How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City?

[10023]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It is obvious because there is no other event in 2020 that would cause deaths from any cause to spike by 20% year-over-year.

Excess deaths = total deaths in 2020 subtracted by total deaths in 2019. Total death counts for all states is available on the CDC's website through September of 2020.

There should be some natural increase in deaths from 2019 to 2020 based on population growth. There is also normal annual variation.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 10023

There should be some natural increase in deaths from 2019 to 2020 based on population growth. There is also normal annual variation.

Florida had 4.5% more total deaths in January 2020 than it did in January of 2019. Florida had 30% more total deaths than in August 2020 than it did in August 2019.

[10023]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Florida had 4.5% more total deaths in January 2020 than it did in January of 2019. Florida had 30% more total deaths than in August 2020 than it did in August 2019.

Now show me from March 2020 to March 2021 by month, against a last 3 year average (not just 2019), adjusted for population growth.

One factor is that 2019-20 was a very mild flu season, so it wasn’t a reference level of deaths.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 10023

Now show me from March 2020 to March 2021 by month, against a last 3 year average (not just 2019), adjusted for population growth.

One factor is that 2019-20 was a very mild flu season, so it wasn’t a reference level of deaths.

You can look it up yourself when they release the figures, but not sure what you don't get. Nothing short of a major catastrophic event would cause such a drastic swing in deaths year-over-year. And August isn't even flu season.

[JManc]

Last and this year's flu seasons were stunted by measures take for Covid. People started wearing masks, social distancing and washing their hands as early as February '20.

[sopas ej]

And I don't know about you guys, but ever since I started wearing face masks, even outside, my allergies don't seem as bad. Just saying.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

And I don't know about you guys, but ever since I started wearing face masks, even outside, my allergies don't seem as bad. Just saying.

Same. I did a lot of long distance biking last summer and noticed a huge difference between when my face was and was not covered.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Same. I did a lot of long distance biking last summer and noticed a huge difference between when my face was and was not covered.

Yes, when I went hiking outside of Ojai last month, I had no issues with allergies. And I'm so used to wearing face masks (sometimes I even double it up when I know I'll be among more crowds) that I have no issues with breathing while constantly walking uphill or even light jogging.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by 10023

How are you calculating excess deaths? And how can you say this is “obvious” (which has no scientific basis)?

You’re joking, right?

In Western countries Covid excess deaths is something unheard since WWII. In Britain or Italy, excess deaths due Covid is much higher than they’ve registered in WWII, where their 300k casualties was distributed over 5 years.

You find it’s cool to downplay the disease, but you cannot go against facts. In several countries it’s the most important mark in their demographic history. In Brazil, by far, the largest year-to-year death variation in recorded history. In the US, also the largest, bigger than the Civil War.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

You’re joking, right?

In Western countries Covid excess deaths is something unheard since WWII. In Britain or Italy, excess deaths due Covid is much higher than they’ve registered in WWII, where their 300k casualties was distributed over 5 years.

You find it’s cool to downplay the disease, but you cannot go against facts. In several countries it’s the most important mark in their demographic history. In Brazil, by far, the largest year-to-year death variation in recorded history. In the US, also the largest, bigger than the Civil War.

You're not wrong, but the passing of 300k senior citizens is not the same as 300k teenagers.

[the urban politician]

^ I was just going to say something similar.

People keep comparing this to war. Don’t get me wrong, we can all agree that all death is tragic.

But most normal people can also agree that the death of hundreds of thousands of people on their teens and twenties is a much different level of tragedy compared to the death of hundreds of thousands of elderly, many of whom are in nursing homes.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

You're not wrong, but the passing of 300k senior citizens is not the same as 300k teenagers.

I’m talking numbers here. The number of deaths move very smoothly year after year, 2% at most, Covid made it go up to 10%, 20%, a variation never seen in recorded history in several countries.

None of those people would have died this year, but within 2, 5, 10 or 20 years. That’s why we talk about “excess deaths”. Brazil had 200k extra deaths in 2020, the UK 120k, the US 400k, Italy 100k. Demographically speaking, that’s a huge phenomenon.

Regarding age, there are plenty of people in the 50’s or 60’s dying. Today a Brazilian Senator, 58 y/o, passed despite having the very best treatment available.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ I was just going to say something similar.

People keep comparing this to war. Don’t get me wrong, we can all agree that all death is tragic.

But most normal people can also agree that the death of hundreds of thousands of people on their teens and twenties is a much different level of tragedy compared to the death of hundreds of thousands of elderly, many of whom are in nursing homes.

War deaths are hardly all teenagers unless you intentionally limit your data to combat casualties. Most deaths in wars are civilians and include all ages and sexes—all demographics with the most vulnerable usually taking the worst hits. In WW II, starvation and disease wiped out huge numbers of European and east Asian seniors.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Still isn’t a good comparison, don’t you think? That study is comparing two counties to one city/county and a metro area. If population density matters, just compare SF ( most densely populated major city/county in CA) to Miami ( most densely populated major city in FL, but I don’t know if Miami-Dade is the most densely populated county. Maybe it is.)

I don’t want to give DeSantis too much credit but if that data is accurate by any means, it shows that the stricter lockdowns are only marginally helpful depending on the place. The fact that FL did not become a complete disaster with cases should be studied even more.

In Florida, mask wearing has been universal, at least in South Florida. I have never, not even once, seen a maskless person since late Feb last year in any store or indoor facility outside of a bar or restaurant. It was a bit of a culture shock when I went to Austin over Christmas and saw a few maskless people wandering grocery stores. For example, when Texas lifted their mask mandate, locals were up in arms at the stores that still required masks. Florida lifted their mask mandate way back in early October but 100% of stores still required them, and still do to this day. Moral of the story, masks work. Basically Florida proves when mask wearing is universal, lockdowns are totally unnecessary.

[jd3189]

^^^ Thanks for sharing. I did notice back in late December that most people that I encountered in the Treasure Coast had masks on.

[hauntedheadnc]

Originally Posted by dave8721

In Florida, mask wearing has been universal, at least in South Florida. I have never, not even once, seen a maskless person since late Feb last year in any store or indoor facility outside of a bar or restaurant. It was a bit of a culture shock when I went to Austin over Christmas and saw a few maskless people wandering grocery stores. For example, when Texas lifted their mask mandate, locals were up in arms at the stores that still required masks. Florida lifted their mask mandate way back in early October but 100% of stores still required them, and still do to this day. Moral of the story, masks work. Basically Florida proves when mask wearing is universal, lockdowns are totally unnecessary.

Up in Lady Lake and The Villages though, you'll usually get the shit eye from everyone when you are wearing your mask, indoors or out.

[iheartthed]

According to the CDC, COVID killed 7,351 people aged 18 - 40 in the U.S. as of March 17, 2021. According to Wikipedia, there have been 6,996 U.S. military casualties due to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined. The Iraq War lasted 8 years, and the Afghanistan War is entering its 20th year, versus one year of COVID.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

According to the CDC, COVID killed 7,351 people aged 18 - 40 in the U.S. as of March 17, 2021. According to Wikipedia, there have been 6,996 U.S. military casualties due to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined. The Iraq War lasted 8 years, and the Afghanistan War is entering its 20th year, versus one year of COVID.

Iheart, do you have data for people between 40-60? That age bracket is 40-20 year below the US life expectancy.

Regardless how people few about Covid, if you are Bolsonaro type or a person panicking about the pandemic, the fact is, demographically speaking, it's the biggest event in the West since WWII or in most countries, since 19th century. It completely deformed the death curve for 2020 and in Brazil, even the 2021 one is already compromised.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Iheart, do you have data for people between 40-60? That age bracket is 40-20 year below the US life expectancy.

Regardless how people few about Covid, if you are Bolsonaro type or a person panicking about the pandemic, the fact is, demographically speaking, it's the biggest event in the West since WWII or in most countries, since 19th century. It completely deformed the death curve for 2020 and in Brazil, even the 2021 one is already compromised.

Here is the source that shows U.S. deaths by age brackets: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

It has killed nearly 100,000 people in the 40 - 64 age bracket. Obviously, that is skewed to the 50+ side, but the disease has killed nearly 15,000 people aged 40 - 49 year old alone. So COVID-19 is likely a top 5 cause of death for that group, if not top 3.

[JManc]

Covid has highlighted just how unhealthy of a populous we are. The vast majority of Covid deaths and intubations are those with co-morbities; i.e. obesity and related illnesses.