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  #81  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 2:23 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Some of it has to do with the way MSAs are put together. Cincinnati's MSA covers significantly more territory than either Columbus' or Cleveland's.

MSA area (sq miles)
Cincinnati- 4,808
Columbus- 3,169
Cleveland- 1,999

By contrast, Cleveland and Columbus add a ton of land when looking at CSAs, while Cincinnati only adds one county to its CSA.

CSA Area (sq miles)
Cincinnati- 5,195
Columbus- 8,466
Cleveland- 6,436

So, Cincinnati has more of its hinterlands included in its MSA definition than the other Cs. It also is historically more of a Republican city, and the collar counties of Butler, Clermont, and Warren are historically very conservative. Hamilton County was 57% for Biden, but that is lower than Franklin/Columbus (65%), Cuyahoga/Cleveland (67%), Allegheny/Pittsburgh (60%), and Marion/Indy (64%). So even the bluest part of the metro is less blue than neighboring, comparable cities.

You can probably look to a number of reasons why this is. One is that Cincinnati was never the union/labor center that Pittsburgh and Cleveland are/were. I know a lot of these blue collar dems have jumped the party ship, and you can certainly see the impact there in Pittsburgh. But Cincinnati largely never had much of this type of Democratic base back in the day. Its (white) labor class has always voted more Republican.

Cincinnati, like Pittsburgh, also has some pretty depressed older industrial cities in its suburban orbit. It's not all sprawl, but rather a fair number of older cities mixed in with the sprawl, and those places have turned very heavily for Trump. Industrial cities like Hamilton and Middletown (Hillbilly Elegy town) are full of white working class people, and are decidedly different demographics than most people think of as "the suburbs". Finally, Cincy has seen I think the second or third lowest levels of Hispanic immigration among major metros. I believe first in that category is Pittsburgh. Seems like the fringe of Appalachia is the biggest factor here, though it's a combination of all of the above.
This is an informative analysis. Displays how rather arbitrary boundary lines on a map can really skew classification and perception.
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  #82  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 2:43 PM
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
This is an informative analysis. Displays how rather arbitrary boundary lines on a map can really skew classification and perception.
Yeah, this type of analysis would be more telling if Urban Areas were used instead of MSAs.

Perhaps that info will be compiled once more fined grained data becomes available.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 18, 2020 at 4:12 PM.
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  #83  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 3:00 PM
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People are always talking about Nashville is this huge progressive/hipster mecca, with a dash of Hollywood. It's a deep red metro. I always got the sense it was extremely right wing overall.

Also, the Dems were a disaster in the rustiest part of the Rust Belt. We know about Youngstown, Akron and Canton. But how could they lose Pittsburgh? That metro is full of eds and meds.

And Cincy was an epic disaster. Wow, that's a conservative metro. The Dems are hopeless in Ohio in the near term, if they barely clear 40% in a major metro.
a “hipster” or countercultural mecca doesn’t necessarily mean that a region is left-wing politically, particularly in the south. i mean look at californias position historically (right wing oil /defense economy)and compare that to the old labor strongholds of the midwest at the same times. it does portend long term trends, though, and in some ways the sunbelt is tracking california’s trajectory.
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  #84  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 3:12 PM
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But metro louisville is more than half in Kentucky and it went ever so slightly blue.


The plot thickens.......
...and lexington has a straight up urban growth boundary. that is to say surprisingly hands-on administration that would never fly in most midwest regions. i believe both lex and louisville have centralized metrogov type governments as well.
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  #85  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 4:13 PM
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Yeah, both Louisville and Lexington merged with Jefferson and Fayette counties. That'd never happen in Cincinnati. I think the amount of townships in Hamilton County is a significant factor for why it'd never happen.
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  #86  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 7:41 PM
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Ohio seems to have become another Missouri.
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  #87  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 8:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
Yeah, both Louisville and Lexington merged with Jefferson and Fayette counties. That'd never happen in Cincinnati. I think the amount of townships in Hamilton County is a significant factor for why it'd never happen.
Agreed that a county merger would likely never happen in Cincinnati, but it wouldn't just be due to pushback from Republicans or leaders from the smaller municipalities or townships. Such conversations in the past have been pretty quickly shot down among prominent Black leadership in the city, as a county merger would vastly dilute Black influence and leadership in government. The city is roughly 45% black, while the county is only ~25%, so it's probably true. Similar arguments have been made by progressives and urbanists.
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  #88  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 10:36 PM
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Ohio seems to have become another Missouri.
it's trending that way at the moment, but these things can always change.

as discussed earlier in this thread, the larger a metro area is, and the more it dominates its state, the more likely that state was to go blue in this election. not only does a larger metro area simply mean more suburban voters to counterbalance the rural vote, but those large metro area suburban voters also tend to be bluer compared to smaller metros (with some exceptions of course, like the austin vs. dallas/houston inversion in texas).

it's no coincidence that the 3 midwest states with the largest margins for biden are also home to the midwest's 3 largest metro areas: chicagoland, metro detroit, and the twin cities.

the ohio and missouri set-up of 2 or 3 medium-sized major metros seems to produce relatively fewer blue suburbanites to offset the small town/farm vote.

wisconsin is a bit of an outlier here in that it's not dominated by a single large metro, but the 1 - 2 punch of milwaukee and ultra-liberal (by midwest standards) madison was just barely enough to squeak out a very narrow biden win.


Midwest states - biden vs. trump margin:

IL (20 EV): +17.0
MN (10 EV): +7.1
MI (16 EV): +2.8
WI (10 EV): +0.6

OH (18 EV): +8.0
IA (6 EV): +8.3
KS (6 EV): +15.2
MO (10 EV): +15.3
IN (11 EV): +16.1
NE (5 EV): +19.1
SD (3 EV): +26.2
ND (3 EV): +33.3
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 20, 2020 at 8:10 PM.
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  #89  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 12:16 AM
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The Houston area was red until fairly recently; past 10 or so years. The city itself was always blue but suburbs were deep red. Harris county was a GOP stronghold and flipped about 8 years ago. It's a matter of time before the entire area shifts further to the left and impact the entire state. Along with DFW. That's 14 million people out of 30 million.
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  #90  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
The Houston area was red until fairly recently; past 10 or so years. The city itself was always blue but suburbs were deep red. Harris county was a GOP stronghold and flipped about 8 years ago. It's a matter of time before the entire area shifts further to the left and impact the entire state. Along with DFW. That's 14 million people out of 30 million.
Yes, to put some numbers on this shift:

In 1964 LBJ won 238 of Texas' 254 counties. Since LBJ, DFW and Houston were solid red until:

2008: Obama flips Dallas and Harris Counties

2016: Clinton flips Fort Bend

2020: Biden flips Tarrant (as well as Hays and Williamson outside Austin)

Collin County is still red, but on trend to flip next cycle:

Year.........Republican...........................Democratic..................Third parties
2020.........51.6% with 250,194.........47.0% with 227,868.........1.5% with 7,261
2016.........55.2% with 201,014.........38.6% with 140,624.........6.3% with 22,792
2012.........64.9% with 196,888.........33.4% with 101,415.........1.7% with 5,264
2008.........62.2% with 184,897.........36.7% with 109,047.........1.2% with 3,513
2004.........71.2% with 174,435.........28.1% with 68,935...........0.7% with 1,784
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Last edited by ChiSoxRox; Nov 19, 2020 at 12:44 AM. Reason: table quick formatting
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  #91  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 3:16 AM
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Texas surprised me a bit this year, when the numbers first started pouring in and Texas was blue for a solid 2 hours, I didn't know how to take it, but then I realized soooo many Californians are moving to Nevada, Arizona, Texas and Georgia. AKA a lot of Democrats/liberals are moving to historically conservative states and turning a lot of them purple. The next election will be interesting. Republicans will need a new game plan soon because losing Texas AND Arizona AND Georgia in the future will make winning the white house very hard. Flip Flopping Florida is the wild step child that Republicans will be forced to hold on to lol. Republicans will be forced to focus their money and attention on the sunbelt states they once had in the bag, while democrats can pump even more money into the mid west. 2024 will be very interesting.
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  #92  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 3:23 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
It's a matter of time before the entire area shifts further to the left and impact the entire state. Along with DFW. That's 14 million people out of 30 million.


Yeah, the decades long trend in texas certainly looks good for the democrats. As I posted earlier the thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post

What I find most curious about dallas and houston is how conservative they still are relative to the other largest metros (4M+). Only phoenix is Iower in that group.

They only had biden margins of +1.20 and +0.84. you move those up to a more average +15 - 30, and texas easily goes blue.
If metro dallas and houston ever start politically behaving like the rest of America's alpha metros, texas is done for as a red stronghold.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 19, 2020 at 5:56 AM.
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  #93  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 3:27 AM
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Yeah, there's definitely potential in Texas for a D breakthrough - as was evident with Beto and a pretty respectable result this year. It voted to the left of Ohio. Texas no longer being rock-solid would be devastating to Republicans.
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  #94  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 4:06 AM
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Originally Posted by caligrad View Post
Texas surprised me a bit this year, when the numbers first started pouring in and Texas was blue for a solid 2 hours, I didn't know how to take it, but then I realized soooo many Californians are moving to Nevada, Arizona, Texas and Georgia. AKA a lot of Democrats/liberals are moving to historically conservative states and turning a lot of them purple. The next election will be interesting. Republicans will need a new game plan soon because losing Texas AND Arizona AND Georgia in the future will make winning the white house very hard. Flip Flopping Florida is the wild step child that Republicans will be forced to hold on to lol. Republicans will be forced to focus their money and attention on the sunbelt states they once had in the bag, while democrats can pump even more money into the mid west. 2024 will be very interesting.
Florida has the opposite effect happening. All the conservative midwest retirees moving to SW Florida and the Villages.
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  #95  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 4:44 AM
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Originally Posted by caligrad View Post
Texas surprised me a bit this year, when the numbers first started pouring in and Texas was blue for a solid 2 hours, I didn't know how to take it, but then I realized soooo many Californians are moving to Nevada, Arizona, Texas and Georgia. AKA a lot of Democrats/liberals are moving to historically conservative states and turning a lot of them purple.
I think Californians have relatively little to do with it. There aren't that many here and a lot of those who did come here did so as a rejection of California. Joe Rogan is a classic example. I can see them shifting less populated states like AZ and NV but Texas is huge. I've read it's more native Texans that shifted the state more to the center; younger/ more diverse/ educated while the white/ Christian/ conservative stronghold is ageing out.
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  #96  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 8:43 AM
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I think Californians have relatively little to do with it. There aren't that many here and a lot of those who did come here did so as a rejection of California. Joe Rogan is a classic example. I can see them shifting less populated states like AZ and NV but Texas is huge. I've read it's more native Texans that shifted the state more to the center; younger/ more diverse/ educated while the white/ Christian/ conservative stronghold is ageing out.
Same with Georgia. I think it was more of people being activated to participate than newcomers (especially the minimal from California).
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  #97  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 12:03 PM
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Are you folks being serious ? Texas Hispanic mens vote percentage for trump were exactly the same as those of white men

The demographic wave to democrats thesis is busted .
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  #98  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Are you folks being serious ? Texas Hispanic mens vote percentage for trump were exactly the same as those of white men

The demographic wave to democrats thesis is busted .
Democrats have been fantasizing about Texas for two decades now.

Look at the Rio Granda Valley, your lock on hispanics is like with black people, you'll have to actually earn votes there.
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  #99  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 1:32 PM
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Are you folks being serious ? Texas Hispanic mens vote percentage for trump were exactly the same as those of white men

The demographic wave to democrats thesis is busted .
I wasn't talking about any kind of racial/ethnic demographic determinism, but rather the urban/rural political divide.

The dallas and houston MSAs are a lot more conservative than their peers around the nation.

IF they were to ever politically behave like the other top 10 metros such as DC, LA, boston, chicago, philly, seattle, NYC, atlanta, etc., then texas would go blue.

That's just a mathematical fact, but it's one that is completely dependent on a very big hypothetical "IF".

however, the trends in metro dallas and houston do show them getting bluer over time, but who knows, there might be a ceiling on those trends that forever holds them back from going heavily blue like the other largest metro areas in the nation.

So yes, I was being serious, but I wasn't saying what you thought I was saying. I was just talking hypothetical math.

Absolutely none of this is a forgone conclusion.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 19, 2020 at 3:09 PM.
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  #100  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2020, 2:10 PM
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I'm extremely skeptical that Hispanic males in TX voted the same as white males in TX.

That would mean basically 100% of Hispanic females in TX voted Biden, because the share of white Texans who voted Trump is nearly twice the share of Hispanic Texans who voted Trump. Hispanic TX females would be more Dem than basically any demographic in America.
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