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  #501  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2016, 9:13 PM
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The main pattern for low growth in Germany is the old DDR (except for Berlin) still having a clearly separate development from the rest of Germany.
Looking at just the old BRD the difference between north and south grows far smaller.
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  #502  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2016, 2:53 AM
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Are the low birthrates in Germany primarily caused more by lack of economic oppurtunities in the DDR or well off women putting off kids for a career?
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  #503  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2016, 7:46 AM
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Does Catholicism play a role? The areas with lowest growth rates in the North are Protestant.
It looks like a continuation of the old East Germany vs West Germany
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  #504  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2016, 8:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
Are the low birthrates in Germany primarily caused more by lack of economic oppurtunities in the DDR or well off women putting off kids for a career?
Ironically, fertility rates in the former DDR region is slightly higher than West Germany.
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  #505  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2016, 2:57 PM
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The results from the 2013 French census are out!

Let's recall that the French census is now held every year on a rotating basis over a period of 5 years (8% of the population is visited every year by a census agent in large municipalities, and small municipalities have a traditional census every 5 years, some in year N, other in year N+1, other in year N+2, etc.), and the census is the result of interpolations and complex calculations over the 5-year period (aided by cross-checking of electricity (EDF) subscriptions' registers, tax rolls, and other sources, to make sure no one is missed).

The census figures are made public 3 years after the average census date (in this case Jan. 1, 2013, which results from census campaigns that took place from Jan. 2011 to Feb. 2015).

So. What's the main news from the 2013 census?

Well, the big (and very unexpected) news is... immigration in France is back on the up!! Since 2006, net migration in France was declining year after year, and it was only a matter of time before it would turn negative, with more people leaving France than coming to live in France. I was expecting the worst for 2012 (each yearly census allows to calculate net migration for the previous year), but contrary to all expectations, and despite the fact that 2012 was the year in which François Hollande was elected president and put in place his policy of high taxes which, the media said at the time, supposedly pushed many people to leave France, net migration in fact did not decline but increased, and greatly so, almost doubling in one year!

In 2011, net migration in Metropolitan France (the European part of France) had stood at just +47,426, and in 2012 the French statistical office INSEE was expecting only +45,000, but in fact it turned out net migration was... +90,831! We're now back at the level from before 2007.

This is net migration in Metropolitan France every year since 2006:
2006 : +115,025
2007 : +74,659
2008 : +66,930
2009 : +44,222
2010 : +43,354
2011 : +47,426
2012 : +90,831

Of course it's still a long way before we reach the levels of net migration registered in the UK, Germany, or even Italy, but these figures show that media perception and reality can sometimes be very very different. We'll know in July which foreign nationalities migrated most to France in 2012.

Now the bad news. The net migration for the entire France (defined here as Metropolitan France + the 4 old overseas departments, but excluding Mayotte and the overseas collectivities) was only +72,336 in 2012. This shows that net migration in overseas France is negative. Yet INSEE was expecting much worse. INSEE was expecting only +33,000, and it turned out it was +72,336. It's also much better than the figure registered in 2011 which was only +29,504 (the worst net migration figure for the entire France since 1975 and 1978 when France blocked all immigration due to the oil-shock crisis, before immigration rebounded with family reunification in the 1980s).

So this larger net migration in Metropolitan France in 2012 is due in part to people from overseas France, who have arrived in great numbers in Metropolitan France in 2011 and 2012, but given that the number of arrivals from overseas France is almost unchanged in 2012 compared to 2011, the increase in the net migration of Metropolitan France is almost entirely due to larger arrivals of international migrants, the detail of which we'll have in July (note that if the media were right and many French people indeed left France in 2012, that means the number of foreign immigrants in Metropolitan France must have increased tremendously in 2012 to raise the net migration to +90,831).

INSEE will release in mid-January its population estimates for France as of Jan. 1, 2016, and they should be higher than expected, given that INSEE will probably revise its net migration estimates up now that the 2013 census is out.

I'll post tomorrow the detail of population growth for the main metropolitan areas of France, but here below I'm listing the metro areas which had the highest growth rates that I found in 2012:
- Saint-André (Réunion): +2.62%
- Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni: +2.26%
- Béziers: +2.09%
- Nîmes: +2.04%
- Ajaccio: +1.99%
- Annecy: +1.84%
- Bordeaux: +1.72%
- Montauban: +1.69%
- Montpellier: +1.66%
- Toulouse : +1.63%
- Royan: +1.59%
- Rennes: +1.48%
- Narbonne: +1.45%

Geneva metro area (Swiss & French parts) is not among the top growing metro areas anymore, with "only" +1.30% in 2012, but that's only due to the Swiss part. The French part of the Geneva metro area is still on fire, registering +2.74% population growth in 2012, and now hosting 35% of the Geneva metro area's population. In the Swiss part of the metro area, after boom years in 2008 and 2009 as many financial companies relocated from London to Geneva, the Canton of Geneva experienced a slump in 2011 and 2012 (+0.56% in 2012), but Swiss population figures for 2013 and 2014 are already out, and the Canton of Geneva is apparently back to booming times (+1.69% in 2014), so we should expect the Geneva metro area to top the list again in 2013 and above all 2014 (I would expect +2.0% for the Geneva metro area in 2014).

On a side note, in 2012 my hometown grew by +1.82% (!), which hadn't been seen since...... the arrival of Spanish republican refugees in 1939? Many surprises in these census figures!

Lille is also having positive net migration for the first time in a very long time. At long last a migration rate matching the beauty and vibrancy of the place. Since I'm at it, a few pictures I took there (Lille) on a sunny Saturday afternoon 2 months ago.







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  #506  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2016, 7:11 PM
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...fertility_rate


If you look at the TFR per country. The highest in Europe is France and surprisingly some Scandinavia n countries. The rest of Europe is very low. The question is how much of those births driven by immigrants vs. Natives? Why does Scandinavia have a much higher rate than Germany when they are both the most socially liberal parts of Europe with a large social safety net?
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  #507  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2016, 10:02 PM
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Part of that gap is usually explained, afaik, by the way preschools work and such. Basically: having kids doesn't create the same havoc on a woman's career up here.
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  #508  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2016, 1:31 PM
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As promised, here is the result for the French metropolitan areas from the 2013 census.

The other day I gave the metro areas which grew the most in 2012:
- Saint-André (Réunion): +2.62%
- Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni: +2.26%
- Béziers: +2.09%
- Nîmes: +2.04%
- Ajaccio: +1.99%
- Annecy: +1.84%
- Bordeaux: +1.72%
- Montauban: +1.69%
- Montpellier: +1.66%
- Toulouse : +1.63%
- Royan: +1.59%
- Rennes: +1.48%
- Narbonne: +1.45%

And this is the growth rate for the 25 largest metro areas of France + Geneva in 2012:
- Bordeaux: +1.72%
- Montpellier: +1.66%
- Toulouse: +1.63%
- Rennes: +1.48%
- Geneva (CH + FR): +1.30% (French part: +2.74% ; Swiss part: +0.53%)
- Nantes: +1.24%
- Lyon: +1.07%
- Angers: +0.87%
- Lille: +0.80%
- Dijon: +0.70%
- Tours: +0.68%
- Avignon: +0.67%
- Grenoble: +0.67%
- Clermont-Ferrand: +0.64%
- Strasbourg: +0.60%
- Orléans: +0.56%
- Paris: +0.52%
METROPOLITAN FRANCE: +0.51%
- Saint-Etienne: +0.47%
- Caen: +0.44%
- Marseille: +0.42%
- Rouen: +0.30%
- Toulon: +0.12%
- Metz: +0.05%
- Nice: -0.01%
- Douai-Lens: -0.31%
- Nancy: -0.39%




These were the metro areas which experienced the largest absolute population growth in 2012:
- Paris: +64,008
- Lyon: +23,608
- Toulouse: +20,757
- Bordeaux: +19,904
- Nantes: +11,102
- Geneva (CH + FR): +10,943 (French part: +8,020; Swiss part: +2,923)
- Rennes: +10,208
- Montpellier: +9,445
- Lille: +9,376
- Marseille: +7,207
- Nîmes: +5,299
- Strasbourg: +4,579
- Grenoble: +4,535
- Annecy: +4,062
- Perpignan: +3,899
- Angers: +3,530
- Béziers: +3,462
- Avignon: +3,445
- Tours: +3,280
- Bayonne: +3,084
- Clermont-Ferrand: +3,021

As a result, this was the population of the metro areas on January 1, 2013 (the only change in ranking compared to Jan. 2012 was between Bordeaux and Lille, but Lille here includes only the French part of the metro area):
1- Paris: 12,405,426
2- Lyon: 2,237,676
3- Marseille: 1,734,277
4- Toulouse: 1,291,517
5- Bordeaux: 1,178,335 (+1)
6- Lille: 1,175,828 (-1)
7- Nice: 1,004,826
8- Nantes: 908,815
[Geneva (CH + FR): 855,135]
9- Strasbourg: 773,447
10- Rennes: 700,675
11- Grenoble: 684,398
12- Rouen: 660,256
13- Toulon: 611,978
14- Montpellier: 579,401
15- Douai-Lens: 539,322
16- Avignon: 518,981
17- Saint-Etienne: 515,240
18- Tours: 487,023
19- Clermont-Ferrand: 472,943
20- Nancy: 432,788
21- Orléans: 425,495
22- Angers : 407,295
23- Caen: 405,409
24- Metz: 389,898
25- Dijon: 380,236

Now of course what's perhaps even more interesting is to find out which metro areas attracted the most people, and which metro areas lost people. In order to do that, we have to subtract the natural increase (births minus deaths) from the absolute population growth. That way we get the net migration of each metro area.

I've done these calculations. Here is the net migration of the French metro areas in 2012. Note that it's the sum of both international net migration AND domestic net migration (migration between different parts of France).

Net migration of the metro areas in 2012:
- Bordeaux: +15,193
- Toulouse: +12,312
- Lyon: +6,386
- Geneva (FR + CH): +6,343 (French part: +5,826 ; Swiss part: +517)
- Montpellier: +6,085
- Rennes: +5,478
- Nantes: +5,283
- Nîmes: +4,255
- Perpignan: +3,416
- Béziers: +3,320
- Bayonne: +3,188
- Annecy: +2,940
- Clermont-Ferrand: +1,666
- Tours: +1,550
- Avignon: +1,282
- Dijon: +1,189
- Angers: +1,167
- Strasbourg: +943
- Toulon: +764
- Saint-Etienne: +531
- Grenoble: +506
- Lille: +353
- Caen: +245
- Orléans: -325
- Marseille: -1,006
- Metz: -1,170
- Rouen: -1,282
- Nice: -1,439
- Nancy: -3,108
- Douai-Lens: -3,471
- Paris: -46,551

Here we can see some interesting changes compared to the list of metro areas by absolute population growth. The Bordeaux metro area attracted more people than the Toulouse metro area in 2012. This is the 2nd year in a row that Bordeaux attracts more than Toulouse. Yet because Toulouse has a bigger natural increase than Bordeaux, it manages to have an absolute population growth just ahead of Bordeaux (that's because Bordeaux attracts more retirees than Toulouse, the Bordeaux metro area including the coastline from Lacanau to Cap Ferret, so its population is older and its natural increase only half that of Toulouse).

Among all those metro areas, the one that has the highest rate of natural increase is the Paris metro area. Its rate of natural increase was +0.90% in 2012. That means if the net migration of the Paris metro area was 0 (as many people coming as leaving), it would grow by +0.90%. But then the Paris metro area also has the biggest negative net migration in France, so that it sinks its population growth.

The net migration of the Paris metropolitan area improved in 2012 though. In 2011 it stood at -64,952, whereas in 2012 it stood "only" at -46,551. That's because France attracted more immigrants in 2012 than in previous years, and they settle predominantly in the Paris area.

Geneva is really crazy. The French part alone has a net migration higher than much larger and very attractive metro areas like Rennes or Nantes! (the French part of the Geneva metro area has only 300,000 inh. compared to 909,000 for Nantes for example, and yet a higher net migration)

In the north of France, the big surprise is the Lille metro area: it is for the first time in a long, long time registering positive net migration. In 2012 Lille attracted more people than those who left!

Among all those metro areas, only 2 have more deaths than births: Toulon metro area, where there were 23 more deaths than births in 2012, and Bayonne metro area (which includes the entire French Basque coast to the Spanish border) where there were 104 more deaths than births in 2012. Bayonne manages to offset that by attracting many people (retirees mostly, hence the negative natural increase), but Toulon had a net migration of only +764 in 2012, so that its population was stagnant.

Nice metro area is an interesting case. It still manages to have more births than deaths despite its many retirees (its rate of natural increase was +0.13% in 2012; not much, but positive nonetheless), but it lost population because of negative net migration.

Lille and Douai-Lens are also two very interesting cases. All these past years, they both had negative net migration (except Lille now for the 1st time registered positive net migration), but the rate of natural increase in the Lille metro area is +0.77%, whereas in Douai-Lens it's only +0.33% (despite very high fertility rates in both areas). This suggests that in Lille it's the retirees who left during all these years, leaving only young people and boosting the rate of natural increase, whereas in Douai-Lens it's apparently the young people who left, leaving the retirees (former miners) who sink the rate of natural increase. So two metro areas with negative net migration for decades, but a totally different sort of negative net migration.

These are the French metro areas with the highest rates of natural increase in 2012 (these are, by definition, the youngest and most child-productive French metro areas, those which attract the most young people, and also those which the retirees flee from):
- Paris: +0.90%
- Lyon: +0.78%
- Lille: +0.77%
- Rennes: +0.69%
- Toulouse: +0.66%
- Nantes: +0.65%
- Orléans: +0.64%

And these are the French metro areas (only those that I've checked; there may be other and worse) with the lowest rates of natural increase in 2012 (these are, by definition, the metro areas attracting the most the retirees, or losing the most their young people, with the many old people sinking the natural increase):
- Metz: +0.35%
- Douai-Lens: +0.33%
- Nancy: +0.33%
- Clermont-Ferrand: +0.29%
- Perpignan: +0.16%
- Nice: +0.13%
- La Rochelle: +0.09%
- Béziers: +0.09%
- Toulon: -0.00%
- Bayonne: -0.04%
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Last edited by New Brisavoine; Jan 10, 2016 at 1:49 PM.
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  #509  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2016, 1:46 PM
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Thanks for the stats. Looks like we've got our own so called sun belt around your hometown...

I wish there were more Fr-speaking Swiss anyway. They're still too few to be really influential to France's population proper.
While the more of them we get, the better off.
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  #510  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2016, 10:47 PM
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'Most Swedish emigrants ever in 2011': report

http://www.thelocal.se/20120221/39228
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  #511  
Old Posted Jan 11, 2016, 4:26 PM
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I think what will be interesting is how the refugee issue in Germany and Sweden will change the stats (population, median age, population growth etc) for both current values and future projections.
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  #512  
Old Posted Jan 11, 2016, 11:39 PM
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In Sweden it has already had a crazy impact. Among 18-20 y/o, the male/female ratio is now worse than in... China, if you can believe that! A demographer mentioned that in a French newspaper the other day, and I found that absolutely astounding! Nobody knows what they are going to do with this surplus of immigrant males.
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  #513  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 1:04 AM
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It´s hard to know if this massive immigration will stay for long time, in Germany most of the projections are based on 200000 surplus anually at the highest (only 2014 there was a 550000 surplus) and 1,4 to 1,6 TFR.

In the 60´s there was also massive migration from Turks, following this, many of them returned to Turkey and the ones who stayed brought their wives and childrens, so no reason to panic
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  #514  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 2:48 AM
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^^What's happening now in Germany is of a totally different scale than what happened in the 1960s. 3,000 immigrants/refugees are entering Germany every day even now in the dead of winter.

We're looking at a Germany where in 2 to 3 year time the ethnic Germans will be a minority in the 20 y/o population.

I've never believed in all that bulshit of Eurabia, but what's happening in Germany right now is the closest to Eurabia you can get.

There was an article about it in the New York Times 2 days ago:
Quote:
Germany on the Brink

New York Times
January 9, 2016

[...]

For decades conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic [...] have made important points about the difficulty of assimilation, the threat of radicalization, and the likelihood of Paris-style and Cologne-style violence in European cities.

But they have also trafficked in more apocalyptic predictions — fears of a “Eurabia,” of mass Islamification — that were somewhat harder to credit. Until recently, Europe’s assimilation challenge looked unpleasant but not insurmountable, and the likelihood of Yugoslavian-style balkanization relatively remote.

With the current migration, though, we’re in uncharted territory. The issue isn’t just that immigrants are arriving in the hundreds of thousands rather than the tens of thousands. It’s that a huge proportion of them are teenage and twentysomething men.

In Sweden, for instance, which like Germany has had an open door, 71 percent of all asylum applicants in 2015 were men. Among the mostly-late-teenage category of “unaccompanied minors,” as Valerie Hudson points out in an important essay for Politico,” the ratios were even more skewed: “11.3 boys for every one girl.”

As Hudson notes, these trends have immediate implications for civil order — young men are, well, young men; societies with skewed sex ratios tend to be unstable; and many of these men carry assumptions about women’s roles that are diametrically opposed to the values of contemporary Europe.

[...]

When immigration proceeds at a steady but modest clip, deep change comes slowly, and there’s time for assimilation to do its work. That’s why the Muslim population in Europe has been growing only at one percentage point a decade; it’s why many of the Turkish and North African immigrants who arrived in Germany and France decades ago are reasonably Europeanized today.

But if you add a million (or millions) of people, most of them young men, in one short period, you get a very different kind of shift.

In the German case the important number here isn’t the country’s total population, currently 82 million. It’s the twentysomething population, which was less than 10 million in 2013 (and of course already included many immigrants). In that cohort and every cohort afterward, the current influx could have a transformative effect.


How transformative depends on whether these men eventually find a way to bring brides and families to Europe as well. In terms of immediate civil peace, family formation or unification offers promise, since men with wives and children are less likely to grope revelers or graffiti synagogues or seek the solidarity of radicalism.

But it could also double or treble this migration’s demographic impact, pushing Germany toward a possible future in which half the under-40 population would consist of Middle Eastern and North African immigrants and their children.

If you believe that an aging, secularized, heretofore-mostly-homogeneous society is likely to peacefully absorb a migration of that size and scale of cultural difference, then you have a bright future as a spokesman for the current German government.

You’re also a fool. Such a transformation promises increasing polarization among natives and new arrivals alike. It threatens not just a spike in terrorism but a rebirth of 1930s-style political violence. The still-imaginary France Michel Houellebecq conjured up in his novel “Submission,” in which nativists and Islamists brawl in the streets, would have a very good chance of being realized in the German future.

This need not happen. But prudence requires doing everything possible to prevent it. That means closing Germany’s borders to new arrivals for the time being. It means beginning an orderly deportation process for able-bodied young men. It means giving up the fond illusion that Germany’s past sins can be absolved with a reckless humanitarianism in the present.

It means that Angela Merkel must go — so that her country, and the continent it bestrides, can avoid paying too high a price for her high-minded folly.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/op...rink.html?_r=0
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Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 4:28 AM
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I don´t believe the numbers for 2015 will hold another year, in the medium term, 500 to 600 thousand immigrant surplus yearly at the very most, will be possible, and pure ethnic germans are not majority anymore, we also welcome people from Poland, Italy, Spain, France, Bulgaria, Romania etc. so, current ethnic germans are actually ethnic europeans in some way adapted to german culture, more or less, it´s the same in other western european countries, which by the way had larger muslim communities than Germany until this refugee crisis.



I had read that column in the NY times, it´s only a column which author Ross Douthat belongs to the right spectrum of that newspaper staff, one could also cite Trump or other republican candidates speaking about Germany in their speeches and that would not change anything, the vast majority of the refugees are not criminals, there´s a situation in which german authorities and society will have a big challenge to integrate massive immigration but again, no reason to panic.
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  #516  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 2:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
In Sweden it has already had a crazy impact. Among 18-20 y/o, the male/female ratio is now worse than in... China, if you can believe that! A demographer mentioned that in a French newspaper the other day, and I found that absolutely astounding! Nobody knows what they are going to do with this surplus of immigrant males.
Appalling... Wouldn't migrants import their wives, girlfriends and daughters later on, though? Something like "regroupement familial?" They also say many would be making sure their situations get stable enough to do so.
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  #517  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 7:09 PM
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Appalling... Wouldn't migrants import their wives, girlfriends and daughters later on, though? Something like "regroupement familial?" They also say many would be making sure their situations get stable enough to do so.
Many of them don't due to polygamy is Africa and the Muslim world.
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  #518  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 7:11 PM
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Also on top of the low birthrates and replacement by non Germans many Germans may decide to leave. That article said that's already happening in Sweden. Most are going to neighboring Norway and Denmark but some even The US and Canada.
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Old Posted Jan 12, 2016, 9:00 PM
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panic-mongering, emigration only occurs when there are no jobs, and that´s not happening right now, it would be more difficult for a german to get a job in America or the rest of Europe and the life for an unemployed is even more difficult there
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  #520  
Old Posted Jan 15, 2016, 9:09 PM
big W big W is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: E-Town
Posts: 5,341
I think the fear is over blown. For example Canada takes in 250K immigrants every year and has been doing so since 2000 when before that the numbers were 200K a year and Canada does not really have any issues.

12% of Germany's population is immigrants vs 21% for Canada. Then when you consider of the 12% that are immigrants in Germany many came from other EU countries so the differences are much less vs other countries. In this regard Canada is functioning very well and these immigrant populations are blending into the Canadian Population.
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