Why Does Toronto Have *So Many* Proposed Buildings?

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

Dc_denizen is getting a lot of shit for his cynical view of Canada, but any grouping of Canadians on the internet will see US policy, culture and society described in the most exaggeratedly pejorative terms on a regular basis.

There are times when you would think Canadians are describing the DRC or even some sort of alien dystopia devoted to injustice for the pure fun of it, rather than a neighbouring country whose folkways mirror its own so closely that Canadians abroad like me are assumed to be American by everyone they meet.

We can dish it out, it seems...

May I suggest the following:

DC_Denizen has earned his reputation. No one so far as I can see is spending their time in this thread bashing any American City, nor the U.S. as a whole.

DC is spending time here bashing Toronto; which is his perpetual habit.

Comparing general topics of conversation among some Canadians with one poster with a repetitive, arguably obsessively negative point of view isn't really reasonable.

****

In respect of Canadian attitudes more broadly, I don't see wide spread American-bashing. Certainly, many Canadians prefer the country in which they live to that of their neighbour; as would be the same in most decent countries in the world I expect.

There is certainly bashing of Trump (common enough in the U.S. and everywhere else); and some disdain for/disbelief of the level of gun violence or the state of polarized politics etc.

I don't see that as intricately unreasonable.

If an American or a Swede, German or Brazilian has some informed criticism of Canada, I'm personally content to hear that.

As I think many in Canada would be. If someone wants to point that we could have handled and should handle the relationship to First Nations better.........fair game. Likewise if someone wants to suggest that Canada's work-life balance doesn't match that of Europe. Etc etc.

But that is distinct from entering a thread for the sole purpose of derailing it with mindless criticism of a place.

****

Also, as you and I have discussed before, I don't think your suggestion that English Canada is America North is not remotely accurate.

Its one you've repeated before; and I genuinely believe its misinformed; and with apologies to our American friends, it reads as pejorative.

You're a great poster, whose made lots of quality contributions that I appreciate, but I would prefer you to steer clear of that view which I just don't think has any evidence behind it.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

If SSP is actually proving noisome, it might be time for a break.

I am sorry if, as strongly implied, you find my posts about living abroad to be tedious or tendentious -- I really am. We have both been here a long time and I've always valued your opinion. If I seem harder on Canada than Sweden, it's because of the difference between talking about your own house vs. someone else's.

But it's just a forum and we're all just calling them as we see them.

I don't know, but it all seems to make you pretty mad sometimes.

Maybe I didn't make myself clear to whom I was referring to regarding the cracked record analogy, so apologies from me on that front. I didn't mean you. I meant that dc_denizen sounds like a cracked record with the same tinny tune of anti-Canadian-anything (especially Toronto). So many people have noticed his axiomatic tendency to piss on anything positive being discussed in relation to Canada/Toronto. That our economy is nothing but real estate propped up by Chinese money. It is nauseating. He clearly has an axe to grind, although I would imagine he has ground that axe right down to the helve.

[Crawford]

Is there a large affluent demo of Toronto families that live in highrise or high-density housing? Anecdotal, but it seems that Toronto might be among the two most highrise-oriented North American metros, but affluent families prefer SFH?

The HNW families I've encountered almost all have in-town urban addresses, but almost all are in those affluent SFH neighborhoods along Yonge, and maybe a bit around High Park, I think? So wealth is very core-oriented, but living preferences follow a more standard North American template?

What's the typical demo in the newer downtown highrises? Young professionals?

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I find that threads about Toronto can't last a page before devolving into mudslinging.

I'm a local, but I'm pretty critical about Toronto when I need to be.

The truth is that, if you're going to measure skyscraper construction statistics, Toronto is simply going to crush any city in North America barring much bigger NYC. This is probably going to rankle a few people.

This isn't because Toronto's city government is enlightened or because Torontonians have some kind of can-do attitude toward building a teeming world city. This is because of market and societal fundamentals, all of which can be interpreted either positively or negatively.

To wit:

1. Toronto is growing rapidly due to immigration (A lot of people are attracted to Toronto/A lot of people are forced to move to Toronto because Canada has few cities with real economic diversity)

2. The provincial government has enforced a very strict and very large growth boundary and green belt, restricting all development for the next few decades to infill or a greenfield area the size of which a place like Phoenix or Dallas gobbles up in an average year. (Wow! What an enlightened provincial government to stop sprawl so effectively/It just drives housing prices through the roof, and we are still building auto-centric communities, just at much higher densities so people are even more likely to be stuck in traffic)

3. Torontonians are familiar with high rise lifestyles; even before the boom 1/4 of us lived in highrises (What urban-focused people! In other cities people would just NIMBY the shit out of a building that's 5 stories tall 5 miles away/The rich just live in single family homes anyway - actually the fact that 1/4 of the people take up more than 3/4 of the residential land area, and they're really fierce about any densification encroachments on their neighbourhoods means that Toronto developers are forced to build really tall skyscrapers in a handful of places.)

Foreign money laundering and ownership does not cause the skyscraper boom. Foreign investors just buy whatever housing form is available and nets them an ROI. In Toronto they buy condos. In the San Gabriel valley they buy monster homes. They buy monster homes in some Toronto suburbs too.

now this is a very well considered and enjoyable to read post -- bravo. i would not expect any less from a hipster duck!

i would just add to number one that while yes its popular that trump has shut the immigration door and toronto and other canadian cities are reaping that gifthorse.

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is there a large affluent demo of Toronto families that live in highrise or high-density housing? Anecdotal, but it seems that Toronto might be among the two most highrise-oriented North American metros, but affluent families prefer SFH?

The HNW families I've encountered almost all have in-town urban addresses, but almost all are in those affluent SFH neighborhoods along Yonge, and maybe a bit around High Park, I think? So wealth is very core-oriented, but living preferences follow a more standard North American template?

What's the typical demo in the newer downtown highrises? Young professionals?

Wealthy Anglo families? Very few in high-rises in my experience. You have that contingent of empty nesters who may go for a well-located urban condo. Even then, they're going to be attracted more to places like this.

Yonge Street - Summerhill



Immigrant families are going to be more likely to adopt high-rise full family living. Anecdotally I know of several Chinese and South Asian families that have 1-2 kids in our building because I've been in the elevator with them during the morning rush. Not a single white family as far as I know. Still, I think it's fair to say wealthy Chinese families are still drawn more to large SFHs in Markham than they are Downtown high-rises

If we're talking an actual high-rise South of Bloor and East of Bathurst, it's going to be overwhelmingly student and young professional renters, and slightly older professionals/couples more likely to own their unit.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is there a large affluent demo of Toronto families that live in highrise or high-density housing? Anecdotal, but it seems that Toronto might be among the two most highrise-oriented North American metros, but affluent families prefer SFH?

The HNW families I've encountered almost all have in-town urban addresses, but almost all are in those affluent SFH neighborhoods along Yonge, and maybe a bit around High Park, I think? So wealth is very core-oriented, but living preferences follow a more standard North American template?

What's the typical demo in the newer downtown highrises? Young professionals?

Disproportionately, the HNW set live in SFH housing. Typically in Rosedale, Moore Park, Forest Hill, Lawrence Park, High Park, the Annex and a smattering in the Beach area. (not to omit the Bridle Path area, home to Drake, amongst others, near Lawrence/Bayview)

But there are certainly luxury hirise buildings that have singles/couples and small families living in them.

The Mayor, for instance, is a very affluent individual and he and his wife living in a Condo on Bloor, right by the University.

But they are well past the point of the kids being at home; and at the stage of grandkids coming by.

One could name several other high end buildings, but most residents will be singles/couples with a small number who have younger, typically small families.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Wealthy Anglo families
Yonge Street - Summerhill

No offense if anyone lives in this place, but that Parisian knock off design seems so tacky.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Very good post.

Only thing I would caveat is the very last point. Foreign money (completely legal or of questionable origins) that pays cash expedites development timelines as it de-risks developers. I don't think it's the root cause of the boom itself, but I think it's a big driver as to why proposals seem to spring out of the ground like weeds. I took the OP as not just questioning why Toronto builds so many skyscrapers, but why it has so many proposals relative to other cities that also build skyscrapers and are growing fast. Part of that is just that proposals isn't some legal definition and local zoning bylaws or development processes may behave different. I think part is also that a seemingly endless demand for pre-sales and investor-oriented condos lets everybody and their dog put in an application and fuels quicker development than a more traditional rental model.

That's a good point. But would this be any different if Toronto was an investor haven, but it didn't have any growth constraints and its primary new housing development was new subdivisions?

I will say that condos in a downtown with a huge job market will have an advantage in the sense that the value of a good location is baked in for life.

A subdivision in a completely decentralized city like Phoenix doesn't really have much of a location factor to it - or at least not one that will stay decent forever.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is there a large affluent demo of Toronto families that live in highrise or high-density housing? Anecdotal, but it seems that Toronto might be among the two most highrise-oriented North American metros, but affluent families prefer SFH?

HNW families with children are the most space-constrained and least cost-constrained demographic on the market so even in a place like Toronto they'll rarely squeeze into a highrise condo - even a really good highrise condo in a rich downtown location like Yorkville.

Toronto probably has the second highest proportion of this demographic living in highrises after NY, but it's a distant second.

However, there is definitely growth in the number of early millennial (1981-1988) parents with children who have dual professional jobs living in 2 and 3 BR condos. These people are at about the 90th percentile of earnings. Their equivalents 15 years ago would have bought semi-detached homes in close-in neighbourhoods that are now impossible to get unless you already have substantial equity.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Also, as you and I have discussed before, I don't think your suggestion that English Canada is America North is not remotely accurate.

You guys are just polite Americans with healthcare who eat french fries with lumpy gravy.

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Is there a large affluent demo of Toronto families that live in highrise or high-density housing? Anecdotal, but it seems that Toronto might be among the two most highrise-oriented North American metros, but affluent families prefer SFH?

The HNW families I've encountered almost all have in-town urban addresses, but almost all are in those affluent SFH neighborhoods along Yonge, and maybe a bit around High Park, I think? So wealth is very core-oriented, but living preferences follow a more standard North American template?

What's the typical demo in the newer downtown highrises? Young professionals?

In general, Toronto has never been traditionally a city where wealthy families chose to live in highrises. There are just too many great neighborhoods of SFH’s within a stone throw of the core. I live in one of them.

Maybe that is starting to change a bit, but not in significant numbers. For sure there are several high end buildings with 3 bedroom + units such as in 38 Avenue Rd, The Four Seasons, 195 Davenport, 133 Hazelton, Museum House, 1 Bedford, The Avenue (Avenue & St. Clair), Scrivener Square etc, etc. But let’s be honest, if you need to drop 5-6 million for a good unit, you might as well get a decent house in Rosedale or Forest Hill.

In my view, the pandemic has not helped making the case for HNW families living in highrises either, when having a good sized backyard with a swimming pool and large entertaining areas, close to private schools in a nice neighborhood near the urban core is seen as more important than ever.

By the way, there are several wealthy areas that are not along the Yonge Street corridor nor High Park such as The Kingsway, Islington (by the Islington Golf Club), Baby Point, Fallingbrook (by the Toronto Hunt Club), The Bridle Path, etc.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by JManc

You guys are just polite Americans with healthcare who eat french fries with lumpy gravy.

not even exclusively. while we weren't polite, they did serve poutine at my high school cafeteria in clevelandia way back when and it was very popular. except they didn't call it poutine, we just called it gravy with chunks.

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

That's a good point. But would this be any different if Toronto was an investor haven, but it didn't have any growth constraints and its primary new housing development was new subdivisions?

I think so because as I theorized in my post on the first page, the underlying demand for central living is robust and not driven by what investors anywhere are doing. Young people who grew up or have moved to Toronto want to live downtown, period. Foreign investors have just dictated how that demand is serviced as developers eagerly accept very high yet low-risk returns from condos as opposed to the more humble business model of purpose-built rental.

Now you could argue that if we didn't have space constraints and you could buy cheap detached homes somewhere in Caledon for $400,000 would that lessen the demand for downtown high-rise units? maybe, but that's a whole different debate and all theoretical. It wouldn't change the commuting struggles that have driven companies back towards downtown centralization.

[Maldive]

Originally Posted by JManc

You guys are just polite Americans with 1. healthcare who eat 2. french fries with lumpy gravy.

Number 2 is why number 1 is so important.

We have to learn to eat healthy like canada south does.

[Acajack]

Note that "SFH" districts in central Toronto range from this to this:

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.67019...7i16384!8i8192

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.73564...7i16384!8i8192

There is way more of the former with houses often attached in some way.

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Note that "SFH" districts in central Toronto range from this to this:



https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.73564...7i16384!8i8192

Hey, how did you find my Toronto weekend getaway/tiny home place

[Crawford]

I think the SFH question speaks to some of the transnational differences, and why it's difficult for some Americans to understand the Canadian demand factors.

In NY, almost all highrise construction in prime neighborhoods is family-oriented, and has been for decades. The buildings with hundreds of units don't pencil out anymore. There are new buildings with hundreds of smaller units, for the 20- and 30-something single professionals, but along the Jersey side, and in Queens, not really in Manhattan. Manhattan buildings tend to be 2-5 bedrooms, and often really big (3,000 sq. ft.+) spaces, especially in the traditional residential neighborhoods. Developers also find it cheaper to overestimate family demand, because it's cheaper to split up big units than to combine smaller units.

Also, apartments in prime neighborhoods are much more expensive psf than SFH in prime neighborhoods. $2 million will get you a 1,000 sq. ft. apartment, or a mini mansion in a streetcar suburb. But in Toronto the inverse seems to be true. Yet Toronto seems to be building multifamily like crazy, even though multifamily seems much cheaper than SFH. Maybe lower construction costs? Or maybe cultural preferences (Chinese buyers are known to prefer new construction, so maybe gravitate to the new condos)?

And I get that both metros have a huge class of affluent young professionals. I just don't get how that population, by itself, can drive this much construction.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

now this is a very well considered and enjoyable to read post -- bravo. i would not expect any less from a hipster duck!

i would just add to number one that while yes its popular that trump has shut the immigration door and toronto and other canadian cities are reaping that gifthorse.

Toronto and Canada aren't taking any more immigrants than before trump. Whatever the US does, doesn't affect how much immigrants the Canadian and Quebec government let in.
Do you honestly think the Canadian government changes it immigrantion targets based on what the US government does?

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I think the SFH question speaks to some of the transnational differences, and why it's difficult for some Americans to understand the Canadian demand factors.

In NY, almost all highrise construction in prime neighborhoods is family-oriented, and has been for decades. The buildings with hundreds of units don't pencil out anymore. There are new buildings with hundreds of smaller units, for the 20- and 30-something single professionals, but along the Jersey side, and in Queens, not really in Manhattan. Manhattan buildings tend to be 2-5 bedrooms, and often really big (3,000 sq. ft.+) spaces, especially in the traditional residential neighborhoods. Developers also find it cheaper to overestimate family demand, because it's cheaper to split up big units than to combine smaller units.

Also, apartments in prime neighborhoods are much more expensive psf than SFH in prime neighborhoods. $2 million will get you a 1,000 sq. ft. apartment, or a mini mansion in a streetcar suburb. But in Toronto the inverse seems to be true. Yet Toronto seems to be building multifamily like crazy, even though multifamily seems much cheaper than SFH. Maybe lower construction costs? Or maybe cultural preferences (Chinese buyers are known to prefer new construction, so maybe gravitate to the new condos)?

And I get that both metros have a huge class of affluent young professionals. I just don't get how that population, by itself, can drive this much construction.

Average cost of a Highrise Condo in Toronto $580,000 (1 bedroom)
Average cost of a Highrise Condo in Toronto $690,000 (2 bedrooms)
Average cost of a Highrise Condo in Toronto $570,000 (3 bedrooms)

Average cost of a SFH in Toronto $890,000 (2 bedrooms)
Average cost of a SFH in Toronto $1,020,000 (3 bedrooms)
Average cost of a SFH in Toronto $1,550,000 (4 beedrooms)
Average cost of a SFH in Toronto $2,100,000 (5 bedrooms)

along with the reasons given by hipster duck, this is another reason Toronto builds so many highrises. If you are not a millionaire a condo is all you can afford if you are buying property. You will still need close to a million moving anywhere in commuter distance to Toronto as well.

here is a great neighbourhood by neighbourhood interactive map of homes per different categories
https://toronto.listing.ca/real-esta...-community.htm

[shappy]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Note that "SFH" districts in central Toronto range from this to this:

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.67019...7i16384!8i8192

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.73564...7i16384!8i8192

There is way more of the former with houses often attached in some way.

Pardon the nitpick but the Annex would still be considered among the high-end neighbourhoods. More realistic lower end would look more like this.