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  #301  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 12:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Comrade View Post

The Democrats have seen huge gains in suburban counties, specifically in the NE and the South
That same shift is clear as day in chicagoland too.

1988: medium blue cook county surrounded by dark red collar counties.

2004 : dark blue cook county surrounded by medium red collar counties.

2016: dark blue cook county surrounded by medium and light blue collar counties.
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  #302  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 2:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
That same shift is clear as day in chicagoland too.

1988: medium blue cook county surrounded by dark red collar counties.

2004 : dark blue cook county surrounded by medium red collar counties.

2016: dark blue cook county surrounded by medium and light blue collar counties.
Chicago is an especially pronounced case: In 2008, Obama was the first Presidential Democrat to win DuPage, Kane, Kendall, and McHenry Counties. Ever.
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  #303  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 3:34 AM
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DuPage even voted for Goldwater in '64.
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  #304  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 3:39 AM
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^ it was one of the most reliably red places in the country for decades, but as the Republicans have continued down the path of exclusively playing to their white rural base, they say and do shit that causes too many educated suburban middle-roaders to turn away from them.

Dupage county is ground zero for that phenomenon. Biden carried it by a margin of +18.1. it wasn't even close to a contest.
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  #305  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 3:40 AM
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Democrats are now the party of the cultural and economic elites , and dupage and lake county are these elites stomping grounds

The people and their politics haven’t changed , but the parties have . Thus the move to red to blue
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  #306  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 4:21 AM
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Trump lost significant ground in very WWC, heavily Italian American Niagara County NY

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsCo/s...46965535019009
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  #307  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 4:23 AM
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Double checking DuPage County's voting history, I found the last Democrat that carried DuPage before Obama:



DuPage had voted for every single Republican candidate in the history of the party (including the Bull Moose in 1912) until 2008.
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  #308  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 4:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Democrats are now the party of the cultural and economic elites , and dupage and lake county are these elites stomping grounds

The people and their politics haven’t changed , but the parties have . Thus the move to red to blue
The Democrats do well with the more educated, which tends to lean more toward higher incomes. This is the distinction I think you meant with your comment.

I'd also put out there that the Democrats continue to be the party of the working class - it's just that the only working class people focus on are white working class folks, who overwhelmingly vote Republican.

But looking at the income breakdowns, you can clearly see the GOP still remains the party of the uber wealthy, while Biden did extremely well against lower-income and middle income Americans (regardless of race):

Biden won those who made fewer than $50,000 a year 55-44
Biden won those who made between $50,000 to $99,999 a year 57-42
Trump won those who made $100,000+ 54-42
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  #309  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 4:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Comrade View Post
The Democrats are the party of the educated, which tends to lean more toward higher incomes. This is the distinction I think you meant with your comment.

I'd also put out there that the Democrats continue to be the party of the working class - it's just that the only working class people focus on are white working class folks, who overwhelmingly vote Republican.

But looking at the income breakdowns, you can clearly see the GOP still remains the party of the uber wealthy, while Biden did extremely well against lower-income and middle income Americans (regardless of race):

Biden won those who made fewer than $50,000 a year 55-44
Biden won those who made between $50,000 to $99,999 a year 57-42
Trump won those who made $100,000+ 54-42
Are you citing the CNN exit poll or AP Votecast Survey?
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  #310  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 7:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
it's trending that way at the moment, but these things can always change.

as discussed earlier in this thread, the larger a metro area is, and the more it dominates its state, the more likely that state was to go blue in this election. not only does a larger metro area simply mean more suburban voters to counterbalance the rural vote, but those large metro area suburban voters also tend to be bluer compared to smaller metros (with some exceptions of course, like the austin vs. dallas/houston inversion in texas).

it's no coincidence that the 3 midwest states with the largest margins for biden are also home to the midwest's 3 largest metro areas: chicagoland, metro detroit, and the twin cities.

the ohio and missouri set-up of 2 or 3 medium-sized major metros seems to produce relatively fewer blue suburbanites to offset the small town/farm vote.

wisconsin is a bit of an outlier here in that it's not dominated by a single large metro, but the 1 - 2 punch of milwaukee and ultra-liberal (by midwest standards) madison was just barely enough to squeak out a very narrow biden win.


Midwest states - biden vs. trump margin:

IL (20 EV): +17.0
MN (10 EV): +7.1
MI (16 EV): +2.8
WI (10 EV): +0.6

OH (18 EV): +8.0
IA (6 EV): +8.3
KS (6 EV): +15.2
MO (10 EV): +15.3
IN (11 EV): +16.1
NE (5 EV): +19.1
SD (3 EV): +26.2
ND (3 EV): +33.3
I think what really keeps Ohio and Missouri from being blue states is demographics. They are both just generally older and whiter than the rest of the country. Also, Missouri would always be in play and much more purple state if significant chunks of the largest metro weren't in Kansas and Illinois. That's easily over a million people with more metropolitan sensibilities that could possibly swing an election.
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  #311  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 7:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I think this gets to the conflation of Trumpism and conservatism. KC metro is probably more conservative than STL metro, but STL metro appears to be a bit more Trumpist.

Trumpism doesn't align very well with conservatism. There's a high degree of irreligiosity and low levels of educational attainment, among other differences. Upper middle class "soccer mom/golf dad" exurbs are quite conservative, but hostile to Trumpism, while many working class white and Hispanic areas are economically liberal but very amenable to Trumpism.
It's really just demographics. Kansas City metro is historically more conservative but it also has a much larger Latino population where St. Louis has a relatively smallish Latino population to this day despite having a relatively large black urban population. St. Louis also has that old line blue collar feel in areas (which definitely would make it a breeding ground for Trump types who blame liberal elites for shutting down their local plant). Kansas City gives you a much more Denver or Nashville vibe in my opinion. Less industrial and much more white collar overall. Only thing preventing a KC boom is probably Missouri's generally horrific reputation in my opinion.
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  #312  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 10:05 AM
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Fantastic work!
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  #313  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 3:14 PM
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Missouri would always be in play and much more purple state if significant chunks of the largest metro weren't in Kansas and Illinois. That's easily over a million people with more metropolitan sensibilities that could possibly swing an election.
these things are always subject to change over time, but in this election, having all of STL's and KC's MSA out-of-state counties included in Missouri's results wouldn't have put a dent in Trump's decisive win in the show-me state.


STL's Metro East: (8 IL counties)

Madison - 56,845 - 75,272
St. Clair - 66,698 - 56,000
Macoupin - 7,313 - 16,058
Clinton - 4,459 - 14,264
Monroe - 2,275 - 14,046
Jersey - 2,956 - 8,699
Bond - 2,275 - 5,612
Calhoun - 674 - 2,043

TOTAL - 143,495 - 191,994

net votes for Trump: 48,499




KC's "Metro West": (5 KS counties)

Johnson - 177,925 - 151,280
Wyandotte - 35,566 - 18,512
Leavenworth - 13,753 - 21,378
Miami - 5,133 - 12,116
Linn - 863 - 3,940

TOTAL - 233,240 - 207,226

net votes for Biden: 26,014




net votes for trump from both STL & KC MSA out-of-state counties: 22,485




considering that trump won MO by 464,351 votes, and the fact that he won the 13 out-of-state counties in the STL and KC MSAs by 22,485 votes, it's safe to say that particular aspect of MO's two big metro areas was not a factor in the state's election outcome in this cycle.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 30, 2020 at 5:09 PM.
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  #314  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 3:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goat314 View Post
I think what really keeps Ohio and Missouri from being blue states is demographics.
Quote:
Originally Posted by goat314 View Post
It's really just demographics.
Well... yeah, of course it's demographics. What else could it be?

Demographics is the population... the people of a state... the electorate... the people who vote to determine their political representation...
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  #315  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2020, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Are you citing the CNN exit poll or AP VoteCast Survey?
CNN.

But they're an interesting comparison because CNN is far more favorable toward Trump in the Race demographics (their exit polls have Trump losing the Black vote 87-12, while the AP VoteCast has him losing it 90-8) but the income numbers are different. CNN has Biden winning, as I said, the $50,000-$99,999 demographic, but losing the 100,000+ - however, the AP VoteCast has them tied in the former and Biden winning the latter.
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  #316  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2020, 12:34 AM
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AP Votecast is more reliable.
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  #317  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2020, 2:46 AM
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Philadelphia and Pittsburgh form a fascinating contrast: Philadelphia swings as the suburbs move from deep red Rockefeller Republicans to the modern navy blue reservoir that flips the entire state. Meanwhile Pittsburgh goes from lunchpail-and-hard hat union Dems, to resonating with Trump's message...

I crunched the numbers for the current MSAs back to Nixon:

Philadelphia MSA
2020 - Biden +29.7%
2016 - Clinton +27.6%
2012 - Obama +29.0%
2008 - Obama +31.3%
2004 - Kerry +22.3%
2000 - Gore +23.9%
1996 - Clinton +24.4%
1992 - Clinton +16.0%

1988 - Bush +2.3%
1984 - Reagan +5.8%
1980 - Reagan +3.3%

1976 - Carter +8.8%
1972 - Nixon +13.3%

Pittsburgh MSA
2020 - Trump +2.3%
2016 - Trump +4.8%
2012 - Romney +1.3%

2008 - Obama +2.7%
2004 - Kerry +4.2%
2000 - Gore +8.1%
1996 - Clinton +11.5%
1992 - Clinton +21.5%
1988 - Dukakis +18.9%
1984 - Mondale +12.6%
1980 - Carter +5.4%
1976 - Carter +7.3%

1972 - Nixon +14.0%
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  #318  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2020, 3:25 AM
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^ fascinating.

Something interesting occurs between '92 and '96.

The Philly MSA majorly amps up +8.4 points over '92 for clinton's second run in '96 and has never looked back, SOLIDLY backing team blue ever since.

Meanwhile, over in the Pittsburgh MSA, Clinton loses 10 points from '92 to '96 as Pittsburgh begins its long slide down into the red zone, long before the rise of trumpism.

The same Bill Clinton ran in both '92 & '96, but PA's two big metros responded to him in radically divergent ways the 2nd time around.
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  #319  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2020, 3:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
^ fascinating.

Something interesting occurs between '92 and '96.

The Philly MSA majorly amps up +8.4 points over '92 for clinton's second run in '96 and has never looked back, SOLIDLY backing team blue ever since.

Meanwhile, over in the Pittsburgh MSA, Clinton loses 10 points from '92 to '96 as Pittsburgh begins its long slide down into the red zone, long before the rise of trumpism.

The same Bill Clinton ran in both '92 & '96, but PA's two big metros responded to him in radically divergent ways the 2nd time around.
Seems like a response to the Republican Revolution in the House and Newt Gingrich putting social conservatism front and center in the Republican Party. The Philadelphia suburbs are repelled -- but the blue collar workers in places like the Monongahela Valley are enticed...
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  #320  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2020, 5:49 AM
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Seems like a response to the Republican Revolution in the House and Newt Gingrich putting social conservatism front and center in the Republican Party. The Philadelphia suburbs are repelled -- but the blue collar workers in places like the Monongahela Valley are enticed...
You've also got the passage of NAFTA in 1994 and the beginnings of the internet revolution circa 1994-96. The service economy, based mainly in the largest cities, rapidly expands while the more rural manufacturing economy is increasingly outsourced. Blue collar workers see their livelihoods threatened, while the power of white collar workers increases, and that the Democrats are apparently fine with this outcome...

Even today, that arguably remains the case. Biden's plan to increase manufacturing is essentially the same as Clinton's, it would likely work but the resulting jobs will be fairly high skill positions in heavily automated factories. For undereducated low skill workers things are unlikely to improve. The Trump "plan" to cut environmental protections, minimum wages, and social care to the bare minimum could theoretically make American labor cheap enough preserve low skill positions, at least for a time, but at the cost of reducing the US to the status of a developing nation. But even traditional conservatives can some very big concerns about the idea of running the country like Pakistan or Brazil, as in places like that the government can be unstable and capricious with private property, which was probably the decisive factor in turning just about every area in the country which would not see a major benefit from preserving low skill manufacturing jobs against Trump.

Last edited by Will O' Wisp; Dec 1, 2020 at 6:07 AM.
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