2019 Population Estimate of Canadian Metropolitan Areas

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

what would Melbourne look like without chinese real estate capital inflows though?

You have a really warped view of he world. Melbourne is a bustling metro of 5 million that's in rapid ascension. Why is it if cities outside the US prosper you always think it's nothing they've done. Has it never occurred to you the Melbourne booms because they do a myriad things exceedingly well? Melbourne is NOT dependent on off shore money even though you insist on painting it like that.

Makes me wonder what kind of news you watch. Can't be anything much better than a tabloid.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

Montréal has a lower GDP than Boston or Philadelphia but our population growth is a lot higher than these 2 cities combined. +176k since 2016-2017, July 1st.

Quebec added 100k people last year alone.

Montreal's recent growth has been a pleasant surprise. By mid century (30 years from now) I wouldn't be surprised if Montreal became more populous than both Boston and Philadelphia.

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by isaidso

You have a really warped view of he world. Melbourne is a bustling metro of 5 million that's in rapid ascension. Why is it if cities outside the US prosper you always think it's nothing they've done. Has it never occurred to you the Melbourne booms because they do a myriad things exceedingly well? Melbourne is NOT dependent on off shore money even though you insist on painting it like that.

Makes me wonder what kind of news you watch. Can't be anything much better than a tabloid.

Define rapid ascension. Are there new Melbourne based companies conquering world markets? Is Melbourne at the forefront of science and r&d?

And the idea that China doesn’t affect Melbourne and Sydney property prices and investment must be news to the Australians.

[Atlriser]

dc_denizen - your comments are annoying, condescending and 1-dimensional. They are useless just as mine here is, but I still had to say it as everything you’ve written in this thread is just a waste of energy reading. Sorry but true!

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Define rapid ascension. Are there new Melbourne based companies conquering world markets? Is Melbourne at the forefront of science and r&d?

Rio Tinto is busy devastating the planet, so there's that.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Define rapid ascension. Are there new Melbourne based companies conquering world markets? Is Melbourne at the forefront of science and r&d?

And the idea that China doesn’t affect Melbourne and Sydney property prices and investment must be news to the Australians.

No one said it has no effect but it's a massive leap to take that then insinuate that Melbourne's fortunes are tied to that. Melbourne has a strong well diversified economy and one of the most attractive cities in the world in which to live. Go look for yourself.

And it is in rapid ascension in every way imaginable. In the US, only Dallas adds more people than Melbourne. To put it simplistically, Melbourne is Australia's 'Toronto'. The same fundamentals fueling Toronto are at play in Melbourne. Melbourne is going to be a juggernaut 1-2 generations from now.

[isaidso]

Canada's 10 fastest growing CMAs

1- Kitchener–Waterloo: 2.8%
2- London: 2.3%
3- Halifax: 2.2%
4- Saskatoon: 2.2%
5- Edmonton: 2.1%
6- Ottawa: 2.1%
7- Lethbridge: 2.1%
8- Calgary: 2.1%
9- Abbotsford–Mission: 2.0%
10- Toronto: 2.0%


The Statistics Canada release on Thursday suggests that smaller metros are starting to see spill over growth from the big metros. The 2 fastest growing CMAs in Canada 2018-2019 were KW and London. Much of their growth is likely due to an exodus of families out of Toronto. Toronto real estate prices are starting to push people out. KW also benefits from its strength in tech.

Despite registering a net population loss of 47,838 to other areas of Canada Toronto still managed 2% population growth. It's not a flood of people leaving but it's a worrying trend. Affordable housing is Toronto's achilles' heel. The fast growth of Abbotsford is likely spill over from unaffordable Vancouver. Overall, Canada's 35 CMAs saw population growth of 1.7% and are now home to 26,952,447 people. Population growth outside of these 35 CMAs was 0.6%.

Lastly, I never thought I'd see the day when Halifax was the 3rd fastest growing metro in the country. That's very impressive for an east coast city. Most people wrote off the Maritimes as a region facing demographic implosion just 10 years ago. Not only did Halifax grow 3rd fastest but Charlottetown (likely a future CMA) grew even faster 2018-2019: +2.44%.

[Yuri]

It seems Montreal is rebounding, closing the gap against Toronto and Vancouver.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It seems Montreal is rebounding, closing the gap against Toronto and Vancouver.

Though Toronto is not really catchable for Montréal, and Montréal is too far out of range for Vancouver.

1-2-3 will likely stay the same.

[Razor]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Though Toronto is not really catchable for Montréal, and Montréal is too far out of range for Vancouver.

1-2-3 will likely stay the same.

I agree..Calgary really went gangbusters as well these past few decades! They opened a bit of a gap between Edmonton and Ottawa. Like a small city or substantial multi phased subdivision sized gap..The 3 were closer before, and I think that the 4-6 placements will remain for awhile..Heck, I vaguely remember when Vancouver was Calgary sized.That era when the Vancouver Canucks had their hockey stick uniforms and Don Lever circa mid 70's Ha.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Though Toronto is not really catchable for Montréal, and Montréal is too far out of range for Vancouver.

1-2-3 will likely stay the same.

Toronto isn't as far ahead as you would expect an undisputed primary city to be. It's trending in the right direction, for sure, but it doesn't seem to be a foregone conclusion yet.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Toronto isn't as far ahead as you would expect an undisputed primary city to be. It's trending in the right direction, for sure, but it doesn't seem to be a foregone conclusion yet.

If you mean population-wise, statistical agency predictions generally point to Greater Toronto having around 10 million in 2040. Greater Montreal is forecast to be just over 5 million around 2040.

Though I must say that of late Montreal has been reaching demographic milestones a bit faster than predicted. (This is quite likely true for Toronto too, though I haven't heard it personally.)

Even so, Greater Montreal at 6-7 million would still be some distance behind Toronto.

Something big would have to change in terms of Toronto's and Montreal's demographic evolutions and I don't really see that happening.

At the moment Toronto is still growing more than Montreal in sheer numbers (and this is not expected to change) so the gap between the two should continue to widen.

Now, in terms of the non-numeric intangibles related to "undisputed primary city" status, I don't think Toronto will ever be that type of city for Canada as a whole. I gave some of the reasons in that other thread - above or below this one.

Toronto could become (as is forecast) twice as big as Montreal but the latter would still remain the undisputed primate city for Quebec/French Canada. Similarly to how when you're in French-speaking Switzerland, the big city is clearly Geneva and its big brother city psychologically is even arguably Paris, when in fact there is a city within the same country (Zurich) that is twice Geneva's size.

Also, the Anglo-Canada that Toronto "rules" (sic) is very large, with the population scattered over an impossibly huge area almost archipelago-style, all of which makes it kind of polycentric. So sure Toronto is the king but other smaller cities (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Halifax, etc.) have what one might call regional fiefdoms as well. And of course NYC and LA also can play the metropolis role for Anglo-Canada (often in Toronto's place) for matters of culture, media and entertainment.

[Yuri]

And things get harder for Montreal, as Toronto gets bigger, it will eventually engulf other CMAs in southern Ontario while there's nothing around Montreal.

In any case, for the first time since the 1970's, Montreal growth rates are once again very close to Toronto's.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

And things get harder for Montreal, as Toronto gets bigger, it will eventually engulf other CMAs in southern Ontario while there's nothing around Montreal.

In any case, for the first time since the 1970's, Montreal growth rates are once again very close to Toronto's.

They can be added to Greater Toronto's population for the purposes of our discussion here but Statistics Canada refuses to merge CMAs and so places like Oshawa and Hamilton, which would add over 1 million people to Toronto's CMA (and logically they should probably be part of it) won't ever be included - unless of course the rules get changed.

The same goes for other CMAs further afield from Toronto like Barrie and Kitchener-Waterloo.

If you look at the Montreal area on a map the cities that might be added are smaller, but they're not CMAs so they're more ripe for the picking, so to speak.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...GC=462&TOPIC=1

The biggest population that could be added (though I don't know or if this is even likely) is due east (where you see "aut" and "route 138") and is Granby-Bromont. It has about 85,000 people.

Just above that (near "aut. 20") is St-Hyacinthe which has 60,000 people.

Then going west you have Sorel-Tracy near the river which has 40,000 people.

And across the river going west you have Joliette with about 50,000 people.

Hypothetically all of these could eventually be added to Montreal's CMA, though it still would not bring it close to Toronto's CMA.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

If you mean population-wise, statistical agency predictions generally point to Greater Toronto having around 10 million in 2040. Greater Montreal is forecast to be just over 5 million around 2040.

Though I must say that of late Montreal has been reaching demographic milestones a bit faster than predicted. (This is quite likely true for Toronto too, though I haven't heard it personally.)

Even so, Greater Montreal at 6-7 million would still be some distance behind Toronto.

Something big would have to change in terms of Toronto's and Montreal's demographic evolutions and I don't really see that happening.

At the moment Toronto is still growing more than Montreal in sheer numbers (and this is not expected to change) so the gap between the two should continue to widen.

Now, in terms of the non-numeric intangibles related to "undisputed primary city" status, I don't think Toronto will ever be that type of city for Canada as a whole. I gave some of the reasons in that other thread - above or below this one.

Toronto could become (as is forecast) twice as big as Montreal but the latter would still remain the undisputed primate city for Quebec/French Canada. Similarly to how when you're in French-speaking Switzerland, the big city is Geneva and the big brother city psychologically is even arguably Paris, when in fact there is a city within the same country (Zurich) that is twice Geneva's size.

The sphere of influence of Montréal in southern Quebec goes a lot farther than we think. The metropolitan area will grow faster in the future by annexing its perimetropolitain regional county municipalities. Greater Montreal loses approximately 7,000 to 10,000 people per year in its migratory exchanges with its surrounding cities. All regional county municipalities surrounding the Metropolitan area have some sort of commuting patterns that are directly influenced by the core city (Montréal). The total population of the extended metro region is already above 4.8M, as shown by a Montreal Metropolitan Community document about urban sprawl. The extended region covers an area of approximately 13,000 km², or 5,020 mi².

If we take that the extended region adds about 70,000 people/year, it will take less than 20 years to hit 6 million. I would not be surprised if the Quebec government decides to increase the total number of immigrants over the next decade to fetch between 80,000 and 100,000 immigrants annually.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

The sphere of influence of Montréal in southern Quebec goes a lot farther than we think. The metropolitan area will grow faster in the future by annexing its perimetropolitain regional county municipalities. Greater Montreal loses approximately 7,000 to 10,000 people per year in its migratory exchanges with its surrounding cities. All regional county municipalities surrounding the Metropolitan area have some sort of commuting patterns that are directly influenced by the core city (Montréal). The total population of the extended metro region is already above 4.8M, as shown by a Montreal Metropolitan Community document about urban sprawl. The extended region covers an area of approximately 13,000 km², or 5,020 mi².

If we take that the extended region adds about 70,000 people/year, it will take less than 20 years to hit 6 million. I would not be surprised if the Quebec government decides to increase the total number of immigrants over the next decade to fetch between 80,000 and 100,000 immigrants annually.

Yeah, I don't think what yuriandrade said about there being "nothing" around Montreal is true.

Though I still don't think that will be enough to catch Toronto.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yeah, I don't think what yuriandrade said about there being "nothing" around Montreal is true.

Though I still don't think that will be enough to catch Toronto.

Yes, I said "nothing" compared to the 2.5 million or so on Greater Golden Horseshoe outside Toronto CMA. I know very little about Quebec's geography, but it seems to me only 200,000 or so could be immediately captured by Montreal de facto metropolitan area.

So even though Montreal eventually starts to grow faster than Toronto, they would be looking a metro area (de facto) twice its size.

[lio45]

If you extend the GGGGH too much you eventually have the apples-to-apples Montreal sphere engulfing Ottawa-Gatineau which at first sight would contribute to reducing the gap rather than the other way around. (Adding London to Toronto would mean adding Ottawa to Montreal; same distance.)

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Yes, I said "nothing" compared to the 2.5 million or so on Greater Golden Horseshoe outside Toronto CMA. I know very little about Quebec's geography, but it seems to me only 200,000 or so could be immediately captured by Montreal de facto metropolitan area.

So even though Montreal eventually starts to grow faster than Toronto, they would be looking a metro area (de facto) twice its size.

The Golden Horseshoe (7.85 million in 2016) is about 10,000km², the extended area (1.9 million in 2016) is about 21,500km². Quebec didn't create a secondary region for Southern Quebec like Ontario did.
Let's say we had something similar to the GGH, but smaller in size. extended area 18,000km² ,
that could adds up to about 500,000 people. a total of approximately 5.5 million people living within a 130 km or 80 miles radius from downtown Montreal.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

If you extend the GGGGH too much you eventually have the apples-to-apples Montreal sphere engulfing Ottawa-Gatineau which at first sight would contribute to reducing the gap rather than the other way around. (Adding London to Toronto would mean adding Ottawa to Montreal; same distance.)

I think we're even closer than London CMA's easternmost point is to Toronto CMA's westernmost point (which is Milton city limits I am pretty sure.)

They're about 120 km.

Easternmost points of Ottawa-Gatineau CMA are about 75-80 km or even a bit less from the westernmost points of the Montréal CMA:

- Lochaber-Thurso limits to Mirabel limits on the north side of the Ottawa River

- Clarence-Rockland limits to Hudson/St-Lazare limits on the south side of the Ottawa River

- Russell Township limits to Hudson/St-Lazare limits a little further inland