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  #301  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2014, 9:24 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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No, they only have until the Autumn of 2014. They cannot join later.

Maybe there will be an enlargement later, but it's impossible to tell when. I wouldn't imagine any enlargement before the 2020s in any case, given how conservative the French politicians are.
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  #302  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2014, 11:23 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Some land area and population comparisons.



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  #303  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2014, 12:39 PM
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Comparing with Mitteleuropa.

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  #304  
Old Posted Apr 9, 2014, 9:41 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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And now comparing with East Asia.

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  #305  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2014, 5:15 PM
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Don't care about what the Chinese or the South Koreans say about it, they're just spiteful as I am to the Germans , and Japan is just really terrific. Don't say it's not heck of smart or dense when they still famously manage to keep much of their countryside safe from excessive invading urbanization. They're very right about that. We do need beautiful virgin countrysides, too.
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  #306  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 1:49 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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The German statistical office has FINALLY published post-censal estimates of Germany's population by ages!! It had been more than 15 years since we hadn't had credible population figures by ages for Germany, given that the last census had taken place in 1987 and the German population estimates were notoriously inaccurate (Germany's population was overestimated).

Unsurprisingly, Germany is aging fast, but it has 'just' managed to avoid being branded as the oldest country in Europe, if we use the share of population 65 y/o and older as the criteria here. The post-censal estimates for Jan. 2013 (the latest published) show that Italy was slightly older than Germany: 20.7% of Germany's population was 65 y/o and older in Jan. 2013, whereas in Italy 21.2% of the population was 65 y/o and older at the same date.

Here are age structure comparisons for Germany, Italy, France, the UK, and Spain in Jan. 2013, all based on post-censal population estimates.

Population whose age is 65 and older:
- Italy: 21.2%
- Germany: 20.7%
- Spain: 17.7%
- France: 17.6%
- UK: 17.0%

Population from age 45 to 64:
- Germany: 29.9% (i.e. 29.9% of Germany's population was 45 to 64 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- Italy: 27.8%
- France: 26.2%
- Spain: 26.2%
- UK: 25.5%

Population from age 20 to 44:
- Spain: 36.3%
- UK: 33.7%
- Italy: 32.3%
- France: 31.6%
- Germany: 31.2%

Population less than 20 y/o:
- France: 24.6% (i.e. 24.6% of France's population was less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- UK: 23.8%
- Spain: 19.8%
- Italy: 18.7%
- Germany: 18.2%

Considering 65 y/o as the theoretical retirement age for all 5 countries, and 20 y/o the theoretical year for entering the labor market, the figures above show that Germany will see 24.1 million people retire within the next 20 years, whereas 14.7 million people will enter the labor market. Shortfall (with no immigration and emigration): 9.4 million people.

Italy will see 16.6 million people leave the labor force and 11.2 million enter it. Shortfall: 5.4 million people.

Spain will see 12.25 million people leave the labor force and 9.25 million enter it. Shortfall: 3.0 million people.

The UK will see 16.2 million people leave the labor force and 15.1 million enter it. Shortfall: 1.1 million people.

France will see 17.2 million people leave the labor force and 16.1 million enter it. Shortfall: 1.1 million people.

Germany would need a net migration of +469,000 people younger than 45 y/o every year during the next 20 years to keep its current labor force. France would need a net migration of only +53,300 people younger than 45 y/o every year.
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  #307  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 6:55 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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The 10 "youngest" and "oldest" regions in Italy, Germany, France, the UK, and Spain in Jan. 2013. Only the regions in Europe are listed here.

Population 65 y/o and older:
- Liguria: 27.7% (i.e. 27.7% of Liguria's population was 65 y/o and older in Jan. 2013)
- Saxony: 24.7%
- Saxony-Anhalt: 24.5%

- Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 24.3%
- Tuscany: 24.2%
- Umbria: 23.8%
- Piedmont: 23.8%

- Limousin: 23.5%
- Thuringia: 23.5%
- Castile and León: 23.3%

Population less than 20 y/o:
- Nord-Pas de Calais: 26.7% (i.e. 26.7% of Nord-Pas de Calais's population was less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- Northern Ireland: 26.4%
- Picardy: 25.9%
- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 25.9%
- Pays de la Loire: 25.5%
- Upper Normandy: 25.4%
- Rhône-Alpes: 25.3%
- West Midlands: 24.7%
- London Region (Greater London): 24.5%

- Franche-Comté: 24.5%


After 40 years of depressed German fertility, there are now stark contrasts in the age structures of the neighboring regions at the Franco-German border. Alsace has 23.9% of its population which is less than 20 y/o, whereas only 19.6% of Baden-Württemberg's population is less than 20 y/o. Moselle has 22.9% of its population which is less than 20 y/o, whereas only 16.6% of the Saarland population is less than 20 y/o.

22.1% of the people in Saarland are 65 y/o and older, whereas only 16.8% of the people in Moselle are 65 and older. 19.5% of the people in Baden-Württemberg are 65 and older, whereas only 16.3% of the people in Alsace are 65 and older.

These figures suggest that some very interesting phenomenons are going to take place at the Franco-German border in the coming 30 years (more and more Francophone presence in the German border regions probably, both in terms of commuters, shoppers, and probably also dwellers, as is already the case in Kehl, the German suburb of Strasbourg).

Finally, the future ranking of the European regions should change a lot, as some regions have lots of children, whereas other regions have few children and lots of old people who are going to die within the next 30 years.

The 10 most populated regions of It, Ger, Fr, UK, Sp in Jan. 2013 were the following:
1-North Rhine-Westphalia: 17,554,329
2- Bavaria: 12,519,571
3- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 11,978,363
4- Baden-Württemberg: 10,569,111
5- Lombardy: 9,794,525
6- South East England: 8,724,737
7- Andalusia: 8,393,159
8- London Region (Greater London): 8,308,369
9- Lower Saxony: 7,778,995
10- Catalonia: 7,480,921

The 10 regions with the most people less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013 were the following:
1- North Rhine-Westphalia: 3,320,581
2- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 3,098,719
3- Bavaria: 2,359,433
4- South East England: 2,091,919
5- Baden-Württemberg: 2,066,529
6- London Region (Greater London): 2,038,997
7- Lombardy: 1,834,891
8- Andalusia: 1,833,521
9- North West England: 1,688,317
10- Rhône-Alpes: 1,619,020

If administrative borders remain unchanged, it's quite likely that the Paris Region will become the most populated European region sometime in this century. Lombardy and Catalonia are going to become less and less relevant as economic regions if they don't improve their birth rates, whereas Rhône-Alpes should become one of Europe's top regions (especially if it is enlarged with Auvergne, home of Global Fortune 500's Michelin, as the French government is suggesting at the moment).
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Last edited by New Brisavoine; Apr 17, 2014 at 7:12 PM.
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  #308  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 10:06 PM
SHiRO SHiRO is offline
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It's like immigration doesn't exist at all with you. You're also the champion of projecting short term effects into the (far) future. As well as highlighting hypotheticals that suit your agenda and ignoring the ones that don't.
Your posts could be so much more valuable if you weren't so obviously biased.

Oh and I forgot to mention inventing your own definitions for things that already have (far more credible) definitions.

Those last sentences of the above post are among the most stupid and wishfull thinking things I've read in awhile and ultimately the kind of shit that everyone got tired of on SSC.
And I've already explained to you before that this is not SSC. We don't want city vs city or country vs country around here or agenda driven flamebait threads. Clean up your act and think of more usefull ways to share information around here.
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  #309  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 4:40 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Germany would need a net migration of +469,000 people younger than 45 y/o every year during the next 20 years to keep its current labor force. France would need a net migration of only +53,300 people younger than 45 y/o every year.
If your numbers are correct, that's fascinating. Obviously it's assuming birth rates and the like are constant, but it still means that Germany has very different considerations than France when it comes to in-migration.
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  #310  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 5:29 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
If your numbers are correct, that's fascinating. Obviously it's assuming birth rates and the like are constant, but it still means that Germany has very different considerations than France when it comes to in-migration.
Whether the birth rates remain constant or not has no impact here, because the people who will enter the labor force within the next 20 years are already born.
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  #311  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 7:25 PM
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Whether the birth rates remain constant or not has no impact here, because the people who will enter the labor force within the next 20 years are already born.
You're right, you're only looking at the next 20 years, so doesn't matter.

Maybe it's time to bring back the "Guest Worker" era. You can't bring in 500,000 workers (meaning 1 million immigrants, probably) on an annual basis without completely changing the country.
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  #312  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2014, 4:50 PM
SHiRO SHiRO is offline
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Germany already has a net migration of 300,000-400,000 and rising for a number of years, it's entirely possible if not likely that this number is going to keep rising. Half a million or more is not extraordinary at all.

Off course, according to Brisavoine, Germany is just going to say "well we had a good run, lets not make policy to maintain a healthy labour market and see what happens. Afterall there's this French kid on a Canadian skyscraper forum who's wet dream it is that France will overtake Germany in population so let him have a laugh and throw our country to demographic ruin."
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  #313  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2014, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
You're right, you're only looking at the next 20 years, so doesn't matter.

Maybe it's time to bring back the "Guest Worker" era. You can't bring in 500,000 workers (meaning 1 million immigrants, probably) on an annual basis without completely changing the country.
Absolute bollocks.

First, a million per year is a gross exaggeration. An annual growth of 1% through immigration is nothing special and would not completely change a country.

There's already a recent precedent for this when Spain grew by >10% between 2000-2008 and it did not completely change the country.
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