Covid induced flight to the burbs and heartland: Long term??

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

I said dense metros have the highest death rates.

This is wrong too. Zero relationship between density and death rates.

[mhays]

You're living in a fantasy land.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

Except for actual numbers. Boswash has the worst rates of covid deaths in America.


Let me know when Alaska (least dense) over takes New Jersey (most dense).

New York and New Jersey had the luxury of getting slammed when Covid first hit the US...when there were less therapeutics and knowledge in how to combat/ treat the virus.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Crawford

If London has high rates, concluding that transit is a vector, absent evidence, is as nonsensical as concluding that rainfall or fish & chips are vectors.

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is dumb; akin to me saying that South Dakota has lots of Covid because of all the church potlucks.

I really do think when this is all said and done, we're gonna find out that fish & chips and church potlucks are in fact major vectors.

[mhays]

When will Alaska overtake New Jersey?

It had much higher new cases yesterday on a per capita basis.

There might be a cognitive issue here. New vs. cumulative is a basic concept most people get.

[iheartthed]

North Dakota Hits Highest COVID-19 Mortality Rate In The World

North Dakota had the highest COVID-19 mortality rate of any other state or even any other country in the world last week, according to a shocking analysis by the Federation of American Scientists.

South Dakota ranked third-worst in the world.

Both states also have the lowest rates of face mask use in the nation.

The rates are what health experts would expect in a war-torn nation — but not in the U.S., the scientists said.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dakot...b6a46646702d74

[Crawford]

It's clearly North Dakota's vast subway network and intense urban crowding driving the death rate.

Thankfully Tokyo's emptiness, wide-open spaces and lack of transit orientation have kept it largely free from Covid.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

Crowded dense settings is the lsat place you want to be if there is an infectious airborne viral outbreak.

Exactly. Which is why the (empty) Dakotas have the worst outbreak on the planet, and why (crowded, dense) Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong have virtually no cases...

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

I'm going off science. crowded confined areas should be avoided.

No, you're not "going off science".

More densely-populated places do not need to be avoided once disease vectors have been cut off and virus spread is under control.

Areas to be avoided are places that have never prepared and have not adequately addressed disease vectors. When transmission is highly active, as it seems to be currently in areas of North Dakota for instance, you are more likely to be infected in a bar there than you are in a place like an NYC subway where the city was completely locked down and thus removed the widespread availability of hosts.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

you're going off of a sample size of 700,000 and over a period of 1 week.



I'm going off science. crowded confined areas should be avoided.

But nobody can avoid them. That's the problem. Yes, a crowded bus or subway car is obviously a potential vector, but so is a grocery store. You may live in a place where you do not rely on public transit, but almost none of us live in a way that we can avoid public spaces that are potential vectors. It doesn't matter if you live in New York City or Iowa City, some part of your regular routine requires you going into public spaces.

The reason why the northeast changed the trajectory is because people here changed their behavior very fast. They wore masks! If the rest of the country had followed suit early on, we could've probably avoided what we're experiencing now. But too many political leaders did not properly assess the risk to their own states, cities, etc., and made decisions based on this pandemic being something that wouldn't ever affect them.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

Queens, NY population 2.3 million. 7,323 deaths.
North Dakota, population 760,000. 769 deaths.

Ohio, population 11.7 million. 5,778 deaths.
Ohio 5x the population as Queens, 1,545 less deaths.

New Mexico, population 2.1 million (close to Queens). 1,236 deaths.
6,087 less deaths than Queens.

Kansas, population 2.9 million (600,000 more people than Queens). 1,266 deaths.
6,057 less deaths than Queens.

Crowded dense settings is the lsat place you want to be if there is an infectious airborne viral outbreak.

are you really comparing back in march, when nobody really knew much of anything about this disease, much less handling it, to what is happening now?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

NYC (the most dense area on the continent, with the highest public transit share on the continent) has by far (its not even close) the highest death rate. the virus comes in waves, New York has left the trough and cases are up 2.25x since 11/1/2020.

avoid crowded confined areas.

It doesn't. You're just making shit up to fit your own narrative now.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

NYC (the most dense area on the continent, with the highest public transit share on the continent) has by far (its not even close) the highest death rate. the virus comes in waves, New York has left the trough and cases are up 2.25x since 11/1/2020.

avoid crowded confined areas.

You can be an uber crowded area in Bismark; people are getting infected at church, restaurants, shopping, large public gatherings and so on.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

are you really comparing back in march, when nobody really knew much of anything about this disease, much less handling it, to what is happening now?

Yes he's also been assuming the same level of undercounting throughout the pandemic which is nonsensical.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

what shit am I making up?

New York
11/1 - 2,087 new daily cases
11/16 - 4,564 new daily cases

NYC population 8.4 million* (lower now) - 24,114 deaths;
302 square miles

Queens deaths: 7,323
Kings deaths: 7,453
Bronx deaths: 5,022
Manhattan: 3,209
Richmond: 1,107

Texas population 29 million, deaths 20,218;
261,797 square miles

California population 40 million, deaths 18,304
155,959 square miles

Florida population 21.5 million, deaths 17,561
53,927 square miles

Illinois population 12.6 million, deaths 11,204
55,584 square miles

Georgia population 10.6 million, deaths 8,967
57,906 square miles

North Carolina population 10.5 million, deaths 4,814
48,711 square miles

avoid crowded, dense, confined spaces.

This is nonsense. You're comparing one location where the virus was spreading at one point in time to another place where the virus was not spreading. It's like saying that it rains more in Los Angeles than London based on a single day where it's raining in L.A. and sunny in London.

[NYbyWAYofGA]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Exactly. Which is why the (empty) Dakotas have the worst outbreak on the planet, and why (crowded, dense) Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong have virtually no cases...

and lets not forget crowded African cities....

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

NYC (the most dense area on the continent, with the highest public transit share on the continent) has by far (its not even close) the highest death rate. the virus comes in waves, New York has left the trough and cases are up 2.25x since 11/1/2020.

avoid crowded confined areas.

avoid crowded confined areas *where the rate of community viral spread is high

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

are you or some of you not doing the same exact thing with North Dakota over the span of the last week of time?

We are not because covid is everywhere now. Covid was not in North Dakota in March of 2020.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah

The first cases of Covid in North Dakota were in early March.

But you know what I'm saying. This does not contradict my point.

[paytonc]

Originally Posted by ardecila

We may look back and see that the pandemic only hastened things that were already happening.

-millennials reaching peak child-rearing age

"Hastened what was already happening" is going to describe almost all of what'll be different going forward.

We knew for a long time that the peak year for births in the US was 1990. That means that those Peak Millennial babies are all 30 years old now -- beyond the average age of first marriage for Americans. Yes, there will still be demand for urban housing from the young and the restless, but there are somewhat fewer Zoomers than Millennials at any given age.

We knew in the 1990s that this would happen, but we refused to allow cities to build sufficient housing to meet the demand. One result is that Boomers largely chose to live out their "active adult" years in their suburban houses, rather than trade down to scarce, expensive urban homes. That locked us into another generation of sprawl.