Future of Phoenix and Tucson?

[Dariusb]

Buckeye Native was the inspiration of this thread based on a comment that was made in my thread about traffic since Covid 19. What's the relationship between Phoenix and Tucson? What's their future? Do you think that they will grow closer together one day and become more interconnected or is there just too much space between them? I haven't been to Tucson since 2013 or Phoenix since 1992 so it's been a hell of a long time. Are they anything alike or very different?

[hipster duck]

Never say never, but my guess is not for the foreseeable future.

Phoenix is still sprawling, but in the opposite direction - to the west, along AZ-303 and to the east in the Santan valley. I don't think that the I-10 corridor towards Tucson was ever a natural destination for residents or businesses, at least south of Sun Lakes.

This is different from the San Diego-LA I-5 corridor, which is desirable being along a string of established Pacific Coast towns, and would have been joined together with fairly dense sprawl a long time ago if not for Camp Pendleton.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Yeah, I don't see it happening anytime soon (nor should it). Like someone else said, most of Phoenix's (or more accurately, Buckeye/Goodyear/Avondale/Tolleson/Tonopah) sprawl is heading west or east/southeast (Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Apache Junction, San Tan Village).

Phoenix/Maricopa County (and the surrounding cities that comprise the Valley of the Sun, including parts of Pinal County) dominates the state (at least 2/3 of Arizona's total population lives somewhere in metro Phoenix). Even a place like Tucson is a relative afterthought except for the University of Arizona (and Arizona State is a better academic institution as of late). I live/work in Coconino County, AZ and the phrase most often heard around here among anyone who works in municipal government is derisively referring to The Valley as "The Great State of Maricopa"

[Dariusb]

I know that Mesa is a very large suburb. Is it also a major job center or do the majority of them work in Phoenix?

[Qubert]

Just to muddy the waters:

Why isn't Flagstaff a bigger deal? The climate is much more diverse, the landscape (IMHO) more beautiful and it's still relatively close to LV, SoCal relative to Phoenix.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Qubert

Just to muddy the waters:

Why isn't Flagstaff a bigger deal? The climate is much more diverse, the landscape (IMHO) more beautiful and it's still relatively close to LV, SoCal relative to Phoenix.

Don't people move to AZ because they like the heat, sun and golf? Flagstaff is snowy and kinda expensive. Probably not a lot of good jobs. AZ grows due to Californians fleeing high home prices, Mexicans fleeing economic chaos and Midwesterners fleeing winters.

Personally, I would much, much rather live in Flagstaff, but I'm definitely not the target demographic for AZ relocation.

[Dariusb]

Is Flagstaff growing healthily or not really?

[Buckeye Native 001]

Flagstaff already can't handle the number of people who live here. Housing prices are ridiculous and the economy is primarily service-based. The amount of snow we get surprises a lot of people (we're at an elevation of 7,000 feet) but we have the fortune of getting a couple of feet of snow one day, and then it'll be sunny and 45F the next. I prefer it to Midwestern winters because it's not six months of mostly damp and dreary weather.

We also have a little bit of a liberal streak that doesn't jive with the rest of Arizona. That is in part because of Northern Arizona University. Lots of Californians and Phoenicians come here for school and then leave after four years because of the nonexistent job market. They also have a tendency to not give a shit about the community while they're here but that's a problem in every college town.

Since the pandemic started, tourism is nonexistent so sales tax revenue has dried up. We're really hurting right now, and I don't see it getting better any time soon.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

Is Flagstaff growing healthily or not really?

Flagstaff is limited in its growth because its in a national forest. It makes new development slow and expensive to say the least.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

Buckeye Native was the inspiration of this thread based on a comment that was made in my thread about traffic since Covid 19. What's the relationship between Phoenix and Tucson? What's their future? Do you think that they will grow closer together one day and become more interconnected or is there just too much space between them? I haven't been to Tucson since 2013 or Phoenix since 1992 so it's been a hell of a long time. Are they anything alike or very different?

I dont suspect it will ever really happen. Phoenix and Tucson are 150 miles apart with lots of farm and open desert between them. Not to mention Reservations that will never be developed.

Before 2006/7 when massive exurban sprawl was at its peak they predicted sprawl going all the way to tucson, but I just dont see that happening unless pre Great Recession sprawl comes back into popularity.

Whats more likely are Maricopa, Casa Grande, Coolidge and Florence are going to act as their own semi-metro between the two.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

I know that Mesa is a very large suburb. Is it also a major job center or do the majority of them work in Phoenix?

Kind of like LA we have a number of major employment centers. Central and Downtown Phoenix is still the biggest concentration of employees but along the Camelback corridor, the price/101 corridor in Chandler and Tempe, Downtown Tempe itself, and Parts of scottsdale all act as major hubs of employment.

Its important to remeber that Phoenix was just the largest town in a sprawling flat aggricultural valley. Each of our suburbs were their own independent towns that grew into eachother instead of growth from the center outward.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

This is different from the San Diego-LA I-5 corridor, which is desirable being along a string of established Pacific Coast towns, and would have been joined together with fairly dense sprawl a long time ago if not for Camp Pendleton.

Its also important to remember that whole Phoenix and Tucson are fairly similar distance from eachother as LA and SD there are only about 6 million people between the two as opposed to SoCAl which has what? 22 million or something close to that?

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Its important to remeber that Phoenix was just the largest town in a sprawling flat aggricultural valley. Each of our suburbs were their own independent towns that grew into eachother instead of growth from the center outward.

This is true of most cities, the difference is that Phoenix didn't have the rail system to funnel all the growth to the center.

LA did have the rail system (Pacific Electric) but actively ripped it out during their period of greatest growth to focus on freeways.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by ardecila

This is true of most cities, the difference is that Phoenix didn't have the rail system to funnel all the growth to the center.

LA did have the rail system (Pacific Electric) but actively ripped it out during their period of greatest growth to focus on freeways.

We actually did have a fairly large Trolly system that was torn out at the same time.

I guess what I mean is Phoenix never really acted as the center of the metro until now, it was just the largest of several similarly sized towns, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, Glendale.

Each of them went from being small farm towns to sprawling suburban growth overnight in the 1960's and their sprawling new single family home neighborhoods grew into eachother with just as many people comuting to the cities of Mesa, Tempe, and scottsdale for work as the central city

Thats why our downtown is so small compared to what it should be, its the downtown of a mid-sized city in a sprawling region of millions. LA is the same with a downtown much smaller than its regional population would elicit. Its spread out into several competeing "centers" across the region.

[Yuri]

It seems Tucson slowed down a lot compared to previous decades, not far away to become stagnant.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Tucson's primary economic drivers are the University of Arizona and government/defense (Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Raytheon). It's always been considered an afterthought (if it's even considered at all) by most people living in metro Phoenix except for the UofA's rivalry with Arizona State University.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Don't people move to AZ because they like the heat, sun and golf? Flagstaff is snowy and kinda expensive. Probably not a lot of good jobs. AZ grows due to Californians fleeing high home prices, Mexicans fleeing economic chaos and Midwesterners fleeing winters.

Personally, I would much, much rather live in Flagstaff, but I'm definitely not the target demographic for AZ relocation.

Exactly. If I wanted to shovel snow I'd move to Wyoming or Montana, or maybe even just the CA Sierra, not northern AZ. I come to the southern part of the state to escape winter, not glory in it.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It seems Tucson slowed down a lot compared to previous decades, not far away to become stagnant.

Tucson is a big college town (U. of AZ) with some peripheral industries (Raytheon, Caterpillar, copper mining) that are highly cyclical and dependent to a large extent on commodity prices (which have lately been low) and government action (defense spending and infrastructure spending).

It also has a military base largely dedicated to an airplane, the A-10 Warthog, which the Pentagon keeps trying to eliminate (and Arizona politicians keep fighting to retain).

It's college base is also subject to government--state in this case--spending and in reddish-purple Arizona that has been tight. So basically it has no rapidly growing industries except, perhaps, optics* which is centered around the university.

*

The University of Arizona College of Optical Sciences, considered the largest institute for optics education in the United States, is dedicated to research and education in optics with an emphasis on engineering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Univer...tical_Sciences

As a result, U of AZ input has gone into a number of US optical programs like space telescopes, satellites and landers.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Tucson's primary economic drivers are the University of Arizona and government/defense (Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Raytheon). It's always been considered an afterthought (if it's even considered at all) by most people living in metro Phoenix except for the UofA's rivalry with Arizona State University.

I remember when it was consistently in the Best Places Rated Almanac. I always wondered about the business relationship between Phoenix and Tucson. Sometimes when cities their size are relatively close together they either work together to attract industry to the area or become very competitive against each other sparking a rivalry.

[Buckeye Native 001]

I don't think there's much of a rivalry, other than in college sports. Metropolitan Phoenix/Maricopa County has almost 5 million people and dominates state economics and politics. Even at around 1 million, Tucson can't compete with The Valley (because it really can't be stressed enough that it's not just Phoenix, but also the surrounding cities) and hasn't been able to for a long time. Aside from the Grand Canyon (3.5 hours north of The Valley), Arizona is Phoenix, and Phoenix is Arizona.