.
Based on the fact fewer voters in Cuyahoga County voted in 2020 than 2012, I'd wager Black turnout was down in Ohio - despite likely being up in places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
But there was also less emphasis on Ohio by Biden. He barely campaigned there, where as Obama spent much of the campaign traveling through Ohio in 2012.
Either way, Obama probably does better than Biden, but I don't know if it's enough to flip the state against Trump.
And I think this hits home to why Trump was successful in a lot of these rustbelt states. Unlike Romney and McCain and even Bush, who lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in both his elections (though won Ohio), Trump actively set up an us vs them narrative, using certain groups as scapegoats for white plight. And I think that was very effective. These voters were angry and wanted someone to blame for their lot in life. Trump is the first Republican since Reagan to effectively demagogue in a way that rallied those voters. It's the darkside of populism. It's why, in 1968, George Wallace was, for a spell, so popular.
My life sucks. Why does it suck? It's got to be the fault of the Black woman on welfare, who's taking and taking and taking. Or it's the fault of the Chinese for allowing COVID to happen. Or it's the fault of the illegal immigrant who's taking all our jobs.
It's an effective message when it's not subtle. Republicans in the past, guys like Bush and McCain and Romney, they didn't whip out that bullhorn and openly blame certain segments of the population. They may have used more coded language but it was watered down and it created a watered down response. Trump, though? He basically was telling voters if you elect Democrats, they're going to send poor Black men into the suburbs. If you elect Democrats, they're going to send ANTIFA into the cities to burn 'em down ... and then they'll come for you.
A scared voter is a motivated voter.