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  #461  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 5:34 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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Originally Posted by Miu View Post
TIt should be noted that fertility rates of non-immigrant Canadians or white Americans, for instance, aren't all that much higher than those of Germans (France seems to be an exception in this regard)
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
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  #462  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 7:00 PM
JGreat JGreat is offline
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Those aren't remotely equivalent neighborhoods. Neukölln and Kreuzberg are gentrified inner-city neighborhoods filled with young German professionals. Les Izards and St. Denis are deprived suburban neighborhood filled with immigrants.

If you compare apples to apples (so Kreuzberg to anywhere in East Paris, or Neuperlach (Munich) to St. Denis), you will see they are quite similar. In both Kreuzberg and anywhere in Paris east of the center, you will see former immigrant areas filled with young professionals. Similarly, in Neuperlach and St. Denis you will see poor 90% immigrant areas filled with non-Europeans.
Images from GV are from about 2008 for Germany, Neuperlach seems like a quiet german neighbourhood with the exception of maybe a few suspicious "plattenbau" buildings, streets and buildings are clean and people there seem quiet and what you would expect in "old europe", St Denis images are from 2013, I don´t think you could compare those places . Almost everywhere in St Denis there are women wearing turbans and african descendents, I even saw a beggar laying on a sidewalk, there are garbage bags piled up.
This could have changed a little recently since Germany was taking massive immigration the last few years while France not, and I´m sure Germany has worse looking neighbourhoods, likewise for France.
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  #463  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 7:09 PM
JGreat JGreat is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
We´ll see, if labor force doesn´t grow or shrinks, what is not the case right now, there will be less money for the state, and germans hate to lose money, it could lead to more radical measures to attract even more immigrants and/or help younger people to build a family
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  #464  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 9:29 PM
Miu Miu is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
You are right, I thought the TFR of White Americans was similar to Canadians (the fertility rate of native-born Canadians is 1.5). That being said, the fertility rate of White Americans has been below replacement levels for decades, and White deaths exceeded births in 2013 and 2014.

The rest of your post seems to echo what I wrote.
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  #465  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2015, 9:33 PM
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wow thats a interesting map. I cant believe whats happening to germany, you can really see the old east and west border. Im supprised myself about poland most of the map shows increases but cities showing decreases most rural young people looking for work in other countries.
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  #466  
Old Posted Aug 20, 2015, 8:36 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Refugee numbers in Germany to reach 800,000 in 2015

The German government increased their estimates of how many asylum-seekers will be applying in Germany by the end of this year to up to 800,000, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière said on Wednesday.

source: http://www.thelocal.de


http://www.thelocal.de/20150820/numb...o-reach-750000

If this trends continues, as the german Interior Minister suggested, it would completely reshape german population estimates for the next decades, only the number of refugees for 2015 would compensate for about 4 years of german natural negative population growth
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  #467  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2015, 5:21 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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Originally Posted by laufwerk View Post
If this trends continues, as the german Interior Minister suggested, it would completely reshape german population estimates for the next decades, only the number of refugees for 2015 would compensate for about 4 years of german natural negative population growth
But the vast majority will be sent back from Germany. There's no way in hell Germans are going to accept 800,000 refugees. Half are from Eastern Europe anyways, and all of them will be sent back with expedited processing.

And border controls are probably imminent. Germany (and other Schengen countries) do have the right to border controls under in emergency circumstances.
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  #468  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2015, 11:53 PM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
But the vast majority will be sent back from Germany. There's no way in hell Germans are going to accept 800,000 refugees. Half are from Eastern Europe anyways, and all of them will be sent back with expedited processing.

And border controls are probably imminent. Germany (and other Schengen countries) do have the right to border controls under in emergency circumstances.
Even as the acceptance rate will be about 1/3 to about 1/2 of total, it doesn´t mean all the rest will be "sent back", forced deportation were about 10000 last year with about 200000 new asylum applications, but even if it happened, it would be a record huge amount remaining. Balkan immigrants will be indeed mostly rejected, but given the massive numbers, the government is working on new legislations to allow them legal immigration to look for work in Germany, at least that´s what Merkel said a few weeks ago.

Border controls are, otherwise, not into serios consideration so far, but of course if this grows out of control, and countries like Italy, France and other EU eastern countries keep refusing their duty to help refugees, nothing´s guaranteed, but seriously, I can´t imagine how Germany could turn itself into a big walled castle, control all their borders to 9 countries and let hundreds of thousands camping around its territory

Last edited by laufwerk; Aug 22, 2015 at 12:37 AM.
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