How do you see Detroit in 20 years? - Page 3

iheartthed · #41 Posted **Mar 8, 2019, 9:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eschaton

I agree that due to the metro dynamics of Detroit white urban pioneers probably have a lot higher "black tolerance" than the national average. At the same time, the majority of 80%+ black neighborhoods aren't going to gentrify, or will do so very, very slowly. And many of the remaining semi-integrated parts of Detroit are fringe areas (East Warren, Warrendale, Park-Rouge, etc) which likely have limited interest to gentrifiers.

Your metric is probably more correlation than causation. There are plenty of examples of black neighborhoods being radically gentrified.

Quote:

Originally Posted by eschaton

And as I noted, there are options if you look outside of city limits. What about Dearborn, Hamtramck, Ferndale, Hazel Park, etc? There's plenty of solid housing stock near the business districts in the range of $100,000-$200,000 - which by national standards is very affordable. And considering that Detroit both lacks a significant downtown job concentration as well as a significant transit network - why bother locating close to the core versus a walkable node further out? You might have to commute to a job in the suburbs anyway.

Job sprawl is the reason why Detroit hasn't already had the wildfire gentrification that has happened in other cities. The difference is that high paying jobs are coalescing in the core of the city now. The past decade has seen the most meaningful shift of high income jobs back into central Detroit that has happened in 70 years.

montréaliste · #42 Posted **Mar 8, 2019, 10:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is the issue. Metro Detroit has a huge, affordable, pre-sprawl fabric, with dozens of walkable, decent suburban town centers. Not really urban fabric, but massive pre-1960's fabric, moreso than all but three or four North American metros.

You can live in, say Clawson, MI, 15 miles from downtown, and it doesn't look much different than 5 miles from downtown. They both have that "1950's corner bowling alley/VFW lodge and bungalows for auto workers in a semi urban environment" look.

Yes well, that is because 5 miles or less from downtown is penultimately suburban, anyway you look at it.

The pre-sprawl fabric of which you speak was proto-pre-sprawl fabric when it was built for the most part and that doesn't help revive the city as far as bones go. The metro's sidewalks and boulevards just kept getting longer, wider and bleaker.

Steely Dan · #43 Posted **Mar 8, 2019, 10:57 PM**

one thing that might be a big impediment for detroit gentrification spreading out from the core is the relative dearth of intact or even semi-intact functionally urban commercial streets outside of the downtown/midtown core.

in chicago, gentrifcation likes to go after streets like this: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9029...7i16384!8i8192

it's certainly a far cry from perfect from an urbanism standpoint, but there's more than enough to work with there: spruce up some of the older buildings, plug some infill in the holes, and once it's in full swing, replace some of the craptacular post-war single story and auto-centric retail with urban multi-story mixed-use development.

here's the same street from above, but a mile east where the gentrification machine has been going full steam for a decade: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9032...7i16384!8i8192

the problem is that detroit doesn't seem to have many neighborhood commercial corridors like the above left, leaving the city without much low-hanging fruit. detroit's neighborhood commercial streets have been eviscerated for the most part. there will be SO MUCH that will have to be rebuilt, essentially from scratch, to really move the urbanism needle along these types of commercial streets that are vital for true urban rebirth to blossom. that's going to take an awful lot of time and money.

Tiorted9 · #44 Posted **Mar 8, 2019, 11:50 PM**

I believe in 20 years you will see noticeable improvements throughout Detroit, but mostly along the river and up Woodward to Ferndale. The lesser neighborhoods will continue down their path, some will ultimately become green spaces, and Detroit will probably lead the country in % of land for green spaces. Economically the city will be good for mobility tech and financial services (mortgages and alternative investing/VC). I don't think the population will change much, maybe around 600k to 700k, but poverty levels will see improvement. A conflicting opinion I have compared to what I've seen posted is that plenty of neighborhoods today not close to downtown are improving, places such as University District, Bagley, North Rosedale Park, North End, La Salle Gardens, Fitzgerald, Jefferson Chalmers are some that come to mind. Here is Lasalle Gardens last year:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3662...7i16384!8i8192
That area and the park was in despair just 5 years ago.

Geographically Detroit is well positioned, right on the Great Lakes with a major trading partner in view. You would think logistics and import/export will grow, and the new bridge should help.

cabasse · #45 Posted **Mar 8, 2019, 11:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One

I stopped reading here because I know the rest is just gonna be troll nonsense based on this yet again lie that I don't want to waste my life on.

Statler city is more than Half finished, Corktown development is also almost done so is the Corner in Corktown which has street fronting retail. The platform project which also has no parking fronting the street is nearly done as well, that's a reality in 2019 you refuse to accept. This is just what I can think of off the top of my head there are plenty more developments with stoop front units and parking hidden facing the alley.

And City Modern itself is like a full two blocks of good new urbanism with a lot more coming at Brewster Douglas. This is clearly the direction of new development in Detroit and it looks nothing like the sunbelt.

you hate the sunbelt with every fibre of your being, don't you.

~~

on another note, i used to live in a house that's right behind this development, (off watson st) so it's neat as hell to see what's happening here now.

Tiorted9 · #46 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:00 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

one thing that might be a big impediment for detroit gentrification spreading out from the core is the relative dearth of intact or even semi-intact functionally urban commercial streets outside of the downtown/midtown core.

in chicago, gentrifcation likes to go after streets like this: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9029...7i16384!8i8192

it's certainly a far cry from perfect from an urbanism standpoint, but there's more than enough there to work with there: spruce up some of the older buildings, plug some infill in the holes, and once it's in full swing, replace some of the craptacular post-war single story and auto-centric retail with urban multi-story mixed-use development.

here's the same street from above, but a mile east where the gentrification machine has been going full steam for a decade: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9032...7i16384!8i8192

the problem is that detroit doesn't seem to have many neighborhood commercial corridors like the above left, leaving the city without much low-hanging fruit. detroit's neighborhood commercial streets have been eviscerated for the most part. there will be SO MUCH that will have to be rebuilt, essentially from scratch, to really move the urbanism needle along these types of commercial streets that are vital for true urban rebirth to blossom. that's going to take an awful lot of time and money.

Detroit and Chicago are quite different. I have lived in both for 20+ years. Detroit has a dense downtown, but it doesn't extend much beyond that, except in places like Midtown and New Center. I see you're in Chicago??? Detroit neighborhoods have much more in common with say a Sauganash rather than Wicker Park, Old Town or Lincoln Square. Detroit is more comparable to Cleveland or Cincinnati.

Tiorted9 · #47 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:17 AM**

If anyone is interested, here are daily video updates of the Hudson site construction:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-h...s1ZawzA/videos

The North One · #48 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:39 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabasse

you hate the sunbelt with every fibre of your being, don't you.

I do not, I just don't see any similarities between new development in Detroit which is usually quite good and development in Dallas. Where is Dallas building street fronting town homes (essentially modern row homes) with mixed use mid-rises and carriage homes all within the context of historical 1800's victorians? This is just Trollford made up lies. I'm sure I was on acid when I saw statler city and elton park under construction the other day, total imagination.

Crawford · #49 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:58 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One

I do not, I just don't see any similarities between new development in Detroit which is usually quite good and development in Dallas. Where is Dallas building street fronting town homes (essentially modern row homes) with mixed use mid-rises and carriage homes all within the context of historical 1800's victorians?

Except every metro in the U.S. has this. I could post 10 examples in suburban Detroit, and another 10 in Dallas.

Again, anyone with the most minimal knowledge of U.S. development patterns knows that townhouses and infill apartment buildings are the norm, pretty much everywhere.

In suburban Detroit, off the top of my head, the following towns have a walkable "urban" area with street-facing modern rowhomes and infill apartment buildings: Birmingham, Royal Oak, Ferndale, Rochester, Northville, Plymouth, Dearborn. Then there are fully sprawly towns with the same stuff in fake new urbanist "downtowns": Troy, West Bloomfield, Novi, Rochester Hills, Shelby Twp.

pdxtex · #50 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:58 AM**

if detroit is lucky, central woodward will resemble current day saint louis from downtown to central west end. kind of gap tooth urbanism thats still lively in many parts. the first ring neighborhoods are a loss and will continue to go to seed which is good. outer neighborhoods will probably revitalize to some degree like you seen up on livernois near the ferndale border. i think downtown will be bumpin! lots of new housing and new retail. jefferson needs some hipster help but i see that as the next urban frontier they migrate too. population wise, we will continue to see decline as more black folks seek the suburbs. the white population will continue to rise but im not sure how meaningful it will be. i would consider of 40/60 split to be substantial, thats probably more like 100 years. i wish more chain grocery stores would take the market seriously though.

edale · #51 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 1:10 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiorted9

Detroit and Chicago are quite different. I have lived in both for 20+ years. Detroit has a dense downtown, but it doesn't extend much beyond that, except in places like Midtown and New Center. I see you're in Chicago??? Detroit neighborhoods have much more in common with say a Sauganash rather than Wicker Park, Old Town or Lincoln Square. Detroit is more comparable to Cleveland or Cincinnati.

I don't see much in the way of similarities between Cincinnati and Detroit, at all. Cincinnati is a city of very distinct neighborhoods that almost function like their own small towns, with very identifiable business districts and squares. It is a city of hills and valleys, winding streets that follow topography, row houses and 1800s era tenements in the basin/core neighborhoods and detached housing in the outer neighborhoods.

Detroit is a city of huge, wide (overbuilt) boulevards, almost exclusively detached housing and with some impressive multi-family buildings still remaining. As Steely mentioned, it has very little left in the way of intact commercial streets, and certainly doesn't have the strong neighborhood business district focus that Cincy has. It's unrelentingly flat, and it's built on a much larger scale than the older, smaller Cincinnati. I understand the comparison to Cleveland, though. It shares many of these characteristics- from the wide avenues to the detached housing, to the grand scale of their downtown.

edale · #52 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 1:14 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiorted9

I believe in 20 years you will see noticeable improvements throughout Detroit, but mostly along the river and up Woodward to Ferndale. The lesser neighborhoods will continue down their path, some will ultimately become green spaces, and Detroit will probably lead the country in % of land for green spaces. Economically the city will be good for mobility tech and financial services (mortgages and alternative investing/VC). I don't think the population will change much, maybe around 600k to 700k, but poverty levels will see improvement. A conflicting opinion I have compared to what I've seen posted is that plenty of neighborhoods today not close to downtown are improving, places such as University District, Bagley, North Rosedale Park, North End, La Salle Gardens, Fitzgerald, Jefferson Chalmers are some that come to mind. Here is Lasalle Gardens last year:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3662...7i16384!8i8192
That area and the park was in despair just 5 years ago.

Geographically Detroit is well positioned, right on the Great Lakes with a major trading partner in view. You would think logistics and import/export will grow, and the new bridge should help.

That park and the immediate surrounding neighborhood are indeed beautiful! The troubling thing is, it completely falls off just two blocks over from there. Like right back to the urban prairie and whole streets of abandoned housing. It's utterly depressing to see how distressed these neighborhoods are-- again, far worse than I realized, unfortunately. I also wonder where the residents of these neighborhoods shop, as it looks the commercial corridors are all but entirely gone. Rosa Parks Blvd. is so wide, and lined by a bunch of nothing for huge stretches. How do you create a sense of place that people want to invest in and build off of given these conditions?

Tiorted9 · #53 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 1:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by edale

That park and the immediate surrounding neighborhood are indeed beautiful! The troubling thing is, it completely falls off just two blocks over from there. Like right back to the urban prairie and whole streets of abandoned housing. It's utterly depressing to see how distressed these neighborhoods are-- again, far worse than I realized, unfortunately. I also wonder where the residents of these neighborhoods shop, as it looks the commercial corridors are all but entirely gone. Rosa Parks Blvd. is so wide, and lined by a bunch of nothing for huge stretches. How do you create a sense of place that people want to invest in and build off of given these conditions?

You should have seen it 5 or 6 years ago, vast improvements since then. I currently count 6 houses two blocks north of the Lasalle park getting rehabbed. My point is about the improvement, not the current urban livability. It's all relative i suppose

Tiorted9 · #54 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 1:53 AM**

eschaton · #55 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 2:38 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by edale

Detroit is a city of huge, wide (overbuilt) boulevards, almost exclusively detached housing and with some impressive multi-family buildings still remaining. As Steely mentioned, it has very little left in the way of intact commercial streets, and certainly doesn't have the strong neighborhood business district focus that Cincy has. It's unrelentingly flat, and it's built on a much larger scale than the older, smaller Cincinnati. I understand the comparison to Cleveland, though. It shares many of these characteristics- from the wide avenues to the detached housing, to the grand scale of their downtown.

Yeah. Detroit, fundamentally, was a "Great Lakes" vernacular city. This meant that in the 19th century it wasn't big on brick and rowhomes, and (due to the Yankee background of the first settlers) instead houses were wood framed, detached, and set relatively far back from the street - and each other - right from the start, giving things more of a "proto-suburban" feel well before suburbia. Look at intact neighborhoods in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Milwaukee and you can see how old Detroit was built.

Unfortunately, wood housing falls apart when abandoned really really quickly. A couple years with a roof that's shot and it's a teardown due to water damage, unlike brick homes, which (if they were recently pointed) can sometimes sit abandoned for decades and be restored.

eschaton · #56 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 2:40 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiorted9

These are all suburban-style homes. Not that they aren't nice, but that's not something that will appeal to "urbanists" - particularly if the area isn't walkable.

chris08876 · #57 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 2:45 AM**

The job losses within the automotive industry could be alarming for the region.

pdxtex · #58 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 2:48 AM**

those are some nice homes. redfin is definitely a useful tool. set the filter to a minimum of 150k. those are the nice detroit neighborhoods. maybe even 125k if you were feeling adventurous.

Crawford · #59 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 12:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiorted9

Those are homes from 8 or 9 different neighborhoods in the city. A lot of those homes were left for dead 10 years ago. Detroit's rebound isn't just about it's downtown or midtown areas

But 10 years ago the auto industry was in near-collapse. If you go back 20 years, these homes were more valuable than today, and no one looks back at the turn of the millennium-era Detroit as some golden age.

The issue is that the region is totally tied to the auto industry, and the auto industry has had record profits for something like 7 years straight, so yeah, the entire region is outperforming relative to the rest of the Rustbelt. Not just downtown, but sprawl cornfields 40 miles out, which are filling up with thousands of 500k-600k homes.

No one wants to talk about it, but for every condo built in Detroit, there are 50 SFH being built on the exurban fringe. The sprawl engine is firing on all cylinders. And when the auto industry sinks (and it always does, every 10-15 years or so), all the growth will stop.

the urban politician · #60 Posted **Mar 9, 2019, 2:27 PM**

I would like to quote Winston Churchill on Detroit’s slow revitalization:

This is not the end.
This is not even the beginning of the end.
This is just the end of the beginning.