Quote:
Originally Posted by delts145
There are many reasons that we should never say never about our growing skyline ctobsl. Even to say, "Well, it's not going to happen for another thirty or fifty years, or in our lifetime." There are just 14 new towers you have placed in the the first photo. Big freakin deal!!! Salt Lake City is finally entering a MINDSET of density for its downtown. We will now start to see taller additions, and they're not 30-50 years off. I am convinced that with our new urban-planning Mayor, major light and heavy commuter rail continuing it's buildup in downtown, changing demographics and lifestyle patterns, and a host of other reasons, "we will increasingly begin to see a broad range of people choose to live downtown." More and more, and within shorter intervals, "we will see the announcements of taller towers."
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While I definitely love this type of enthusiasm, 14 towers IS a pretty big deal, especially if we're looking at a 20 year window.
In the past 20 years, Salt Lake's only seen the construction of 4 skyline changing towers: One Utah Center (1991), American Stores Tower (1998), Gateway Tower West (1998) and the Grand America Hotel (2001).
You go back 20 years prior to that, to 1968, and you definitely see a larger growth spurt, but it still isn't nearly that dramatic. From 1968-1988, the following skyline defining towers were constructed:
1. LDS Office Building (1972)
2. Beneficial Life Tower (1976)
3. American Towers North (1982)
4. American Towers South (1982)
5. Eagle Gate Plaza (1986)
So in 40 years, downtown Salt Lake has seen 9 towers rise that had an impact on the skyline. I'm not talking smaller towers like Broadway Centre, Wyndham Hotel or the JC Penney Building, which obviously would make that number bigger.
Now if you look at it, Salt Lake's market actually seems to be cyclic. From the 1940s until the early 1960s, there was not much growth in downtown Salt Lake. Then in the late 60s, you saw the construction of the University Club Building and the Zions Bank Tower. In the 70s, only two towers were constructed and only 3 were constructed in the 1980s, the same number as we saw in the 1990s. That seems to be the trend, 2-3 towers a decade for Salt Lake. And, if you look at the proposals today, we will see only 3 towers either get built this decade or get underway this decade (Grand America in 2001, HP Tower and CC Residential tower this year).
Now obviously Wasatch could begin construction of its tower in the next two years, but I'm going to guess that isn't likely. So, if all goes to plan, for the 5th consecutive decade, we will have, on average, 3 towers developed downtown (60s, 70s, 80s, 90s and now the 00s).
Nothing suggests to me this trend will dramatically shift. So if we base future development on past trends, we should see 3 towers developed next decade and about 3 more developed in the decade after that. Obviously 2 or 3 more towers could be added to that, but even then we're still looking at about only 9 new towers in the next 20 years and probably none at the height shown in the rendering. And that's if the cycle goes from 3 to 4 towers or more a decade.
If I had to predict, I'd say downtown Salt Lake in 20 years has a new tallest at about 550 feet. Along with 3 or 4 400+ foot new towers and maybe 1 more tower breaking 500 feet. That's about 8 new towers from now to 2028 and that includes the two that are under construction right now.
Just my estimate. Take it for what it's worth.