Could Austin and San Antonio be the next Dallas-Fort Worth?

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by 10023

I lived in a rowhouse* neighborhood in Chicago. I lived in a rowhouse neighborhood in New York. Most Americans don't and won't.


* not technically rowhouses, but the Chicago version

maybe that's true, but the rowhouse neighborhoods were the first to be rehabbed in st. louis, and the only neighborhood with mass revitalization in north st. louis is the rowhouse neighborhood.

[Paul in S.A TX]

I don't think it will ever be designated an actual CSA for a very long time if ever, but the cities will eventually be one contiguous urbanized area. Like a Wash/Baltimore.
I think the ego's of both cities would prevent that, more so in Austin's case. I say this because, San Antonio is the larger metro and larger city proper, but Austin always seems to be the city listed first when grouped together.

The author also is a bit off on population projection. San Antonio has around 2.3 million currently, and should be closer to about 2.6 million by 2030. San Antonio will grow by more than 100k in 16 years, the city grew by nearly 45k
In one year, when it ranked as the second fastest growing city in the nation.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how the cities will grow together, politically and culturally since they are very different from one another. I see them as complimenting each other and making for one great region.

[novawolverine]

Seems like the cities like San Marcos and New Braunfels would have to grow significantly. The reasons why places like DC and Baltimore merged together and San Francisco and San Jose are so closely connected are because they have so much commercial development outside of the city proper. Ditto for Dallas-Ft. Worth.

When you have Austin suburbs and exurbs that are almost or just as dependent on San Antonio (city or suburbs) economically, and vice versa, than I think merging will happen.

[mhays]

I doubt anyone thinks they're going to attract a majority. But if they're 2% of local housing today (hypothetically) maybe they'll be 5% at some point.

That said, part of the attraction depends on either land/houses being expensive or proximity being important in a high-demand area. There's a big difference between residential land at $1/sf (half acre for $21,780) vs. $10/sf (half acre for $217,800). In the latter case, the market will move toward much smaller lots.

[Keep-SA-Lame]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Call it San Austinio

I'm for it.

[ATXboom]

No doubt the corridor between the 2 will be fully developed with satellite city sprawl by 2050. It would be corridor based along the interstate - not broad in many areas. Not sure if we'd see enough cross commuting patterns to form a csa though. But example businesses such as rack space suggest it as a possibility. They run their own commuter shuttles between Austin and sa offices. High speed rail would definitely open up commuting options. Not sure what role the new tx 130 highway will play other than driving sprawl east of Austin... I think it comes in too east of sa to impact commuting.

The population forecasts are way off... These projections always seem to lag reality. By 2030 sa could approach 3M. Austin metro has doubled population every 20 years for last 120 years... Suggesting some exponential factor. On the low side it would be 2.6m. On the historical longitude trajectory it would be closer to 3.5m. Are demographers somehow penalized if they overshoot? I'm curious how that industry is incentivized lol. You are looking at a region that will approach 6m by 2030. Perhaps 7-10m by 2050 if society doesn't collapse and a water solution is achieved. In their hay day... Cities like Dallas Houston and Detroit boomed much more quickly... With Houston and Dallas still booming. My guess is a mega pipeline will by funded to tap into Louisiana/Mississippi River tributary sources. Billions of dollars similar to the Southern California solution tapping the Colorado.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I've worked in real estate here in Austin for the last 9 months. Whenever I bring up "townhouse" to a potential buyer, I usually get "I don't want to share a wall." Period. And I only ask people about that option if I *think* they might go for it.

If think that response would be more typical if you're dealing mainly with suburbanites. But in the city, there so many condos, townhouses (mid-rise and highrise) being built and having been built recently that there shouldn't be as much of that response. That's what many people want in the city.

I wonder, though, what what sharing walls has to do with the subject of the thread.

[TexasRE]

As interesting as it may seem, I would say, 'no', they won't become the next Dallas-Fort Worth. Both cities are distinctly different, have seperate identities, completely different economies, 2 different airports, businesses in general, just about everything that could be different is between the 2 cities. As fast growing as both beautiful Texas cities are, they'll never become 1 single metropolitan/CSA area. There is 80 miles between the 2 city centers, that's quite a difference. Those cities would have to be like NYC to become one metro. Look at NYC & Philadelphia. It would be similar to those 2 metro areas. Both entirely seperate metros, and they're far more dense and many times the population of San Antonio & Austin. Us Texans I know have big egos, but thinking those 2 cities will become 1 is just a bit too much to believe. Both will continue to grow but not one united area. Love both cities though, who can't love San Antonio?

[lzppjb]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

If think that response would be more typical if you're dealing mainly with suburbanites. But in the city, there so many condos, townhouses (mid-rise and highrise) being built and having been built recently that there shouldn't be as much of that response. That's what many people want in the city.

I wonder, though, what what sharing walls has to do with the subject of the thread.

Well, the conversation turned to rowhouses and whether or not they'll be popular in Texas. jtown was just providing his experience.

[lzppjb]

As for the marriage of Austin and San Antonio, I think there's one giant issue that nobody has mentioned...

Will Austin HS football still be in Region 2 while San Antonio football is in Region 4, or will they all go back together in Region 4 like it used to be?

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

If think that response would be more typical if you're dealing mainly with suburbanites. But in the city, there so many condos, townhouses (mid-rise and highrise) being built and having been built recently that there shouldn't be as much of that response. That's what many people want in the city.

I wonder, though, what what sharing walls has to do with the subject of the thread.

I deal with all types of people, but yes, most are suburbanites by nature. I think people who live in central Austin and see condos going up forget there is another 1 million or more people living in out-right suburbia in the region. That is preferred. Either by money or lifestyle. I live in the burbs for money, but I am sure a lot of people prefer this for one reason or another.

"I wonder, though, what what sharing walls has to do with the subject of the thread" -

You're kidding right? Over 10 posts about townhouses and you ask why I brought that up?

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by Paul in S.A TX

I don't think it will ever be designated an actual CSA for a very long time if ever, but the cities will eventually be one contiguous urbanized area. Like a Wash/Baltimore.
I think the ego's of both cities would prevent that, more so in Austin's case. I say this because, San Antonio is the larger metro and larger city proper, but Austin always seems to be the city listed first when grouped together.

The author also is a bit off on population projection. San Antonio has around 2.3 million currently, and should be closer to about 2.6 million by 2030. San Antonio will grow by more than 100k in 16 years, the city grew by nearly 45k
In one year, when it ranked as the second fastest growing city in the nation.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how the cities will grow together, politically and culturally since they are very different from one another. I see them as complimenting each other and making for one great region.

San Antonio's metro is larger now, but all indicators show that Austin's Metro will surpass San Antonio's. These forecasts have been out for more than a decade and so far Austin's Metro has not only reached the previous forecasts for recent time frames, but has surpassed them. Fact is both Metros will be equal for awhile. Also consider San Antonio has 8 counties, while Austin has 5 and yet we are catching up pretty quickly. There is no county in the San Antonio Metro area yet with a population of Williamson County though I am sure that will change. San Antonio has no Suburb of over 100,000. Austin does, and it won't be much longer before the Austin MSA has another 100K suburb. Again putting specific debates about metro size aside, the metros will be in the same category and will be awhile before one begins to overtake the other.

I saw an article awhile back which forecasts Kyle to become the largest city in Hays County. It also brought up some issues San Marcos and Kyle city leaders have regarding the land where their city limits meet and the type of development that should be there. San Marcos has a strong sense of how they want to grow while Kyle's philosophy is build build build.

I do agree that each Metro will complement the other to create an already vibrant region into a more vibrant one. I also think that the ego's as you put it, are beginning to be less of a factor and in the future, due to the demands of the region, the cities will work together even more than they do now.

I think this is a very exciting time for us, but it is also time to take notice of the warning signs about where we could be headed. Not only with water but with the air we breathe. Im very concerned about the Eagle Ford Shale area and lack of environmental regulation. People that live in and around there are getting sick and that air blows up into both our metro's for most of the year. I have noticed more and more over the past couple of years a orange haze on days that local traffic pollution levels are not high enough to cause. its the pollution from Eagle Ford. It's also no coencodence that my sinus and resperatory functions have deteriorated and it started at the beginning of the Eagle Ford boom and have progressivly gotten worse. I know others that have had the same issue. If we want to have a clean healthy region, we need to change the way Eagle Ford goes about in retriving the oil. There are ways to do it that are better for the environment than what they are doing now. Those oil companies have billions, yet they choose the cheapest and easiest way without regard for the people who live there or the consiquenses of the broader affect on South Central Texas.