Atlanta 2020 Census

[shivtim]

For what it's worth, the ARC estimates have been much more accurate than the census estimates, because they use richer local datasets. The 2009 census estimate was off by 121,000 compared to the actual 2010 count.

[Julien]

Well we are now 6 months before the 2024 Census MSA (and CSA) estimates are released. Seems we are mostly in agreement that we will make a whopping 2 place jump in the MSA to the #6 largest metro in the US. I suppose it will be almost shocking if we only move past Philly but stay behind DC.

Since we had about 2.2% growth from 20 to 22 what do people think the rate will be this time? I'm feeling optimist that it may be over 2.5% and closer to 3%.

This will likely still leave is at #10 on the CSA but should move up to #9 by 26.

Anyone thinking differently?

[Libertarian]

Yes, but is it a good thing?

[YAY0]

I'll entertain you and say yes. That's a sign of a healthy metro in many different ways. People want to live here. If we were losing population it'd be indicative of large underlying issues.

[bryantm3]

Originally Posted by Libertarian

Yes, but is it a good thing?

No because we don't have a plan. We are just whoring out to whoever has the money without worrying about the enivironment, history, traffic, water, runoff, etc. And meanwhile the income inequality is getting worse; so many working people in poverty here. We are not New York City and we're selling ourselves to be. We're telling people "come here" when we don't have ourselves set up to take on this many people. And people are trashing the place.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

If you look at ARC's data the growth is heavily centered on the city, and even just looking at what is being constructed it is being concentrated in walkable areas within the city too. ARC also notes that COA reached its all time high in multifamily permitting. and 2022-2023 is the record for COA population increase.

Pg 7 of here: https://33n.atlantaregional.com/wp-c...ersion-33N.pdf

[shivtim]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaPeanuts

If you look at ARC's data the growth is heavily centered on the city[/url]

I don't think that's entirely correct. While CoA is growing faster than it has (and a huge shift from the population trends of the 80s and 90s), the vast majority of the growth is still in the suburbs. You can see in the 2020-2023 numbers that only 11.8% of metro population growth was in the city (7553 / 63620). Even in 2022, which has promising numbers, while there were 10,078 multi-family unit permits in the city, there were 15,625 single family home permits outside of the city.

[RocketSurgeon]

Originally Posted by shivtim

I don't think that's entirely correct. While CoA is growing faster than it has (and a huge shift from the population trends of the 80s and 90s), the vast majority of the growth is still in the suburbs. You can see in the 2020-2023 numbers that only 11.8% of metro population growth was in the city (7553 / 63620). Even in 2022, which has promising numbers, while there were 10,078 multi-family unit permits in the city, there were 15,625 single family home permits outside of the city.

The city is growing faster than the rest of the metro. It still only has a small fraction of the total though, so of course the absolute number is low.

[newuserbuckhead]

I've said this to plenty of people but Atlanta doesn't feel as big as what it is. Maybe it's because I've been here too long where Midtown/Downtown don't make me awe struck anymore, but cities like Boston/Seattle/Philly just feel bigger, even if Atlanta Metro is bigger.

It's not just their downtown cores, though those three cities have better cores for sure, but their immediate first ring within a few miles of downtown are significantly more densely populated with houses and businesses.

Even with all of the amazing growth the city has seen since I moved here, and the continued growth, I'm afraid it'll never match other cities without sweeping changes that few are willing to allow. I don't see Homepark being redeveloped en mass, or Ansley Park or Grant Park, etc. Our inner neighborhoods should/could house so many more people than they do, but it likely wont.

The Beltline has been amazing for the city, but at somepoint they're going to run out of industrial land to redevelop. Will the single family neighborhoods let themselves upzone then?

[shivtim]

Originally Posted by RocketSurgeon

The city is growing faster than the rest of the metro. It still only has a small fraction of the total though, so of course the absolute number is low.

Exactly. I was responding to "If you look at ARC's data the growth is heavily centered on the city." It's not, but proportionately Atlanta is growing faster than other areas. The suburbs still have way more growth.

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by newuserbuckhead

I've said this to plenty of people but Atlanta doesn't feel as big as what it is. Maybe it's because I've been here too long where Midtown/Downtown don't make me awe struck anymore, but cities like Boston/Seattle/Philly just feel bigger, even if Atlanta Metro is bigger.

It's not just their downtown cores, though those three cities have better cores for sure, but their immediate first ring within a few miles of downtown are significantly more densely populated with houses and businesses.

Even with all of the amazing growth the city has seen since I moved here, and the continued growth, I'm afraid it'll never match other cities without sweeping changes that few are willing to allow. I don't see Homepark being redeveloped en mass, or Ansley Park or Grant Park, etc. Our inner neighborhoods should/could house so many more people than they do, but it likely wont.

The Beltline has been amazing for the city, but at somepoint they're going to run out of industrial land to redevelop. Will the single family neighborhoods let themselves upzone then?

Considering that the SFH NIMBYs just protested and killed a very modest upzoning effort (which really would have just changed our white-flight-era zoning to be in line with what it actually should be), I wouldn’t hold my breath on any significant zoning change ever getting done.

Mass redevelopment of industrial and low density commercial is all we’ve got. Fortunately, we’ve got a ton of it.

[SteveD]

Originally Posted by Julien

Well we are now 6 months before the 2024 Census MSA (and CSA) estimates are released. Seems we are mostly in agreement that we will make a whopping 2 place jump in the MSA to the #6 largest metro in the US. I suppose it will be almost shocking if we only move past Philly but stay behind DC.

Since we had about 2.2% growth from 20 to 22 what do people think the rate will be this time? I'm feeling optimist that it may be over 2.5% and closer to 3%.

This will likely still leave is at #10 on the CSA but should move up to #9 by 26.

Anyone thinking differently?

I think it will be 6th largest too. Also I don't think it's 6 months. If I remember correctly last year's was delayed because they were either waiting for something from New England or calculating New England somehow slightly differently. I believe the normal schedule is more like April or May for the estimate, which is based on the previous year on July 1.

[Tuckerman]

[QUOTE=newuserbuckhead;10118118]I've said this to plenty of people but Atlanta doesn't feel as big as what it is. Maybe it's because I've been here too long where Midtown/Downtown don't make me awe struck anymore, but cities like Boston/Seattle/Philly just feel bigger, even if Atlanta Metro is bigger.

How "big" a city feels is an interesting concept. Of course the core "political cities" of Boston, Philly and Seattle are all more populous than the city of Atlanta. But one could make the same case that LA doesn't "feel" as big as Chicago.
Part of the answer is the density in the city and the feeling of many pedestrians on the streets. Having lived in Edinburgh, Scotland the feel of the "downtown" is one of packed sidewalks and constant buses and arriving trains, but it is not a metropolis and has far less than a million people in the metro area and Princes Street has probably more street traffic than any American city outside of NYC. In contrast, even our lauded Peachtree St. is a lazy thoroughfare (only exception might be at 14th Street where there is moderate activity).
Obviously a great part of this imagery is due to the fact that cars are not an easy option in these apparently "big" feel cities. In fact, many major cities in Europe simply restrict the use of private cars in the center and on major shopping streets.

I am always reminded of the reported "fact" that the entire center of Florence, It. would fit within the I285 -I75 interchange.

[SteveD]

[QUOTE=Tuckerman;10118242]

Originally Posted by newuserbuckhead

I've said this to plenty of people but Atlanta doesn't feel as big as what it is. Maybe it's because I've been here too long where Midtown/Downtown don't make me awe struck anymore, but cities like Boston/Seattle/Philly just feel bigger, even if Atlanta Metro is bigger.

How "big" a city feels is an interesting concept. Of course the core "political cities" of Boston, Philly and Seattle are all more populous than the city of Atlanta. But one could make the same case that LA doesn't "feel" as big as Chicago.
Part of the answer is the density in the city and the feeling of many pedestrians on the streets. Having lived in Edinburgh, Scotland the feel of the "downtown" is one of packed sidewalks and constant buses and arriving trains, but it is not a metropolis and has far less than a million people in the metro area and Princes Street has probably more street traffic than any American city outside of NYC. In contrast, even our lauded Peachtree St. is a lazy thoroughfare (only exception might be at 14th Street where there is moderate activity).
Obviously a great part of this imagery is due to the fact that cars are not an easy option in these apparently "big" feel cities. In fact, many major cities in Europe simply restrict the use of private cars in the center and on major shopping streets.

I am always reminded of the reported "fact" that the entire center of Florence, It. would fit within the I285 -I75 interchange.

I get what you're saying, but I have to disagree a bit. I travel all over the country for the work that I do and have for the last 35+ years. This is just my opinion, but of each of the cities you mentioned, only Philly "seems" bigger to me. Seattle and Boston don't. A comparison I like to make is that Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas all seemed about the same to me 25 or 30 years ago. But those two have clearly outpaced Atlanta over that time frame and now each seems, and in fact are, bigger. I also like to say Los Angeles is Atlanta on steroids.

Seattle and Boston do have more dense downtown cores. Metro Atlanta remains the least dense major metro in the nation. But, again, in my opinion, metro Atlanta seems bigger than both metro Seattle and metro Boston. And it is!

[GTdan]

[QUOTE=Tuckerman;10118242]

Originally Posted by newuserbuckhead

I've said this to plenty of people but Atlanta doesn't feel as big as what it is. Maybe it's because I've been here too long where Midtown/Downtown don't make me awe struck anymore, but cities like Boston/Seattle/Philly just feel bigger, even if Atlanta Metro is bigger.

How "big" a city feels is an interesting concept. Of course the core "political cities" of Boston, Philly and Seattle are all more populous than the city of Atlanta. But one could make the same case that LA doesn't "feel" as big as Chicago.
Part of the answer is the density in the city and the feeling of many pedestrians on the streets. Having lived in Edinburgh, Scotland the feel of the "downtown" is one of packed sidewalks and constant buses and arriving trains, but it is not a metropolis and has far less than a million people in the metro area and Princes Street has probably more street traffic than any American city outside of NYC. In contrast, even our lauded Peachtree St. is a lazy thoroughfare (only exception might be at 14th Street where there is moderate activity).
Obviously a great part of this imagery is due to the fact that cars are not an easy option in these apparently "big" feel cities. In fact, many major cities in Europe simply restrict the use of private cars in the center and on major shopping streets.

I am always reminded of the reported "fact" that the entire center of Florence, It. would fit within the I285 -I75 interchange.

There's really nothing special about Peachtree St. I'd love to see the city convert it to pedestrian only. This would be a huge boost for midtown/downtown and could change the area in a way the beltline did for other parts of town.

[testarossa50]

I think they mean when you're walking the streets of a city, which city feels bigger.

Atlanta holds its own against Houston and Dallas (quite handily I would say), but is lackluster against Boston, Seattle, DC, Philly.

Regarding Peachtree Street, I think it's time to make the street 2 lanes with some left turn lanes/bike lanes starting at 14th going all the way down to Five Points. Make sidewalks wider and make the whole pedestrian experience better, to help drive premium rents and retail along the street. Force cars into the nearby car sewers--Peachtree Street is never the fastest way to get anywhere anyways. They did it in downtown for a year during the pandemic and it was amazing...but then they undid it.

Honestly I would support a long term vision of making it car-free in as many blocks as possible, while adding kiosks and plazas throughout. Unfortunately there are vehicle access points to many of the existing properties.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

How "big" a city feels is an interesting concept. Of course the core "political cities" of Boston, Philly and Seattle are all more populous than the city of Atlanta. But one could make the same case that LA doesn't "feel" as big as Chicago.
Part of the answer is the density in the city and the feeling of many pedestrians on the streets. Having lived in Edinburgh, Scotland the feel of the "downtown" is one of packed sidewalks and constant buses and arriving trains, but it is not a metropolis and has far less than a million people in the metro area and Princes Street has probably more street traffic than any American city outside of NYC. In contrast, even our lauded Peachtree St. is a lazy thoroughfare (only exception might be at 14th Street where there is moderate activity).
Obviously a great part of this imagery is due to the fact that cars are not an easy option in these apparently "big" feel cities. In fact, many major cities in Europe simply restrict the use of private cars in the center and on major shopping streets.

I am always reminded of the reported "fact" that the entire center of Florence, It. would fit within the I285 -I75 interchange.

not really, though it would be a non insignificant portion of it regardless - https://acme.com/same_scale/#33.9025...1.25421,13,M,M (comparing spaghetti junction with florence)

[shivtim]

[QUOTE=GTdan;10118324]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

There's really nothing special about Peachtree St. I'd love to see the city convert it to pedestrian only. This would be a huge boost for midtown/downtown and could change the area in a way the beltline did for other parts of town.

Please share this (in writing as public input) to Midtown Alliance! They are kicking off a process to reimagine Peachtree street in Midtown. We can all push for it to maximize ped/bike infrastructure.

[Tuckerman]

Originally Posted by cabasse

not really, though it would be a non insignificant portion of it regardless - https://acme.com/same_scale/#33.9025...1.25421,13,M,M (comparing spaghetti junction with florence)

I was not comparing spaghetti junction with Florence, but the Intersection of I 75 and I 285 in Cobb County. See https://atlurbanist.tumblr.com/post/...ntas-i-75i-285

[newuserbuckhead]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

How "big" a city feels is an interesting concept. Of course the core "political cities" of Boston, Philly and Seattle are all more populous than the city of Atlanta. But one could make the same case that LA doesn't "feel" as big as Chicago.

Chicago is the second most densely built city in the country, only behind NYC. I haven't been there yet, but I've done enough reading and watched enough videos on the city to understand the true historic rivalry between Chi and NYC when the skyscraper was first built.

On the one hand, I hate when Youtubers and publications use city populations vs metro populations to compare. Jacksonville and San Antonia are literally larger city populations than Atlanta, but no one would actually say those two cities are larger than Atlanta. On the other hand, using only core city areas to compare is often nice; unless the core city has annexed most of its metro (cough Jax and SanAn)

Originally Posted by SteveD

I get what you're saying, but I have to disagree a bit. I travel all over the country for the work that I do and have for the last 35+ years. This is just my opinion, but of each of the cities you mentioned, only Philly "seems" bigger to me. Seattle and Boston don't. A comparison I like to make is that Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas all seemed about the same to me 25 or 30 years ago. But those two have clearly outpaced Atlanta over that time frame and now each seems, and in fact are, bigger. I also like to say Los Angeles is Atlanta on steroids.

Seattle and Boston do have more dense downtown cores. Metro Atlanta remains the least dense major metro in the nation. But, again, in my opinion, metro Atlanta seems bigger than both metro Seattle and metro Boston. And it is!

Since I literally said Metro Atlanta was bigger than Seattle and Boston, and soon to be bigger than Philly, not sure what your point is?

Atlanta, to me, feels significantly larger than Houston, and a good deal bigger than Dallas. The city feeling is bigger here than either of those two cities, but yes, their metros are larger.

When you're walking around Seattle, Boston, or Phily, those cities built up area and urban feel seems to go on for miles with little to no break in the "urbanity" of the city. While Atlanta, it's very disjointed. There are pockets of great urban fabric, but then wide swaths of empty, or large noticeable pockets of empty. Parking lots in downtown or midtown, or literally empty spaces inside the beltline.