The Megacity of Lagos, the future World's largest city - Impressions?

[Segun]

Has anybody here been to Lagos?

I see article after article projecting it to be the largest city in the World. In the close but far future, I see Africa gaining a pivotal position of Global power, if not the center of Global power. Dirt poor kids with access to the internet all day and nothing to do but learn + the strength and determination one has when pulling themselves up from a dangerous environment with less = a revolutionary change in thinking and application of knowledge and technology.

I'm very interested in this city, and know nothing about it, other than reports on pollution, poverty and crime. I've seen pictures that suggest there's more to this emerging powerhouse than they like to show. With that in mind, can anyone tell me about the city's urban geography (different sides/neighborhood usess), the social scene, and construction?

[10023]

Who’s they?

I have a former colleague / acquaintance who grew up there (she’s Nigerian-British), and have talked about it with the owner of a favourite (very high end) Nigerian restaurant near my office. Basically, everyone lives on Lagos Island or a couple adjacent ones (like Victoria which is sort of like a huge gated community), and outside of that it’s very poor (largely shantytowns that make Nairobi look like Paris) and traffic is horrendous.

It sounds not unlike Jakarta, where another person I know lived as an expat (pros: huge house and staff paid for by employer; cons: trips into town required armed bodyguard and bulletproof car to deter hijacking). But Lagos is probably less developed overall.

I’ve personally never been to West Africa (have been to places in the North, East and South), but it’s not high on my list because the climate wouldn’t agree with me and I don’t work in oil.

[Segun]

They being the media.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Segun

Has anybody here been to Lagos?

I see article after article projecting it to be the largest city in the World. In the close but far future, I see Africa gaining a pivotal position of Global power, if not the center of Global power. Dirt poor kids with access to the internet all day and nothing to do but learn + the strength and determination one has when pulling themselves up from a dangerous environment with less = a revolutionary change in thinking and application of knowledge and technology.

I'm very interested in this city, and know nothing about it, other than reports on pollution, poverty and crime. I've seen pictures that suggest there's more to this emerging powerhouse than they like to show. With that in mind, can anyone tell me about the city's urban geography (different sides/neighborhood usess), the social scene, and construction?

Why would Africa jump past the US, Europe, and Asia to become the "center of Global power"?

Those "dirt poor kids" don't have days full of nothing to do but surf the internet. Dirt poor kids have to work in places like Nigeria, or they don't eat.

[James Bond Agent 007]

They have street view for Lagos now:
https://www.google.com/maps/@6.45170...7i13312!8i6656

[Segun]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Why would Africa jump past the US, Europe, and Asia to become the "center of Global power"?

Many reasons, which I won't speak on here. IMO, Africans have the hardest workload of any World regions, the hardest conditions to recover from, the most obstacles to recover from, and some of the highest test scores and education levels (if not the highest), when put in places with resources. Corruption has to go however. Everything else is on point, especially work ethic.

But this is the last I will say on this. I tend to be on point with my predictions. 10 years ago on this forum I predicted the changeover from the Rock-N-Roll generation to the Hip Hop generation. President Trump using Hip Hop slang, Bernie using Public Enemy, Killer Mike, etc. But, I might be wrong. This is all I'm going to say on this. If you wish to know more, you'll have to contact me directly.

Back to Lagos.

[GWN]

Almost all of Lagos has had street view for a while now. Even in the poorest dirtiest parts of the city.

[dc_denizen]

Investments in Africa will likely deliver nice returns as the middle class there expands. Ignorant westerners that think of Africa as a charity case probably won’t see this opportunity. Not a bad idea

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Investments in Africa will likely deliver nice returns as the middle class there expands. Ignorant westerners that think of Africa as a charity case probably won’t see this opportunity. Not a bad idea

Oh, I completely agree. I wish the USA was more forward thinking like China in this regard. However, I don't think Africa will be the center of power in the world for hundreds of years, if ever.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Segun

Many reasons, which I won't speak on here. IMO, Africans have the hardest workload of any World regions, the hardest conditions to recover from, the most obstacles to recover from, and some of the highest test scores and education levels (if not the highest), when put in places with resources. Corruption has to go however. Everything else is on point, especially work ethic.

But this is the last I will say on this. I tend to be on point with my predictions. 10 years ago on this forum I predicted the changeover from the Rock-N-Roll generation to the Hip Hop generation. President Trump using Hip Hop slang, Bernie using Public Enemy, Killer Mike, etc. But, I might be wrong. This is all I'm going to say on this. If you wish to know more, you'll have to contact me directly.

Back to Lagos.

Yes, the geography for the vast majority of Africa is horrible. Very little good port locations and probably less navigable rivers.

" the hardest conditions to recover from"- At what point would they recover to? Recover, to me anyway, implies that we will get back to some point in history, which point is this?

I just think Africa will have considerable issues in the foreseeable future, for so many reasons. My dad has been robbed, twice, in Kenya and Djbouti...by policemen. Alright, maybe robbed isn't the right word, extorted would be more accurate, but the difference doesn't matter when your the one having to hand over cash to people with guns.

Those obvious issues, along with horrible geography are key restraints. However, there is PLENTY of room for growth, as the ceiling is so low right now. I just think it will never be a world power, that is all. The GDP of Africa is 2.5 trillion(1.2 billion people), compare this to just California, whose GDP is around 3 trillion(40 million people).

[JManc]

Best case scenario for Nigeria for the foreseeable future would be rising to a regional economic power but if the west is going to hand over the torch, it will be to Asia.

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Why would Africa jump past the US, Europe, and Asia to become the "center of Global power"?

Pretty simple, really.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ng-in-one-map/

[dc_denizen]

To be an economic power, you need disposable income...

Outside of china and se asia, most developing countries have amassed disposable income over the last 20 years by tapping the global financial markets. Large family owned politically connected firms borrow at low rates (thanks to the Feb and ECB) and spend on highrises, malls, luxury goods, etc. Meanwhile the government borrows globally to invest and spend on imported fuels, in poverty programs, roads, bridges etc. You see this in Turkey, India, Venezuela, Brazil, etc. All the while amassing a gigantic budget and current account deficit, since most of these countries don't offer products and services that are in demand by their trading partners/financers.

Problem is that growth in most of the developing world outside of SE Asia and China, and several resource economies like Angola and the gulf states, is based on this debt binge without the commenserate expansion in economic exchange with the rest of the world.

I don't see Nigeria being any different, unless the country can find some source of resources, products or services that the rest of the world needs. You might see a bunch of skyscrapers eventually though.

the end result is usually some kind of latin-america style debt and liquidity crisis, as the economy is eventually shut off from financial markets and living standards have to fall to balance the economy.

If anything a city in a more resource-rich country like Congo is more likely to be an 'economic power' than Lagos.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Pretty simple, really.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ng-in-one-map/

What point are you making? More people in the future automatically means more economic growth and therefore eventually becoming THE world economic power?

[10023]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

To be an economic power, you need disposable income...

Outside of china and se asia, most developing countries have amassed disposable income over the last 20 years by tapping the global financial markets. Large family owned politically connected firms borrow at low rates (thanks to the Feb and ECB) and spend on highrises, malls, luxury goods, etc. Meanwhile the government borrows globally to invest and spend on imported fuels, in poverty programs, roads, bridges etc. You see this in Turkey, India, Venezuela, Brazil, etc. All the while amassing a gigantic budget and current account deficit, since most of these countries don't offer products and services that are in demand by their trading partners/financers.

Problem is that growth in most of the developing world outside of SE Asia and China, and several resource economies like Angola and the gulf states, is based on this debt binge without the commenserate expansion in economic exchange with the rest of the world.

I don't see Nigeria being any different, unless the country can find some source of resources, products or services that the rest of the world needs. You might see a bunch of skyscrapers eventually though.

the end result is usually some kind of latin-america style debt and liquidity crisis, as the economy is eventually shut off from financial markets and living standards have to fall to balance the economy.

If anything a city in a more resource-rich country like Congo is more likely to be an 'economic power' than Lagos.

Nigeria is a major oil producer. And the Congo (Brazzaville or DRC) are among the most troubled states in Africa.

But you are right that Nigeria will struggle to improve living standards given its overly high birth rates.

[jtown,man]

According to Badrunner, high birth rates are the reason they will become an economic powerhouse.

[dc_denizen]

OOPS, i forgot oil Nigeria's oil.

anyhow growth does give a certain amount of power, if the middle class can expand somewhat.

look at india

[SFTransplant]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Pretty simple, really.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ng-in-one-map/

What a silly response. Population growth does not equal a rise in GDP, local resources, or infrastructure. If anything, the continued rapid growth of many African nations is a hindrance to development (both humanitarian and economical) because of the continued strain of what little resources are currently there to provide for people.

[liat91]

The population will expand strongly in Lagos, but equating that with center of world power is a stretch.

China will never lead the world, nor India or Africa. Not because they don’t have the ability to, but due to the global order established by the West. New York, Washington, London, Brussels and Paris saw the coming demographic dynamics a long time ago. English is the de facto global language and no one outside of China is going to deal with learning their non-alphabet.

One thing Africa has going for it is location and labor dividend. Unfortunately the timing is wrought. When Africa’s population is at a bulge, 30 years from now, automation and robotics will be in full force.

IMO opinion, the West’s biggest advantage with the rest of the world is it’s “almost meritocracy”. So much resource on this planet is wasted on ineptness based corruption. Even low fertility and small family size can’t seem to wipe clean the black hole of clan oriented corruption.

[BnaBreaker]

Unlike most other African cities, Lagos really has nothing in the way of traditional urban street life that I am aware of. Imagine Houston, if the vast majority of people were extremely poor, and literally everything was hidden behind a large concrete wall and a locked gate, and you may start to get a picture of what Lagos is like at street level.