How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City?

[10023]

Re: London

It’s amazing to me that the UK won’t be fully open until late June, when over 40% of the adult population is now vaccinated (and rising fast) and infections and deaths have dropped precipitously.

According to NHS England (as reported by the BBC), between December 31 and March 5 there were only 6 deaths from Covid of people without known underlying health conditions. There were a total of 185 deaths of people who tested positive for Covid, but that can mean a terminal cancer patient with some viral RNA fragments in their system.

This is over and they should open up by the end of March.

[tdawg]

Recently vaccinated, I felt brave enough to take a long, freezing bike ride around the island of Manhattan today. Some observations: Areas such as the East Village, and those popular with younger people, looked like they are coming back to life. There were tons of people out and about (in masks), even on a frigid and windy early March Saturday. Other parts of the city, such as the theater district, still feel depressing and dead but that's to be expected with the theaters closed. Even with in-person arts allowed to reopen at 25% capacity on April 1, few producers will reopen their shows since operating at 25% will not cover the costs involved with a Broadway show. I do feel hopeful, though, as I saw more life in the city than I've seen in a while during the pandemic. I believe that by June or July we will begin to see and feel a more familiar NYC.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by 10023

Re: London

It’s amazing to me that the UK won’t be fully open until late June, when over 40% of the adult population is now vaccinated (and rising fast) and infections and deaths have dropped precipitously.

I'm not sure what about this amazes you. 70-85% of the population needs to be vaccinated before you reach herd immunity and you can still pass on the virus if you get the vaccine. This isn't hard to understand.

[10023]

Originally Posted by The North One

I'm not sure what about this amazes you. 70-85% of the population needs to be vaccinated before you reach herd immunity and you can still pass on the virus if you get the vaccine. This isn't hard to understand.

If you vaccinate the old then it doesn’t matter who catches the virus. It makes no sense to lock down so that people don’t get a bad flu. Plus about 20% of the population has had the virus which is effectively the same thing. And that 40% will be 70% long before June anyway.

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by 10023

If you vaccinate the old then it doesn’t matter who catches the virus. It makes no sense to lock down so that people don’t get a bad flu. Plus about 20% of the population has had the virus which is effectively the same thing. And that 40% will be 70% long before June anyway.

Last estimate I heard (today) was 1/3 had already had the virus and some dense places are around 50%.

[jtown,man]

Yep. And enough with the "if you had Covid you can still get it again!"

Yes, but your chances of getting it and needing to be hospitalized is incredibly small. Also, if you had it and were asymptomatic and then get it again, you won't notice you even have it, once again.

We don't need 75% of the population vaccinated, that is fear-mongering. We need the old (who make up something like 15-20% of the US) and people with underlying conditions vaccinated (I don't know this number, but its probably way higher than the old in the country). That is all. Everyone else getting vaccinated after those two groups will just help kill this off, it won't make huge dents in daily deaths.

[SlidellWx]

Those over the age of 70 are pretty much at herd immunity now in Louisiana when factoring both vaccinated and previously infected. 65% of the 70+ population has been vaccinated. The 60-69 age group is also getting closer with a third of that population vaccinated. Hospitalizations are at their lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic in early April 2020.


courtesy nola.com

[Pedestrian]

FYI:

Russian Disinformation Campaign Aims to Undermine Confidence in Pfizer, Other Covid-19 Vaccines, U.S. Officials Say
By Michael R. Gordon and Dustin Volz
March 7, 2021 10:00 am ET

WASHINGTON—Russian intelligence agencies have mounted a campaign to undermine confidence in Pfizer Inc.’s and other Western vaccines, using online publications that in recent months have questioned the vaccines’ development and safety, U.S. officials said.

An official with the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which monitors foreign disinformation efforts, identified four publications that he said have served as fronts for Russian intelligence.

The websites played up the vaccines’ risk of side effects, questioned their efficacy, and said the U.S. had rushed the Pfizer vaccine through the approval process, among other false or misleading claims . . . .

In addition, Russian state media and Russian government Twitter accounts have made overt efforts to raise concerns about the cost and safety of the Pfizer vaccine in what experts outside the U.S. government say is an effort to promote the sale of Russia’s rival Sputnik V vaccine . . . .

The State Department GEC official said that four publications had direct links to Russian intelligence and were used by the Russian government to mislead international opinion on a range of issues.

New Eastern Outlook and Oriental Review, the official said, are directed and controlled by the SVR, or Russia’s foreign intelligence service. They present themselves as academic publications and are aimed at the Middle East, Asia and Africa, offering comment on the U.S.’s role in the world. The State Department said in an August report that New Eastern Outlook was linked to “state-funded institutions” in Russia.

Another publication, News Front, is guided by the FSB, a security service that succeeded the KGB, the official said. It is based in Crimea, produces information in 10 languages, and had nearly nine million page visits between February and April 2020, the official added.

Rebel Inside, the fourth publication, has been controlled by the GRU, which is an intelligence directorate of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff . . . .

In each case, the Russian outlets were repeating actual news reports but overlooking contrary information about the general safety of the vaccine . . . .

A November article in New Eastern Outlook said that the Pfizer vaccine’s use of mRNA gene editing was “radical experimental technology” that lacked “precision” and said it was rushed through the approval process with the help of billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser for the Covid-19 pandemic, both of whom the article accused of “playing fast and loose with human lives in their rush to get these experimental vaccines into our bodies.”

Some New Eastern Outlook articles have been republished by blogs and purported international news sites. One article from January alleged that the U.S. has biological labs around the world that may lead to outbreaks of infectious disease. The article was republished in full or part by websites in Bangladesh, Italy, Spain, France, Iran, Cuba and Sweden, which were reviewed by The Wall Street Journal . . . .

With Russia and China seeking to sell their vaccines abroad, overt efforts to denigrate Pfizer have been well documented. The forthcoming German Marshall Fund report, which was reviewed by the Journal and is to be issued Monday, analyzed more than 35,000 Russian, Chinese and Iranian government and state media tweets on vaccine themes from early November to early February. “Russia provided by far the most negative coverage of Western vaccines.” it states, “with a remarkable 86% of surveyed Russian tweets mentioning Pfizer and 76% mentioning Moderna coded as negative.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian...d=hp_lead_pos1

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by SlidellWx

Those over the age of 70 are pretty much at herd immunity now in Louisiana when factoring both vaccinated and previously infected.

In as much as the older population is not in contact only with others in the same age range, you shouldn't think of the fact that so many of them have been vaccinated as comparable to "herd immunity". Yes, they are protected by their own vaccination from the worst effects of the virus--and the medical system is protected from being overwhelmed by the high rates of serious illness and hospitalization in this age group. But the concept of "heard immunity" means that even the unvaccinated are protected because viral transmission rates have been driven to the negligible. To do that, the entire population needs to become unavailable as viral hosts, not just one segment which is not isolated.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Yep. And enough with the "if you had Covid you can still get it again!"

Yes, but your chances of getting it and needing to be hospitalized is incredibly small. Also, if you had it and were asymptomatic and then get it again, you won't notice you even have it, once again.

We don't need 75% of the population vaccinated, that is fear-mongering. We need the old (who make up something like 15-20% of the US) and people with underlying conditions vaccinated (I don't know this number, but its probably way higher than the old in the country). That is all. Everyone else getting vaccinated after those two groups will just help kill this off, it won't make huge dents in daily deaths.

Well, we certainly didn’t shut down the planet until everybody got their Measles vaccine. Or Smallpox, for that matter.

Covid is a case study in mass fear and hysteria, even with the full acknowledgement that it’s a pandemic that’s far worse than the Flu.

No point in griping about it, though, folks. The cat is way out of the bag, we went a bit nuts during this pandemic and handled it miserably....the creation of the vaccines being the one bright spot.

Being that I:

Never

Ever

Ever

Ever with cherries on top.....

Want to go though this again in my lifetime, my recommendation for the the next pandemic: QUARANTINE! Put those early cases in a building for 20 days, feed them....entertain them....but don’t let them spread it!

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by 10023

Re: London

It’s amazing to me that the UK won’t be fully open until late June, when over 40% of the adult population is now vaccinated (and rising fast) and infections and deaths have dropped precipitously.

According to NHS England (as reported by the BBC), between December 31 and March 5 there were only 6 deaths from Covid of people without known underlying health conditions. There were a total of 185 deaths of people who tested positive for Covid, but that can mean a terminal cancer patient with some viral RNA fragments in their system.

This is over and they should open up by the end of March.

First of all, keep in mind that in the US, and presumably in the UK, 40% of the population have "known underlying health conditions". So to say that most deaths are in that group isn't saying much.

Anyway, this may have something to do with Boris's cautious attitude:

Europe staggers as infectious variants power virus surge
By COLLEEN BARRY
yesterday

MILAN (AP) — The virus swept through a nursery school and an adjacent elementary school in the Milan suburb of Bollate with amazing speed. In a matter of just days, 45 children and 14 staff members had tested positive.

Genetic analysis confirmed what officials already suspected: The highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in England was racing through the community, a densely packed city of nearly 40,000 with a chemical plant and a Pirelli bicycle tire factory a 15-minute drive from the heart of Milan.

. . . virus variants that the World Health Organization says are powering another uptick in infections across Europe. The variants also include versions first identified in South Africa and Brazil.

Europe recorded 1 million new COVID-19 cases last week, an increase of 9% from the previous week and a reversal that ended a six-week decline in new infections, WHO said Thursday.

“The spread of the variants is driving the increase, but not only,” said Dr. Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, citing “also the opening of society, when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner.”

The variant first found in the U.K. is spreading significantly in 27 European countries monitored by WHO and is dominant in at least 10 countries: Britain, Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Israel, Spain and Portugal.

It is up to 50% more transmissible than the virus that surged last spring and again in the fall, making it more adept at thwarting measures that were previously effective, WHO experts warned. Scientists have concluded that it is also more deadly . . . .

The situation is dire in the Czech Republic, which this week registered a record-breaking total of nearly 8,500 patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Poland is opening temporary hospitals and imposing a partial lockdown as the U.K. variant has grown from 10% of all infections in February to 25% now.

Two patients from hard-hit Slovakia were expected to arrive Saturday for treatment in Germany, where authorities said they had offered to take in 10 patients.

Kluge cited Britain’s experience as cause for optimism, noting that widespread restrictions and the introduction of the vaccine have helped tamp down the variants there and in Israel. The vaccine rollout in the European Union, by comparison, is lagging badly, mostly because of supply problems.

In Britain, the emergence of the more transmissible strain sent cases soaring in December and triggered a national lockdown in January. Cases have since plummeted, from about 60,000 a day in early January to about 7,000 a day now.

Still, a study shows the rate of decline slowing, and the British government says it will tread cautiously with plans to ease the lockdown. That process begins Monday with the reopening of schools. Infection rates are highest in people ages 13 to 17, and officials will watch closely to see whether the return to class brings a spike in infections.

. . . the variant first detected in South Africa has emerged as the most prevalent in France’s Moselle region, which borders Germany and Luxembourg. It represents 55% of the virus circulating there.

. . . the South Africa variant is also a concern in a district of Austria that extends from Italy to Germany, with Austrian officials announcing plans to vaccinate most of the 84,000 residents there to curb its spread. Austria is also requiring motorists along the Brenner highway, a major north-south route, to show negative test results.

The South Africa variant, now present in 26 European countries, is a source of particular concern because of doubts over whether the current vaccines are effective enough against it. The Brazilian variant, which appears capable of reinfecting people, has been detected in 15 European countries . . . .

https://apnews.com/article/europe-en...94884a4b8049e4

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Want to go though this again in my lifetime, my recommendation for the the next pandemic: QUARANTINE! Put those early cases in a building for 20 days, feed them....entertain them....but don’t let them spread it!

Clearly the US--and most of the world--needs a more robust public health system controlled at the federal level (so that "Neanderthal" state governments can't thwart the whole thing). We need the ability to quarantine but also stop travel including Americans returning from abroad unless they are willing to be quarantined also for the necessary period. And especially we need a much more robust ability to contact trace. It doesn't do much good to quarantine identified cases if they've already infected people during the disease's incubation period and we don't have the manpower to run down those contacts and their contacts.

[the urban politician]

I’m not a big Government guy, but even I favor Congress passing a pandemic emergency powers law. This law both empowers (and limits) the President to enforce quarantine on US residents in the event of a declared pandemic. I envision travelers from abroad and known cases being subject to such quarantine.

The law would need to be specific about what rights quarantined subjects have during said quarantine. I imagine that this same law should also define limitations as well. For example, what Governors can and can’t do during a pandemic, etc.

I’m sure it would be a pain to draft such legislation and get it approved, but we need some sort of path forward in the event that something like this happens again

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

even I favor Congress passing a pandemic emergency powers law. This law both empowers (and limits) the President to enforce quarantine on US residents in the event of a declared pandemic. I envision travelers from abroad and known cases being subject to such quarantine.

The law would need to be specific about what rights quarantined subjects have during said quarantine. I imagine that this same law should also define limitations as well. For example, what Governors can and can’t do during a pandemic, etc.

I’m sure it would be a pain to draft such legislation and get it approved, but we need some sort of path forward in the event that something like this happens again

Yes but I'm suggesting something like a "National Public Health Guard"--a LARGE cohort of trained contact tracers who could be mobilized quickly to find the contacts of identified cases in a pandemic situation (probably even before it's labeled a "pandemic" because remember that took until March with COVID when we know it got started in December or January if not before) so that they too can be quarantined.

Unless I'm mistaken, we have pretty good quarantine laws, many remaining from the era when tuberculosis was the national scourge, but there's been a reluctance in the modern era to use them. We may need to get over that.

But one caveat: My complaint all through this--voiced any number of times in these threads--has been the attempted (and I say "attempted" because I don't think it's ever worked in the US) quarantine, aka "lockdown", of uninfected and uninfectious persons. Historically and by law, the ability to quarantine has previously been used only against people who were or might be infectious to others, not the "others" to whom they might be infectious.

[homebucket]

Our local areas are at about 21-25% vaccinated (for first dose). Statewide at 18%. Cases are plummeting.

We should be on track for fans in attendance for opening day at Oracle Park!

[Pedestrian]

^^Here's the situation today for the leading states by # of shots given:


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

The US as a whole is doing very well:


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Keep in mind that these are percentages of the TOTAL population but only the ADULT population is eligible for the current vaccines. Roughly 74% pf the US population is over 18 and the vaccine can only go to those over 16 (call that 80% of the population) so maybe 22% of the US population (and maybe 23% of the CA population) that's eligible has gotten at least 1 shot.

For those tracking our progress toward "herd immunity", a rough guess is that 20% of the US population has COVID antibodies from past infection (it was measured at 15% last November). Assuming the same percentage of those people as of the whole population is getting the vaccine (maybe not true--people who know they had COVID may feel less urgency to get the vaccine), you can probably add about 15% to the 22% who've had a shot and say that about 37% of the US adult population now has some immunity to the virus. That's not "herd immunity" levels but it's pretty darned good.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by homebucket

We should be on track for fans in attendance for opening day at Oracle Park!

You can be sure I won't be among them. Just sayin'. Some risks are worth it to me and others aren't.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Our local areas (SF Bay Area) are at about 21-25% vaccinated (for first dose).

So how do we feel about this? Comments (in keeping with the ban on politics in this thread, please address the policy not in terms of political parties or specific politicians)?

Only 2% of people in prioritized ZIP codes live in the Bay Area under California's vaccine equity plan
Joaquin Palomino, Catherine Ho
March 5, 2021
Updated: March 6, 2021 9:42 a.m.

Bay Area residents make up just 2% of the roughly 10 million people living in ZIP codes slated to receive additional coronavirus vaccines under a new state plan announced this week, even though the nine-county region accounts for 20% of the state’s population, according to a Chronicle review of data.

The new strategy will allocate 40% of the state’s vaccine supply to 446 of the lowest-income ZIP codes in California beginning next week. It seeks to make vaccine distribution more equitable across all income levels.

The infection rate for households making less than $40,000 a year is double that of households with an income of $120,000 or more, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office. Meanwhile, the wealthiest people in California are being vaccinated at nearly twice the rate of the state’s most vulnerable residents.

Officials said the plan will not mean other ZIP codes will receive less vaccine than they previously got, but could lead to those areas receiving a smaller increase than they otherwise would have . . . .

Most Bay Area counties — Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Sonoma and Napa — have no ZIP codes included in the state’s vaccine equity effort, despite being home to low-income neighborhoods that have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/ar...a-16004460.php

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I’m not a big Government guy, but even I favor Congress passing a pandemic emergency powers law. This law both empowers (and limits) the President to enforce quarantine on US residents in the event of a declared pandemic. I envision travelers from abroad and known cases being subject to such quarantine.

The law would need to be specific about what rights quarantined subjects have during said quarantine. I imagine that this same law should also define limitations as well. For example, what Governors can and can’t do during a pandemic, etc.

I’m sure it would be a pain to draft such legislation and get it approved, but we need some sort of path forward in the event that something like this happens again

I agree with you 100% on this, tup. Response to a nationwide/worldwide panemic needs to be a FEDERAL, not a STATE responisibility. Enough of 50 different responses to one pandemic. We needed a unified response, unified action, and unfortunately that never happened.

We all see where that got us, now.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

So how do we feel about this? Comments (in keeping with the ban on politics in this thread, please address the policy not in terms of political parties or specific politicians)?


https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/ar...a-16004460.php

I think it makes sense to prioritize vaccinations for the populations that are more vulnerable, like front line workers, elderly, those with chronic conditions, as well as the lower income folks that never had the option to work from home. These are probably the folks that also have multiple generations living within the same household. It's hard not to bring COVID home to the grandparents when they're in the same house.