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  #41  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 6:09 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
There are still far more people who want to come to the U.S. than actually make it here. The U.S. has the luxury of adjusting how many people it allows in to suit its demographic needs.
Remember that this thread about births and immigration is in response to the idea that currently undeveloped areas (in the inter mountain West especially) will explode in population in the future.

When realistically the U.S. will only use immigration to keep its existing cities stable, especially as demographic decline takes a toll. The boom cities created by past European and Latin American immigration really are the result of high birth rates and unrestricted growth that likely won't be repeated.
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  #42  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 6:50 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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The boom cities created by past European and Latin American immigration really are the result of high birth rates and unrestricted growth that likely won't be repeated.
If you expect the peaceful political situation (relatively speaking) In Europe and Asia to continue, I would not be very certain of that going on indefinitely.

Lets say the EU falls apart, as it appears to be doing in slow motion, that could usher in a new wave of European Immigrants. Same if China implodes, at some point as it historically tends to do. Latin America is usually a fairly mundane place geopolitical, they dont typically fight each-other but that does not guarantee some of the larger states like Brazil or Peru (Venezuela for example) imploding politically and causing waves of immigrants.

The relative stability of the last several decades is a vestige of the cold war that the US has gladly maintained but is rapidly not having much interest in doing so. As such history is about to come roaring back with a vengeance as the ebb and flow of local rivalries and desires for empire come creeping back into the world, something we have almost forgotten was the norm until this very recent aberration in history brought on by US hegemony.
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  #43  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 7:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
There are billions of people in Asia and Latin America. They'll come to the U.S., if they're allowed to.

It has little to do with "surplus population" nowadays; immigrants to the U.S. are often highly educated and taking advantage of better pay and opportunities. There's no better place on the planet for professionals.
But what are you aiming for? The billions of people in Asia and Latin America or only the handful better educated ones? In any case, the majority of people don't migrate. Most people don't even leave their cities.

Young people are the ones prone to migrate. With a declining East Asia/Latin America, the poll where to US gets its migrants from is getting smaller year after year while the US natural growth is also getting always smaller, demanding more immigrants.

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I don't see what birth rates have to do with anything. Eastern Europe has a small, declining population, yet still provides enough people to fuel Western European growth. Germany would be declining absent Eastern Europe. China won't be a demographic Hungary or Romania till we're all dead.
No, it doesn't provide anything. They just bought a couple of positive years for Germany which is nothing on the long run. German natural growth is negative at 200,000 and growing in a very fast pace. Bulgarians, Romanians and Hungarians can provide at most 60,000 a year in an almost mass emigration scenario. And each year there were less and less people in those countries to be sent to Germany.
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  #44  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 7:12 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
2 - Asia and Latin America have been the biggest sources of immigration in the post-war era. There will probably be some pullback from Asia, particularly China, as the standard of living improves there. But 1) it's not going to go to zero anytime soon, and 2) there are still many areas of the world that have many people wanting to get here, such as Africa. Latin America immigration is a question mark as it will depend on political stability, which could be complicated by climate situations.

3 - There are still far more people who want to come to the U.S. than actually make it here. The U.S. has the luxury of adjusting how many people it allows in to suit its demographic needs.
Again, I'm not arguing that immigration will stop. What I'm saying that scenario between 1990-2010, where millions of people immigrate to the US, will probably won't repeat anymore. Heck, the net migration from Mexico fell from almost 1 million a year to pretty much to zero.

Going back to the thread, the US won't grow at a double-digit/decade anymore. Between 1990-2000, it grew 13%. Back then, natural growth was much bigger as immigration. And with the US growing 6% (the new normal) instead of 13%, we'll hardly have Austin growing at 35%, Dallas 25% or the Rust Belt stop declining.
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  #45  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 7:38 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Again, I'm not arguing that immigration will stop. What I'm saying that scenario between 1990-2010, where millions of people immigrate to the US, will probably won't repeat anymore. Heck, the net migration from Mexico fell from almost 1 million a year to pretty much to zero.

Going back to the thread, the US won't grow at a double-digit/decade anymore. Between 1990-2000, it grew 13%. Back then, natural growth was much bigger as immigration. And with the US growing 6% (the new normal) instead of 13%, we'll hardly have Austin growing at 35%, Dallas 25% or the Rust Belt stop declining.
I'm not sure I see evidence for this yet. U.S. population growth is still within its recently historical bounds. U.S. population increases:

1960: 2.9M
1980: 2.3M
1990: 2.5M
2000: 2.8M
2010: 2.5M
2017: 2.3M

The U.S. population increased by anywhere between 2.3-2.9M for the past 60 years, which is the era that witnessed the growth of the Sun Belt regions. The country is still adding somewhere between the equivalent of a Metro Denver per year, and a Metro New York per decade. The country's growth patterns would need to change substantially for it to not be able to sustain the growth trajectories of the Sun Belt.
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  #46  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 9:56 PM
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1990-2000 - 32.7 million (13.2%)

2000-2010 - 27.3 million (9.7%)

2010-2018 - 18.4 million (6.0%)

By 2020, the increase will be around 7.2%, almost half of registered two decades ago. If that's not a sharp decline, I don't know what is.

In the 2030's, when the Baby Boomers start to die off en masse, it will be very challenging to keep numbers on positive terrain.

--------------------

When it comes to the US Non-Hispanic Whites, things are even more grim:

1990 - 188.1 million
2000 - 194.6 million
2010 - 196.8 million
2017 - 197.3 million

From 6.5 million/decade to mere 500k within 30 years. More and more immigrants will be needed to close this gap.
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  #47  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2019, 10:07 PM
montréaliste montréaliste is offline
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Foot stomping noise---

Can we please get back on topic?

lol.

Who cares?

Talent, lol. Superstar cities. lol
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  #48  
Old Posted Nov 28, 2019, 5:00 AM
liat91 liat91 is offline
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
If you expect the peaceful political situation (relatively speaking) In Europe and Asia to continue, I would not be very certain of that going on indefinitely.

Lets say the EU falls apart, as it appears to be doing in slow motion, that could usher in a new wave of European Immigrants. Same if China implodes, at some point as it historically tends to do. Latin America is usually a fairly mundane place geopolitical, they dont typically fight each-other but that does not guarantee some of the larger states like Brazil or Peru (Venezuela for example) imploding politically and causing waves of immigrants.

The relative stability of the last several decades is a vestige of the cold war that the US has gladly maintained but is rapidly not having much interest in doing so. As such history is about to come roaring back with a vengeance as the ebb and flow of local rivalries and desires for empire come creeping back into the world, something we have almost forgotten was the norm until this very recent aberration in history brought on by US hegemony.
Superstar talent has to come from somewhere, of which for this country means foreign born.

Not that I’m hoping Europe or China fall in to chaos, lol, usually social upheavals coincide with a large youthful demographic bulge along with an authoritarian elite keen to make insidious use of. I don’t see that happening in aging China or Europe, like at all.

We are approaching a time like no other in human history. A huge population that will be shrinking. I’m not sure how it will play out honestly. If quality of life continues it’s expansion to more of the planet, without addressing environmental impacts, chaos may very well follow soon after.

The way to keep our cities “superstar” magnets, will definitely not rely on another 100 million people. China’s cities are growing like that from internal migration and although their skylines rock, I don’t know anyone clamoring to move to any of them.
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  #49  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 12:45 PM
emathias emathias is offline
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1946 - 1964. 1946 was within 9 months of many soldiers returning home from the war.
1945 is generally used for simplicity, and because troop drawdowns started when the end of some of the secondary fronts began and even the major fronts had writing on the wall. It wasn't only soldiers returning, but people secure in knowing that the war's end was within sight that started there baby brigades.

Anyway, I was born in Boise and my parents live there. I'm the oldest of three boys and live in Chicago. My middle brother also lived in Chicago until a few years ago when he decided to buy a home in Boise's North End neighborhood. But he travels literally 75% of the time so saying he "lives" there is kind of an overstatement. My youngest brother lives in the Seattle suburbs and is the only of us to have children - two girls and a boy due next month. My family has deep roots in Idaho, with a grandfather who was a prosecuting attorney, and a great uncle who was a working cowboy before WWII, flew as a tail gunner in B-17s during the war, and returned to be a rodeo performer and then horse and horse jumper trainer until he died. In those circles he was famous enough someone unrelated to the family wrote a biography of him after his death. His wife was English, from the war.

Boise is growing like mad, and is a quaint city. There is some old money there - the Albertson and the Simplot names fund a lot, and Simplot, famous for inventing and producing most of McDonald's French fries for decades, and the reason Idaho is famous for potatoes, used his billions to start Micron, a large semiconductor company.

But Idaho is still relatively poor overall, and outside of Boise and some of the Native reservations, deep red. The whole Treasure Valley area has a lot of growing pains, but that also made another Uncle of mine moderately wealthy, growing the second-largest concrete construction company in the state from all that immigration-driven construction. So you have mixed feelings there about the liberal Californians moving in and driving up prices - my brother's modest, ranch-style home in Boise, with about 2,000 square feet, built in the 50s or 60s but with recent renovations, cost him $650,000. But he's employed by a New York bank, so he's "part of the problem" if he didn't have family ties there (he was born in Portland, not Boise).

Anyway, I think if he didn't travel so much he'd still live in Chicago or maybe in New York for career reasons. The only reason he can get away with a home in Boise, working for the bank he does, is that he has to travel for business so much. If he gets promoted much more, he may have to establish a second home in Manhattan. But I work in the trading industry and while you can have a career as a trader from anywhere now, if you want to be the best, you should be in New York for equities, London for metals and currencies, Chicago for options or agricultural commodities and derivatives. There's some flexibility, and some can make it work in Hong Kong or Singapore or Tokyo, etc, those secondary locations are either stepping stones or self-limiting for most people who chose those locations. It's much the same in law and other industries - you can make a decent career that the vast majority of Americans would be enviable of if you're good, even in secondary markets, but the best, most competitive, most highly compensated jobs will be in the top cities for those industries. You can live as a working actor or producer or writer in Chicago or Atlanta, but if you want to be a really big star, you have to be in LA or maybe New York unless you're John Hughes or Tyler Perry type material. I can't think of too many industries where the top jobs don't concentrate up into one or two major cities, no matter how widespread the base is.
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  #50  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 1:30 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
US non-Hispanic White population has already declining and Baby Boomer generation hasn't even started to die out.

When that happen, the US White population will experience a sharp decline and even in a very unlikely event of a recovering TFR, that will not be enough as the generation dying will be bigger than the generation in the child bearing age.

Other racial groups will soon follow suit and immigration will be scarce as the main sources will be also experiencing decline.

There's nothing rosy about US demographics.
Yes Ive been following this^ Growth is not what it used to be, even our fastest growing areas are not growing as fast as they used to.

However the same applies for much of the world, including the entire American Hemisphere. Population growth will be slowing down everywhere except Africa. By 2100 world population growth will nearly stop.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...f-the-century/
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  #51  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 6:06 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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I'm still not getting why people are citing global demographic trends to U.S. immigration policy. There's no relationship.

Again, all things equal, the U.S. is the most desirable location for talent. So global demographic trends are irrelevant, unless we get to the point where there are literally no people left. Even if the planet's population were cut in half (which wouldn't happen for centuries), that should not have any impact on the U.S. ability to attract the best and brightest (unless the U.S. were no longer the most desirable destination).

The U.S., more than any other country on earth, can pick and choose its talent. It's only hamstrung by politics.
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  #52  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 6:20 PM
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Not to beat a dead horse, but if anyone knows anything about Demographics they'll know that demographic growth is plummeting in most countries in Latin America. Most of Eastern South America (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina) will start losing population in the next two decades. Not due to outward immigration, but due to low birth rates.

These countries already produce insignificant immigration numbers to the US, so they'll not be exporting more than now in any future that we'll see.

If the US wants to grow population, it needs to look inward and give child baring aged adults financial incentives to do so, more than currently. Also, the only countries that seem to be booming still in population growth is Subsaharan Africa and India. Indians are already immigrating to the US en masse, but Subsaharan Africans are sill a rarity. Not sure why, but I don't see the US welcoming millions of Nigerians and the like.
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  #53  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 7:42 PM
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Not to beat a dead horse, but if anyone knows anything about Demographics they'll know that demographic growth is plummeting in most countries in Latin America. Most of Eastern South America (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina) will start losing population in the next two decades. Not due to outward immigration, but due to low birth rates.

These countries already produce insignificant immigration numbers to the US, so they'll not be exporting more than now in any future that we'll see.

If the US wants to grow population, it needs to look inward and give child baring aged adults financial incentives to do so, more than currently. Also, the only countries that seem to be booming still in population growth is Subsaharan Africa and India. Indians are already immigrating to the US en masse, but Subsaharan Africans are sill a rarity. Not sure why, but I don't see the US welcoming millions of Nigerians and the like.
Spelling Nazi here: It's child bearing. https://www.google.com/search?client...q=child+baring
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  #54  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 9:23 PM
liat91 liat91 is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I'm still not getting why people are citing global demographic trends to U.S. immigration policy. There's no relationship.

Again, all things equal, the U.S. is the most desirable location for talent. So global demographic trends are irrelevant, unless we get to the point where there are literally no people left. Even if the planet's population were cut in half (which wouldn't happen for centuries), that should not have any impact on the U.S. ability to attract the best and brightest (unless the U.S. were no longer the most desirable destination).

The U.S., more than any other country on earth, can pick and choose its talent. It's only hamstrung by politics.
Not sure what you mean, when one only needs to look at Europe or Japan for an example of how demographics effects migration. The US has entered a phase that makes it desirable for monetary reasons only. We’re attempting to use the idea of multiculturalism as a secondary magnet, but it’s not working. As soon as quality of life in a particular country matches that of present day Mexico, I don’t thing people will bother to uproot en masse.
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  #55  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 9:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I'm still not getting why people are citing global demographic trends to U.S. immigration policy. There's no relationship.

Again, all things equal, the U.S. is the most desirable location for talent. So global demographic trends are irrelevant, unless we get to the point where there are literally no people left. Even if the planet's population were cut in half (which wouldn't happen for centuries), that should not have any impact on the U.S. ability to attract the best and brightest (unless the U.S. were no longer the most desirable destination).

The U.S., more than any other country on earth, can pick and choose its talent. It's only hamstrung by politics.
Wow, is this Crawford? I agree. The US should be very selective as to who we let in. Only the best and the brightest and those that aren't quite there, can compete with the others to elevate themselves, before they get here.

In other words, we should be like other countries!
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  #56  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 9:48 PM
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1945 is generally used for simplicity, and because troop drawdowns started when the end of some of the secondary fronts began and even the major fronts had writing on the wall. It wasn't only soldiers returning, but people secure in knowing that the war's end was within sight that started there baby brigades.
People born in 1945 are Silents, not Boomers even if some of them precipitated the Post War Baby boom. Their generation bookend'ed the WW2 era which ended in mid 1945.
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  #57  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2019, 10:04 PM
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People born in 1945 are Silents, not Boomers even if some of them precipitated the Post War Baby boom. Their generation bookend'ed the WW2 era which ended in mid 1945.
My dad was born in 1945 and my mom [first born out of 4 total kids] was born in 1946 when her dad returned home from Island Jumping in the Pacific. He literally came home to his wife and started a family immediately. Purple Heart twice over, shot in a couple wars - close call gang, otherwise Sun Belt wouldn't be around to drop knowledge bombs on the Gang!

My dad's dad was too old to fight. They suffered through the Great Depression in extreme poverty. He was 52 years old when my dad was born -- in better economic times.
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  #58  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 1:23 PM
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Not sure what you mean, when one only needs to look at Europe or Japan for an example of how demographics effects migration. The US has entered a phase that makes it desirable for monetary reasons only. We’re attempting to use the idea of multiculturalism as a secondary magnet, but it’s not working. As soon as quality of life in a particular country matches that of present day Mexico, I don’t thing people will bother to uproot en masse.
Exactly, global population trends has everything to do with international migration patterns. A growing Latin America is already sending very few immigrants to the US, let alone a shrinking Latin America.

Needless to say, much more immigrants will be required as the US natural growth (births minus deaths), plummeted from the healthy 2 million people in 1990 to 950,000 in 2018. If "only" 1 million immigrants were required to make the US to grow at its traditional 3 million people a year, now you'll need 2 million in a world with less and less available.

And again, Crawford keeps talking about "talent" while immigration en masse will be required to make the US population to grow in the future. It seems we are talking about completely different issues.
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  #59  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 1:41 PM
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
These countries already produce insignificant immigration numbers to the US, so they'll not be exporting more than now in any future that we'll see.
Again, that's a function of politics, not demand. If the U.S. wanted more, say, Brazilian migrants, it would receive more. The relative birthrates are irrelevant. Brazilian professional salaries and opportunities generally aren't comparable, so a share of the population would migrate if given an opportunity.
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
If the US wants to grow population, it needs to look inward and give child baring aged adults financial incentives to do so, more than currently.
LOL, no. If that were true, Europe would have the highest birthrates on the planet, and it has among the lowest. No wealthy country is gonna grow due to birthrates.
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  #60  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 1:43 PM
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Exactly, global population trends has everything to do with international migration patterns. A growing Latin America is already sending very few immigrants to the US, let alone a shrinking Latin America.
Because of politics. Has zero to do with growing/shrinking populations. Mexico/Central America are still growing quickly, BTW, yet immigration is plummeting.

South American migration is essentially irrelevent to U.S., excepting NYC and Miami. You meet very few South Americans in the U.S. outside those two cities.
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