Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
Birthrates can change on a whim, this is why projections for more than a few years in the future usually turn out wildly inaccurate.
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Not quite. They are fairly accurate, specially on country-level and in areas past the population transition (Americas, Europe, eastern Asia).
Once the population go below the replacement level, it's a matter of time to have negative growth. As soon the larger cohorts past the reproduction age, even if the population goes back to 2.0, population decline is unavoidable as the following generation is smaller.
Only migration can keep things afloat as it allows the general population to be younger on average (thus higher birth rates, not necessarily fertility rates). But has galleyfox said, the main sources of migration to Texas will be themselves in decline.