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  #3861  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2018, 10:32 PM
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Halifax

Great Halifax is building downtown in 2017/2018 , but go back since say the year 2000 , not a lot happened at all , Winnipeg had a decent amount of activity happening , Airport, BellMts Place , IGF stadium , Museum of Human Rights and a few apartments , condos and a couple of office towers downtown ! In the pipe a 40 story residential downtown and a 45 story condo tower ( fingers crossed on that one ) , plus a few other surprises
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  #3862  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2018, 1:15 PM
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Gotta keep on top of these things. Next page.

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  #3863  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2018, 6:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags_in_the_peg View Post
the Vancouver market for such a place is quite a bit different than the Winnipeg market. I hope it all works out, but high end luxury suites is not in huge demand
Market research has shown a niche desirability for luxury condos/apartments trending, even in Winnipeg. Question is if our downtown is far enough along to convince high earners that the area is established enough for their high-end urban tastes. I'd say it can work... but it is condos, which aren't favoured these days.

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Originally Posted by Urban recluse View Post
That feels forced? Make no mistake: these buildings are not being built because of demand. I do not think it is fair comparing Edmonton to Winnipeg (though I am guilty of doing this in the past) because of oil & gas money, but I would hang my head in shame as a Winnipegger comparing what is happening in downtown Halifax to downtown Winnipeg.
I know this topic has been deliberated for a million posts, but recluse is 100% right. There has not ever been, and based on market metrics, still isn't anywhere near enough office demand to build as much office as TNS has proposed.

Much like SkyCity, where "50% sold" triggers construction, you have to actually sell the next 45% to make any money. TNS may have generated enough leasing activity to fill enough space to warrant a construction start, but has a LONG way to go before it can be proven as a wise business decision.
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Originally Posted by jmt18325 View Post
Right - they're being built because companies routinely throw money away. That's why this is said company's 3rd and 4th building there in less than half a decade.
They are taking a huge risk but have partnered up with a lot of money from other parties, some also with interest in the Jets. They sensed opportunity, and the took a shot... and a shot that developers usually don't take. Hopefully it pays off. They're trying to build some resemblance of an Arena district while the Jets have momentum, and they're trying to create demand. While a bold strategy, not always the correct one. But they are doing a good job.
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Originally Posted by Urban recluse View Post
Robbing Peter to pay Paul. What other companies? It takes decades to fill office space in Winnipeg.
But also this. They are cannibalizing the office market, but that's not their concern and that's ok. Hopefully competition responds well. Artis has consistently improved everything they have downtown, raised rents and hustled (both good). While Harvard initially just dropped rents and handed out space for almost free (horrible for our downtown market), they have since made smart improvements and are raising the calibre of their property.

Hopefully the overall effect will be raised avg rent in our market, setting new revenue norms. THAT would be a good positive effect from TNS.
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Originally Posted by jmt18325 View Post
The idea is that companies in other spaces will take up the spaces at Portage and Main that are being vacated, allowing the other, lower level office space, to be converted to residential, something that is more in demand (especially rental).
ehhhh, not really.

If there are current vacancies pre-TNS, there will be more after. There is no certainty that whoever is supposed to replace office space that has been vacated by future TNS tenants a) believes in downtown yet and wants to be there, or b) is ready to pay higher rent. After all, higher rent space has been occasionally available, and other than a few key properties, empty before.

Artis knows how to fill their spaces, and Harvard has improved, but there still is great space available that remains untouched.
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Originally Posted by Urban recluse View Post
It is not being negative when you base an argument on history. The discussion here has turned to whether or not the entire project will proceed because of a lack of demand. That says a lot.

I can appreciate not converting office space to residential based on structure, but Winnipeg building owners need to get their heads out of their asses and look at this. Why sit with empty space for years, and it does take years to fill space in the downtown. There is currently a lot on the market.
Agreed. However few people are willing to endeavor the challenges of old buildings. It's very hard to pull off.
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Originally Posted by windypeg View Post
Geeze. Halifax is doing great and good for them. Just because we're not doing as well doesn't mean we're not doing all right. Winnipeg is like the D student who's now getting some B's, and Urban Recluse is the stingy Asian dad who just says "Why can't you get straight A's like Halifax?"
Well, also true

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Originally Posted by Authentic_City View Post
Setting aside the issue of demand for office space, you can't be seriously suggesting that Chipman is doing this as some type of civic charity project? Let's all be clear here: Chipman is in this to make money, and he has obviously determined that revitalizing and developing the area around the arena will increase the value of his asset. This is not motivated by pure altruism. What Pollard is doing on Main Street may well be an act of charity, but not a project of this scale.
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Originally Posted by The Unknown Poster View Post
Yes. I have no doubt Chipman loves his city and is community minded. But he's not risking this kind of money for civic pride. Its a win-win.
Whoaaaaa guys.

There is a big gap between demand and charity. And he may or may not "believe" in the city (that word can be pragmatic, not just emotional) but he believes in this project.

TNS is taking on an unprecedented risk by building a mega-project in a slow-growth city where market factors indicate there is little demand. They ARE forcing this project into success, whether selling it like maniacs, somehow getting reputable money sources on board (as well as having seen others back out), cannibalizing demand from downtown, and getting HUGE grants from the city. They've gone as far as declaring it the new centre of the city, which I'm sure P+M does not like at all (real estate wars? "worldstar!")

There are so many factors involved that would have many grade AAA developers stop this from starting.

All of this is to the immense credit of TNS! They are being calculated, but calculated cowboys. It IS to make money, but that doesn't mean this isn't a huge risk. But they've nailed it so far.
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Originally Posted by Biff View Post
I'm not sure I understand this sentiment that because there is low interest in new office space and existing capacity that sits empty in the market, that no new buildings should be constructed. This view makes sense as a whole if you are looking at the better good of the downtown - wanting to have all vacancies full.

If I am a businessman and I believe that I can offer a better product (TNS) and take clients from other facilities and make money I will build a new building. Leasing agents for the buildings loosing tenants might not like this but business is tough. Too much in this town rely on same-old same-old in not improving their investment. Richardson and Artis are bucking that trend by investing significant dollars in upgrades to their buildings. 201 Portage...not so much and they are loosing tenants. So be it.
Yes and no. When dealing in millions, ergo susceptible to LOSING millions (the worst thing is not for a project to stall before constructiuon and die, but for it to be built and fail financially), you don't take the risk if the market isn't there. With some exceptions.

You CAN say you're building a better product, ergo you get the tenants... not incorrect. But you're forgetting one thing; $$$.

TNS is pushing for market rents $5-7 more than the LEADING market rents in downtown. There is a point where "better product" doesn't matter, why would anyone pay so much? There is Class A office space available for HALF the cost. HALF! Do they have a better product? Sure. Twice as good? Not a chance. Better location? Actually, not necessarily.

I mean, I HOPE they do! It's an immense boost to downtown revenue and hopefully indicates slightly less fragile demand than we think. So far they're pulling it off, but because many leases are done in large blocks, one cannot expect a linear trend... they have to make one big deal at a time and hope it works. However, eventually, I believe it will.

Artis and Richardson are doing their damndest to stay the leaders in downtown and keep P+M THE location in Wpg, that's why they're investing. But they won't be near as expensive to lease from as TNS. If they can retain tenants, this could be good for them as suddenly they appear less expensive while remaining an absolute premium property owner.


Meanwhile, TNS and Artis will both bring apartments to the market at likely higher rates than seen in the city.

The difference? Their increase will be in line with market trend and not a monumental leap, because apartments are ultimately trending positively in the city. There IS demand. That's the difference.

However, TNS is doing and saying what NEEDS to be said and done in terms of office rent... I'm just glad it's them doing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban recluse View Post
I did not say it was a charitable act, but to think this tower is needed is foolish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drew View Post
If they secured the tenants to fill this building to the level they require to justify its being built - then how are you to argue it isn't "needed"?

There is obviously a market in Winnipeg for businesses that wanted to be in some swanky new digs - rather than in tired old office space that the owner wasn't keeping up.

Like Biff said, if the owners of the towers at P&M are going to compete with TNS, they need to get off their wallet and improve their buildings. It's safe to say that 360 Main did just that.

A little competition is not hurting anyone here.
You're not wrong, but it's not obvious at all... it was a calculated gamble that MIGHT pay off. Definitely no need, but also a very faint chicken-and-egg scenario... we don't know what national players simply overlook our market inventory. TNS, 360/300, and anyone else would get their attention.
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
^ Exactly. The market has already made the decision as to whether the new towers are needed or not. Some of us are just in a state of denial over it.
Then their wouldn't be excessive vacancy, whether in the market or in TNS (which there still is). There are a few individual players who made a bold move to go to TNS, but that's not normal "market" behaviour, nor is the ensuing vaccuum effect by vacated spaces, Richardson/Artis continual improvements, 201's who-knows-what plan and the war for tenants with TNS, etc...





I'm totally proud of TNS, not shitting on our market either, but this entire thing is an anomaly... and we need those once in a while. But we'll only know after completion if we needed this.
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  #3864  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2018, 7:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Wolf13 View Post
...nor is the ensuing vaccuum effect by vacated spaces...
Just on a Portage Ave. alone, just within a few blocks of TNS, just in the last few years....

- The Alt Hotel and Glass House condos replaced a bunch of office and retail space.

- The Boyd Building tower is being emptied out, and may be turned into apartments or condos.

- The Avenue on Portage turned six stories of office space across a couple buildings into condos.

- The office tower at 238 Portage was turned into condos.

- The Sterling Building office tower (283 Portage) was turned into rental apartments.

I'm probably missing a few.

That's a whole lot of office space disappeared. There is no vacuum. Just the normal turn-over of a normal city.
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  #3865  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2018, 9:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Roger Strong View Post
Just on a Portage Ave. alone, just within a few blocks of TNS, just in the last few years....

- The Alt Hotel and Glass House condos replaced a bunch of office and retail space.

- The Boyd Building tower is being emptied out, and may be turned into apartments or condos.

- The Avenue on Portage turned six stories of office space across a couple buildings into condos.

- The office tower at 238 Portage was turned into condos.

- The Sterling Building office tower (283 Portage) was turned into rental apartments.

I'm probably missing a few.

That's a whole lot of office space disappeared. There is no vacuum. Just the normal turn-over of a normal city.
Doesn't matter. Some of those buildings were not full, others were completed before TNS was even announced. Avenue, before TNS. Centrepoint replaced dogshit, and before TNS. 238 is tiny and was not relevant office space.

A lot of office buildings get converted BECAUSE they are empty or experiencing some degree of vacancy. If they aren't, they're charging too little, because office space generally commands more revenue than apartments. So you're getting rid of poor performers but not exactly displacing many quality tenants into other buildings downtown. If it's a cheap tenant and moves to the suburbs, that doesn't help this argument.

Downtown occupancy rate is still around 8% and only gets reported as "above average" because cities like Calgary get destroyed by resource sways. 8% is "not bad for Winnipeg" territory, not "let's build a superplex" territory.

These conversions are good moves. But the reason they happen is because the office market is weaker, otherwise they'd stay office buildings. They need to adapt to, literally, the market... and they're leaving the office market. So while it reduces, marginally, occupancy, it's a false indicator of strength.

That and TNS is far from occupied.
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  #3866  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2018, 9:30 PM
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None of which negates my point: Four office towers and change disappeared - just within a few blocks - just in a short period of time - is significant even if it wasn't fully occupied.

There is no vacuum. Just the normal turn-over of a normal city.
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  #3867  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2018, 4:32 PM
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The Avenue was vacant for 20+ years and a highly derelict building before the conversion. There have even been pictures shared here of missing windows which turned an upper floor into a pigeon roost, including a petrified pigeon corpse.

The Sterling (283 Portage) went from an "office" building to an apartment conversion without even a blink as it too was almost entirely vacant.

The Dreman Building (238 Portage) was also mostly vacant before being sold as condos, a move that seeming was done of desperation to get some value back out of the building.

Sort of interesting to read some of the comments here as it seems people are somehow looking past all the vacancies on the market.

Just because buildings don't have "For Lease" signs hanging prominently off them doesn't mean there is likely more downtown office space available on the market today than the whole of what TNS is going to build.
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  #3868  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2018, 4:55 PM
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^ As if Thomson Dorfman Sweatman would have ever considered setting up shop in the Avenue or the Sterling buildings...
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  #3869  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2018, 6:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoryB View Post
The Avenue was vacant for 20+ years and a highly derelict building before the conversion. There have even been pictures shared here of missing windows which turned an upper floor into a pigeon roost, including a petrified pigeon corpse.

The Sterling (283 Portage) went from an "office" building to an apartment conversion without even a blink as it too was almost entirely vacant.

The Dreman Building (238 Portage) was also mostly vacant before being sold as condos, a move that seeming was done of desperation to get some value back out of the building.

Sort of interesting to read some of the comments here as it seems people are somehow looking past all the vacancies on the market.

Just because buildings don't have "For Lease" signs hanging prominently off them doesn't mean there is likely more downtown office space available on the market today than the whole of what TNS is going to build.
The common factor is old dated, small floor plate office buildings obviously unsuited to current customer needs. All buildings lend themselves to residential conversion fairly easily. I think we would need to be worried when a significant, newer, larger floor plate office building was being converted to residential. The Ceridian Building is and example - it will be interesting to see what happens there.
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  #3870  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2018, 6:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoryB View Post
The Avenue was vacant for 20+ years and a highly derelict building before the conversion. There have even been pictures shared here of missing windows which turned an upper floor into a pigeon roost, including a petrified pigeon corpse.

The Sterling (283 Portage) went from an "office" building to an apartment conversion without even a blink as it too was almost entirely vacant.

The Dreman Building (238 Portage) was also mostly vacant before being sold as condos, a move that seeming was done of desperation to get some value back out of the building.

Sort of interesting to read some of the comments here as it seems people are somehow looking past all the vacancies on the market.

Just because buildings don't have "For Lease" signs hanging prominently off them doesn't mean there is likely more downtown office space available on the market today than the whole of what TNS is going to build.
actualy the pidgeon mess was mostly on the 3rd floor from a broken window that came off the roof of the hample building and the roof caretaker apartment otherwise it was a time capsle in there

and it was vacant since 1999 when the landlord booted everyone out
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  #3871  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2018, 7:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Biff View Post
The common factor is old dated, small floor plate office buildings obviously unsuited to current customer needs. All buildings lend themselves to residential conversion fairly easily. I think we would need to be worried when a significant, newer, larger floor plate office building was being converted to residential. The Ceridian Building is and example - it will be interesting to see what happens there.
the small offices do have demand but the problem is the parking options drive away that market from downtown
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  #3872  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2018, 3:17 AM
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Originally Posted by WpG_GuY View Post

TREVOR HAGAN / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
Reminiscing about that time there were two tower cranes on site.. haha
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  #3873  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2018, 4:43 PM
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^ As if Thomson Dorfman Sweatman would have ever considered setting up shop in the Avenue or the Sterling buildings...
Well that is true my point is Thomson Dorfman Sweaman leaving 201 Portage for TNS creates a void at 201 Portage. The trickle down effect is offices that might have been in a place like Avenue, Sterling or Boyd move up the food chain, pay less in lease costs, etc until the full trickle up backfills the space at 201. End of the day there are heritage designated buildings that can't find any tenants and are left to rot away due to neglect. See the Albert St hotels or the Times Changed block that is currently being saved. If too much upward pressure is put on the lease market we are going to lose heritage buildings. We can't have it both ways. Just look at the recent discussion on the heritage buildings lost for "tower two" where 201 Portage is or further back on the loss of character from the development of Portage Place downtown.
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  #3874  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2018, 5:03 PM
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Originally Posted by CoryB View Post
If too much upward pressure is put on the lease market we are going to lose heritage buildings. We can't have it both ways.
I respectfully disagree, because we can have it both ways....just not with office space. Everything moves up a level and when a heritage building is not viable as office space it can be reborn as residential - as it is now with the Avenue, Sterling, now Boyd buildings. All seem to be pretty successful and now we have more residence. Doesn't seem doom and gloom to me.
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  #3875  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 4:39 PM
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Only 2 more levels, right?
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  #3876  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 4:46 PM
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Yes, 24 storeys.
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  #3877  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 5:11 PM
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Has anyone noticed the sidewalk is covered over the CIBC sign at City Place, is that for the new skywalk?
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  #3878  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 5:13 PM
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Has anyone noticed the sidewalk is covered over the CIBC sign at City Place, is that for the new skywalk?
I noticed that last night when I left work. That is in the area of where the skywalk is going to be attached.
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  #3879  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 5:25 PM
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Residential tower is pouring the next floor already. I think it was only two days ago they finished moved the forms up from the floor below. Moving very quick!
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  #3880  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2018, 5:37 PM
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Yes, 24 storeys.
Thread title still says 25.
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