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Old Posted Dec 22, 2020, 11:49 PM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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July 1, 2020 Population Estimates - United States of America

The Census Bureau gave me my Christmas present: new 2020 population estimates for the U.S.A.! Wanted to share a screenshot I put together of the numbers and see if anyone spotted anything else interesting.

The theme of this year appears to be "trends cannot be stopped." States that bled last year worsened this year. States that grew big last year grew this year (albeit less). States that barely grew last year went into negative territory due to the natural increase decline, COVID-19 pandemic, and even worse immigration than what we had last year.

OVERVIEW
  • The Realm of the United States of America had an estimated population of 333,052,982, as of July 1, 2020. This represents an increase of 1,154,170 people since July 1, 2019.​ This number includes territories, but 4 of those 5 do not receive annual estimates (Puerto Rico does, but did not receive one this year).
  • This 1,154,170 increase is historically very low. The rule-of-thumb when I was young (early 2000s) was that the U.S. would add ~2.5 million per year (or 25 million per Census). This 1.15 million, on top of last year's 1,552,022 growth, represents significant loss of demographic momentum in the past 5 years.
  • The biggest hit continues to be the collapse in immigration. The U.S. added 595,000 immigrants last year, a historically catastrophic number. The decline began in 2017, the first year of the Trump Administration. With COVID, it's likely those numbers will be barbarous when the official stats are released: https://www.census.gov/content/censu...7487013683.jpg
  • The second hit has been declining births and increasing deaths. Net natural increase last year registered 957,000, the first time in four decades it dipped below 1 million.​ This year will be lower, though to what extent remains unclear. Perhaps COVID-19 has compelled a mini-baby boom.
  • The third hit is COVID-19. The U.S. lost approximately ~225,000 people due to the Coronavirus by July 1, 2020, according to studies not just of official tallies but excess deaths. Absent those deaths, the U.S. would have seen growth of 1.375 million, a decline from 2019, but not as significant.​
  • The Southwest and Southeast alone registered 1.07 million new residents, or 93% of the net increase.​
  • California, Illinois, and New York lost 280,000 people between them, while Florida and Texas's growth alone accounts for most of the U.S. net increase.​
  • The real stunner is Idaho. +38,000 in a state of 1.8 million is just incredible.​
  • A very interesting development is the 2019 numbers. They were almost all revised upwards. It gives me hope that the Census believes their estimates are too low.
  • As a reminder, the *OFFICIAL* Census 2020 figures, to be released next month (hopefully), are based on April 1, 2020, counts (not July 1, 2020, as these are. So we should be seeing 3 months of less growth in those official tallies. Which would mean ~329 million people (I'm hoping for a nice 330, so fingers crossed).





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  #2  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 12:32 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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Fascinating! And that's from pretty early in the Covid era.
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  #3  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 1:39 AM
Dariusb Dariusb is offline
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Interesting information. Strange seeing that California lost instead of gained.
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  #4  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 3:00 AM
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Using this tool from the U of Michigan, corresponding House changes.

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NC +1
NY -2
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1
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  #5  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 3:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Dariusb View Post
Interesting information. Strange seeing that California lost instead of gained.
The estimates were adjusted--that is the 'loss' reflected above. Census over census, California is still estimated to have gained population although that remains to be seen with the final results.
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  #6  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:19 AM
memph memph is offline
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So SC is one of the fastest growing states now? I must've missed the memo on when that happened...

The rest mostly make sense. Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona - the long time sunbelt boom states. Washington with Seattle's tech boom. Utah and Idaho with the high birth rates and relatively good economy. And then Delaware... I guess that's the tax haven status plus some suburban spillover from Philadelphia?
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  #7  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:32 AM
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xzmattzx xzmattzx is offline
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Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
The real stunner is Idaho. +38,000 in a state of 1.8 million is just incredible.​
Delaware's growth is not that far behind, and sticks out in the Northeast section as second-biggest by raw numbers, only behind Virginia, with 8-10 times the population.

Idaho's one-year growth: 1.0211
Delaware's one-year growth: 1.0103

For perspective, here's some other high-growth states:
Florida's one-year growth: 1.0112
Texas' one-year growth: 1.0129
Colorado's one-year growth: 1.0085
Utah's one-year growth: 1.0145
Nevada's one-year growth: 1.0153

Delaware's growth is mainly due to the burgeoning retirement area, Sussex County. It's been off the radar for a couple decades, first just attracting northern Delawareans to the other end of the state where they used to go to the beach for the weekends in the summer, then progressing to people from the DC area also retiring at the beach, since coastal Delaware is their beach place too. But now it's just beginning to get national prominence. I don't remember the subject of the story in full, but some political article I was reading was discussing retirement places and migration patterns in the US, mentioning the Carolinas, Florida, and Texas, and putting coastal Delaware in the same breath. This was not a Biden thing, either. Long story short, Delaware is the main place going against the general trends in the Northeast.
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  #8  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:40 AM
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xzmattzx xzmattzx is offline
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Originally Posted by memph View Post
So SC is one of the fastest growing states now? I must've missed the memo on when that happened...

The rest mostly make sense. Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona - the long time sunbelt boom states. Washington with Seattle's tech boom. Utah and Idaho with the high birth rates and relatively good economy. And then Delaware... I guess that's the tax haven status plus some suburban spillover from Philadelphia?
Sorry to say this to you, but you did mess the memo on South Carolina. South Carolina is the new North Carolina. People are retiring there. It's not just at the beach; people are retiring to places like Greenville, which has all four seasons but a short winter, and has a quiet, suburban feel, but also has a very nice urban area. There's the best of both worlds in many ways with a place like Greenville.

Delaware does not have much Philadelphia spillover. Wilmington and north are not growing much at all. Everything is happening south of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal ("below the canal", as we say it). The biggest growth is in eastern Sussex County, near the beaches. The big growth areas are in/near Lewes, Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, Bethany Beach, Fenwick Island, Ocean View, and Millville. This is the retirement area, and it's big business here. The secondary growth areas are between Wilmington/Newark and Dover: Middletown, Townsend, Smyrna, etc. Some of that may be Philadelphia, but a lot of it is Wilmington/Newark's spillover farther and farther south (relatively speaking, for a small metro area).
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  #9  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 6:29 AM
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The Midwest continues to stagnate with the exception of Indiana and Minnesota. What do these states need to do to attract more people and businesses?

I’ve been hearing it for the past decade but these figures show how much Utah and Idaho are growing. Colorado growth is slowing while Utah is picking up. Decent growth in Arizona and Nevada as well, surprising to see New Mexico with such low numbers.
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  #10  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 3:41 PM
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The Midwest continues to stagnate with the exception of Indiana and Minnesota. What do these states need to do to attract more people and businesses?
Become warm and sunny. The Northeast is almost just as bad as the Great Lakes. If Virginia were categorized with the southeast it would be more apparent, since that state accounts for more than 1/3 of the population growth in the northeast since 2010.
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  #11  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:21 PM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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Become warm and sunny. The Northeast is almost just as bad as the Great Lakes. If Virginia were categorized with the southeast it would be more apparent, since that state accounts for more than 1/3 of the population growth in the northeast since 2010.
Most of the growth in Virginia isn't in the warm and sunny parts though. The state's growth engine is Northern Virginia. The fastest growing county (Loudoun) is at the same latitude as Southern New Jersey, and has a similar climate to central Pennsylvania.

If anything, the warm and sunny parts like Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads, Southside, and Appalachia are the slowest growing.
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  #12  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:26 PM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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The estimates were adjusted--that is the 'loss' reflected above. Census over census, California is still estimated to have gained population although that remains to be seen with the final results.
The -69,352 loss excludes the revision. With the revision decline included, California lost -144,145 people. In other words, California's population in this release is 144,145 people lower than the December 2019 release, of which 69,352 is population decline.
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  #13  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:28 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Become warm and sunny. The Northeast is almost just as bad as the Great Lakes. If Virginia were categorized with the southeast it would be more apparent, since that state accounts for more than 1/3 of the population growth in the northeast since 2010.
This is my concern. The Midwest has a huge hill to climb to attract people, and it will take a lot of pragmatic maneuvering to get some momentum back. Piss of progressives with schemes to attract business and get the state finances on track, piss off conservatives investing in things like better public education and transit. I don’t think there is political will in places like my home state (IL) so I think the decline will continue unabated. At least the northeast had lots to offer in the way of natural beauty to make up for the shit weather.
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  #14  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:28 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Most of the growth in Virginia isn't in the warm and sunny parts though. The state's growth engine is Northern Virginia.

If anything, the warm and sunny parts like Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads, Southside, and Appalachia are the slowest growing.
Yes, Virginia's growth is obviously due to proximity to D.C. My point was that Virginia is skewing the numbers for the northeast (and MD too, for that matter). Virginia and Maryland account for half of the northeast's growth since 2010, but account for just 1/5 of the northeast's population.
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  #15  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:39 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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This is my concern. The Midwest has a huge hill to climb to attract people, and it will take a lot of pragmatic maneuvering to get some momentum back. I don’t think there is political will in places like my home state (IL) so I think the decline will continue unabated. At least the northeast had lots to offer in the way of natural beauty to make up for the shit weather.
Yes, agreed. The major cities in the Midwest need to shut off the tap on sprawl, and make massive investments on transit infrastructure. But watching some of the decisions that political leaders have made in the Midwest over the past couple of decades has been like watching execs at zombie companies that are not able to adjust to new competition. It's a different political mindset than the northeast.
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  #16  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 4:42 PM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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Originally Posted by Handro View Post
This is my concern. The Midwest has a huge hill to climb to attract people, and it will take a lot of pragmatic maneuvering to get some momentum back. I don’t think there is political will in places like my home state (IL) so I think the decline will continue unabated. At least the northeast had lots to offer in the way of natural beauty to make up for the shit weather.
Michigan and Wisconsin do have lots of natural beauty they can leverage. Places like Door County, the Apostle Islands, and Traverse City should be leveraging their natural beauty to bring in more outdoorsy, work from home types.

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan is another area that has not been marketed well.

There's no denying that the Great Lakes is in trouble demographically. The oldest Baby Boomers started retiring in 2011, and the oldest Baby Boomers won't begin retiring until 2029. So we're in the middle point of an accelerating exodus of older folks to the South. Baby Boomers who stay in the region will start dying off en masse by 2040. So we're 20 years away from another demographic cliff, and the Great Lakes (and Northeast) are disproportionally impacted.

But that trend is inescapable and the only solutions are: (a) international immigration (which the region has an aversion to) or (b) attract young people, which requires providing something of value, most likely high-paying corporate jobs.

The Northeast has figured this out (look at Boston's biosciences, New York's financials and entertainment, Philadelphia's telecoms and chemicals, Pittsburgh's healthcare or Washington's tech/defense sectors). The Great Lakes needs to copy. It seems the Rust Belt keeps waiting for de-industrialization or de-globalization to hit, and it never arrives. Even Trump's work to destroy the supply chain dependence on China has simply shifted manufacturing to Southeast Asia. Reshoring and repatriation have been duds (look at all those promised plants like Foxconn Wisconsin that always fall through).

The Midwest needs to stop waiting for industry to come back. It won't. They need to reinvent themselves.

Ironically, the only state that has done well in creating a modern business ecosystem (Illinois) is struggling demographically due to other issues (corruption, high taxes, local mismanagement, crime, pension liabilities, Downstate Republicans fleeing to Missouri or Indiana).

Weather is absolutely a factor. But Minnesota shows that weather is not determinative if a State can provide a good, affordable life with high-paying jobs to young people.
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Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:26 PM
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Sorry to say this to you, but you did mess the memo on South Carolina. South Carolina is the new North Carolina. People are retiring there. It's not just at the beach; people are retiring to places like Greenville, which has all four seasons but a short winter, and has a quiet, suburban feel, but also has a very nice urban area. There's the best of both worlds in many ways with a place like Greenville.

Delaware does not have much Philadelphia spillover. Wilmington and north are not growing much at all. Everything is happening south of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal ("below the canal", as we say it). The biggest growth is in eastern Sussex County, near the beaches. The big growth areas are in/near Lewes, Rehoboth Beach, Dewey Beach, Bethany Beach, Fenwick Island, Ocean View, and Millville. This is the retirement area, and it's big business here. The secondary growth areas are between Wilmington/Newark and Dover: Middletown, Townsend, Smyrna, etc. Some of that may be Philadelphia, but a lot of it is Wilmington/Newark's spillover farther and farther south (relatively speaking, for a small metro area).
I surmise a lot of the growth in Delaware is retirement. I looked there when I considered retirement but have ended up in south Florida. Delaware is convenient to DC/Philly/NYC, has four seasons but less harsh winters because of the Atlantic Ocean and bays (which many people still prefer), has reasonable housing prices (especially compared to NY and DC), and favorable taxes (no sales tax and real estate taxes are between 0.5% and 1%). A $500K home in Sussex County pays real estate taxes of around $3K, and you can get a lot of house if you buy a few miles away from the beach, where there is ton of development.
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Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:30 PM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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I surmise a lot of the growth in Delaware is retirement. I looked there when I considered retirement but have ended up in south Florida. Delaware is convenient to DC/Philly/NYC, has four seasons but less harsh winters because of the Atlantic Ocean and bays (which many people still prefer), has reasonable housing prices (especially compared to NY and DC), and favorable taxes (no sales tax and real estate taxes are between 0.5% and 1%). A $500K home in Sussex County pays real estate taxes of around $3K, and you can get a lot of house if you buy a few miles away from the beach, where there is ton of development.
Definitely. Here's growth from 2010-2019:

New Castle County (Wilmington and suburbs): +3.8%
Kent County (Dover and adjacent towns): +11.4%
Sussex County (Beaches and dozens of smaller rural towns): +18.8%

The interesting thing is that Worcester County, Maryland, just south of Sussex, only grew by +1.6%, even though it has a similar makeup (beach resorts like Ocean City, retirement towns like Ocean Pines, natural sites like Assateague Island National Seashore, lots of small rural towns like Berlin, Snow Hill, and Pocomoke City). It goes to show how important state lines are in demographic dispersion.
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Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 5:39 PM
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Yeah, the Northeast at least has high wages and real estate prices which suggests that the lack of population growth has a lot to do with difficulties in building new reasonably priced housing.

Despite the supposed exodus of retirees to the South, it isn't causing the median age in those states to be any higher than in the Great Lakes, and at least in the Southeast, you can't even explain that with birth rates because the birth rates in the Southeast and Great Lakes are pretty similar. So clearly young people are making the move as well, presumably for more economically driven reasons.

I'm not saying climate isn't a factor, but it can still be overcome if the conditions are right. Like migrations from Southern Ontario and Atlantic Canada to the Northern Prairies (Edmonton, Saskatoon, Fort McMurray) when that region is in a boom cycle represent facing significantly colder winters. The difference between Atlantic Canada/Southern Ontario winters and Northern Prairies winters is pretty similar to the difference between the Great Lakes and Southeast.

The ND/SD/NE/MT/WY are able to experience boom cycles too, despite having winters that are harsher than the Great Lakes imo.
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  #20  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 7:00 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by xzmattzx View Post

Idaho's one-year growth: 1.0211
Delaware's one-year growth: 1.0103

For perspective, here's some other high-growth states:
Florida's one-year growth: 1.0112
Texas' one-year growth: 1.0129
Colorado's one-year growth: 1.0085
Utah's one-year growth: 1.0145
Nevada's one-year growth: 1.0153
Arizona's 1 year growth Rate is 1.0178 130k from July 2019-July 2020 1.1 Million new residents since 2010 6.3 million to 7.4 Million and that rate looks only to increase with even more people likely to leaving Cali in 2021

Just saying
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