Quote:
Originally Posted by M1EK
And the small outlying suburbs that are actually in the service area are tiny. Again, Austin's population grew more in absolute numbers than did (Leander + the other tiny chunks in the service area). .
|
But they're way less tiny than they were in 2000. Which means more rail-disinclined voters.
Let's look at the actual math (
I'm using total population as proxy for registered voters, as it's easier to find, but I assure you the end result is the same, same with not using all the suburbs, but that should only help you):
Austin Population 2000: 656,562
Leander Population 2000: 7,596
Manor population 2000: 1,204
Lago Vista population 2000: 4,507
Austin in favor by 50.6% = 332220 in favor, 324341 against
Outlying suburbs against by, say, 80%
2661 in favor, 10645 against
grand total:
334881 in favor, 334986
margin of loss : 105 votes (less than it actually was, so the error in my round numbers is so far favoring you).
Austin Population 2010 : 790,390
Leander population 2010: 26,521
Manor population 2010 : 5,037
Lago Vista population 2010: 6,041
Austin 50.6% in favor
399937 for, 390452 against
suburbs at 80% against
7519 for, 30079 against
grand total:
407456 for, 420531 against
margin of loss:
13075 (way more than before) !!!!!
Austin grew by more total, but it barely favored it before. While the suburbs, which were massively against it, grew at a much larger rate. It would be even worse with today's (2013's) population numbers.